Why Does Fifth Gate Speculation Always Seem to be Out of Left Field?

[Scott M]

I have to say that I'm not a fan of a fifth gate to begin with, but if there were to be one in the future I can't imagine that Disney would consider a villain, beast, or any other narrowly specific theme.

These themes sound too campy to me. Almost as if they're taken directly from some type of video game like Roller Coaster Tycoon.

Scott

 

[Yankeeplex]

I just read on the South Florida Business Journal that over 5700 flights are being taken away from the Orlando route by the major airlines. The article stated that the theme parks in the Orlando area, especially WDW, are going to be hugely affected by these flights being taken away. According to the article, over 35% of guests arrive by flight to WDW. They expect attendance to be severely compromised due to these cuts. With the way things look like they are going, who in their right mind would have a inkling of a thought about a 5th gate until the crap going on gets straightened out.

 

[sknydave]

I'm sure that will be a large factor, but I also believe Floridians and those in nearby states will be more inclined to visit WDW instead of flying to some other destination for their vacation.

 

[The Empress Lilly]

as much as I enjoy reading about the future of Walt Disney World, I can't help but feel a little uneasy when I read about rumors of a fifth gate.

I'm not stating that there will not be one, I'm just not convinced that any of the rumored themes are even close to plausible. A Villains or Beastly Kingdom theme immediately comes to mind.



But please, no more Villain or Beastly Kingdom rumors...They just don't make much sense.

Scott

Not an expert by any means myself, but on gut instinct, I tend to agree. Villain and Beast parks sound more like 'lands' to me, not parks. And both are a bit tired and rusty old concepts / rumours that have been around forever.

More importantly, is a fifth/sixth/seventh really gate the direction WDW is going to take their resort to? There's always room for one more, of course. Plus, if you build it, they'll come and all that.

But my instincts tell me to expect WDW moving and expanding in different directions. Perhaps the market for expensive, unique experiences. Maybe a huge mall / park combo. Entertainment options apart from theme park experiences. Or new incentives that cross the barrier between hotel / theme park. Maybe they'll take its cue from Dubai or Vegas. Anything of the sort, but I'll resist the temptation to go into wild uninformed guesses.

I just think WDW will branch out into new directions and concepts.

 

[ChrisFL]

It seems to me that the only obvious choice for a theme for a fifth gate would have to be something completely different, something along the lines of Tokyo Disney Sea...Something that would compete with SeaWorld. But is that something that Disney is ready to take on? Who knows?

DisneySea and Sea World have nearly NOTHING in common except having the word "Sea" in their name, they are two completely different kind of experiences. In fact, I can't name any similarity between them at all.

 

[marni1971]

With the way things look like they are going, who in their right mind would have a inkling of a thought about a 5th gate until the crap going on gets straightened out.

They`ve been thinking about it for a looong time - but will only proceed when the time is right. And it isn`t. Indeed already planned expansion of the current parks, and a lot of TLC to the existing infrastructure is going to happen before they even think of plussing the 5th gate plan.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

I just read on the South Florida Business Journal that over 5700 flights are being taken away from the Orlando route by the major airlines. The article stated that the theme parks in the Orlando area, especially WDW, are going to be hugely affected by these flights being taken away. According to the article, over 35% of guests arrive by flight to WDW. They expect attendance to be severely compromised due to these cuts. With the way things look like they are going, who in their right mind would have a inkling of a thought about a 5th gate until the crap going on gets straightened out.

As a business, you plan for the future. Not for today. The current flight situation into Orlando won't dictate how Disney plans for the future. The airlines didn't cut back flights because they just felt like it... There's less people paying to fly. Once demand goes back up, they'll add flights back. There are corrections in economies all the time... But you always have to look to the next peak from the valley you're in.

How long would it take to get a park built from, say, greenlight of the project? 3 years? 4? That's a LOT of time for things to get better.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

DisneySea and Sea World have nearly NOTHING in common except having the word "Sea" in their name, they are two completely different kind of experiences. In fact, I can't name any similarity between them at all.

Agreed.

And let me add that I don't believe that Disney Sea will ever be built anywhere else in the world.

We just got back from there about 2 weeks ago, and WOW. Just wow. But the reason that park is so unbelievable is that it's owned by OLC, and isn't subjected to Disney's "accountanteers". The cost of putting that park together had to be astronomical. It had to take one big blank check. The imagineers were able to spare no expense to get that park exactly how they want it... There's no way that would happen here. Or anywhere where Disney was in charge of the budgeting for the project.

And seeing a slimmed down Disney Sea here would be just like WDW's POTC vs. DL's. Once you've been through the bayou, WDW's just doesn't do it for you anymore.

 

[raven]

Agreed.

And let me add that I don't believe that Disney Sea will ever be built anywhere else in the world.

And seeing a slimmed down Disney Sea here would be just like WDW's POTC vs. DL's. Once you've been through the bayou, WDW's just doesn't do it for you anymore.

But historically that's what Disney does. Hong Kong DL, Tokyo DL, Paris DL and the Magic Kingdom at WDW are all based around the original DL in California. Not all are exactly the same but the idea is. Paris got a Studios park similar to WDW and some attractions from Disney Parks around the world have come to WDW. So the idea of a WDW Disney Sea can't necessarily be thrown out just yet. One can still dream. :wave:

 

[Buried20KLeague]

But historically that's what Disney does. Hong Kong DL, Tokyo DL, Paris DL and the Magic Kingdom at WDW are all based around the original DL in California. Not all are exactly the same but the idea is. Paris got a Studios park similar to WDW and some attractions from Disney Parks around the world have come to WDW. So the idea of a WDW Disney Sea can't necessarily be thrown out just yet. One can still dream. :wave:

But all those parks are owned by disney. When the OLC gets involved, you're talking about budget buckets of VERY different sizes. :lol:

Oh, I'd LOVE to see it... But I wouldn't want to see a "cheaper version" of it... And that would be the only way I think it would ever happen.

The only positive point is that a copy would mean they wouldn't have to do any R&D or design work. Which WOULD save a pretty penny. But just knowing what I saw when I went over there, I'd imagine that even with zero R&D and design costs, I bet it would still cost more than any other Disney park has to get built (outside of Disney Sea itself, obviously).

Plus, I think there's some sort of contractual agreement between Disney and the OLC that attractions can't be copied for a certain length of time... Which would prevent a clone being built for a while anyway. Someone mentioned 2012... But they didn't know if that was when a cloned attraction could be FINISHED, or when it could BEGIN. So who knows. :shrug:

I could even reason that I couldn't see a Disney Sea clone ever coming stateside because there aren't enough character tie-ins. That's just the way things are these days. One of the coolest attractions there (that my kids loved) was The Voyage of Sinbad. Great attraction. But I don't think it would ever get built here. No character tie-ins. The only benefit would be the sale of Chandu plushes (which my kids now have FIVE of!!)! :lol:

Edited because I had another thought: One thing that makes Disney Sea great is the extreme level of detail even within reach of the crowds. In Japan, people respect what's around them. No gum stuck places. ZERO trash anywhere you go in the parks. You could eat off the floor. In the states, all that high theming within reach would take an absolute beating. They'd have to make changes to design for that reason alone, I would imagine.

 

[ChrisFL]

Edited because I had another thought: One thing that makes Disney Sea great is the extreme level of detail even within reach of the crowds. In Japan, people respect what's around them. No gum stuck places. ZERO trash anywhere you go in the parks. You could eat off the floor. In the states, all that high theming within reach would take an absolute beating. They'd have to make changes to design for that reason alone, I would imagine.

Agreed, not to mention the morons that will climb around places they aren't supposed to and generally disturb the peace of the park...even some rides at TDL don't have the same restraints that we have at WDW because the guests aren't stupid enough to jump out.

The estimated cost US to build DisneySea was around $6 Billion. Compared to less than $1 Billion for Animal Kingdom or California Adventure (And probably MGM when it opened). The only other projects Disney did anywhere near that scale were probably MK and Epcot.

 

[marni1971]

The estimated cost US to build DisneySea was around $6 Billion. Compared to less than $1 Billion for Animal Kingdom or California Adventure (And probably MGM when it opened). The only other projects Disney did anywhere near that scale were probably MK and Epcot.

Was that TDS price including landfill? Seems an awful lot. I`m told closer to $4 Billion including infrastructure, monorail system and so forth.

WDSP (2002) - $650 million

DLP Disneyland Parc (1992) - $2.2 billion

Disney-MGM Studios (1989) - $300 million for opening day

Tokyo Disneyland (1983) - $1.4 billion

EPCOT Center (1982) - $1.2 billion for opening day + $100 million first year

 

[Buried20KLeague]

Agreed, not to mention the morons that will climb around places they aren't supposed to and generally disturb the peace of the park...even some rides at TDL don't have the same restraints that we have at WDW because the guests aren't stupid enough to jump out.

The estimated cost US to build DisneySea was around $6 Billion. Compared to less than $1 Billion for Animal Kingdom or California Adventure (And probably MGM when it opened). The only other projects Disney did anywhere near that scale were probably MK and Epcot.

$6 BILLION????

Wow, I knew it probably cost a ton, but I had no idea it was that kind of money.

Can I ask where you got that number from? Not that I'm doubting you. I just thought overall that those numbers were held pretty close to the vest, as it were.

I believe it could be that though. I spent 3 days there with my jaw dragging the ground.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

Was that TDS price including landfill? Seems an awful lot. I`m told closer to $4 Billion including infrastructure, monorail system and so forth.

WDSP (2002) - $650 million

DLP Disneyland Parc (1992) - $2.2 billion

Disney-MGM Studios (1989) - $300 million for opening day

Tokyo Disneyland (1983) - $1.4 billion

EPCOT Center (1982) - $1.2 billion for opening day + $100 million first year

That sounds more like it.

Unless like you mentioned that 6 number included landfill. But even then... 6 is a tall number.

 

[sknydave]

Wow... Epcot cost was astronomical in 1982

 

[The Empress Lilly]

$6 BILLION????


I believe it could be that though. I spent 3 days there with my jaw dragging the ground.

You know, that's how we used to walk around in EPCOT 25 years ago. Drop-dead gorgeous, jaw-dropping stuff. It's such a pity these sort of wonders can't be build in the US anymore. EPCOT was the biggest private construction in the world back then, a marvel to behold.

I wonder into how much 2008 dollars $1.2 billion 1982 dollars translates.

 

[teebin]

Is TDS all that? I have never been there, but are all the people who have saying that it leaves everything at WDW in the dust? I cannot believe that it could do that but I am open to comments from those that have been there.

 

[Jodileigh]

Oh, I think something will eventually happen b/c Disney is always expanding, but I agree that it will be more on the lines of a SeaWorld competitor than something like Night Kingdom or whatever. All those rumors are just so far out in left field it isn't even funny. If anything EVER came of ANY of them, I would be truely shocked and amazed. But, Disney Sea would certainly spark my interests!! And be more in line with traditional Disney planning. Time will tell. For now, I think the focus needs to be on what they already HAVE, and improving on things where needed.

Jodi

 

[teebin]

You know, that's how we used to walk around in EPCOT 25 years ago. Drop-dead gorgeous, jaw-dropping stuff. It's such a pity these sort of wonders can't be build in the US anymore. EPCOT was the biggest private construction in the world back then, a marvel to behold.

I wonder into how much 2008 dollars $1.2 billion 1982 dollars translates.

If I typed the numbers correctly.

[SIZE=+1]What cost $1200000000.00 in 1982 would cost $2704444278.25 in 2007.[/SIZE]

so, $2.7 billion... per some vague online historic calculator. Sounds low to me.

 

[Daneault]

You know, that's how we used to walk around in EPCOT 25 years ago. Drop-dead gorgeous, jaw-dropping stuff. It's such a pity these sort of wonders can't be build in the US anymore. EPCOT was the biggest private construction in the world back then, a marvel to behold.

I wonder into how much 2008 dollars $1.2 billion 1982 dollars translates.

Just counting the inflation between 1982 and 2008.. about $2.8 billion.
That's not one bit scientific, because a lot a variable are not calculated like the ∝ of each ressources. So it's probably much higher then 2.8 billion.

Edit: Hehe sorry teebin.. your faster then me