WDW Reopening Estimates

[Daniel Brown]

I have those thoughts too. So many people are scared to go out, to dine, to Park hop, but this virus was here when everything was open and bustling. It was at your favorite restaurant, at your gym, at your supermarket, and at your favorite theme park.
I want to protect the vulnerable and open the economy. And I do not want to be hated for it.

I am still hopeful things open in a few weeks. Whether it be my fav restaurant, my boardwalk, or Epcot.

Anecdotally - my wife went back to work at a department store here where we live as the malls have reopened with limited hours. They did a record amount of sales. It was described as "Christmas-like".

 

[AugieMorosco]

Someone on Twitter brought up a good point. If they have to beef up staffing or general staffing but reduce attendance. Would Disney even make much of a profit? They might stay closed longer to save more money.

I think immediate profit is less important than having the parks operational and moving forward.

 

[peter11435]

Someone on Twitter brought up a good point. If they have to beef up staffing or general staffing but reduce attendance. Would Disney even make much of a profit? They might stay closed longer to save more money.

This has been addressed multiple times. They know they won’t initially make a profit but they have to take those steps in order to restore operations and return to profitability. The decision on when to open won’t be made based on profitability.

 

[Getachew]

This has been addressed multiple times. They know they won’t initially make a profit but they have to take those steps in order to restore operations and return to profitability. The decision on when to open won’t be made based on profitability.

Profit will matter sooner than you think.

 

[robhedin]

Profit will matter sooner than you think.

No doubt. But first it's about reducing the rate of losses.

 

[wdw71fan]

This has been addressed multiple times. They know they won’t initially make a profit but they have to take those steps in order to restore operations and return to profitability. The decision on when to open won’t be made based SOLELY on profitability.

FTFY

 

[peter11435]

Profit will matter sooner than you think.

Certainly. But the expectation is that attendance will slowly be able to be increased and with it revenue. Obviously they exist to make money, but in order to make money again they will need to lose some.

 

[peter11435]

FTFY

It was correct before and didn’t need fixing.

 

[Getachew]

Certainly. But the expectation is that attendance will slowly be able to be increased and with it revenue. Obviously they exist to make money, but in order to make money money again they will need to lose some.

Agreed. Baby steps.

 

[jpeden]

Anecdotally - my wife went back to work at a department store here where we live as the malls have reopened with limited hours. They did a record amount of sales. It was described as "Christmas-like".

I think people are severely underestimating the amount of pent up consumer spending that is in the marketplace.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I'm curious... why would you put a cruise ahead of Walt Disney World when society is dealing with a pandemic? I'm not being snarky; I'm genuinely curious about the logic. Cruise ships are known to be hotbeds for transmitting disease due to the close quarters. I would think WDW would be a far less likely place to catch a virus, statistically speaking.

I care about WDW more and do not care to have my children’s (or my) memories of such a special place tainted. We’ve already had Covid-19, so I’m not particularly afraid of getting it again, and if I do, I know I’ll survive and can quarantine.

 

[wdw71fan]

It was correct before and didn’t need fixing.

Agree to disagree?

... risk management teams will say x, the board and management will say y, and then they’ll do z.. anything any company does is a carefully calculated balance of acceptable levels of risk vs the balance sheet.

 

[peter11435]

Agree to disagree?

... risk management teams will say x, the board and management will say y, and then they’ll do z.. anything any company does is a carefully calculated balance of acceptable levels of risk vs the balance sheet.

I won’t agree that it’s ever ok to edit someone else’s post. I said what I said because it’s the truth. You may disagree, but do that in your own post without changing the message of mine.

Obviously the companies actions going forward will be carefully calculated based on a variety of factors. Profitability will not be one of those factors because it is understood and accepted that the reopening phase will not be profitable. The financial factor they will be assessing as part of reopening will be a positive contribution of operations. In other words the park must make enough during those opening phases to compensate for the increased cost of operation. Not necessarily enough to turn a profit. They won’t be looking to make a profit but rather enough to reduce the loses.

 

[wdw71fan]

I won’t agree that it’s ever ok to edit someone else’s post. I said what I said because it’s the truth. You may disagree, but do that in your own post without changing the message of mine.

Obviously the companies actions going forward will be carefully calculated based on a variety of factors. Profitability will not be one of those factors because it is understood and accepted that the reopening phase will not be profitable. The financial factor they will be assessing as part of reopening will be a positive contribution of operations. In other words the park must make enough during those opening phases to compensate for the increased cost of operation. Not necessarily enough to turn a profit. They won’t be looking to make a profit but rather enough to reduce the loses.

You took way more offense to something that was meant in Jest. Sorry it didn't go over well..


Enjoy your evening.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

The answer is yes.
But there is a lot of nuance.
You can sue anybody for anything -- But let's look at 3 stages:
1 Will it get immediately dismissed?

Answer is, no, it probably would not get immediately dismissed with some exceptions. If Congress or Florida legislature pass some sort of law giving immunity, then it would be immediately dismissed. Lawsuits by employees could be immediately dismissed, because they have to go through the worker's compensation system.

But a suit by a guest, unless there is some new law blocking those suits, would not immediately get dismissed.

So Disney now has to, at a minimum, spend thousands of dollars defending the suit. Even if Disney were to eventually "win" they would still be out between $30,000 and $300,000 defending the lawsuit.

2. Would it get dismissed as summary judgment or get up through trial?

Here, we really get into the gray, and get into Disney's control. We look at the evidence -- Is there sufficient evidence that a jury *could* conclude Disney acted unreasonably in protecting public safety. Is there evidence Disney wasn't cleaning thoroughly enough. Was Disney dangerously cramming people close together.
If Disney can really show they took EVERY reasonable step.. then MAYBE they can get the case dismissed here. But this is still pretty unlikely.
Also, Disney would face a somewhat unfair situation here:
If they get 1 case dismissed.... great, but it doesn't really establish a standard for other cases. (other plaintiffs can't be penalized for a case they weren't involved in)
But if 1 plaintiff survives a summary judgment motion, it can establish a precedent that can be used against Disney in other cases. (since Disney was involved in the case they lost, it can now be used as a precedent for all the other cases against Disney).

So what types of cases might get dismissed?
Scenario: The infection rate has gotten very low. Disney has taken extraordinary steps to control the infection. In 1 month period, only 10 infections and 1 death are traced to Disney. Disney might be able to get the 1 case dismissed, as certainly they can't be expected to avoid all sickness.
Scenario: In a 1 month period, 2,000 new infections are traced to Disney along with 20-30 deaths. While Disney has taken some social distancing steps, there are still locations in the park that lead to people congregating. Good luck getting those cases dismissed.

3 Would it win at trial?

The answer simply doesn't matter. Disney likely wouldn't take a case to trial. It would be settled before it got to this point.
And here, we look at the strength of the case. If there was a strong case -- Evidence Disney knew the in-park transmission rate was rising, evidence they knew there were specific locations where people were congregating dangerously, evidence they weren't disinfecting fully.... and a younger person died as a result -- it would be a huge settlement.
Very weak evidence -- extremely isolated cases, Disney was taking a ton of reasonable steps, an older person.... it would be a small settlement.


But you can see why it is in Disney's interest to be conservative and take all reasonable infection control steps:
1 -- fewer infections means fewer lawsuits.
2 -- better infection control makes it more likely you can win the lawsuits (or reduce the prospective settlement)

Would Disney rather defend 5 lawsuits which they may settle for an average of $200,000 each... or defend 50 lawsuits that they have to settle for $2 million each?

Here is what their lawyers are telling them right now, "you want to reduce your risk exposure"

There won’t be any lawsuits...Congress and other legislative bodies will waive any liability by law. After 9/11, no one could sue the airlines by law.

 

[Daniel Brown]

I think people are severely underestimating the amount of pent up consumer spending that is in the marketplace.

This

 

[wdwmagic]

Disney Senior Vice President tells Task Force that July resort bookings does not mean the parks will be open

Thomas Mazloum continues to state that there is "Nothing to report about Walt Disney World yet."

www.wdwmagic.com

 

[Epcotbob]

I think people are severely underestimating the amount of pent up consumer spending that is in the marketplace.

Yep, this is why I think the re-opening of the economy (and parks) will progress quickly once underway and we will pretty much be back to fairly normal life activities by the end of the summer (except for the economic ramifications).

I also think the doomsday predictions of a continual resurgence of the virus and everything shutting back down again will not materialize and Covid-19 will fade from the limelight by fall.

So there, I said it. But hey, this is a forum for predictions....right?

 

[G00fyDad]

The news is reporting that WDW is taking reservations for trips that start on July 1st or later.

 

[mhaftman7]

I just read the article saying despite accepting resort reservations, the parks may not be accessible. I mean come on. How can you tell guests to come on in and the options you get are the pool or your room? I get trying to limit capacity, but people see right through that.