WDW Reopening Estimates

[Imagineer45]

Airlines are circling the bowl

They have to have 77% of the seats filled to break even domestically

How’s that work if they can only sell or are limited to 50% capacity

They’ve lost $113 bil estimated already...


So the they would have to slash the flight schedule to save costs AND charge double...basically.

That is not exactly how airline pricing works. Airlines can profit off flights that are 50% full and lose money are flights that are 95% full. It all depends on whether its a business or leisure market and if there is competition. For example, intercontinental flights to Europe/Asia can often profit on lower load factors because the business class passengers are paying a ton for their lie-flat seats, while leisure markets like Orlando with a ton of low-cost competition often need very high load factors to break even.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

I think it should be compulsory for things like school, boarding a plane, and procreating.

Lol. This issue with anti-vaxers is age old. And isn't likely to be resolved soon. Also, the regular seasonal flu has a vaccine every year. The flu kills between 40k and 60k people a year and over half the people don't bother with it. Its all one big head scratcher.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Lol. This issue with anti-vaxers is age old. And isn't likely to be resolved soon. Also, the regular seasonal flu has a vaccine every year. The flu kills between 40k and 60k people a year and over half the people don't bother with it. Its all one big head scratcher.

The problem is that much of the more recent anti-vaxxer movement is based on information that has been proven to be patently false, and now they have the internet to spread false information...that some, unfortunately, buy into.

 

[MrHappy]

People should be very cautious about getting their hopes up for vaccine in the short or medium term. It takes years to develop vaccines. It would be beyond fantastic if we get one before that, but I just think way too many people are under the impression one is just months away.

I read the news, thanks. 2 are in phase 2 trials.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That is not exactly how airline pricing works. Airlines can profit off flights that are 50% full and lose money are flights that are 95% full. It all depends on whether its a business or leisure market and if there is competition. For example, intercontinental flights to Europe/Asia can often profit on lower load factors because the business class passengers are paying a ton for their lie-flat seats, while leisure markets like Orlando with a ton of low-cost competition often need very high load factors to break even.

I’m just repeating the story as presented by ABC News...

If you’ve figured out how to make airlines profitable...I’m sure I could set up a zoom meeting with some eager CEOs

You’re saying all markets aren’t equal? Got it...but do you think disney’s News wing is exaggerating their plight? Doesn’t really jive with their business interests...

 

[MrHappy]

And there may never be a vaccine. HIV still doesn't have one and it's been 40 years. Effective treatment is more likely.

Pretty sure you don’t get that by breathing in germs. The virus that you can get by breathing has priority

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

The problem is that much of the more recent anti-vaxxer movement is based on information that has been proven to be patently false, and now they have the internet to spread false information...that some, unfortunately, buy into.

Oh yes. Anti-vaxers are clearly wrong, but it's been a decades long fight. That's all.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Our economy in 1918 versus 2020 is like comparing an Apple Newton to today’s iPhone. Yes, those that took action in 1918 recovered faster but keep in mind that the economy was mostly industrial based. Today we live in a service based economy.

In this we agree...

The economy now is near complete smoke and Talk now...as evidenced by a rising stock market with crushing economic figures across the board.

People believe what they want to believe to suit their agenda.

In 1918 people had to build things and then sell it or they starved because they couldn’t pay the butcher or milkman.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

In this we agree...

The economy now is near complete smoke and Talk now...as evidenced by a rising stock market with crushing economic figures across the board.

People believe what they want to believe to suit their agenda.

In 1918 people had to build things and then sell it or they starved because they couldn’t pay the butcher or milkman.

Whaaaaaat?!? You mean it was based on REAL things?!?

 

[WondersOfLife]

So those estimates...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Pretty sure you don’t get that by breathing in germs. The virus that you can get by breathing has priority

I think the point is that prevention and/or treatment could work to end the crisis or reduce the risk to a level That’s accepted.

 

[peter11435]

Pretty sure you don’t get that by breathing in germs. The virus that you can get by breathing has priority

True. But it’s not like people haven’t been trying to create an HIV vaccine for 40 years. Also, HIV is not the only virus without a vaccine.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Whaaaaaat?!? You mean it was based on REAL things?!?

I know...it’s shocking to so many...

Here’s another one to blow your mind: there wasn’t high interest, Internet approved credit for 99% or things on earth too!

Most things were COD

 

[ToTBellHop]

I read the news, thanks. 2 are in phase 2 trials.

Yes. Which is impressive on the usual multi-year timescale but people shouldn’t get ahead of themselves. A vaccine widely available late next winter is still the best-case scenario on that front. In the near-term, we must rely on distancing and therapeutics. Cutting the fatality rate down toward 0.1% would be a game-changer.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I know...it’s shocking to so many...

Here’s another one to blow your mind: there wasn’t high interest, Internet approved credit for 99% or things on earth too!

Most things were COD

Yup. You'd be surprised at how many people want to commission me to do a custom wood-carving, then are stunned that I won't start work without a 50% deposit.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Hope for more guidance on wdw soon...this thread is too hot for me so I’ll watch from the sidelines

 

[ToTBellHop]

Real-talk: they need to work on dramatically increasing use of FLU vaccination this fall. For one, it helps hospitals so they don’t have to deal with both a flu season AND Coronavirus. And two, hopefully folks who get a flu vaccine in October will return in late winter for a (presumptive) Covid-19 vaccine.

Even without point two, point one would still be worthwhile.

 

[MrHappy]

I think the point is that prevention and/or treatment could work to end the crisis or reduce the risk to a level That’s accepted.

THAT was his point? Alrighty.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes. Which is impressive on the usual multi-year timescale but people shouldn’t get ahead of themselves. A vaccine widely available late next winter is still the best-case scenario on that front. In the near-term, we must rely on distancing and therapeutics. Cutting the fatality rate down toward 0.1% would be a game-changer.

This ^^^^

I think in this debate there’s a lot of black and white thinking. It’s either open now to save the economy or wait for a vaccine to save more people. Neither is going to happen and neither is practical. The solution lies somewhere in the middle. We are not going to wait for a vaccine to open the country but we need to open things slowly and have a plan in place. The economy will pick back up, but there’s no magic light switch. It’s going to be a slow climb out. If we try to push things too fast IMHO the economic impact could be far worse than waiting until the timing is right. The more time that goes by the more we learn and the better treatment will get. That’s what bridges the gap between now and a vaccine.

In terms of WDW opening it’s going to happen before there’s a vaccine. Probably some time this summer. In my mind the bigger decision for Disney is weighing the amount of distancing and measures needed vs the desire to open earlier. The sooner they open the more restrictions they will need. Waiting a little while could allow them to open with less hoops to jump through. I still say they won’t open until phase 3....whenever that is.

 

[Epcotbob]

Oh yes. Anti-vaxers are clearly wrong, but it's been a decades long fight. That's all.

I know some people that are anti-vaxers, I also know some anti-anti-vaxers and even some anti-anti-anti-vaxers.