WDW Reopening Estimates

[MagicWDI]

Morality is below 1% (Most likely under 0.5%). The odds of succumbing from it are statistically speaking extremely small and not significant.

Not sure where you're getting your numbers from, but it sure isn't from health officials. Sounds like the latest cable news channel talking points, to me.

Over 80,000 deaths is the number I'm going off of and the deaths per day have jumped up again, mostly due to recent events. The mortality percentage argument is moot at this point. So is when it arrived. Arguments trying to downplay the seriousness, to me, is like grasping at straws. First it wasn't going to hit in America. Then it was no worse than the flu and was going to go away quickly. Now the covid deaths are being faked. It just won't end.

Disney is most likely basing their reopening on several factors. Some of those factors probably have to do with meeting certain criteria, such as the number of tests given per day and a downward trend in cases and deaths over a certain time period.

Iger helped draft some of these criteria for California and I would bet he did the same thing for the Disney company as a whole. This is probably the reason why Disney is taking a "wait and see" approach to the whole matter and taking it week by week.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well it’s a good thing everything is back on topic again....carry on

 

[GoofGoof]

Not sure where you're getting your numbers from, but it sure isn't from health officials. Sounds like the latest cable news channel talking points, to me.

Over 80,000 deaths is the number I'm going off of and the deaths per day have jumped up again, mostly due to recent events. The mortality percentage argument is moot at this point. So is when it arrived. Arguments trying to downplay the seriousness, to me, is like grasping at straws. First it wasn't going to hit in America. Then it was no worse than the flu and was going to go away quickly. Now the covid deaths are being faked. It just won't end.

Disney is most likely basing their reopening on several factors. Some of those factors probably have to do with meeting certain criteria, such as the number of tests given per day and a downward trend in cases and deaths over a certain time period.

Iger helped draft some of these criteria for California and I would bet he did the same thing for the Disney company as a whole. This is probably the reason why Disney is taking a "wait and see" approach to the whole matter and taking it week by week.

I’m curious to see if TWDC has one opening plan for the US or a separate plan for WDW and DLR. A lot of people seem to think WDW opening is based solely on conditions on the ground in FL but they may have more of a national plan on re-opening.

 

[brianstl]

True. But it’s not like people haven’t been trying to create an HIV vaccine for 40 years. Also, HIV is not the only virus without a vaccine.

We don’t have a vaccine for any other Coronavirus.

 

[MagicWDI]

I’m curious to see if TWDC has one opening plan for the US or a separate plan for WDW and DLR. A lot of people seem to think WDW opening is based solely on conditions on the ground in FL but they may have more of a national plan on re-opening.

I personally believe they may have domestic guidelines in place for both parks helped drafted by health officials and their CMO, and operations, but are looking at conditions both nationally and at each region as a mix. Local government guidelines may only be a small but important factor of the overall picture, but conditions notionally have to improve before we can open on either coast. But that's my speculation.

 

[MagicWDI]

We don’t have a vaccine for any other Coronavirus.

The main strains of the coronavirus (the cold) are very manageable, even though humans lose immunity in about a year and can get it again, or get it sooner with a different strain. The cold does take people out of work every year and it does negativity effect the economy due to lost productivity. But the cold can be very manageable with simple cold medicines. Big pharma might make more money on cold meds, too.

 

[brianstl]

The main strains of the coronavirus (the cold) are very manageable, even though humans lose immunity in about a year and can get it again, or get it sooner with a different strain. The cold does take people out of work every year and it does negativity effect the economy due to lost productivity. But the cold can be very manageable with simple cold medicines. Big pharma might make more money on cold meds, too.

Bunch of researchers have been working on vaccines for SARS and MERS for years. Nothing safe and effective to this point. Now much more resources and money are being thrown at this vaccine than the other two combined, but we don’t have a great track record with Coronaviruses. I think we will have something in the future but it could be a while. Plus, there is a high chance the vaccine will only be temporarily effective if the antibodies for this virus follow the same short term effectiveness that has been demonstrated in other Coronaviruses that belong to the same genus as this one. The chances are high that this virus will be with us for the rest of the life of anyone posting on this board.

 

[MagicWDI]

Bunch of researchers have been working on vaccines for SARS and MERS for years. Nothing safe and effective to this point. Now much more resources and money are being thrown at this vaccine than the other two combined, but we don’t have a great track record with Coronaviruses. I think we will have something in the future but it could be a while. Plus, there is a high chance the vaccine will only be temporarily effective if the antibodies for this virus follow the same short term effectiveness that has been demonstrated in other Coronaviruses that belong to the same genus as this one. The chances are high that this virus will be with us for the rest of the life of anyone posting on this board.

Time will tell. The unfortunate truth is until a vaccine is developed we may have to get used to this new normal. If we want to get back to work we will have to compromise some of our luxurious and make it a serious effort to control and manage the spread. What we cannot do it pretend the virus is no big deal and allow it to wreck havoc. These measures being adopted at Shanghai Disneyland are the best case scenario. Worst case is another outbreak, a spike in daily deaths, and more closures.

 

[marni1971]

It doesn't matter if you like it or not parks will open up..

As sure as the sun rises. Eventually.

• Some European Parks (Efteling in Netherlands, Europa Park in Germany) announced they're opening by end of May and already have a hotel open up.
• Shanghai Disneyland Opening May 11th
• Holiday World opening June 14th
• Looks like Six Flags is opening up parks that are in states that'll let them this month
• Lagoon in Utah appears to be opening in mid-may.
• Cedar Fair is all ready to open parks but awaiting state approval
• Utah zoos (similar to theme parks and could set a precedent ) are open
• Looks Like Disney and Universal US parks are waiting to see what the reactions are to other regional parks opening but are opening shopping districts later this month

You missed Walt Disney World, Disneyland and Disneyland Paris off the list.

 

[bartholomr4]

Time will tell. The unfortunate truth is until a vaccine is developed we may have to get used to this new normal. If we want to get back to work we will have to compromise some of our luxurious and make it a serious effort to control and manage the spread. What we cannot do it pretend the virus is no big deal and allow it to wreck havoc. These measures being adopted at Shanghai Disneyland are the best case scenario. Worst case is another outbreak, a spike in daily deaths, and more closures.

Not as Deadly as We Thought? — The New Atlantis

Why fighting about Covid-19’s fatality rate is a distraction

www.thenewatlantis.com

Probably not what everyone wants to hear, but attached is an analysis from the Journal of Technology and Society. It addresses from the authors perspective both sides of the story..... It appears everyone is a little right....

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not as Deadly as We Thought? — The New Atlantis

Why fighting about Covid-19’s fatality rate is a distraction

www.thenewatlantis.com

Probably not what everyone wants to hear, but attached is an analysis from the Journal of Technology and Society. It addresses from the authors perspective both sides of the story..... It appears everyone is a little right....

It honestly doesn’t matter...as long as there is uncertainty - which is a given considering there so little info/data - it’s going to result in a more cautious approach In the aggregate.

I’m tired of this...I’m sure most everyone else is too...

But we would move on and talk about something else than this mess much sooner if the STUPID hoax inferences...and dumb comparisons to other things would stop. Just stop. Work the problem.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

Fortunately we do know a lot about it right now. Months of numbers and data and tracking millions of people. How it's spread and not spread. We know what factors make you at risk, etc. Duration of being contagious, there isn't much we don't know. I've seen media throw some maybe scenarios that aren't based on any real data and I don't think anyone wants to stay locked up for maybe scenarios. Only thing that keeps evolving is the data suggesting groups that aren't at risk are safer than we thought.

 

[GoofGoof]

I personally believe they may have domestic guidelines in place for both parks helped drafted by health officials and their CMO, and operations, but are looking at conditions both nationally and at each region as a mix. Local government guidelines may only be a small but important factor of the overall picture, but conditions notionally have to improve before we can open on either coast. But that's my speculation.

My speculation is similar. Both parks closed at the same time despite FL not requiring WDW to close. Since both parks draw a largely national customer base they need to look nationally to conditions when considering opening. I do think that if conditions improve nationally and TWDC is ready to open both of their parks but CA still won’t allow it then WDW could open but not DLR. Outside of that scenario I think they both open together.

 

[marni1971]

Only thing that keeps evolving is the data suggesting groups that aren't at risk are safer than we thought.

I didn’t see that. Link please?

 

[bartholomr4]

I didn’t see that. Link please?

The same number of people could die from âdeaths of despairâ as have already died in the U.S. from coronavirus, new study finds

‘More Americans could lose their lives to deaths of despair, deaths due to drug, alcohol, and suicide, if we do not do something immediately.’

www.marketwatch.com

From the above article

 

[marni1971]

The same number of people could die from âdeaths of despairâ as have already died in the U.S. from coronavirus, new study finds

‘More Americans could lose their lives to deaths of despair, deaths due to drug, alcohol, and suicide, if we do not do something immediately.’

www.marketwatch.com

View attachment 469505

From the above article

Who is the “Well Being Trust and the Robert Graham Center for Policy Studies in Family Medicine and Primary Care”?

 

[GoofGoof]

Fortunately we do know a lot about it right now. Months of numbers and data and tracking millions of people. How it's spread and not spread. We know what factors make you at risk, etc. Duration of being contagious, there isn't much we don't know. I've seen media throw some maybe scenarios that aren't based on any real data and I don't think anyone wants to stay locked up for maybe scenarios. Only thing that keeps evolving is the data suggesting groups that aren't at risk are safer than we thought.

I’m not sure we know much about this virus at all. What we do know is not based on scientific studies but observational data which can be right or very wrong. It will be 6 months to years until we know definitely exactly how this virus works and why some people at the same age and with the same underlying conditions are asymptomatic while others end up in the ICU on a ventilator. I’m not interested in debating that. We can agree to disagree on how much we know.

From the perspective of WDW and the travel and leisure economy in general, 20% of the adult population is over 65, close to 1/3 of adults have high blood pressure, 20% have diabetes, 15-20% have asthma, 30-40% of the adult population is obese. Some of those things cross each other with older people who have high blood pressure and diabetes. If you then factor in people who directly care for a high risk person (someone who takes care of or lives with their elderly parent, the parent of a kid with asthma, etc) you may get to over half the population. The point of all of this is WDW and the travel economy in general can’t be sustained long term with half the customers sitting out.

Even if the government opened everything up you can’t force people to show up. What’s best for the economy (and WDW in general) is for a slow and steady opening. That’s the best chance to get people comfortable with coming back. I get that people have trips booked and ADRs and FP reservations made and it’s disappointing. I get that some people feel they are at low risk so they want to get back to life. Things will open, but if we go too fast it could lead to a setback and more damage to the economy. We need to stick to the plan and use data and statistics, not emotion to make decisions on re-opening.

 

[crawale]

Some hospitals are using hydroxychloroquine as part of their official protocol. It's not just the dude in France. I don't think they've given up on it, but are trying to find the appropriate use and dosage. Regardless, it's good news about Remdesivir. It seems like improved treatment options are our best bet right now.

Thankfully it isn't a hydroxychloroquine situation. Remdesivir is a promising drug that was specifically created as an antiviral, and the current clinical trials are very promising. It's not going to be a miracle cure, but it has the potential to be a significant help if the trials continue to go well.

If it does continue to perform well, it would likely only be used in hospitals for relatively severe cases, though. It's an intravenous drug; not something where someone can just pop a pill.

The makers of Remdesivir have given millions to Fauci's organization. It is an expensive drug. Hydroxychloroquine is used successfully thoughout the world. Saint Fauci's aproval could not possibly be linked to the amount of money manufacturer's donate?

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Any response to WDW, DL, etc. opening is 99% perception, and 1% science. The additional spacing, wash stations, masks, temperature screening, and phasing are all part of “checking the boxes” so the consumer is confident to attend, and government officials feel like they are covered.

 

[WondersOfLife]

Any response to WDW, DL, etc. opening is 99% perception, and 1% science. The additional spacing, wash stations, masks, temperature screening, and phasing are all part of “checking the boxes” so the consumer is confident to attend, and government officials feel like they are covered.

That’s what I’ve been trying to say.