WDW Reopening Estimates

[Shouldigo12]

They are allowing anyone who had a reservation cancelled to bank points into next year if they desire. Typically if you cancel a reservation within 30 days the points go into a holding account and have to be used in the current use year or you lose them. That rule is waived for cancelled reservations. What’s unclear is will they waive the rule for people who cancel due to lack of desire to go (financial hardship, fear of virus, diminished experience, etc.) after the parks open. If I have a room booked the first week in August and the parks open July 6 can I cancel and still bank my points to 2021? That’s one question. The other is what happens if they open resorts but with reduced capacity (say 50% capacity). Most DVCs are booked at near 100% capacity all the time. They need a plan to figure out what to do with the extra people. They could move some of the studio reservations to cash hotel rooms at other resorts maybe It’s a big nightmare.

A nightmare is right. I have a feeling this is one of those situations where no matter how Disney handles it, there's going to be a lot of unhappy people

 

[easyrowrdw]

You are right on the DVC resorts. That’s already a big mess. That also rules out any deluxe resort for the NBA that has a DVC attached to it. Probably a moderate works. They could also go off property. Plenty of resorts nearby that have tons of space and would kill to have the NBA contract in these times.

The Grand Floridian DVC is it's own separate building and there are multiple individual buildings at the regular resort. It has the largest rooms too. That might make it a good option. I guess the amenities are shared, though.

But I suppose that's the same at any resort unless you're closing the entire thing. If they're talking about just the tower at Coronado, then you're in the same type of situation with guests in the rest of the resort. I dunno.

 

[GoofGoof]

A nightmare is right. I have a feeling this is one of those situations where no matter how Disney handles it, there's going to be a lot of unhappy people

Yep and for a few years for DVC. Allowing all of those points to be banked into 2021 will cause a ripple down effect on availability for 2021 and 2022. They are only allowing owners to borrow 50% of their 2022 points in 2021 to make up for the glut of points next year but that inadvertently causes a glut of points in 2022. The only solution to relieve that would be if Disney assigned a certain number of deluxe hotel rooms to DVC and let people use points in 2021 for them. Not the terrible trade in value but regular DVC points. For example a studio hotel room at CR for the points of BLT studio. Either way the issue highlights why they won’t want to not open the DVC resorts at 100% capacity in 2020. The more points you defer the more issue it causes in the future. A mess and a perfect example of why WDW is infinitely more difficult than Universal to open.

 

[peter11435]

Nothing is stopping them putting regular cast in World Showcase.

There are some complications.

 

[GoofGoof]

The Grand Floridian DVC is it's own separate building and there are multiple individual buildings at the regular resort. It has the largest rooms too. That might make it a good option. I guess the amenities are shared, though.

But I suppose that's the same at any resort unless you're closing the entire thing. If they're talking about just the tower at Coronado, then you're in the same type of situation with guests in the rest of the resort. I dunno.

I think they would want a whole resort. Fans would mob a place to get autographs and stuff. If they do CSR it won’t be open at all to regular guests. They would need the restaurants, food court area and most of the convention space so there’s no room for WDW guests. The more I think about it the more it makes sense to have the players stay outside of WDW even if it’s split between multiple sites. It’s logistically easier to take over a whole hotel or 2 for a few months without WDW fallout. The games would still be at Wide World of Sports.

 

[peter11435]

The Grand Floridian DVC is it's own separate building and there are multiple individual buildings at the regular resort. It has the largest rooms too. That might make it a good option. I guess the amenities are shared, though.

But I suppose that's the same at any resort unless you're closing the entire thing. If they're talking about just the tower at Coronado, then you're in the same type of situation with guests in the rest of the resort. I dunno.

Grand Floridian has many shared amenities plus complications regarding transit and proximity to other locations.

NBA would need far more rooms than just what’s in the gran destino tower. CSR would not need to open to guests as the NBA would largely fill it.

 

[jpeden]

I think they would want a whole resort. Fans would mob a place to get autographs and stuff. If they do CSR it won’t be open at all to regular guests. They would need the restaurants, food court area and most of the convention space so there’s no room for WDW guests. The more I think about it the more it makes sense to have the players stay outside of WDW even if it’s split between multiple sites. It’s logistically easier to take over a whole hotel or 2 for a few months without WDW fallout. The games would still be at Wide World of Sports.

Grand Floridian has many shared amenities plus complications regarding transit and proximity to other locations.

NBA would need far more rooms than just what’s in the gran destino tower. CSR would not need to open to guests as the NBA would largely fill it.

On top of that, I imagine that resorts will be operated at limited capacity and WDW demand is going to be soft. I'm sure they could upgrade most of the guests who still want to come and are booked at CSR to deluxe resorts without much trouble. Those that want to reschedule and were affected by any NBA takeover probably would be well compensated by Disney in regards to a re-booking if they didn't accept a resort change.

 

[networkpro]

Survival isn’t the only metric, we don’t know about morbidity yet. I know a previously healthy person that remains on oxygen 6 weeks after hospital discharge suggesting he potentially has permanent lung damage. There are also all those stories of people getting blood clots. Those can cause long term issues too. How about this for a fact: I would prefer not to get this disease and feel the need to take extra precautions to try and avoid it.

Anecdotal evidence, but again it's not the first nor last illness.

 

[GoofGoof]

Grand Floridian has many shared amenities plus complications regarding transit and proximity to other locations.

NBA would need far more rooms than just what’s in the gran destino tower. CSR would not need to open to guests as the NBA would largely fill it.

If CSR I could see them giving the players 2 connecting rooms or a suite if possible. Not all the staff but just the players and coaches. They would also probably prefer a king sized bed. These are large human beings. If they stay on property that makes the most sense. Definitely no guests mixed in. Full security lockdown.

 

[the_rich]

Well they won't need as many rooms as you think. They are talking about 5 games before the playoffs start. So once the playoffs start it cuts the number of teams down drastically.

 

[Purduevian]

There are some complications.

How so? I realize it wouldn't be as cool as people from the actual country manning the pavilions, but it doesn't take a ton of training to work a gift shop or restaurant. Getting Frozen and Gran Fiesta tour would take a little bit of extra training though.

 

[Rider]

How so? I realize it wouldn't be as cool as people from the actual country manning the pavilions, but it doesn't take a ton of training to work a gift shop or restaurant. Getting Frozen and Gran Fiesta tour would take a little bit of extra training though.

A lot of the pavilion stores/restaurants are run entirely or almost entirety by participants (vendors). There are probably issues with Disney not being able to force a takeover of those contracts so they could staff them with cast members.

 

[peter11435]

How so? I realize it wouldn't be as cool as people from the actual country manning the pavilions, but it doesn't take a ton of training to work a gift shop or restaurant. Getting Frozen and Gran Fiesta tour would take a little bit of extra training though.

For one thing there would be future visa complications.

They could certainly staff world showcase differently but doing so will likely mean the end of the world showcase cultural program as we knew it.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well they won't need as many rooms as you think. They are talking about 5 games before the playoffs start. So once the playoffs start it cuts the number of teams down drastically.

There’s also at least one plan still on the table where they would keep the East in Orlando and the West in Vegas through the conference finals then the 2 finalists would meet at one or the other location. If they did that it’s only 8 teams in the East plus staff. Probably only a few hundred rooms tops. Makes much more sense in that scenario to take over a boutique hotel off property and then just play games at Disney.

 

[GoofGoof]

For one thing there would be future visa complications.

They could certainly staff world showcase differently but doing so will likely mean the end of the world showcase cultural program as we knew it.

Who cares about that. I want WDW open now. Universal already announced plans...I have FPs booked for my trip the second week in June

 

[Touchdown]

Anecdotal evidence, but again it's not the first nor last illness.

My example of lung disease is, but blood clots are not. There are studies underway to determine if all Covid pts admitted to hospitals should get full anticoagulation. Clots and Covid are well beyond anecdotal evidence.

 

[The real rescueranger]

A

No, but that’s the practical reality. In exchange for the money we gave Disney, they gave us points to use to book our accommodations. Every day a resort is closed, we are prevented from the use of our ownership. If any resort can open, the reason for keeping the DVC resort closed evaporates.

The Public Offering Statement even states that there is no guarantee there will open parks, or even any parks, so Disney can’t use that as an excuse (nor can owners use closed parks as an excuse to demand compensation).

Once Disney opens a single resort to anybody for any reason, they are admitting it’s safe to open the resorts, so they can’t prevent us from using our ownership.

Actually there is. We own the hotels. If they open up other hotels, it is no longer a safety issue, and by law they would have to honor DVC reservations.

 

[RaveOnEd]

A
Actually there is. We own the hotels. If they open up other hotels, it is no longer a safety issue, and by law they would have to honor DVC reservations.

Actually, Disney owns the hotel. And I don't think there are laws that address DVC resorts wherever they are.

 

[Jrb1979]

Who cares about that. I want WDW open now. Universal already announced plans...I have FPs booked for my trip the second week in June

Didn't they just cancel all stays for the 2nd week of June now.

 

[GoofGoof]

A
Actually there is. We own the hotels. If they open up other hotels, it is no longer a safety issue, and by law they would have to honor DVC reservations.

What if they open the resorts at 50% capacity July 1. All but a few DVC resorts are 100% sold out for most of July. Whose reservations get cancelled to get down to 50%?