WDW Reopening Estimates

[CastAStone]

That's 1% which is much better than the 2% or more they suspected. The 1% is still much higher than the flu though.

Save for the epidemic flus like Spanish Flu of 1918, yes, it is.

 

[MagicWDI]

All very true, but I don't believe the death rate is as high as it appears since they esitmate that 20% or more of the population may have had the virus to this point and never even known it. It's going to be hard to make a business decision on a possible second wave since no one knows for sure when it may be and how hard it will hit. If our testing has improved as they predict we should be able to isolate the case and lessen the spread much quicker than we were in the beginning stages of the virus.

This is why we need to do more antibody testing on top of more molecular testing to get more accurate data.

And I misspoke earlier. When I mentioned death rate, I was referring to number of daily Covid deaths, not mortality level of those infected.

 

[mhaftman7]

That's 1% which is much better than the 2% or more they suspected. The 1% is still much higher than the flu though.

1%? 20k divided by 8.3M is just under 0.25%.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

1%? 20k divided by 8.3M is just under 0.25%.

Yeah maybe they left something out or worded something wrong? That math doesn't work.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Right or wrong, left or right - The moment WDW opens, there will be those who cry foul and others who cry joy, regardless of the current status of covid.

 

[CastAStone]

1%? 20k divided by 8.3M is just under 0.25%.

You need to read the entire post.

20% of residents have had COVID19 So 20,000/(.2*8,300,000) = 20,000/1,660,000 = 1.2%

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

You need to read the entire post.

20% of residents have had COVID19 So 20,000/(.2*8,300,000) = 20,000/1,660,000 = 1.2%

I guess that’s what they call “applied mathematics.”

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

You need to read the entire post.

20% of residents have had COVID19 So 20,000/(.2*8,300,000) = 20,000/1,660,000 = 1.2%

So this is to show percentage of people that got it and not the mortality rate? Ok. I don't think we were expecting that.

 

[brianstl]

You need to read the entire post.

20% of residents have had COVID19 So 20,000/(.2*8,300,000) = 20,000/1,660,000 = 1.2%

My guess is the 1.2% percent is that high because the infection rate in nursing homes and retirement communities is significantly higher right now than the infection rate in the general population overall.

 

[TDogg76]

Disney has to think about liability. Sure, you can say come in at your own risk, but we know Disney doesn’t want a swell of outbreaks that occurred in their parks! They will do a slow burn! I originally thought the parks wouldn’t open at full capacity until Labor Day. I now think Labor Day is when they will start the trial with a January 2021 target date for full implementation!

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Disney has to think about liability. Sure, you can say come in at your own risk, but we know Disney doesn’t want a swell of outbreaks that occurred in their parks! They will do a slow burn! I originally thought the parks wouldn’t open at full capacity until Labor Day. I now think Labor Day is when they will start the trial with a January 2021 target date for full implementation!

August is more realistic...school will likely start earlier to make up for lost time, so they can automatically count on lower attendance.

 

[Herdman]

1%? 20k divided by 8.3M is just under 0.25%.

I was referring to the posters comment about 1 of 100 in NY, which I think he might have deleted. haha

 

[Thelazer]

It sure does. "Disney open on the 4th with no fireworks, no parades, no nothing." Because of this, I would guess after the 4th.

There will be a "parade" and likely fireworks one night a week. See Shanghai's social distance markers for parades and shows if you want to get a preview.

 

[mhaftman7]

Disney has to think about liability. Sure, you can say come in at your own risk, but we know Disney doesn’t want a swell of outbreaks that occurred in their parks! They will do a slow burn! I originally thought the parks wouldn’t open at full capacity until Labor Day. I now think Labor Day is when they will start the trial with a January 2021 target date for full implementation!

Any outbreak that stems back to people who have recently been to Disney doesn’t necessarily mean it occurred in the park? What if they went to Universal? Used an Uber/Lyft, flew in a plane to/from, etc. Not one business any of any type is going to worry about an outbreak because there isn’t anything to strictly say that is where they got it. The only outbreak they’d worry about is with Cast Members, but the Union agreement eases that for the most part.

I don’t think that Disney can afford to wait 3.5 months to start a “slow burn”. Mid-to-late June for trial runs, with reduced capacity in July.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

When WDW does open, does anyone think there’s a chance resort amenities and entertainment will be improved or expanded? More kids events, more boat rentals, more evening shows? This would be a great way to “pull” guests back to the resorts from the parks for better distancing.

 

[Epcotbob]

Any outbreak that stems back to people who have recently been to Disney doesn’t necessarily mean it occurred in the park? What if they went to Universal? Used an Uber/Lyft, flew in a plane to/from, etc. Not one business any of any type is going to worry about an outbreak because there isn’t anything to strictly say that is where they got it. The only outbreak they’d worry about is with Cast Members, but the Union agreement eases that for the most part.

I don’t think that Disney can afford to wait 3.5 months to start a “slow burn”. Mid-to-late June for trial runs, with reduced capacity in July.

Agreed, they have a business to get back up and running, there is no way they are sit back just do it leisurely over 6 months.

 

[Cmdr_Crimson]

I still stand by Eeyore's estimate...

 

[TrojanUSC]

Any outbreak that stems back to people who have recently been to Disney doesn’t necessarily mean it occurred in the park? What if they went to Universal? Used an Uber/Lyft, flew in a plane to/from, etc. Not one business any of any type is going to worry about an outbreak because there isn’t anything to strictly say that is where they got it. The only outbreak they’d worry about is with Cast Members, but the Union agreement eases that for the most part.

I don’t think that Disney can afford to wait 3.5 months to start a “slow burn”. Mid-to-late June for trial runs, with reduced capacity in July.

No. The nightmare scenario is a big outbreak among CMs which then spreads to guests.

They would MUCH rather stay closed another month or two than risk having to close again or deal with the bad press of an outbreak.

 

[MagicWDI]

When WDW does open, does anyone think there’s a chance resort amenities and entertainment will be improved or expanded? More kids events, more boat rentals, more evening shows? This would be a great way to “pull” guests back to the resorts from the parks for better distancing.

If they try to offer some entertainment to pull away guests from the parks, it will most likely be reservation only to keep capacity at safer and controllable levels.

 

[tissandtully]

Anyone know if there is a plan for just total shutdown of the parks business permanently? There’s gotta be right? They have to be running the numbers on that.