What's Still On and What's Now Off

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I grew up shopping there for everyday groceries and didn't realize how spoiled I was until I moved to PA. It's like growing up going to WDW, then being taken to Busch Gardens - no comparison. Was so thankful when one finally opened along my commute route to work down in MD.

Sounds like York

 

[marni1971]

This is veering too close to political. So I’ll pass on this cheese on the board

More like tin hat territory.

 

[CastAStone]

I wouldn’t be scared to go in...I love wegmans and have no doubt they lead the pack...I’m just getting lazy...

I have an aunt who owned a couple of franchised grocery stores (in the Pittsburgh area...so the chain is easily identified there today) that I can remember talking about how impressive Wegmans was from trade shows back to the 80’s.

It’s consistently the best grocer in the US. Not surprising.

It’s hard to imagine someone creating a Wegmans today. It’s a super-premium grocer...with typically the lowest prices in the market. People compare to Publix or HEB but no one is doing anything like the volume per store that Wegmans does. A typical grocer might sell 3 of something per store per week and Wegmans does 30, no exaggeration. Only Meijer and Winco are even in the ballpark. It’s an incredible business.

 

[UNCgolf]

As I understand it from what I've read, Walt was tired of making the package films that were heavily compromised due to penny pinching and the propaganda films that were not any sort of artistic expression. All it allowed the company to do was barely tread water. So he put all the resources into one last animated film with the type of exacting quality and vision that he expected from something with his name on it; basically betting the company by going out in a blaze of glory rather than fade away.

That film was Cinderella, and the rest is history.

I've actually read Walt was really unhappy Cinderella because they had to use a bunch of cost-cutting methods and he didn't believe it was up to his standards.

 

[VaderTron]

Losing 350k a day? Gotta be way more than that, imo.

Likely depends on if you are including the revenue they are losing or just how many expenses they are incurring beyond what is currently being brought in.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s hard to imagine someone creating a Wegmans today. It’s a super-premium grocer...with typically the lowest prices in the market. People compare to Publix or HEB but no one is doing anything like the volume per store that Wegmans does. A typical grocer might sell 3 of something per store per week and Wegmans does 30, no exaggeration. Only Meijer and Winco are even in the ballpark. It’s an incredible business.

It was built solid and was first class from the start. I had a roommate (in Orlando...ironically ) who was originally From Rochester and his parents/grandparents talked about how Mr. Wegman would greet people in the stores and work the crowd. Knew everyone, never forgot a face, etc.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Likely depends on if you are including the revenue they are losing or just how many expenses they are incurring beyond what is currently being brought in.

That number isn’t meant to be what is seems. $350,000 is half the average room revenue for one night at Dixie landings these days...

Must have meant something else.

Even if it’s just expenses...that doesn’t seem close either. Running a zoo for a day is probably more that...

I hope they aren’t service giraffe ruebens on 192 these days

 

[Calmdownnow]

I don’t have the answers...

I’m just postulating that you can’t really reopen and ask DVC to stay away for any reason...nor would they want to.

DVC has incredibly good data on who its members are, where they live, what their annual income is likely to be, what their age profiles in family groups are. Their websites are clunky, but their data analysis is probably very good, just because of the volume of data they collect. They know what proportion of their membership is prevented from travelling to Florida through travel bans, either internationally or because of infection rates elsewhere in the U.S. ; they know what proportion of their membership may be told to self-quarantine in Florida if they fly in from infection hot spots; they probably have very good data estimates on the number of DVC loans that may be subject to default as unemployment rates rise in regions of the country. The business planning around what demand for rooms is likely to be in the next six months versus what the costs of meeting that demand and keeping all DVC resorts open will be something that means someone in the company will have those answers.

 

[UNCgolf]

It was built solid and was first class from the start. I had a roommate (in Orlando...ironically ) who was originally From Rochester and his parents/grandparents talked about how Mr. Wegman would greet people in the stores and work the crowd. Knew everyone, never forgot a face, etc.

It's amazing they've managed to keep it at that level while expanding into a regional chain. I've been to a Wegman's once, and it was very nice.

I'm not sure how far the Fresh Market has spread now (I know it's all throughout the Southeast), but it used to be an incredibly good premium grocery store. Always had the best meat, seafood, produce, and baked goods along with a great wine selection and other higher end food items. They sold regular snack type foods as well, but you wouldn't find Ruffles or Lay's there; they only had boutique stuff.

It was started in my hometown. It's no longer run by the people who started it, though, and it's grown and spread tremendously over the last 15 or so years. It's also gone far downhill from what it used to be. It's not bad now, but it's not even close to being at the level it used to be.

 

[ToTBellHop]

It was built solid and was first class from the start. I had a roommate (in Orlando...ironically ) who was originally From Rochester and his parents/grandparents talked about how Mr. Wegman would greet people in the stores and work the crowd. Knew everyone, never forgot a face, etc.

I’m from Rochester and miss Wegmans dearly. The crap they call a “grocery store” in CT doesn’t come close.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

That number isn’t meant to be what is seems. $350,000 is half the average room revenue for one night at Dixie landings these days...

Must have meant something else.

Even if it’s just expenses...that doesn’t seem close either. Running a zoo for a day is probably more that...

I hope they aren’t service giraffe ruebens on 192 these days

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but is 350K the average number if you take the yearly profit for P&R and split it across 365 days? No idea, but just a thought that ran across my mind.

 

[CastAStone]

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but is 350K the average number if you take the yearly profit for P&R and split it across 365 days? No idea, but just a thought that ran across my mind.

Parks and Resorts made $350K approximately every 30 minutes in 2019.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

DVC has incredibly good data on who its members are, where they live, what their annual income is likely to be, what their age profiles in family groups are. Their websites are clunky, but their data analysis is probably very good, just because of the volume of data they collect. They know what proportion of their membership is prevented from travelling to Florida through travel bans, either internationally or because of infection rates elsewhere in the U.S. ; they know what proportion of their membership may be told to self-quarantine in Florida if they fly in from infection hot spots; they probably have very good data estimates on the number of DVC loans that may be subject to default as unemployment rates rise in regions of the country. The business planning around what demand for rooms is likely to be in the next six months versus what the costs of meeting that demand and keeping all DVC resorts open will be something that means someone in the company will have those answers.

You’re getting off course...though nothing you say is Incorrect.

DVC is a contract...there are advantages to those that have “home ownshership”...I’m not sure the legality...but it’s far too simplistic to say “open some”


And let’s be frank here: you think they don’t want them back first? The longtime spenders? The ones that cost far LESS to be there because the services are relatively modest and they barely need housekeeping.

They also want to sell more contracts...something not helped by making restrictions on those that have made them insanely rich buying and using it for 30 years.

Dvc will be the highest of priorities when they reload...Who are we kidding?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but is 350K the average number if you take the yearly profit for P&R and split it across 365 days? No idea, but just a thought that ran across my mind.

$350K a day is $128 mil per...That’s chump change.

The other factor that ignores is the ancillary product sales - which is where the profit is made. Everyday closed takes away a lot of near free money from cheap, Chinese merch.

 

[No Name]

Not surprised to see SSE refurb would get cancelled, but kind of sad, because I was actually cautiously optimistic about that.

And it’s unfortunate that they even started the disastrous plan for the middle of Epcot, and even more unfortunate that they won’t be able to execute their vision properly, so it’ll likely be worse than if they had left it alone.

Yeah, no. That’s absolutely still happening. There’s no way they would cancel something that cheap and that far along.

Sure they would. It’s not much of a draw and it provides extra capacity in a park that won’t be needing it for the foreseeable future. These things require ops cost to run, and if they don’t plan on running it, why would they care to finish it? Even if the money is already largely spent, it doesn’t matter. Wonders of Life was already fully operational when they decided they didn’t want to pay the ops cost.

 

[UNCgolf]

Sure they would. It’s not much of a draw and it provides extra capacity in a park that won’t be needing it for the foreseeable future. These things require ops cost to run, and if they don’t plan on running it, why would they care to finish it? Even if the money is already largely spent, it doesn’t matter. Wonders of Life was already fully operational when they decided they didn’t want to pay the ops cost.

Yeah, the work they've currently done is just a sunk cost. They can't get that money back. That doesn't mean they'll finish it, though -- if their projections say the combination of the cost to finish the work and the operating expenses required to run the new pavilion is more expensive than the benefit they'd get by opening it, they're not going to bother spending additional money on it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I know I’m late on this...but I’m glad @MansionButler84 is recovering and I found your Insight very comforting in a difficult, scary time.

I thank you and wish you well. Everyone stay safe and smart...do the right things and stay vigilant.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

It's been very disheartening listening to so many governors, mayors, and yes - even the president - basically forced to beg people to do as their told and then to still see people not following simple instructions.

You can’t post pictures on The Facebook or Instagram if you are just sitting inside and not doing anything

 

[lentesta]

Sounds like @lentesta and touring plans expect everyone to come running back as soon as they open.

Was thinking of moving my May trip to September, but I might just cancel it all together if I'm paying full price for a jammed park with 1/2 the attractions running.

At the moment, I think we're forecasting a ramp-up in demand that lasts a little more than two months. We also think that the parks won't open at anything close to full capacity, and that it'll take a while to ramp those things up too.

 

[lentesta]

@lentesta we're talking about you, any insights?

As far as we can tell, most folks are rescheduling their trips, not cancelling them outright. That'll shift demand to later in 2020 (mostly, we think) and some into 2021.

As far as the return of crowds and normal park operations, we think both of those will happen over a couple of months. That's a guess, of course.