WDW Reopening Estimates

When will WDW theme parks reopen to guests?

  • May

    Votes: 34 3.0%
  • June

    Votes: 424 37.3%
  • July

    Votes: 287 25.2%
  • August

    Votes: 124 10.9%
  • September or even later in 2020

    Votes: 269 23.6%

  • Total voters
    1,138
  • Poll closed .
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Touchdown

Well-Known Member
You do realize the virus isn't just going away, right? These restrictions will basically be sticking around until there's an ample therapeutic or some kind of vaccine.

The longer it continues makes this less likely but, if international travel continues to be severely limited and arrivals are tested (limiting the ability of the virus to migrate back from the Southern Hemisphere,) we continue to increase testing and contact tracing, and summer causes the virus to “burn out” in this country where we go a significant time without any new cases in this country that alone could cause restrictions to be lifted. However, each day this becomes more and more fantastical.

That said, there is hope a therapeutic drug will be widely available, a lot of treatments are under going trials and those studies should be released this summer.

That said, I was making a joke/showing my inner optimist. The facts do not allow me to be optimistic in the near future, but a few months from now, there is much more uncertainty.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Agreed. Never understood the resorts before parks thing. Why would people travel to Florida to stay at a WDW resort with parks closed?
At this point anyone staying in the resorts or any resort in general can only help. Harris Rosen of Rosen Hotels stated that the unemployment rate in the USA hotel industry is 51.5%. That is catastropic.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
At this point anyone staying in the resorts or any resort in general can only help. Harris Rosen of Rosen Hotels stated that the unemployment rate in the USA hotel industry is 51.5%. That is catastropic.
Is anyone surprised by that? That should have been expected but if anything is a surprise it's that it's not much worse. That is what happens when you shut down travel and the rest of the economy. It is also delusional to expect it to come back in a couple of months. Disney and Universal will not draw in 2021 what they did in 2019 snd it will take longer for the Orlando Convention Center to come back. Orlando will be hurt by this for at least 3 to 4 years.
 

networkpro

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
The longer it continues makes this less likely but, if international travel continues to be severely limited and arrivals are tested (limiting the ability of the virus to migrate back from the Southern Hemisphere,) we continue to increase testing and contact tracing, and summer causes the virus to “burn out” in this country where we go a significant time without any new cases in this country that alone could cause restrictions to be lifted. However, each day this becomes more and more fantastical.

That said, there is hope a therapeutic drug will be widely available, a lot of treatments are under going trials and those studies should be released this summer.

That said, I was making a joke/showing my inner optimist. The facts do not allow me to be optimistic in the near future, but a few months from now, there is much more uncertainty.

The facts are simple. 95% survival rate for those who get infected without any vaccine. Its not the first, nor the last publically communicable illness that has spread.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I’m not saying Four Seasons for sure just that it’s a better fit for the players. 30 teams, 13 players on the bench plus 4 coaches. 17 X 30 = 510 guys that need high end rooms. The training staff, officials, tv people etc can stay anywhere. I would assume if they do this at Disney they would potentially split up into multiple locations anyway. These guys would be living on site in hotel rooms for a few months at least. They aren’t going to be real happy crammed into 260 square foot rooms. Just my opinion.
260 square foot rooms for an NBA player is probably the size of his main bathroom in his 6 bedroom mansion.
 

VaderTron

Well-Known Member
Your statement about the antibody testing is not true. Go to the FDA site and look at the documentation for the tests. Here is one example https://www.fda.gov/media/137367/download. You will find "endemic human coronavirus" in the list of tests for cross reactivity. I don't know how many times it must be stated that people should look to the sources to find facts and not go with what somebody posts on twitter. The documentation for every single approved antibody or diagnostic test is out in the open on the FDA website for anybody to look at that wants to.

Ummm...ok? Perhaps you should read more news than Twitter yourself. Even reading the entirety of an article you quote should help. Here are three quotes from the document you referenced in your post:

"A positive result may not indicate previous SARS-CoV-2 infection."

"Negative results do not preclude SARS-CoV-2 infection and should not be used as the sole basis for patient management decisions."

"False positive results for IgM and IgG antibodies may occur due to cross-reactivity from pre-existing antibodies or other possible causes."

That last one alone shows that what I said is accurate. There have been numerous issues with the antibody tests. I gave one example: Tests that are not sensitive enough to recognize only SARS-CoV-2, but recognized any similar coronavirus antibodies. Others are false positives that come from poorly manufactured tests, so much so that a saline solution substituted for a blood sample will still result in a positive diagnosis. Other tests are rated well, but the best tests are still only in the high 90 percentile of accuracy. With a large number on the market that have F ratings and many more than have not even been rated, there will be a lot of people getting incorrect information about whether they have had Covid-19 or not.

Here's the latest information on the unreliability of the tests:


Here are some good quotes:

"...four out of nine of those rapid antibody tests examined failed the Mayo Clinic’s testing process for various reasons, including low accuracy and physical problems with the actual tests."

"Theel’s team found that one laboratory test came back with a false positive rate of 17% -- meaning that 17 out of 100 people tested, who were never infected, would be falsely told they had antibodies."

"Experts say a key metric for testing is something epidemiologists called "specificity" -- meaning how well a test identifies who does not have the novel coronavirus. While Theel said that no test is perfect, she said her team looks for tests with a specificity in the upper 90 percentile."

"'There’s a real pressure on manufacturers to bring these to market as quickly as they can, which means they don’t have the same opportunity to vet these things in their own manufacturing processes before they bring them out and make them available to the public,' Dr. William Morice, professor of laboratory medicine and pathology at Mayo Clinic, told ABC News. 'And they’re a business. You have to look at this as a business, and there’s a business pressure to get these tests out as quickly as possible.'"

"'We need to find out which [tests] are good,' Grys said."

"There are currently only 12 antibody tests in the U.S. that have received FDA EUA status, including the four that received the A plus rating in the Mayo Clinic review. But, as of Wednesday, there were over 200 antibody tests available on the market that had either not sought or received such authorization."




So, your definition of the FDA as a source of good information on which antibody tests to procure for oneself is unreliable at best. An "A" rated test still can have a 5% false positive/negative testing range. Only 33% of FDA approved tests are that accurate. The rest are providing 6%-17% or higher false readings, misleading those who take them to believe they had the virus or didn't have the virus when the opposite was true.

Additional research (again, try to avoid Twitter for factual information) will help you find that the antibody test does not tell you anything about the probability of reinfection or the length of immunity if you do test positive. Those are the important issues that one needs to know more than the curiosity factor of whether one has had it or not.


We are much further away from having confidence in a WDW opening than one thinks. We just heard of a family member of our good friends who contracted the disease yesterday in Florida. They had been staying at home for the most part, however they had to go get a procedure done the other day. Before the procedure they were tested and it came back negative and were cleared for the procedure. A few days after the procedure they felt sick and ended up testing positive. It was only when they ventured into a place with other people that they contracted the virus. Despite all the time that had gone by in isolation they still were just as vulnerable.

WDW is not going to be immune from being a spreader. If testing at doctor's offices/hospitals can't keep the virus from spreading to patients, the lower standards of prevention currently proposed for WDW won't prevent it from spreading there either.
 
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beertiki

Well-Known Member
We went out to eat last night. It was an all outside restaurant and bar here in the Keys. Good spacing on the tables, bar stools removed from the main bar, but lined up along a bar 3 feet from the main bar. It was very obvious that there were two types of people at the restaurant. Those that took the virus seriously and followed the CDC guidelines, and the others that just did not give a. At least 15 people in the bar area, loud, moving close to other tables, they would have been annoying before the virus. One table with kids who were up and moving around near other tables, and they were feeding the seagulls. Some guy who got carry out loudly complained to the bartender about the lack of social distancing, and words were exchanged with the loud bar group.

That is the mess that will be coming to Disney when they open. There will be those following the rules, and a large amount of people who will not, and they will have no problem being in your personal space. Just like the bartender, CMs will not confront the rule breakers, it will be other guests who say something. There will be lots of conflict.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
The facts are simple. 95% survival rate for those who get infected without any vaccine. Its not the first, nor the last publically communicable illness that has spread.

Survival isn’t the only metric, we don’t know about morbidity yet. I know a previously healthy person that remains on oxygen 6 weeks after hospital discharge suggesting he potentially has permanent lung damage. There are also all those stories of people getting blood clots. Those can cause long term issues too. How about this for a fact: I would prefer not to get this disease and feel the need to take extra precautions to try and avoid it.
 

G00fyDad

Well-Known Member
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GoofGoof

Premium Member
I don't think there's any chance WDW would delay reopening for several months just to host sporting events that they can't even sell tickets to.

It wouldn't be too hard to take a resort complex like Coronado and lock it down to NBA personnel only who must be tested whenever they decide to leave the campus on their own accord.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...ption-players-leave-potential-bubble-location
I agree with this. The primary reason Disney would be involved in getting the NBA started would be to get games back on ESPN. Any money made from the hotel rooms would be ancillary gain and immaterial compared to the TV advertising revenue. The bubble they talk about does not need to be 1 giant place. They could spread out to multiple hotels as long as there are not going to be regular guests mixed in with players. There are so many hotels locally it would be easy to pick them. They also don’t care if a camera guy or support staff person is infected as long as LaBron stays healthy. If a player gets sick they are knocked out for at least 2 weeks and probably longer. It may even be possible that every player is tested every day. That’s probably the easiest way to ensure there’s not an outbreak among players. The other rumor is the East may play in Orlando and the West in Vegas until the NBA finals. That cuts the players and teams in half at each location.

Whether the players all stay at a larger resort like one of the All Stars or CSR or they spread out amongst multiple Disney and/or non-Disney hotels there is not a reason to delay opening WDW for it. The only thing they may need to delay is announcing an opening date. They need to finalize the NBA contract and then if it impacts Disney hotel rooms cancel on guests at that resort or move them somewhere else. Until they know the NBA is happening for sure and which hotels are impacted they won’t announce a date. Earlier this week the NBA commissioner said they would have a decision in 2 weeks and the below article says players will know more by June 1. That’s probably around when Disney will know for sure.

 

Sweet Thing

Well-Known Member
I've seen this in multiple places, why does everyone assume EPOCT will be the last park to open?

They sent their international program cast home and have not had any type of re-hiring. With all of the construction and a chunk of WS not able to open, what would be the point?
 

carolina_yankee

Well-Known Member
Do they have any suites there? The rooms are bigger with bigger bathrooms. Could be a better fit. AKL would work too. Removed from everything. The only problem is the DVC rooms are probably fully booked.

If the goal is to keep NBA players and support away from others, they cannot stay at any DVC resort. Disney cannot pull DVC rooms to give to somebody else. Destino/CS would make sense, as would YC because that could be sufficiently segregated from the BC/BCV side.

Disney’s pressure with DVC is that unless there is a structural issue (such as from a fire, hurricane, earthquake), when one resort of any kind in any location on Disney Property opens, all DVC rooms need to open, or else they are preventing us from using our ownership.

I’ve heard rumors of Riviera along with Destino, which make sense because of the quality of the resorts and relative isolation, but Riviera has members who own there and they cannot be prevented from booking there, so Disney would have to figure out how to manage traffic flows to ensure paths don’t cross. I doubt someone who plunked down $30k for a Riviera ownership would tolerate being told they can’t use certain pools at certain hours because a sports star or official is using it.

Dirk
 

carolina_yankee

Well-Known Member
It is and that's why I can see Disney not opening til they are done.

If Disney can open to them, they open to DVC. I’m not trying to promote a privileged DVC position, but to point out we aren’t just reservations that can be reshuffled or canceled because Disney changes their business plan. If *anybody* can stay in a Disney resort, then *every* DVC member can (reservation rules and availability providing).

Disney has multiple ways they can create a bubble. After all, Presidents come and speak at Disney while resorts are booked, etc. It won’t be flawless, but that probably isn’t the point. The point would be dramatically reduced risk of infection.
 

Shouldigo12

Well-Known Member
If Disney can open to them, they open to DVC. I’m not trying to promote a privileged DVC position, but to point out we aren’t just reservations that can be reshuffled or canceled because Disney changes their business plan. If *anybody* can stay in a Disney resort, then *every* DVC member can (reservation rules and availability providing).

Disney has multiple ways they can create a bubble. After all, Presidents come and speak at Disney while resorts are booked, etc. It won’t be flawless, but that probably isn’t the point. The point would be dramatically reduced risk of infection.
Is there something in the contract that says all DVC rooms must open if any room on property is open? Genuine question, I'm not familiar with DVC.
 

carolina_yankee

Well-Known Member
Is there something in the contract that says all DVC rooms must open if any room on property is open? Genuine question, I'm not familiar with DVC.

No, but that’s the practical reality. In exchange for the money we gave Disney, they gave us points to use to book our accommodations. Every day a resort is closed, we are prevented from the use of our ownership. If any resort can open, the reason for keeping the DVC resort closed evaporates.

The Public Offering Statement even states that there is no guarantee there will open parks, or even any parks, so Disney can’t use that as an excuse (nor can owners use closed parks as an excuse to demand compensation).

Once Disney opens a single resort to anybody for any reason, they are admitting it’s safe to open the resorts, so they can’t prevent us from using our ownership.
 

Epcotbob

Well-Known Member
They sent their international program cast home and have not had any type of re-hiring. With all of the construction and a chunk of WS not able to open, what would be the point?

On the other hand....I think Epcot would be the perfect park to open first. It’s much more spread out than all of the other parks making distancing much easier. Less packed in ride queues to manage and really the only park that could do a fireworks show and still maintain distancing.

As others have said, they could easily staff the WS with the furloughed local staff. That and some of the insiders have openly questioned why people think Epcot would open later.
 

Shouldigo12

Well-Known Member
No, but that’s the practical reality. In exchange for the money we gave Disney, they gave us points to use to book our accommodations. Every day a resort is closed, we are prevented from the use of our ownership. If any resort can open, the reason for keeping the DVC resort closed evaporates.

The Public Offering Statement even states that there is no guarantee there will open parks, or even any parks, so Disney can’t use that as an excuse (nor can owners use closed parks as an excuse to demand compensation).

Once Disney opens a single resort to anybody for any reason, they are admitting it’s safe to open the resorts, so they can’t prevent us from using our ownership.
Would you be happy if they offered a refund for the year on your points, or if they allowed you to bank them for next year? (To my understanding banking points year to year typically isn't allowed) Because if I'm being honest, I don't see them opening every DVC resort any time soon, regardless if whether owners think that's fair or not. It sucks, but we're in a weird time and the rules for how things usually operate have flown out the window.
Edit: I just looked up banking points and it turns out you can bank them, but I don't know how many years in a row. So I guess I'll ask instead, would you be happy if maybe they gave extra points to be used next year?
 
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GoofGoof

Premium Member
Would you be happy if they offered a refund for the year on your points, or if they allowed you to bank them for next year? (To my understanding banking points year to year typically isn't allowed) Because if I'm being honest, I don't see them opening every DVC resort any time soon, regardless if whether owners think that's fair or not. It sucks, but we're in a weird time and the rules for how things usually operate have flown out the window.
They are allowing anyone who had a reservation cancelled to bank points into next year if they desire. Typically if you cancel a reservation within 30 days the points go into a holding account and have to be used in the current use year or you lose them. That rule is waived for cancelled reservations. What’s unclear is will they waive the rule for people who cancel due to lack of desire to go (financial hardship, fear of virus, diminished experience, etc.) after the parks open. If I have a room booked the first week in August and the parks open July 6 can I cancel and still bank my points to 2021? That’s one question. The other is what happens if they open resorts but with reduced capacity (say 50% capacity). Most DVCs are booked at near 100% capacity all the time. They need a plan to figure out what to do with the extra people. They could move some of the studio reservations to cash hotel rooms at other resorts maybe It’s a big nightmare.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
If the goal is to keep NBA players and support away from others, they cannot stay at any DVC resort. Disney cannot pull DVC rooms to give to somebody else. Destino/CS would make sense, as would YC because that could be sufficiently segregated from the BC/BCV side.

Disney’s pressure with DVC is that unless there is a structural issue (such as from a fire, hurricane, earthquake), when one resort of any kind in any location on Disney Property opens, all DVC rooms need to open, or else they are preventing us from using our ownership.

I’ve heard rumors of Riviera along with Destino, which make sense because of the quality of the resorts and relative isolation, but Riviera has members who own there and they cannot be prevented from booking there, so Disney would have to figure out how to manage traffic flows to ensure paths don’t cross. I doubt someone who plunked down $30k for a Riviera ownership would tolerate being told they can’t use certain pools at certain hours because a sports star or official is using it.

Dirk
You are right on the DVC resorts. That’s already a big mess. That also rules out any deluxe resort for the NBA that has a DVC attached to it. Probably a moderate works. They could also go off property. Plenty of resorts nearby that have tons of space and would kill to have the NBA contract in these times.
 
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