"What's Next" Presentation cancelled.....

[asianway]

So....other than the Dapper Dans preview, do I take it no new news on Limited Time Magic which allegedly starts in three weeks? Should intake that to mean the strategy is not to use it to get people to plan trips around the events, rather have them be surprises?

Oh, and I heard some sour grapes, but @WDW1974 do you know which of the blogger corp were blacklisted from the festivities?

 

[Skibum1970]

A few more thoughts. Carriers are enhanced after launching. The carrier Enterprise from WW II was upgraded with nuclear power. Then, once carriers reach the end of their functional life, they are decommissioned and replaced. A better comparison is WDC versus Ford or GM. They were mature companies when foreign vehicles, specifically Toyota and Honda, moved into the domestic car playground. The domestic automakers could either continue making the old gas hogs or could adapt to what the public wanted. The argument could be made that they didn't adapt to quality control fast enough and people bought more foreign made cars for the higher quality. Today, Ford has adapted better (per JD Power estimates) and GM is closing.

Thus, WDW in particular needs to also adapt to a changing world. They have competition that is really pushing great products into their parks (ie. Cheetah Hunt, Antartica, Transformers, and Harry Potter). If they don't adapt, the attendance numbers will fall and they'll be the company that people say, "I remember when WDW was actually better than Universal."

 

[GoofGoof]

The air carrier analogy is a good one, but not for the reason you think. Once you "finish" your aircraft carrier, your opponents will continue to improve the weapons and defenses on theirs until they reach a point where your ship is no match for theirs. You have to continue to improve and spends money to remain comparative.

This is the truth, but you have to get some use out of the carrier before the next generation one is built. You cant just scrap it and build a new one every year. The theme park business is cyclical as well. This has been an interesting debate and I think there are some good points on both sides. Here's my 2 cents. WDW experienced a period of tremendous growth from mid 80s through 99. See the list in a previous post. That 15 year period resulted in 4 parks, 2 waterparks, an expanded DTD area, a sports complex and a ton of resorts. If you compare what WDW did over that 15 year period to the current growth at Universal it's not very much of a contest. WDW wins in a landslide. The timing is just off. Universal is playing catch up and playing it well. It is not possible for any company to grow its theme parks with reckless abandon indefinitely. While what is going on now with Universal is impressive you are kidding yourself if you think they will just continue at this pace for the next 20 years. They will eventually slow down too. WDW is experiencing an extended lull period. After the major build out they needed some time to let things settle and see how everything works together. Some things that don't work or are less popular needed to go and new things replaced them (or in the case of PI it just went away and nothing really replaced it). Where WDW has failed IMHO is not in failing to build new attractions, but failing to maintaining what they have. Cutting back on maintenance and letting major attractions fall into disrepair is not excusable. I would skip any new attractions for the next 5 years if it meant all major issues were resolved (I know, why can't we have both). Someone mentioned DL going through a lull period followed by some recent growth. This is a good example. My hope is that is on the horizon for WDW. If it happens and we get a bunch of new toys I really hope they maintain them. Nothing will be worse than building Carsland and then watching it deteriorate.

 

[lazyboy97o]

The problem with Walt Disney World's lull in new projects is that it heavily correlates to a decline in maintenance and standards. Significant amounts of cash need to be injected into the Resort just to fix what already exists and bring it up to true Disney standards.

 

[ParentsOf4]

WDW experienced a period of tremendous growth from mid 80s through 99. If you compare what WDW did over that 15 year period to the current growth at Universal it's not very much of a contest. WDW wins in a landslide.

Based on what I've seen, I respectfully disagree with this. Since the mid 1980s, WDW's major projects were DHS and DAK, which the overwhelming majority of people still treat as half-day parks. Look at the polls on wdwmagic and you'll find that WDW's two oldest parks, MK and Epcot, generally are considered its best. While on vacation, many treat MK as a 2-day park, Epcot as a 1-day park, and DHS & DAK as 1/2-day parks. I'm not saying they should but, IMHO, this essentially represents a 33% "growth" at WDW.

Meanwhile, Universal started out with absolutely nothing and built two fully realized theme parks and an expansive shopping and entertainment district. Please don't turn this into another "WDW attractions are better, no Uni's attractions are better" discussion. Instead, my point is that Uni went from nothing to offering serious competition to WDW (people now are taking days out of what used to be their once exclusive WDW vacations to visit Uni) to head up I-4 to check out Universal. Since the mid 1980s, Universal's growth rate is infinity.

Both WDW and Uni have attempted to keep their parks "fresh" by updating or replacing existing attractions. With twice the number of theme parks to maintain as Universal, I suggest that WDW needs to do twice as many updates to keep its parks current. I hope no one seriously would suggest WDW has been being performing twice as many updates as Universal over the last 10 years. WDW is simply aging more quickly than Uni because Uni has been outpacing Uni in terms of theme park enhancements. There is nothing officially announced or seriously rumored at this time to believe the trend will be any different during the next 10 years which, when added to the previous 10 years, will mean that Uni's will have been outpacing WDW for 20 years. TDO is letting Uni slowly catch up. IMHO, WDW will remain #1 for the foreseeable future but the gap between WDW and Uni continues to close.

 

[copcarguyp71]

Geeze...how will we ever find out about new bathrooms and DVC overbuilding now????

 

[Darth Sidious]

A few more thoughts. Carriers are enhanced after launching. The carrier Enterprise from WW II was upgraded with nuclear power. Then, once carriers reach the end of their functional life, they are decommissioned and replaced. A better comparison is WDC versus Ford or GM. They were mature companies when foreign vehicles, specifically Toyota and Honda, moved into the domestic car playground. The domestic automakers could either continue making the old gas hogs or could adapt to what the public wanted. The argument could be made that they didn't adapt to quality control fast enough and people bought more foreign made cars for the higher quality. Today, Ford has adapted better (per JD Power estimates) and GM is closing.

Thus, WDW in particular needs to also adapt to a changing world. They have competition that is really pushing great products into their parks (ie. Cheetah Hunt, Antartica, Transformers, and Harry Potter). If they don't adapt, the attendance numbers will fall and they'll be the company that people say, "I remember when WDW was actually better than Universal."

Not to get into GM/Ford discussion... But what you said about them applied a few years ago but GM isn't closing and they have since rebounded. Old ships were upgraded during the 80s when Congress wouldn't budget money towards increasing the fleet. The admin then chose to equip WWII ships such as Enterprise and Missouri with Phalynx guns, harpoon missiles and tomahawk missiles.

Despite how critical we all are of WDW and TDO, myself included, I don't think it will ever get to the remember when Disney was better point. I think before that happens Burbank will step in and either clean house with TDO or force their hand.

 

[flynnibus]

Some things that don't work or are less popular needed to go and new things replaced them (or in the case of PI it just went away and nothing really replaced it). Where WDW has failed IMHO is not in failing to build new attractions, but failing to maintaining what they have.

But there is a very big difference between letting something sunset because it's run its course and is of less value anymore (Ex: River Country or Discovery Island.. both things superceded by newer, bigger things)

vs...

Running it into the ground through mismanagement (Ex: PI) and then shuttering it because its no longer fitting it's mission.

I personally look at the expansion of the late 80s and 90s.. as a period of expansion.. not normal operations. It's unrealistic for anyone to look back at that and say 'why hasn't that continued' year after year. A organization can not simply keep expanding - the operational overhead becomes unweldly and makes you even more exposed to swings in demand (Ex: 9/11).

But what you can look back and say is 'why aren't we getting that turnover of sunsetting the old.. and upgrading to the new'. You can look at things like taking out 'If you had wings' and upgrading to Buzz.. etc. That is what Disney was pretty good at in terms of pacing itself. But when you have so much property, and so many parks like you do in WDW, that same pacing gets thinned out. What WDW has been lacking is the keeping current and turnover.. instead waiting until something becomes so far behind the curve, the guests notice it as stale.

 

[Skibum1970]

Not to get into GM/Ford discussion... But what you said about them applied a few years ago but GM isn't closing and they have since rebounded. Old ships were upgraded during the 80s when Congress wouldn't budget money towards increasing the fleet. The admin then chose to equip WWII ships such as Enterprise and Missouri with Phalynx guns, harpoon missiles and tomahawk missiles.

Despite how critical we all are of WDW and TDO, myself included, I don't think it will ever get to the remember when Disney was better point. I think before that happens Burbank will step in and either clean house with TDO or force their hand.

I certainly hope that we don't look back on WDW in the fashion that I suggested. I love going there and enjoying the place. I actually don't pay that close of attention to the details (ex. effects that may not be working) that others do as I am simply out to enjoy myself. The trip costs too much to make myself miserable about things not being the way that I want them to be.

Regarding the "closing" comment, I meant closing the gap or gaining ground and not closing shop, in other words, both Ford and GM are getting better. Sorry about that.

 

[GoofGoof]

Based on what I've seen, I respectfully disagree with this. Since the mid 1980s, WDW's major projects were DHS and DAK, which the overwhelming majority of people still treat as half-day parks. Look at the polls on wdwmagic and you'll find that WDW's two oldest parks, MK and Epcot, generally are considered its best. While on vacation, many treat MK as a 2-day park, Epcot as a 1-day park, and DHS & DAK as 1/2-day parks. I'm not saying they should but, IMHO, this essentially represents a 33% "growth" at WDW.

Meanwhile, Universal started out with absolutely nothing and built two fully realized theme parks and an expansive shopping and entertainment district. Please don't turn this into another "WDW attractions are better, no Uni's attractions are better" discussion. Instead, my point is that Uni went from nothing to offering serious competition to WDW (people now are taking days out of what used to be their once exclusive WDW vacations to visit Uni) to head up I-4 to check out Universal. Since the mid 1980s, Universal's growth rate is infinity.

Both WDW and Uni have attempted to keep their parks "fresh" by updating or replacing existing attractions. With twice the number of theme parks to maintain as Universal, I suggest that WDW needs to do twice as many updates to keep its parks current. I hope no one seriously would suggest WDW has been being performing twice as many updates as Universal over the last 10 years. WDW is simply aging more quickly than Uni because Uni has been outpacing Uni in terms of theme park enhancements. There is nothing officially announced or seriously rumored at this time to believe the trend will be any different during the next 10 years which, when added to the previous 10 years, will mean that Uni's will have been outpacing WDW for 20 years. TDO is letting Uni slowly catch up. IMHO, WDW will remain #1 for the foreseeable future but the gap between WDW and Uni continues to close.

If you compare growth in the last 10 years at Uni to the last 10 years at WDW even the biggest pixie dusters have to agree that Uni wins hands down. My comparison is between mid 80s and Y2K at WDW which was a period of significant growth vs the last 10 or 15 years at Uni. If you compare those 2 time periods IMHO WDW had considerably more growth. Disney was adding whole parks (even if you consider them half day parks), 2 great water parks and entire resort complexes. The Boardwalk, Beach Club area is just one good example of this. If you reach back into the late 90s and include the opening of Islands of Adventure and City Walk to present Universal completely reinvented itself. Personal opinion on which rides I prefer aside, the volume of attractions and number of resorts and money spent (adjusted to today's dollars) WDW growth was larger during their growth period. My main point is that I think we are comparing a period of growth at Uni to a lull period at WDW. Sure, Uni is catching up and that is a good thing for all of us. I have no issues with WDW taking a break from huge expansions, my problem is with the maintenance cuts.

 

[GoofGoof]

IMHO, you are making an unfair comparison. You are intentionally selecting one of WDW's periods of greatest expansion, which happens to coincide with Universal's period of greatest expansion, and then arbitrarily comparing it with Universal over the last 10 years. IMHO, you are comparing apples and oranges. Why not:

• Compare WDW vs. Uni growth from the late 1980s to 2001
• Compare WDW vs. Uni growth from 2001 onward

If you make an honest comparison, you'll find Uni holds up very well. In fact, IMHO, Uni at least equals and arguably surpasses WDW during these two periods.

Where WDW completely leaves Uni in the dust, obviously, is the period before the opening of USF. Essentially, WDW is, relatively speaking, coasting on the successes of its then visionary leadership during its first 15 years of operation. WDW is ahead of Uni only because WDW had an almost 20-year jump on Uni. Eliminate the first 15 years of WDW's existence when there was no Uni and, IMHO, Uni really does beat WDW.

That is my point. I am comparing WDWs 15 year huge growth period to Universal's huge growth period. They do not line up time wise so you can't compare them head to head. I remember a time when every trip to WDW had tons of new stuff. Every time you went back there was a new resort or 2 to explore, new rides, new parks. It was like being a kid on Christmas morning. That is how Universal is now. Exciting time of growth. Every trip has new stuff and lots of it. I can't predict the future, but it is conceivable that at some point 10+ years from now the tables will be turned again. WDW will enter a growth period and Universal will be in a lull.

 

[GoofGoof]

USF opened in 1990, IOA opened in 1999. That was Uni's period of greatest expansion, not the last 10 years.

Fair point. I was including the period at Universal from 1999's IOA opening to present day to WDW post EPCOT to 2000. They are both sorta "phase 2" growth and both about 15 years or so.

 

[TP2000]

So....other than the Dapper Dans preview, do I take it no new news on Limited Time Magic which allegedly starts in three weeks? Should intake that to mean the strategy is not to use it to get people to plan trips around the events, rather have them be surprises?

Wow, good point on the Limited Time Magic thing. I'd forgotten all about that, and it's their big 2013 campaign that starts in a few weeks. And they didn't appear to mention it at all in the Around The World presentation. Did anyone hear anything about Limited Time Magic even being said aloud by any Disney exec last week?

That said, the Limited Time Magic campaign seems like a concept that will only be relevant at Disneyland and DCA, where the locals can head over to see the limited magic whatever. For instance, they announced that the Golden Horseshoe Revue show from the 1960's would be returning for one month this winter at Disneyland's Frontierland as part of Limited Time Magic. And the SoCal AP's are frothing at the mouth over that.

But if you've already booked your WDW trip five months in advance, what do you care about Limited Time Magic that may or may not be happening during your Orlando visit? You already paid your money, so why would TDO bother with doing extra temporary stuff?

 

[asianway]

Wow, good point on the Limited Time Magic thing. I'd forgotten all about that, and it's their big 2013 campaign that starts in a few weeks. And they didn't appear to mention it at all in the Around The World presentation. Did anyone hear anything about Limited Time Magic even being said aloud by any Disney exec last week?

That said, the Limited Time Magic campaign seems like a concept that will only be relevant at Disneyland and DCA, where the locals can head over to see the limited magic whatever. For instance, they announced that the Golden Horseshoe Revue show from the 1960's would be returning for one month this winter at Disneyland's Frontierland as part of Limited Time Magic. And the SoCal AP's are frothing at the mouth over that.

But if you've already booked your WDW trip five months in advance, what do you care about Limited Time Magic that may or may not be happening during your Orlando visit? You already paid your money, so why would TDO bother with doing extra temporary stuff?

And made your ADRs, got your FP+, and reserved a stall at the new Tangled bathrooms. #magic

 

[WDW1974]

So, the strategy in Anaheim is to invest $1.1B to revamp Disney's newest North American theme park that everyone agreed was a mess while in Orlando the strategy is to invest $450M in their best theme park while effectively ignoring the other 3 aging theme parks in need of serious makeovers? Do you really think this is a sound business strategy?

Meanwhile, another $1.5B is spent on something that even insiders have a difficult time explaining how to recoup their capital investment, hoping that they will be able to convince a declining pool of customers to spend even more money on what are essentially the same rides and shows from 10 years ago. Does that seem like an economically sound business strategy to you?

No, it doesn't, which is exactly why future leaders of P&R and the WDW Co will have to answer when Rasulo, Staggs, Franklin, MacPhee, Crofton etc are long gone and cashing in all that stock.

Are you suggesting TDO's business strategy is: "We have too many customers. We don't want more."

Did that sound as stupid to you as it did to me? 'Cause Disney wants millions more guests annually ... many ...

You give TDO too much credit. This is the same TDO that had Harry Potter in the bag and let it go because they knew better. If you were to transport WWOHP from Universal to WDW we wouldn't be having this conversation. Universal would be on its last leg while Bob Iger and Jay Rasulo would proudly be announcing WDW's record attendance and profits. Instead, they try to gloss over a 3% decline in WDW occupancy rates while mentioning that "Walt Disney World attendance was down modestly", trying to emphasize instead "the great success of Cars Land, both from a quality and from a quantity perspective in terms of attendance and pricing", hoping Wall Street won't punish the stock too much the next day.

Wall Street is not dumb. They know a theme park's life blood is its attendance. This is why they always ask questions about trends. Increasing attendance is good, declining attendance is bad. It's that simple. It's really hard to increase revenue if your customer base is declining. Instead, you offer "Free Dining" and "30% off Room Only rates" to try to keep it from eroding even further. (Just imagine WDW's numbers if they discontinued those discounts.)

You can raise prices but the remaining customers are not stupid. They will want more for their money. Somehow, I don't think WDW's customer's will get their $1.5B worth out of Next Gen.

Well said, all around!

 

[WDW1974]

What use to be overrun by a million more AP holders who click the turnstiles every week, clog your amenities but don't spend? No, the strategy is to outprice them to keep them out.
What TDO wants is not to desperately attract more guests, but the right guests at the right time spending the right amount of money. The strategy is to spread out the customers over the year, and increase their spending. The former is the reason behind the discounts. The latter behind NextGen.

You are all over the place. First, WDW wants all types of guests and, yes, they absolutely want more APers (guess what? they do in Anaheim too ... they just want them paying more!) Maybe you missed the $399 PAP deal for DVCers?

Disney wants more guests all the time who are spending ever increasing amounts of money while receiving as little new product as possible for that money. THAT is their strategy ... THAT is why they looked like bumbling fools by renaming an event at the 11th hour rather than canceling it because they had absolutely nothing new to announce (someone needs to inform the good folks over on the DIS about that as they seem to be waiting for Cars Land!) ... Everything they do these days is half-arsed and anyone not wearing Pixie Dusted glasses should be able to see that.

 

[WDW1974]

As for WDW, it is considered a well managed asset by Wall Street, it has done very well and held up admirably since 2008, thereby doing very much for the current image of Disney as a safe bet investment. This even without the need for massive investments like other areas of Disney required. Investments, incidentally, that Wall Street asked Disney to drastically reduce, not increase.

Wall Street generally doesn't look at WDW as a stand alone. They look at it as part of P&R and they look at P&R as part of TWDC.

Disney is lucky in that aspect because things like DLR, DCL and even HKDL finally getting out of the red (no Commie jokes, please) have managed to -- thus far -- cover for WDW's treading water for years.

As to spending, you are quite right. If Wall Street had its way Disney would never invest another penny in its parks, but milk them dry and sell them before the udders bled. ... Disney needs dynamic, visionary leaders who aren't afraid to tell Wall Street that they'll sacrifice smallchange now to make billions down the road. They don't have that now.

 

[WDW1974]

So....other than the Dapper Dans preview, do I take it no new news on Limited Time Magic which allegedly starts in three weeks? Should intake that to mean the strategy is not to use it to get people to plan trips around the events, rather have them be surprises?

That's a VERY dumb strategy. I'd plan a trip to DLR just to see the Golden Horeshoe Review ... but I really don't want to show up at WDW and find out it's trot out some lesser known foamhead days.

Oh, and I heard some sour grapes, but @WDW1974 do you know which of the blogger corp were blacklisted from the festivities?

I wouldn't use the term 'blacklisted' ... just culled from the herd ... yes, I know!

 

[WDW1974]

Wow, good point on the Limited Time Magic thing. I'd forgotten all about that, and it's their big 2013 campaign that starts in a few weeks. And they didn't appear to mention it at all in the Around The World presentation. Did anyone hear anything about Limited Time Magic even being said aloud by any Disney exec last week?

That said, the Limited Time Magic campaign seems like a concept that will only be relevant at Disneyland and DCA, where the locals can head over to see the limited magic whatever. For instance, they announced that the Golden Horseshoe Revue show from the 1960's would be returning for one month this winter at Disneyland's Frontierland as part of Limited Time Magic. And the SoCal AP's are frothing at the mouth over that.

Hey, @TP2000. Did they announce when the GHR will be back at DL? I haven't seen any announcements or listing of events at either resort and I'd most certainly be interested in that one!

 

[TP2000]

Hey, @TP2000. Did they announce when the GHR will be back at DL? I haven't seen any announcements or listing of events at either resort and I'd most certainly be interested in that one!

I thought it was happening in February '13. But I checked the Google and now I can't find any dates at all for it, just its big mention in the original press releases, so maybe I made the February part up in my head?