WDW Reopening Estimates

[Driver]

And most have yet to see any money from unemployment due to the inadequate system.

This also true, and for folks struggling before this happened, savings were limited if any. Zero income exacerbates the problem.

 

[GoofGoof]

People should be very cautious about getting their hopes up for vaccine in the short or medium term. It takes years to develop vaccines. It would be beyond fantastic if we get one before that, but I just think way too many people are under the impression one is just months away.

It takes years under normal circumstances. It’s big business so there’s not unlimited money to invest. I’m pretty confident more resources than ever in history are being pumped into the development. It won’t be a few months but its not being overly optimistic to think there’s a good chance we could have something by March or June of next year. its also possible none of the vaccines pan out. Then there’s a good chance that the 2025 estimate for recovery is way too soon. That’s a grim possibility I choose not to spend a lot of time thinking about.

 

[GoofGoof]

Therapeutics are going to come into play first and most estimates have them available no later than this fall. This would help immensely for the at risk population and would also increase the public’s confidence in recovery from the virus.

Therapeutics will hopefully help keep the mortality rate down, but many people still won‘t want to risk getting seriously ill even though the recovery time is shorter and the prognosis is more positive for survival. A full recovery of the tourism industry isn’t going to start until there is a vaccine.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Therapeutics will hopefully help keep the mortality rate down, but many people still won‘t want to risk getting seriously ill even though the recovery time is shorter and the prognosis is more positive for survival. A full recovery of the tourism industry isn’t going to start until there is a vaccine.

Correct

Also, The prediction of “hiccup” in travel seems to be only looking at one of two big issues.

Many of the target traveler market isn’t sitting at home building their travel kitty...they’re losing their shirts.

You need stable or good economies to drive travel. This isn’t one.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Sort of. Mostly, it cuts about 6 months off the far end. But once (if) a vaccine is proven effective, they won’t immediately have 7 billion doses. Luckily for Americans, we will be among the first in line, for better or for worse...

And yet, I'm already starting to see alarming numbers of posts on Facebook from people who are adamantly against this Covid vaccine, and have committed to not getting when it is available. UGH.

 

[GoofGoof]

And yet, I'm already starting to see alarming numbers of posts on Facebook from people who are adamantly against this Covid vaccine, and have committed to not getting when it is available. UGH.

I don’t believe a lot of those people won’t actually get the vaccine. A lot of the resistance to supporting a vaccine comes from people who want everything open today and are afraid the government or other people will use waiting for a vaccine as an excuse to keep stay at home orders in place. I saw a recent poll that found about 60% of the population would get the vaccine, another 20% don’t know or need more info and 20% won’t get it no matter what. So even with 60 to 70% getting vaccinated if the vaccine is 90% effective that should be enough for herd immunity to kick in. There could still be outbreaks if there are pockets where less people got the vaccine but it won’t be able to spread as easily.

 

[Epcotbob]

Airline companies aren't as optimistic as you are.

Yep, one of the big regionals is planning for a 50% reduction of their pilots in October when the contract is up, which ripples to Flight Attendants, Gate workers, baggage handlers, airport service, etc. etc. No....they don’t plan on a rebound in air travel anytime soon even if everything opens up over the summer. They understand economics and the long term effects of what we just did.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yep, one of the big regionals is planning for a 50% reduction of their pilots in October when the contract is up, which ripples to Flight Attendants, Gate workers, baggage handlers, airport service, etc. etc. No....they don’t plan on a rebound in air travel anytime soon even if everything opens up over the summer. They understand economics and the long term effects of what we just did.

Many Disney fans disguised as armchair economists struggle with this issue constantly...with this point and many others over the years

 

[Joesixtoe]

And yet, I'm already starting to see alarming numbers of posts on Facebook from people who are adamantly against this Covid vaccine, and have committed to not getting when it is available. UGH.

I don't want it either, however working in the medical field, I probably will have too . I'm not totally against vaccines, I personally need to do more research on it to be honest, but I just don't like the uncertainty of them.

 

[Thelazer]

And yet, I'm already starting to see alarming numbers of posts on Facebook from people who are adamantly against this Covid vaccine, and have committed to not getting when it is available. UGH.

After seeing how they rolled out Gardasil (and the initial reports of side effects) would you want to be the first in line for this vax?
Or would you rather wait a bit, to see how it shakes out as others get there vax's first??


I mean, it's hardly a stretch for folks to be suspect of something novel, that the gov't first claims as not a big deal.

 

[GoofGoof]

After seeing how they rolled out Gardasil (and the initial reports of side effects) would you want to be the first in line for this vax?
Or would you rather wait a bit, to see how it shakes out as others get there vax's first??


I mean, it's hardly a stretch for folks to be suspect of something novel, that the gov't first claims as not a big deal.

I wouldn’t want to be part of a clinical trial either. Once tens of thousands of people have had the vaccine during trials it’s not like anyone in the general population will be first in line.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wouldn’t want to be part of a clinical trial either. Once tens of thousands of people have had the vaccine during trials it’s not like anyone in the general population will be first in line.

Everyone wants vax and treatments without the shakedown periods

People don’t realize that other vaccines didn’t develop In months...and if it could at all be possible, why would the drug companies take longer to get a product into the market?

Makes no sense

 

[csmat99]

Everyone wants vax and treatments without the shakedown periods

People don’t realize that other vaccines didn’t develop In months...and if it could at all be possible, why would the drug companies take longer to get a product into the market?

Makes no sense

And there may never be a vaccine. HIV still doesn't have one and it's been 40 years. Effective treatment is more likely.

 

[bpiper]

You can tell that to the Managers and HR still on salary and with all the staff that are hired. They are only awaiting the legal permission to open.

Six flags also has similar plans to open parks but I'm but that big a of fan of them nor do I believe any of their parks has such a big presence like Cedar Point (It basically runs/controls the town of Sandusky)

From growing up across the bay from the Point, I got to say no to that. There have been plenty of times the city has stood up to Cedar Point and said NO. All of the restaurants & hotels are outside of the city limits in Perkins township, they get that money. Only the Point itself is in the city limits. The fights over traffic and who should pay for improvements were legendary when I was growing up.

 

[bpiper]

I was thinking about this scenario for a public bathroom. Will they just have every other urinal closed? I don’t know of any bathroom where the urinals are 6 feet apart.

In the Costco I was in yesterday, they installed Plexiglas between the urinal's with yellow tape on the edges to mark them to that they aren't hit. They did the same at the sinks.

 

[GoofGoof]

On the topic of choosing between health and the economy here’s an interesting read. This study showed that following the 1918 pandemic places with more restrictions and shut downs faired better economically than those which didn’t act quickly or shut things down for as long. Just one study based on a pandemic from 100+ years ago but interesting. On a positive note they point out that despite a major economic slowdown during the pandemic the roaring 20s rolled in with a particularly strong economy. It didn’t take 5 years back then for the economy to recover.

Will the post-coronavirus economy come roaring back? Lessons from the 1918 pandemic and the Roaring '20s

From 1918 to 1920, the Spanish flu pandemic killed hundreds of thousands of Americans and millions worldwide. Yet the U.S. emerged with a roaring economy in what became known as the Roaring ’20s. What lessons can we take away from that crisis 100 years ago?

www.yahoo.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Covid19 is way less dangerous than the Spanish flu and we also didn't have modern medicine.

The article and my post have nothing to do with comparing the viruses themselves or how deadly they are. I have no interest in debating that. The study is all about the economic impact of the previous pandemic and the economic impact of a particular government response in the medium to long term. The point is the areas that had less restrictive measures or re-opened things faster did not fair any better economically vs areas that did. The opposite was true in some cases. It doesn’t mean that will be the case today, but it’s a historical perspective on the current debate.

 

[CLEtoWDW]

On the topic of choosing between health and the economy here’s an interesting read. This study showed that following the 1918 pandemic places with more restrictions and shut downs faired better economically than those which didn’t act quickly or shut things down for as long. Just one study based on a pandemic from 100+ years ago but interesting. On a positive note they point out that despite a major economic slowdown during the pandemic the roaring 20s rolled in with a particularly strong economy. It didn’t take 5 years back then for the economy to recover.

Will the post-coronavirus economy come roaring back? Lessons from the 1918 pandemic and the Roaring '20s

From 1918 to 1920, the Spanish flu pandemic killed hundreds of thousands of Americans and millions worldwide. Yet the U.S. emerged with a roaring economy in what became known as the Roaring ’20s. What lessons can we take away from that crisis 100 years ago?

www.yahoo.com

Our economy in 1918 versus 2020 is like comparing an Apple Newton to today’s iPhone. Yes, those that took action in 1918 recovered faster but keep in mind that the economy was mostly industrial based. Today we live in a service based economy.

 

[GoofGoof]

Spanish Flu was unique in that it killed a lot of healthy young people starting out their careers. And considering other advancements we've made in health, it's a bit difficult to connect to this current event.

From my understanding the level of shutdown/lockdown is unprecedented and we have no historical events to compare that to. And that's just our reaction to Covid19, not the virus it self.

Our economy in 1918 versus 2020 is like comparing an Apple Newton to today’s iPhone. Yes, those that took action in 1918 recovered faster but keep in mind that the economy was mostly industrial based. Today we live in a service based economy.

As I said it’s just one study based on a worldwide pandemic that happened 100 years ago. If you want to dismiss it outright because it doesn’t fit your narrative that’s your prerogative. I found it interesting and relevant to the current discussion on when to open things up.

 

[ToTBellHop]

And yet, I'm already starting to see alarming numbers of posts on Facebook from people who are adamantly against this Covid vaccine, and have committed to not getting when it is available. UGH.

I think it should be compulsory for things like school, boarding a plane, and procreating.