Will Disney's attendance drop?

[captainkidd]

Anyone have any thoughts about 2013? This has nothing to do with the state of WDW. For all we know, 2013 could be a banner year for the shape of the parks. However, I have to assume, if airfare prices stay as they are (or get worse), attendance will decline. Phrases like "I've never seen prices this high" get tossed around a lot, but I can honestly say, in the 15 years I've been paying for my own trips, I have never seen airfare so high. Now, obviously, from an inflation point of view, this only seems natural, but it's more than that. Just 3 years ago, I flew my family of 5 roundtrip from Providence for $600. 2 years ago, from Boston, maybe $1,500 roundtrip. I bought our airfare for July months ago and paid about $1,600. Right now, the exact same flights are $2,700. For January, I paid over $400 per person roundtrip. I just don't see this getting much better, especially given the fact that gas prices have been dropping. If they start to go up again, how will it affect airfare?

I really believe the travel industry as a whole is going to take a massive hit next year. People will drive a reasonable distance, but the average family does not want to drive hundreds or thousands of miles to go anywhere.

 

[Mr.Skunkape]

Disney world attendance in 2013 will be within 1% of what the 2012 attendance turns out to be. With such a large world wide fanbase they will always draw travelers into the parks. I would think that the bulk of the park guest are first time visitors who look at a WDW trip as a right of passage trip for thier children and the crowds will keep on coming as long as children keep being born. WDW is just like a well managed sports team that keeps drawing fans year after year even though they increase ticket prices,parking,food,ect. If people want to go they will pay.

 

[chrissyw14]

we are looking into driving down to WDW, gas prices have lowered recently, and airlines like Southwest hedge fuel so hopefully the prices won't get too bad. I do agree that they have risen a lot, it makes no sense for me to fly out of Newark anymore, but Newark might have gotten more expensive because of all the traffic it gets from NYC

 

[mousehockey37]

airlines like Southwest hedge fuel so hopefully the prices won't get too bad.

In the news here outside of Philly, Delta bought an oil refinery just down the street from the Philly Intl Airport. They're going to be producing their own jet fuel. It's not yet known if that is going to help the airline competition of lowering airfares.

I do see what others are saying with as long as there are kids, Disney will always have guests. I think the main thing though is, with everything getting more expensive, it just seems to be harder to get there, whether you are flying, hiking, driving, swimming, etc to get there.

 

[chrissyw14]

In the news here outside of Philly, Delta bought an oil refinery just down the street from the Philly Intl Airport. They're going to be producing their own jet fuel. It's not yet known if that is going to help the airline competition of lowering airfares.

I do see what others are saying with as long as there are kids, Disney will always have guests. I think the main thing though is, with everything getting more expensive, it just seems to be harder to get there, whether you are flying, hiking, driving, swimming, etc to get there.

yes i also heard that, it will be interesting to see what happens!

but I totally agree, I will always find my way to Disney!

 

[lbrad]

Driving is half the fun!!!

 

[I_heart_Tigger]

I already have many clients with bookings in 2013. Even in the current economy, this was a record year for my company.

I know families that drive from Canada to WDW and back again. Try flying from a Canadian airport if you think US airfare is bad (they have more taxes and fees).

Personally, I don't see an issue.

Ditto - I have 5 different families going next year that have never been before. The airfare isn't a deterrant, if they have the funds to travel a few hundred in airfare doesn't seem to make or break a $5000-$7000 trip.

 

[flynnibus]

In the past, if Disney sees a decline in bookings due to those who don't want to fly, they offer discounts to the drive market (FL, GA, etc) to help fill rooms. I believe offsite hotels have sometimes done this too.

Except this year.. they jacked the local's prices. Kind of kicks yourself in the tail doesn't it in the face of building resistance for long distance travelers?

 

[mousehockey37]

Ditto - I have 5 different families going next year that have never been before. The airfare isn't a deterrant, if they have the funds to travel a few hundred in airfare doesn't seem to make or break a $5000-$7000 trip.

What does the overall cost of their trip have to do with airfare?

 

[bubbles1812]

I don't think we've reached the threshold yet for cost. But we may be getting there. I think the next few years will be very interesting to watch attendance wise and cost wise...though I know that will not be in a good way. Flight costs due royally suck though.

 

[flynnibus]

What does the overall cost of their trip have to do with airfare?

The same reason paying an extra $10k is trivial when buying a 500k house.. but isn't trivial when buying a car. Percentages and how much of a deterrent incremental cost is vs the end game.

 

[I_heart_Tigger]

Ditto - I have 5 different families going next year that have never been before. The airfare isn't a deterrant, if they have the funds to travel a few hundred in airfare doesn't seem to make or break a $5000-$7000 trip.

What does the overall cost of their trip have to do with airfare?

Not sure what you didn't understand? When someone is paying $7000 for a trip they can most likely afford a hundred dollars more per person because it is a very small percentage of increase on their annual trip budget (approximately 6% for a family of four) . However if the trip cost $1000 and airfare went up by $100 it is a larger percentage of their total trip budget (40% more) and therefore may place more of a burden on the payee should airfares rise the same amount for a lesser priced vacation. People that pay for a trip can generally absorb a 6% increase over the total cost of a trip rather than a 40% increase which is why the total cost of the trip is relevant when discussing a hypothetical yet static number such as amount of dollars of increased airfare.

Hope that clears things up.

 

[mousehockey37]

I don't think we've reached the threshold yet for cost. But we may be getting there. I think the next few years will be very interesting to watch attendance wise and cost wise...though I know that will not be in a good way. Flight costs due royally suck though.

Bubbles, that's a loaded thing as well. I've had a topic on here before of "where's the line for too expensive" and all I got was harrassed that everyone's point of "affordable" is different and that Disney doesn't care who comes or goes as long as the money keeps coming in.

I see what you are saying and I believe we might be on the same page, that if you live far enough away, or can't be cramped in a car for hours on end, that flight prices, plus the ever raising resorts, etc prices, will start to deter the lower budget families.

 

[mousehockey37]

Not sure what you didn't understand? When someone is paying $7000 for a trip they can most likely afford a hundred dollars more per person because it is a very small percentage of increase on their annual trip budget (approximately 6% for a family of four) . However if the trip cost $1000 and airfare went up by $100 it is a larger percentage of their total trip budget (40% more) and therefore may place more of a burden on the payee should airfares rise the same amount for a lesser priced vacation. People that pay for a trip can generally absorb a 6% increase over the total cost of a trip rather than a 40% increase which is why the total cost of the trip is relevant when discussing a hypothetical yet static number such as amount of dollars of increased airfare.

Hope that clears things up.

I'll just take the bus and maybe my kid won't be sleeping in the seat that you need.

 

[I_heart_Tigger]

I'll just take the bus and maybe my kid won't be sleeping in the seat that you need.

I have no idea what you are talking about but OK.

 

[mousehockey37]

I have no idea what you are talking about but OK.

Go check the bus etiquette thread and you'll have a VERY clear idea of what I'm talking about.

 

[bubbles1812]

Bubbles, that's a loaded thing as well. I've had a topic on here before of "where's the line for too expensive" and all I got was harrassed that everyone's point of "affordable" is different and that Disney doesn't care who comes or goes as long as the money keeps coming in

I see what you are saying and I believe we might be on the same page, that if you live far enough away, or can't be cramped in a car for hours on end, that flight prices, plus the ever raising resorts, etc prices, will start to deter the lower budget families.

Oh yeah, I totally agree. Everyone has their different line for what is too expensive. However, if the costs keep increasing exponentially like they have, I think there is going to come a point when a huge chunk of people will have a much harder time justifying the cost of a Disney vacation. And sadly, Disney probably doesn't really care. That's the truth. But at my hypothetical threshold where a large number find it prohibitive (again, saying a large group but now all), then that actually could hurt Disney's bottom line. But I don't think we are there yet though maybe sometime in the relatively near future. I've already seen some lower budget families be unable to take the cost sadly So, haha, in essence, I think I just totally agreed with everything you said in your post

Also...there is a bus etiquette thread? LOL. I had no idea such a thing existed.

 

[I_heart_Tigger]

Go check the bus etiquette thread and you'll have a VERY clear idea of what I'm talking about.

I'll pass I only read a couple threads on here and that one doesn't seem that interesting to me...I was just wondering if it had anything to do with my explaination of how flight prices may or may not affect the affordabilty of a vacation but I guess it has nothing to do with that.

 

[HouCuseChickie]

Based on the discussion I have with my family and friends...I could certainly see them taking a hit. Sure, airlines like Southwest may still offer a good 72hr fare sale here and there (the one the other week was like prices of 2-3 yrs ago and before), but for the most part...the prices are INSANE! I refuse to accept that $400 pp from Houston to Orlando, Tampa, Ft. Lauderdale, etc. is a good price b/c quite frankly- it's horrible. You tack on baggage fees and now the DISGUSTING fees to sit together (no way my kids are sitting alone) and it's caused me to officially revolt!

Sure, I'll fly if it's international or if I'm trying to get to the west coast and don't want to see the rest of America along the way, but after my purchase this evening...we're officially embracing THE GREAT AMERICAN ROAD TRIP!

We were going to do this back in 2010 when I couldn't find air below $325 pp but air finally dropped. As a result- we held onto my little Jeep for longer than we'd intended. Well, tonight we went back to a larger SUV...not huge... but larger and more comfy for long distance travel. So, minus some exceptional circumstances...we will be hitting the road to vacay. Not everyone is willing to do that though and many get scared off by the ridiculous air prices...so, I can totally see it hurting WDW and a number of other destinations.

 

[bubbles1812]

Random. but does anyone else do this? Every time I've gone to Disney, I and my family have ended up driving to an airport not in my home state because the flights are usually cheaper. I live in Iowa and have flown at various times out of O'Hare, Minneapolis, and Kansas City. It's actually cheaper just to drive a few hours, park the car and pay for the parking fee, plus the flight from the airports I mentioned than an actually using the airport that is nearest to me. I was just wondering if anyone else in I guess the "smaller states" that don't have the big airport hubs use that strategy? For my next trip it looks like I'm going to be using O'Hare again. Chicago is only about a 5 hours drive from me and it takes about one full tank of gas to get there and one to get back usually.

 

[mousehockey37]

I'll pass...I was just wondering if it had anything to do with my explaination of how flight prices may or may not affect the affordabilty of a vacation but I guess it has nothing to do with that.

Well, affordable varies from person to person. As you are a Canadian based travel agent I have a hard time believing that you are finding flights for a few hundred dollars. As I did some quick searching, flights from Halifax to Orlando are currently running, at the cheapest, 2300 roundtrip for a family of 4. Now, I'm not a math expert, nor am I too great with converting currency, but $2300 isn't a few hundred dollars.