Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown

[RobWDW1971]

I agree totally.

I fully support, for lack of a better phrase but if this is a war, an exit strategy from our current situation that does not rely on a complete elimination of the virus either through vaccine or other means. I believe in cost/benefit analysis.

It is indeed about scale and perspective and where one's, again probably wrong phrase, ROI point is on all this.

I have no model. The best I've found is the one at the bottom of the article below that allows you to manipulate all variables and visualize the outcome for any combo. Set to its most completely unrealistic extreme worst-case settings (each sick person infects 5 others, death rate of 4%) and with no intervention whatsoever it estimates 4-5 million dead in the US (about 1.5% of our population) and about 220 million dead worldwide (2.8% of all people).

I have no idea where my ROI is on this model. I do know, no matter the settings, that it doesn't fall in April. Using a setting of 38 days from today of an aggressive near-draconian intervention, each sick person infects 2.5 others, and a death rate of 1%, you end up with maybe 500,000 in the hospital and about 250,000 dead. Give a little leeway to work and social distancing rules and maintain other settings, you'll get nearly a million dead.

Again, I don't know where my ROI point is on this but it ain't that.

Where's yours?

Opinion | Trump Wants to ‘Reopen America.’ Here’s What Happens if We Do. (Published 2020)

Many could die if we ease up too soon.

www.nytimes.com

The struggle with those models is we actually have other countries like China and South Korea that are ahead of us on the curve and they didn't see anything like those types of numbers so you would have to assume the US spirals out of control far beyond what any other country has seen.

That is going to be a hard sell to the American people.

On the trade-off, since the vast majority of deaths will be the elderly (and those with pre-existing conditions) using an average annual fatalities of about 2.1 million seniors in the US, you would have to be talking about a 25% increase to warrant this kind of economic devastation. So cocktail napkin that is about 500K incremental deaths over a normal year. We are a long way from that at this point.

It's sad, but I think very true that this headline (on page 5 somewhere) two months ago would not have caused the market to even blip:

"CDC estimates abnormally high flu season with introduction of new virus and forecasts 25% increase in elderly deaths in 2020".

Senior living development stocks would have taken a beating, but other healthcare stocks would have bounced.

Can you imagine the shrug a 10% (200,000) or 5% (100,000) increase would have gotten?

 

[TP2000]

West Germany????? What year is this?

Oh, gosh. I forgot the Cold War ended. And we won!

I've fixed it.

 

[TP2000]

TP2000 your mention of Western Europe just made me ponder something I had heard earlier....something suggesting our flu vaccine here could help reduce impact to some extent in Americans....likely nothing but makes me wonder how prevalent the flu vaccines and comparable concoctions of such are in that part of the world? I got email from University of Michigan president just now and gave me a glimmer of a silver lining, such as pharmacology students stepping up to the plate and making hand sanitizer for the UM Hospital, probably the best in Michigan, and then I have to consider how many other educated young minds are perhaps delving into new career paths, not only here but over and over again at our other higher schools of learning.... It gives me hope.....

Here is a bit from it for inspiration....
To no surprise, the U-M community has stepped up in inspiring ways. Pharmacy interns have volunteered to use their talents to make hand sanitizer for our hospitals, and we’ve developed online resources to ensure our classes continue and to allow employees to stay safe while they keep working. Many U-M researchers have stepped up to study critical aspects of COVID-19 disease mechanisms and treatment, and faculty in areas including medicine and public health have provided expertise, data, and projections to elected leaders, helping our society to be smarter and better able to slow the pandemic.

Michigan Medicine has been preparing for weeks to provide world-class care for those affected by COVID-19, opening a special unit for patients, launching in-house testing for the coronavirus, and implementing protections for our health professionals. That preparation is being tested daily, as we treat an increasing number of confirmed patients in our hospitals with a still-limited inventory of protective equipment and necessary supplies.


GO BLUE.....and gleep I never say that as I am alumni of its rival school.....

Goodnight....flapping out to rest up for another day......

I read today that the situation in northern Italy was made exponentially worse because they have over 100,000 temporary workers there who toil in the fabric and clothing factories there, and they all went home for Chinese New Year, and a big chunk of them were from... wait for it... Wuhan. Then in February after the Chinese New Year they were all allowed to come back to Italy because the EU hadn't implemented a travel ban on China. Add in that Italy already has the second oldest population on earth, and the fuse was lit on a time bomb there. It spread into France and Switzerland quickly from northern Italy, as they also didn't close their borders until it was far too late, and the rest is history.

But good for the University of Michigan for fighting the good fight! I always enjoy it when the University of Michigan is in the Rose Bowl each year because they have one of the best marching bands in America (The great State Universities of Ohio and Wisconsin Have Left The Chat...) and their performances at Disneyland and in the Rose Parade are wonderful!

 

[Darkbeer1]

Oh, gosh. I forgot the Cold War ended. And we won!

I've fixed it.

I got to visit East Germany, with a one day visa, shortly before the wall came down at the Krakow border, so East, East Germany. Not a very good place.

My wife on the other hand, back in 1979, snuck into East Germany as a teen, at Berlin. She spent a few hours there before returning to West.

When she got home, the ... hit the fan BIG time. Her father was a Commander on a Nuclear Sub. To get back in, she had to show her passport. The East didn't check. Well, Daddy was asked why her daughter was visiting East Berlin.....

Couldn't miss an opportunity to share that story.

 

[SoCalMort]

The struggle with those models is we actually have other countries like China and South Korea that are ahead of us on the curve and they didn't see anything like those types of numbers so you would have to assume the US spirals out of control far beyond what any other country has seen.

That is going to be a hard sell to the American people.

Yes, if I understand correctly, those types of numbers weren't seen in those countries. That is usually attributed to either aggressive control over the population or aggressive/timely testing of the population respectively. The question has always been are we more like China/South Korea or are we more like Iran, Italy, Spain, New York, New Orleans, etc.

On the trade-off, since the vast majority of deaths will be the elderly (and those with pre-existing conditions) using an average annual fatalities of about 2.1 million seniors in the US, you would have to be talking about a 25% increase to warrant this kind of economic devastation. So cocktail napkin that is about 500K incremental deaths over a normal year. We are a long way from that at this point.

Just so I understand, your breakeven guesstimate is at 500K US deaths? Preventing a loss of that size or greater would be worth the cost we are incurring.

It's sad, but I think very true that this headline (on page 5 somewhere) two months ago would not have caused the market to even blip:

"CDC estimates abnormally high flu season with introduction of new virus and forecasts 25% increase in elderly deaths in 2020".

Senior living development stocks would have taken a beating, but other healthcare stocks would have bounced.

Not so sure about that even with the headline's benign wording that doesn't take into account how this virus is transmitted and (given our litigious times) associated liabilities. That headline just conveys a slice of the pie.

 

[SuddenStorm]

That headline just conveys a slice of the pie.

Isn't that every headline ever written?

 

[THE 1HAPPY HAUNT]

I got to visit East Germany, with a one day visa, shortly before the wall came down at the Krakow border, so East, East Germany. Not a very good place.

My wife on the other hand, back in 1979, snuck into East Germany as a teen, at Berlin. She spent a few hours there before returning to West.

When she got home, the ... hit the fan BIG time. Her father was a Commander on a Nuclear Sub. To get back in, she had to show her passport. The East didn't check. Well, Daddy was asked why her daughter was visiting East Berlin.....

Couldn't miss an opportunity to share that story.

I hear the chocolate is pretty good in Germany

 

[RobWDW1971]

Yes, if I understand correctly, those types of numbers weren't seen in those countries. That is usually attributed to either aggressive control over the population or aggressive/timely testing of the population respectively. The question has always been are we more like China/South Korea or are we more like Iran, Italy, Spain, New York, New Orleans, etc.




Just so I understand, your breakeven guesstimate is at 500K US deaths? Preventing a loss of that size or greater would be worth the cost we are incurring.




Not so sure about that even with the headline's benign wording that doesn't take into account how this virus is transmitted and (given our litigious times) associated liabilities. That headline just conveys a slice of the pie.

But that's why the scale is so important - let's say we are like Italy, using cocktail napkin math again, US is 5.5 times the population so that would be about 45K dead using Italy's current number. US's density is nowhere near as dense as Northern Italy, but just to use that math, that is just the death toll from an average flu season.

Using Iran's numbers scaled to the US, which is a country which certainly can't compare to our healthcare system, we'd be at 9K dead. For Spain, it's 28K comparable.

These are just not dramatic numbers compared to the 2.1M seniors alone that die in a year or 60K dead in a bad flu season. And those happen annually without us closing a single business or having scary panic headlines.

All deaths are sad obviously, but perspective is important.

 

[BrianLo]

Yes, and with testing now being done by the hundreds of thousands across the country each day, that number will rise very rapidly. But as you can see above, it's that mortality rate per 1 Million confirmed cases that is the most important number. Western Europe is really taking the brunt of this for some reason.

Mortality will lag behind new caseload, unfortunately. Western Europe is a representation of people having been sick for a longer period of time. Most of the US cases are relatively recent. You don't develop and succumb to ARDS on day one. BUT I do agree that the proportional representation of mortality is also an indication Western European Nations have no idea how many cases they truly have.

Not to underplay mortality, but ultimately the most important metric is actually simultaneous admission burden (on ICU and wards). That's the curve that is being flattened (theoretically). Mortality rates should largely be fixed, unless the hospital are totally overwhelmed. That's a hard statistic to get ahold of. I have Alberta's but the critically ill number and mortality will continue to climb even if the new cases get under control.

 

[SoCalMort]

But that's why the scale is so important - let's say we are like Italy, using cocktail napkin math again, US is 5.5 times the population so that would be about 45K dead using Italy's current number. US's density is nowhere near as dense as Northern Italy, but just to use that math, that is just the death toll from an average flu season.

Using Iran's numbers scaled to the US, which is a country which certainly can't compare to our healthcare system, we'd be at 9K dead. For Spain, it's 28K comparable.

These are just not dramatic numbers compared to the 2.1M seniors alone that die in a year or 60K dead in a bad flu season. And those happen annually without us closing a single business or having scary panic headlines.

All deaths are sad obviously, but perspective is important.

Scale is important but so are trends. We're not looking at final numbers. Two weeks ago it took four days to double the number of deaths in America. This week it is taking three days. It has been almost 30 days since the first death in America. Yesterday's tally was 1,295. If we don't flatten and reverse this we'll exceed the 60k annual flu deaths in 16 days (Easter) and in 30 days we'll exceed your 500K.

I truly hope at the end of all this you are angry as hell and don't feel what we're doing was worth it.

 

[smooch]

I just want to vent about this whole situation so I apologize if this is the wrong thread to do so or if nobody really cares, I just don't wanna post in the Miscellaneous Thoughts thread so I keep the corona talk away from the other threads. This whole situation is getting really tough for me mentally, and I know I haven't been hit very much personally by the effects compared to the rest of the world; I am not going in to work but still being paid for the couple of days I go in (part time in an office while I go to school), I just helped my dad get set up to work remotely but he is still being paid (financial adviser / regional manager in a PWM firm), my twin brother works in an emergency service so he is still working full time, and my older brother and I are both taking all of our classes fully online now from home. None of us are sick and we don't go out aside from my dad / brother working and for groceries, but I personally haven't left the house in around 12 days. I know it's been longer for some people, but this has just been because of my Type 1 Diabetes I want to be as careful as possible to not get infected because I have heard stories from young healthy diabetics with good control of their sugars getting hit extremely hard by coronavirus. I do so much to fill the time during my days, I spend time with my dogs, started doing yoga again, doing schoolwork, reading a book I've wanted to for a while, play games, watch movies off my To Watch list, watch YouTube, walking my dogs, anything I can think of but I'm still getting cabin fever pretty bad right now. The last few days I've just felt really unmotivated, and I know that my family is currently in a decent position with continued income and a healthy reserve of cash if anything were to happen, we have access to food still, but just hearing about this thing all day every day is getting overwhelming. Even when I turn off the news, if I go on Twitter or watch any YouTube video it gets brought up, my family brings it up, my friends bring it up when I message them, it's so overwhelming. I don't really know the point of this comment so it can get deleted if it isn't in the right thread or isn't adding anything to the situation but I kinda just wanted to check in with everyone here about how it's affecting me because I am ashamed to tell people I know how it's making me feel. I hope everyone here is doing well both physically and mentally, it is a tough time we're all going through and I am really looking forward to when we are going to start to go back to normalcy, even though I know that time isn't that close at all. I like to think of everyone here as a friend so I am truly hoping everyone here is able to stay safe and stay sane.

 

[Disney Irish]

I just want to vent about this whole situation so I apologize if this is the wrong thread to do so or if nobody really cares, I just don't wanna post in the Miscellaneous Thoughts thread so I keep the corona talk away from the other threads. This whole situation is getting really tough for me mentally, and I know I haven't been hit very much personally by the effects compared to the rest of the world; I am not going in to work but still being paid for the couple of days I go in (part time in an office while I go to school), I just helped my dad get set up to work remotely but he is still being paid (financial adviser / regional manager in a PWM firm), my twin brother works in an emergency service so he is still working full time, and my older brother and I are both taking all of our classes fully online now from home. None of us are sick and we don't go out aside from my dad / brother working and for groceries, but I personally haven't left the house in around 12 days. I know it's been longer for some people, but this has just been because of my Type 1 Diabetes I want to be as careful as possible to not get infected because I have heard stories from young healthy diabetics with good control of their sugars getting hit extremely hard by coronavirus. I do so much to fill the time during my days, I spend time with my dogs, started doing yoga again, doing schoolwork, reading a book I've wanted to for a while, play games, watch movies off my To Watch list, watch YouTube, walking my dogs, anything I can think of but I'm still getting cabin fever pretty bad right now. The last few days I've just felt really unmotivated, and I know that my family is currently in a decent position with continued income and a healthy reserve of cash if anything were to happen, we have access to food still, but just hearing about this thing all day every day is getting overwhelming. Even when I turn off the news, if I go on Twitter or watch any YouTube video it gets brought up, my family brings it up, my friends bring it up when I message them, it's so overwhelming. I don't really know the point of this comment so it can get deleted if it isn't in the right thread or isn't adding anything to the situation but I kinda just wanted to check in with everyone here about how it's affecting me because I am ashamed to tell people I know how it's making me feel. I hope everyone here is doing well both physically and mentally, it is a tough time we're all going through and I am really looking forward to when we are going to start to go back to normalcy, even though I know that time isn't that close at all. I like to think of everyone here as a friend so I am truly hoping everyone here is able to stay safe and stay sane.

Its a tough time for a lot of us, some worse than others. So we're all stressed about the situation, some just hide it better than others or have ways to deal with it.

Take some personal time every day to disconnected from the world and decompress. So whether that be taking a walk outside away from everyone or in your room meditating to some soothing music. Just do something that takes you out of the current situation and lets your mind rest. Make sure everyone knows this is your personal time and not to disturb you unless its an emergency. Doing that should help with the stressful and overwhelming feelings you have.

Its a tough time, but we're all going to get through it. Stay safe out there.

 

[Lilofan]

Its a tough time for a lot of us, some worse than others. So we're all stressed about the situation, some just hide it better than others or have ways to deal with it.

Take some personal time every day to disconnected from the world and decompress. So whether that be taking a walk outside away from everyone or in your room meditating to some soothing music. Just do something that takes you out of the current situation and lets your mind rest. Make sure everyone knows this is your personal time and not to disturb you unless its an emergency. Doing that should help with the stressful and overwhelming feelings you have.

Its a tough time, but we're all going to get through it. Stay safe out there.

In times of stressful situations and I know from experience, people tend to not take care their health ( overeating, fast food/junk food diets, smoking, more drinking etc ) and hygiene. Let's take care of ourselves!

 

[Ag11gani]

BeNeLux

This is annoying me, only the B in Benelux is capitalised.

I read today that the situation in northern Italy was made exponentially worse because they have over 100,000 temporary workers there who toil in the fabric and clothing factories there, and they all went home for Chinese New Year, and a big chunk of them were from... wait for it... Wuhan. Then in February after the Chinese New Year they were all allowed to come back to Italy because the EU hadn't implemented a travel ban on China. Add in that Italy already has the second oldest population on earth, and the fuse was lit on a time bomb there. It spread into France and Switzerland quickly from northern Italy, as they also didn't close their borders until it was far too late, and the rest is history.

Italy imposed its own travel ban on flights to and from China on 31st January when they had 2 cases, it obviously didn’t work. And as far as I can see, the France-Italy border is still completely open and Italy is still allowing EU, EEA, Swiss and UK citizens to enter.

 

[Tinkwings]

But good for the University of Michigan for fighting the good fight! I always enjoy it when the University of Michigan is in the Rose Bowl each year because they have one of the best marching bands in America (The great State Universities of Ohio and Wisconsin Have Left The Chat...) and their performances at Disneyland and in the Rose Parade are wonderful!

Yes they are excellent in that arena too....I have a proud member of THAT band on my block. I usually tease Wolverines when they start bragging a bit about their school and mention the colors.....blue and maize, and their superiority....I simply ask what do those two colors together make?!?!? Am greatly missing what would normally be happening right now in the world of college basketball......sigh.....

 

[Phroobar]

Did you know the Tasmanian Devil suffers from a transmissible cancer that manifests as tumors on their faces?

Yeah, rats get tumors like that too. So much for eating grain only.

 

[truecoat]

But that's why the scale is so important - let's say we are like Italy, using cocktail napkin math again, US is 5.5 times the population so that would be about 45K dead using Italy's current number. US's density is nowhere near as dense as Northern Italy, but just to use that math, that is just the death toll from an average flu season.

Using Iran's numbers scaled to the US, which is a country which certainly can't compare to our healthcare system, we'd be at 9K dead. For Spain, it's 28K comparable.

These are just not dramatic numbers compared to the 2.1M seniors alone that die in a year or 60K dead in a bad flu season. And those happen annually without us closing a single business or having scary panic headlines.

All deaths are sad obviously, but perspective is important.

The US on whole isn't as dense as Italy but the east coast is. This area has 50 million people (80% the population of Italy) in a much smaller area.

 

[Darkbeer1]

Disney faces $3.4 billion coronavirus one-two punch at U.S. theme parks, analysts warn

A report from research firm MoffettNathanson paints a grim picture of the financial impact of shuttering Disney theme parks in Anaheim, Florida and around the world amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.ocregister.com

>>Disney theme parks in the United States face a potential $3.4 billion revenue loss due to the ongoing coronavirus closures at the Disneyland and Disney World resorts along with the economic recession projected to follow, analysts warn in a new research paper.


An analyst report from research firm MoffettNathanson paints a grim picture of the financial impact of shuttering Disney theme parks in Anaheim, Florida and around the world amid the COVID-19 pandemic.


“Putting it all together, despite the fall in Disney’s stock price to date, we think the combination of COVID-19 impacts and an ensuing recession will cause unprecedented pain here,” according to the MoffettNathanson analyst report.

Disney’s two Anaheim theme parks, three hotels and outdoor shopping mall remain closed through the end of March due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The shuttering of the Anaheim parks was preceded by closures of Disney parks in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Japan and followed by closures of Disney resorts in Florida and France.


The announced 18-day closure of Disneyland and Disney California Adventure could stretch even longer. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending an 8-week ban on all public gatherings and events over 50 people.

The MoffettNathanson analysts anticipate the coronavirus closure of the theme parks at the Disneyland and Disney World resorts will stretch beyond the end of March.


“We expect the closure to extend for another two weeks into April as the country scrambles to get this virus contained,” according to the MoffettNathanson analyst report.

A one-month shutdown of Disney’s six U.S. theme parks due to the coronavirus outbreak could result in a $1.4 billion loss in revenue, the report said.


The MoffettNathanson report assumes the U.S. economy will fall into a recession over the next six months as a result of lower consumer spending. The resulting impact of a post-COVID-19 recession on Disney’s U.S. parks: $2 billion, according to the report.

The one-two punch of the coronavirus closures and the projected recession could cost Disney’s U.S. theme parks $3.4 in lost revenue, the report concludes.


Disney’s theme park resorts in Shanghai and Hong Kong have been closed since late January while Disney parks in Japan have been closed since late February. The Disneyland Paris resort in France closed March 15 through the end of the month.


The MoffettNathanson report estimates the closure of Disney’s six international parks could cost the company $900 million in lost revenue.


All told, the combined impact to Disney theme parks around the globe could reach $4.3 billion, according to the report.<<

 

[Deleted member 107043]

don't really know the point of this comment so it can get deleted if it isn't in the right thread or isn't adding anything to the situation but I kinda just wanted to check in with everyone here about how it's affecting me because I am ashamed to tell people I know how it's making me feel.

Don't be ashamed! This s h I t is terrifying and you have every reason and right to feel the way that you do. Follow the corona virus guidance and use your good judgement and you'll be fine. It'll eventually pass.

In the meantime stay in regular touch with your friends and family and don't despair because you lack motivation, just do what's necessary to maintain your health and spirit. We're all in this together.

 

[disneylandcm]

I just want to vent about this whole situation so I apologize if this is the wrong thread to do so or if nobody really cares, I just don't wanna post in the Miscellaneous Thoughts thread so I keep the corona talk away from the other threads. This whole situation is getting really tough for me mentally, and I know I haven't been hit very much personally by the effects compared to the rest of the world; I am not going in to work but still being paid for the couple of days I go in (part time in an office while I go to school), I just helped my dad get set up to work remotely but he is still being paid (financial adviser / regional manager in a PWM firm), my twin brother works in an emergency service so he is still working full time, and my older brother and I are both taking all of our classes fully online now from home. None of us are sick and we don't go out aside from my dad / brother working and for groceries, but I personally haven't left the house in around 12 days. I know it's been longer for some people, but this has just been because of my Type 1 Diabetes I want to be as careful as possible to not get infected because I have heard stories from young healthy diabetics with good control of their sugars getting hit extremely hard by coronavirus. I do so much to fill the time during my days, I spend time with my dogs, started doing yoga again, doing schoolwork, reading a book I've wanted to for a while, play games, watch movies off my To Watch list, watch YouTube, walking my dogs, anything I can think of but I'm still getting cabin fever pretty bad right now. The last few days I've just felt really unmotivated, and I know that my family is currently in a decent position with continued income and a healthy reserve of cash if anything were to happen, we have access to food still, but just hearing about this thing all day every day is getting overwhelming. Even when I turn off the news, if I go on Twitter or watch any YouTube video it gets brought up, my family brings it up, my friends bring it up when I message them, it's so overwhelming. I don't really know the point of this comment so it can get deleted if it isn't in the right thread or isn't adding anything to the situation but I kinda just wanted to check in with everyone here about how it's affecting me because I am ashamed to tell people I know how it's making me feel. I hope everyone here is doing well both physically and mentally, it is a tough time we're all going through and I am really looking forward to when we are going to start to go back to normalcy, even though I know that time isn't that close at all. I like to think of everyone here as a friend so I am truly hoping everyone here is able to stay safe and stay sane.

Please don’t feel ashamed about your feelings. This is a difficult and unprecedented time so it’s natural to experience many emotions. I myself am beginning to feel overwhelmed by fears and worry. I work at DLR and we are in total limbo. I’m responsible for my disabled mother and have my own health issues which make me extra vulnerable to the virus. While (I think?) I’m not afraid to die, I am concerned about the future: must outlive mom, and how do I afford to go on without working, how exposed will I be when we do reopen? I know there are answers and that I/we will be fine. The key is not to look too far ahead. It’s just one step at a time. Or as Anna in Frozen 2 said Do the next right thing. My advice is to let your feelings out because stuffing them can make them worse. But don’t believe all your fears. Fear clouds judgement. Be well and take care.