WDW Reopening Estimates

[Touchdown]

Don’t compare this to HIV, that is a virus that targets cells that help guide the body’s antibody and immune response, it is unique in that fact. Because it targets the very cells that are needed to fight it, it’s much harder to create a vaccine.

 

[TrojanUSC]

Don’t compare this to HIV, that is a virus that targets cells that help guide the body’s antibody and immune response, it is unique in that fact. Because it targets the very cells that are needed to fight it, it’s much harder to create a vaccine.

Also, while a vaccine doesn't exist, PrEP does - which is essentially a vaccine in daily pill form.

 

[SourcererMark79]

This ^^^^

I think in this debate there’s a lot of black and white thinking. It’s either open now to save the economy or wait for a vaccine to save more people. Neither is going to happen and neither is practical. The solution lies somewhere in the middle. We are not going to wait for a vaccine to open the country but we need to open things slowly and have a plan in place. The economy will pick back up, but there’s no magic light switch. It’s going to be a slow climb out. If we try to push things too fast IMHO the economic impact could be far worse than waiting until the timing is right. The more time that goes by the more we learn and the better treatment will get. That’s what bridges the gap between now and a vaccine.

In terms of WDW opening it’s going to happen before there’s a vaccine. Probably some time this summer. In my mind the bigger decision for Disney is weighing the amount of distancing and measures needed vs the desire to open earlier. The sooner they open the more restrictions they will need. Waiting a little while could allow them to open with less hoops to jump through. I still say they won’t open until phase 3....whenever that is.

The US also went 0-60 in a nanosecond to curb the effect of spreading the virus. We're all learning now what east Asia has been doing for years.

 

[havoc315]

Don’t compare this to HIV, that is a virus that targets cells that help guide the body’s antibody and immune response, it is unique in that fact. Because it targets the very cells that are needed to fight it, it’s much harder to create a vaccine.

Yes, it’s different. But no effective vaccine after over 30 years. And plenty of other viruses have never found a vaccine. Lots of HIV vaccines have gone through trials.
Which is why nobody should get too excited that vaccines have already entered trials.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed, but the odds are against the current vaccine trials to pan out.
Then even if they do pan out, there is a very good chance that they are far less than 100% effective. For example, most flu vaccines are only 40-60% effective.
Further, at least one of the current vaccines in trials(I have to check, possibly both) would not be eligible for those who are immuno-compromises, those who need it most can’t take it.

Point is — we can’t expect a miracle vaccine by late 2020 that erases the virus. It’s not impossible, but it’s a long shot.
Instead, we need to find ways to live with it..
1... even as we “open up,” hygiene and social distancing measures
2.. masks. I forget the exact math, but it’s something like: if 70% of the population wore masks that were 60% effective, the virus would be gone in a few months.
3.. therapeutics and treatment that make the virus less dangerous
4... testing and tracing.

Those measures are more likely to “cure” society than a vaccine.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes, it’s different. But no effective vaccine after over 30 years. And plenty of other viruses have never found a vaccine. Lots of HIV vaccines have gone through trials.
Which is why nobody should get too excited that vaccines have already entered trials.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed, but the odds are against the current vaccine trials to pan out.
Then even if they do pan out, there is a very good chance that they are far less than 100% effective. For example, most flu vaccines are only 40-60% effective.
Further, at least one of the current vaccines in trials(I have to check, possibly both) would not be eligible for those who are immuno-compromises, those who need it most can’t take it.

Point is — we can’t expect a miracle vaccine by late 2020 that erases the virus. It’s not impossible, but it’s a long shot.
Instead, we need to find ways to live with it..
1... even as we “open up,” hygiene and social distancing measures
2.. masks. I forget the exact math, but it’s something like: if 70% of the population wore masks that were 60% effective, the virus would be gone in a few months.
3.. therapeutics and treatment that make the virus less dangerous
4... testing and tracing.

Those measures are more likely to “cure” society than a vaccine.

The flu vaccine itself is a lot more effective than 40-60%. It’s in the 90s vs the actual strain of flu it’s designed to protect you from. Each year you are only vaccinated for several strains of flu. They basically guess which ones will be prevalent and they don’t always guess right. If a strain of flu hits that wasn‘t in the vaccine people who got a flu shot are not fully protected. Some year the shot is over 90% effective and some years less than 50%. That’s a product of the strains they picked not the effectiveness of the vaccine. So far there’s been no evidence of this virus mutating like the flu so a vaccine would likely be more stable but who knows the virus has only really been around for 6 months. Other coronaviruses have not mutated like the flu. Plenty of viruses have effective vaccines including some that protect for life or long periods of time and others that need to be updated periodically. I don’t think a vaccine is a long shot. It’s our best hope and there are tons of resources dedicated to it.

Without a vaccine we are looking at a prolonged worldwide economic depression unless the virus just disappears on its own which is possible but unlikely. People will eventually learn to live with it and there will likely be waves so good periods followed by bad periods and natural immunity will build over years as people are infected multiple times, but there will not be a return to “normal” for many years and a lot of activities involving large crowds and other social functions will be limited or completely gone. It’s not a pretty picture.

On masks and social distancing, where I am we have been doing that for at least 4 weeks now and the number of new cases aren’t dropping (percent positive is still high too). Anyone working right now is wearing a mask and all customers are required to now too. They have all the social distancing rules in place too with capacity limits in stores, lines to space crowds, etc. I don’t think it’s likely to solve the problem. Testing and tracing could be greatly improved everywhere. Without a vaccine there could be a bigger push toward a technological solution like the smart phone apps. People today won’t accept that, but our attitudes will need to adapt to that reality if there is no vaccine.

 

[Imagineer45]

I’m just repeating the story as presented by ABC News...

If you’ve figured out how to make airlines profitable...I’m sure I could set up a zoom meeting with some eager CEOs

You’re saying all markets aren’t equal? Got it...but do you think disney’s News wing is exaggerating their plight? Doesn’t really jive with their business interests...

I just understand airlines decently well because I have worked with the industry before. I am not sure I understand what you are trying to say with Disney's news wing, as I am not sure what you are implying Disney's news wing has been saying.

 

[csmat99]

Pretty sure you don’t get that by breathing in germs. The virus that you can get by breathing has priority

No one said anything about priority. My point was that people thinking that vaccine is a sure thing just matter of time might be in for a shock.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I just understand airlines decently well because I have worked with the industry before. I am not sure I understand what you are trying to say with Disney's news wing, as I am not sure what you are implying Disney's news wing has been saying.

I just think I tend to believing this reporting. That isn’t always the case.

 

[Jrb1979]

People don't seem to realize this virus has a very high survival rate, and getting rid of it of completely is not something that this shutdown will accomplish. I'm over the sensationalism honestly.

I think most understand that it has a high a survival rate but most also know it spreads easily too. Most are in agreement with the slow reopening of the economy with physical distancing measures in place. What is wrong with that?

 

[surfsupdon]

It was in the United State since January and we were absolutely fine until we shut everything down. I'm assuming the economy will boom once we remove all these silly restrictions that are theatre.

I have those thoughts too. So many people are scared to go out, to dine, to Park hop, but this virus was here when everything was open and bustling. It was at your favorite restaurant, at your gym, at your supermarket, and at your favorite theme park.
I want to protect the vulnerable and open the economy. And I do not want to be hated for it.

I am still hopeful things open in a few weeks. Whether it be my fav restaurant, my boardwalk, or Epcot.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think we’ve gotten way off topic at this point. Like it or not the country (and the rest of the world) enacted these stay at home orders. It happened, this isn’t the place to debate that decision. Like it or not, in the US we are coming into the initial phase of re-opening the country. It’s happening, no point in debating that decision. The topic of the thread is when WDW opens.

Getting back to the topic, to recap: so far we know Shanghai opens in a few days and Disney Springs in a few weeks. We also know the domestic parks aren’t taking reservations anymore before July 1. We also know they have only cancelled reservations through the end of May but they have said they will continue cancellations one week at a time including any cancellations in June. They also stopped taking new ADRs and new villain party reservations in June. FP+ bookings are still allowed in June for anyone with an existing hotel reservation or AP For the end of the 30 day window.

Based on all that I‘m thinking July is now the earliest they plan to open, but it’s conceivable they do something in June like a soft opening.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

• Some European Parks (Efteling in Netherlands) announced they're opening by end of May and already have a hotel open up.
• Looks like Six Flags is opening up parks that are in states that'll let them
• Cedar Fair is all ready to open parks but awaiting state approval
• Utah zoos (similar to theme parks) are open
• Looks Like Disney and Universal are waiting to see what the reactions are to other regional parks opening but are opening shopping districts later this month

Opening doesn't mean anything other than they're trying to re-open. What's the most important thing to watch here is how big of a spike in infections occurs once they do re-open.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I don't think that really matters unless hospitals are near capacity (which won't happen). My previous post is what is confirmed to be happening. There's really no debate that they'll be parks opening very soon.

That absolutely matters. Once hospitals begin accepting elective surgeries and car accidents, etc. return to normal levels, it won't take much to push them to their limits. This is the reason that MA just dedicated a temporary hospital in Boston even though our shut-downs are scheduled to begin ending on the 18th of this month.

 

[MrHappy]

It looks like the Lagoon in Utah (If this is up to date, which I assume it is but i'm not familiar with the park) will be opening on May 16th along with the campground: http://www.lagoonpark.com/park-info/schedule-hours/

If true it'll be one of the first parks to open in US.

Instead of listing all the places that are opening, can you list the many ways Walt Disney World is different than those places? Just want to make sure I understand your knowledge before I engage with you.

 

[MrHappy]

I've mentioned this before but I'm not "loyal" to The Walt Disney Company (As i love a lot of parks), But most parks in the industry have similar elements to WDW. In my perspective, any developments in this field are great!

For example, Efteling has connections to Disney and similar theming, dark rides, and small walkways. It's reasonable to say that as regional parks open it'll pressure WDW and Universal to open as well.

It also sets legal precedents as what is and what isn't allowed.

Perfect.

 

[havoc315]

The flu vaccine itself is a lot more effective than 40-60%. It’s in the 90s vs the actual strain of flu it’s designed to protect you from. Each year you are only vaccinated for several strains of flu. They basically guess which ones will be prevalent and they don’t always guess right. If a strain of flu hits that wasn‘t in the vaccine people who got a flu shot are not fully protected. Some year the shot is over 90% effective and some years less than 50%. That’s a product of the strains they picked not the effectiveness of the vaccine. So far there’s been no evidence of this virus mutating like the flu so a vaccine would likely be more stable but who knows the virus has only really been around for 6 months. Other coronaviruses have not mutated like the flu. Plenty of viruses have effective vaccines including some that protect for life or long periods of time and others that need to be updated periodically. I don’t think a vaccine is a long shot. It’s our best hope and there are tons of resources dedicated to it.

Without a vaccine we are looking at a prolonged worldwide economic depression unless the virus just disappears on its own which is possible but unlikely. People will eventually learn to live with it and there will likely be waves so good periods followed by bad periods and natural immunity will build over years as people are infected multiple times, but there will not be a return to “normal” for many years and a lot of activities involving large crowds and other social functions will be limited or completely gone. It’s not a pretty picture.

On masks and social distancing, where I am we have been doing that for at least 4 weeks now and the number of new cases aren’t dropping (percent positive is still high too). Anyone working right now is wearing a mask and all customers are required to now too. They have all the social distancing rules in place too with capacity limits in stores, lines to space crowds, etc. I don’t think it’s likely to solve the problem. Testing and tracing could be greatly improved everywhere. Without a vaccine there could be a bigger push toward a technological solution like the smart phone apps. People today won’t accept that, but our attitudes will need to adapt to that reality if there is no vaccine.

yes, flu vaccines are dependent on the strain. But 40-60% is the most common range for any given strain. Some are much less effective.

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness, 2019-2020

Influenza vaccine effectivness study for the 2019-2020 U.S. flu season

www.cdc.gov

Past Seasons’ Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) Estimates

Find seasonal flu VE estimates from past seasons.

www.cdc.gov

Yes, there are indeed some success stories of vaccines. But none of those success stories have ever been faster than about 3-5 years.

sure.... It’s possible. My fingers will be crossed. But a widely distributed widely effective vaccine in the next 12 months is extremely unlikely.

 

[TrojanUSC]

No but a lot of people are in hysterics over something that won't affect them unless your at risk.

The problems you continue to miss are:

1) The virus is asymptomatic in many cases and has a long incubation period in cases where symptoms do present, which translates to it being exceptionally contagious. This poses a massive risk for places like Disney, where someone who feels great can infect hundreds of people.
2) Due to the asymptomatic nature, you may feel fine but inadvertently infect a loved one or family member who is at risk.
3) The "at risk" population is more than 100 million Americans, from the elderly to those with diabetes and even moderate high blood pressure. In many cases, people aren't aware they even have these conditions. These people can not be totally cut off from society.
4) Hospitalization rates are high across all ages after 20 (though they get higher with age), younger people just pull through more.

 

[havoc315]

No but a lot of people are in hysterics over something that won't affect them unless your at risk.

healthy young children from Covid complications, causing something like Kawasaki disease. Still trying to confirm the rejationship

3 children have died in New York from a coronavirus-linked inflammatory disease, Cuomo says

Three children have died in New York from an inflammatory disease that might be linked to the coronavirus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday.

www.google.com

certainly most deaths have been elderly, but I personally so far know 2 people who have passed who were under 65 with no major co-morbidities.
We are still learning about this virus. But very clearly, it’s dangerous. And not just for the very elderly.

 

[havoc315]

The problems you continue to miss are:

1) The virus is asymptomatic in many cases and has a long incubation period in cases where symptoms do present, which translates to it being exceptionally contagious. This poses a massive risk for places like Disney, where someone who feels great can infect hundreds of people.
2) Due to the asymptomatic nature, you may feel fine but inadvertently infect a loved one or family member who is at risk.
3) The "at risk" population is more than 100 million Americans, from the elderly to those with diabetes and even moderate high blood pressure. In many cases, people aren't aware they even have these conditions. These people can not be totally cut off from society.
4) Hospitalization rates are high across all ages after 20 (though they get higher with age), younger people just pull through more.

There is new reason to believe there are extreme dangers for younger children, with a completely different presentation similar to Kawasaki disease. Still early in investigation.

 

[MagicWDI]

.


A very, very, very small amount of people will die or have much complications from this virus. If your not at risk i wouldn't worry about it at all.

As things start opening up i hope the public's panic loosens up a bit more as they can see they are perfectly fine.

This would be great, if it were true. Thing is, the numbers tell a completely different story.