Will Disney's attendance drop?

[captainkidd]

Anyone have any thoughts about 2013? This has nothing to do with the state of WDW. For all we know, 2013 could be a banner year for the shape of the parks. However, I have to assume, if airfare prices stay as they are (or get worse), attendance will decline. Phrases like "I've never seen prices this high" get tossed around a lot, but I can honestly say, in the 15 years I've been paying for my own trips, I have never seen airfare so high. Now, obviously, from an inflation point of view, this only seems natural, but it's more than that. Just 3 years ago, I flew my family of 5 roundtrip from Providence for $600. 2 years ago, from Boston, maybe $1,500 roundtrip. I bought our airfare for July months ago and paid about $1,600. Right now, the exact same flights are $2,700. For January, I paid over $400 per person roundtrip. I just don't see this getting much better, especially given the fact that gas prices have been dropping. If they start to go up again, how will it affect airfare?

I really believe the travel industry as a whole is going to take a massive hit next year. People will drive a reasonable distance, but the average family does not want to drive hundreds or thousands of miles to go anywhere.

 

[OswaldTheRabbit]

We do plan on reducing on vacations in 2013 because of air costs. If they go down we will reconsider but we have been spoiled lately and had a chance to cruise 1 week and go to Disney 1 week for the last couple of years. Two big vacations a year is going to be too much since our airfares doubled between gas prices and moving from a major air market to a small out of the way airport when we moved to KY.

I guess it will be better to save the money anyway...sigh.... But I will miss WDW in 2013.

 

[real mad hatter]

Someone really needs to build a direct Chunnel to WDW for you guys

There already is from Scotland,you enter the tunnel from,oops sorry,Iam not allowed to tell incase it gets too busy.

 

[Lucky]

There already is from Scotland,you enter the tunnel from,oops sorry,Iam not allowed to tell incase it gets too busy.

I'll tell them then. You enter at Hogwart's, but it comes out at Universal, not WDW.

 

[acishere]

We have a trip booked for January 2013 and are looking at booking another one for August 2013. I wish we could drive but coming from the UK i'm worried that my car will sink in the ocean and i'm not the greatest swimmer

Need to get the guys from Top Gear to build one of those car-boats for you.

*Disclaimer: the car-boat they make for you will likely sink

 

[Ex-Floridian]

we are looking into driving down to WDW, gas prices have lowered recently, and airlines like Southwest hedge fuel so hopefully the prices won't get too bad. I do agree that they have risen a lot, it makes no sense for me to fly out of Newark anymore, but Newark might have gotten more expensive because of all the traffic it gets from NYC

Us too. We are driving down in November from MA. Disney looses 4 days of us, but as a family, we enjoy the drive down. We connect from the lost time of everyday stress. Plus see family along the way! Saving over $1500 on airfare pays for our food!

 

[GoofGoof]

I think you described the behavior of most people who don't live near a major airport or live in an area where driving is more effective than flying to make their connection. Pretty common behavior - there is no rule that says you must use the closest airport

Agreed. I live 45 mins from Philly airport but I have flown out of Philly, Newark, Laguardia, JFK and Baltimore which are all less than 2 hours away. I have also flown from smaller airports like Allentown, Atlantic City and even Trenton. If you can find a flight form one of them to where you are going they are usually the cheapest. I have no loyalty to Philly airport. I go with the cheapest option as long as the savings justifies the extra drive.

 

[Hrudey3032]

An internet search of Canadian based travel agents isn't very hard to perform.

I am not sure what your issue is but you have been mean and nasty toward Tigger for no reason. To threaten someone's job and livlehood on a message board is downright childish. I would use Tigger if for no other reason then to just spite you.

 

[draybook]

Yeah, but remember that there's more to airlines than just fuel costs. Let's not forget runway fees, which can really add up if you're not taxiing at your allotted times.

 

[mousehockey37]

I think it all comes down to what people's threshold is. I think for Disney, things such as resorts and tickets, people are a bit more open. With airfare, people are getting less and less patient. Add in the complete pain in the that is air travel, and driving becomes all that much more attractive. The question is to me, will people will be willing to drive to Disney if it's far enough way, or will they drive someplace else for vacation?

This is what I was getting at with OCMD. It may be expensive to go there, and it's no WDW, but instead of about a 20 hour car ride, it's maybe 4 from where I am. Where you live does play into everything. Stay-cations or vacations where people go just a few hours away are on the rise, due to the airfare, like you said. They also have deals for people who are closer, sometimes (it was said that Disney raised the rates for locals as well this year).

If you want to see the mouse, you'll go regardless of the price or how you have to go. If it's an "off year" and you're on the fence with wanting to spend all the extra for driving or airfare, chances are you might just stay closer to home and maybe save up to go to Disney in coming years.

 

[bethymouse]

It's a toss up. People who are closer or just die hard will find a way to get there. For a ton of families, they're going to have to sit down and make decisions. I know living here in Central PA, they are running promos for Ocean City, MD. In the most recent commercial, Rodney the life guard gets on the plane, takes everyone off and wisks them away to OCMD. As I have lived by OCMD for 4 years, I'm well aware of the tourist trap it is, and it's very expensive on its own, but it's a better deal because it's within driving distance.

As I mentioned though, families may have to sit down and reassess when and how often they go to WDW. Families that go multiple times a year may only go once, ones that go annually may have to go bi-annually. Unfortunately for a lot of people, businesses are quick to raise their prices for products, but they're not in any hurry to raise the paychecks that their employees receive. So I have to agree there will be a hit, but it's going to be contained. As someone else stated, if Disney sees that there is a downfall in attendance, they'll do like OCMD is doing now, and promote closer to home to get people to come out.

OMG- OCMd! I grew up in Md and would go there every year. It unfortunately now is a tourist trap ( and a fire hazard in so many areas). I can't believe The Alamo Motel is still in business! That's nuts! But, I'll drive to WDW any year unless it just gets absolutely "out of bounds" expensive. It takes us 14 hours to drive and about 200$ for the gas. I would fly, but the fees, the prices, and the hassles are just way too high ( even if flying only would take 1 1/2 hrs!)

 

[flynnibus]

OMG- OCMd! I grew up in Md and would go there every year. It unfortunately now is a tourist trap ( and a fire hazard in so many areas).

OC isn't any different from what it's been for the last 50 years - it's always been a resort town in that time, not a sleepy beach escape. It's not outer banks or the DE national seashore and has never pretended to be.

I don't think it's really relevant to the core topic though. While a person may rollover to a local vacation when they opt out of the major long distance vacation - they really aren't competing with each other - only really establishing a point of reference for value. When people say 'Will spending 6k really be worth it vs the 2k I'll spend going to the local beach?' its about comparing what they will get for 3x the money.. and less about 'which do I really want to do'.

 

[bethymouse]

OC isn't any different from what it's been for the last 50 years - it's always been a resort town in that time, not a sleepy beach escape. It's not outer banks or the DE national seashore and has never pretended to be.

I don't think it's really relevant to the core topic though. While a person may rollover to a local vacation when they opt out of the major long distance vacation - they really aren't competing with each other - only really establishing a point of reference for value. When people say 'Will spending 6k really be worth it vs the 2k I'll spend going to the local beach?' its about comparing what they will get for 3x the money.. and less about 'which do I really want to do'.

We also used to love Myrtle Beach SC, but look how that's changed over the years! So... we just opt to go a bit further to WDW!