WDW Reopening Estimates

[realBobChapek]

17th May will be a special day : )

My insider source has told me that HKDL is going to conduct reopening simulation tests very soon.

Looks like Shanghai and Hong Kong are possibly opening May 17th. They both closed in late January so based on WDW closing about 7 weeks later, I'm guessing it may reopen around July 4th.

 

[HansGruber]

Sure there is...

Our mitigation methods have achieved the goal of preventing our health Care system from becoming overburdened (thus far) with plenty of capacity to spare, and our testing is starting to ramp up (much too slowly, but it's growing dramatically in some places).

It may not happen, but it's not hard to see WDW opening before November if things continue to de-escalate. It's certainly possible (for better or for worse).

Apparently, you didn't read my entire post (conveniently quoting only the most polarizing part)....

As we currently understand the virus, reopening the park will most likely lead to an increase in infection rate. What does "de-escalation" have to do with this?! Mitigation methods are a short term solution until a long term solution can be discovered. We currently don't have any long term solutions.

 

[TrojanUSC]

Looks like Shanghai and Hong Kong are possibly opening May 17th. They both closed in late January so based on WDW closing about 7 weeks later, I'm guessing it may reopen around July 4th.

China had a much stricter lockdown and managed the virus much better than we did in the end.

 

[Getachew]

Looks like Shanghai and Hong Kong are possibly opening May 17th. They both closed in late January so based on WDW closing about 7 weeks later, I'm guessing it may reopen around July 4th.

Are they? Has the company confirmed Mr. Bob?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

China had a much stricter lockdown and managed the virus much better than we did in the end.

Sorry. I'm not believing China's numbers AT ALL.

 

[twebber55]

Sorry. I'm not believing China's numbers AT ALL.

at all they are lying
now they definitely had a tight lock down but the numbers the are using are laughably incorrect

 

[realBobChapek]

Are they? Has the company confirmed Mr. Bob?

Not yet.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

Apparently, you didn't read my entire post (conveniently quoting only the most polarizing part)....

The part I quoted was your conclusion statement.. it was the point you were trying to make. I didn't change the context of what you were trying to get across.

As we currently understand the virus, reopening the park will most likely lead to an increase in infection rate.

"Apparently" you type with invisible ink, because that's not what your original post said... you weren't talking about increasing infection rates... you were making a point about the parks not being able to open.. here:

There are way too many factors working against Disney. There's no way these parks open without substantial knowledge attainment of the virus or ability to fight it.

Given our knowledge and medical arsenal as of today, no way the parks open within the next 6 months.

To your final point

What does "de-escalation" have to do with this?! Mitigation methods are a short term solution until a long term solution can be discovered. We currently don't have any long term solutions.

I'm simply commenting on your conclusion to say that even if we don't have a big change in our understanding of the virus, there's still a decent chance that WDW will open before November, vaccine or not. Whether it should or not can be debated, but I think an opening past your proposed timeline is getting into worst-case scenario territory.

 

[RollerCoaster]

China had a much stricter lockdown and managed the virus much better than we did in the end.

You absolutely do not know that. Stricker lockdown yes, but managed it better- we absolutely do not know. You can't trust any of the information coming out of China. Just knowing how this spreads makes you question the infection rate on China. The Chinese government is going to do everything they can to withhold the truth.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We have never developed a safe and effective vaccine for any Coronavirus. So we are most likely talking years for a vaccine. Antibodies fade in less than 18 months from all other Coronaviruses meaning any vaccine will only be protective for a limited time if we ever develop one.

I actually think some moderately effective drug/therapy cocktails would do the trick from a perception standpoint...perhaps in combination with a moderately accurate vaccine such as flu one or pneumonia vax.

 

[Getachew]

Shanghai opening on May 11th.

 

[TrojanUSC]

Sorry. I'm not believing China's numbers AT ALL.

That’s fine but Disney is - hence the reopening.

 

[Getachew]

What I find interesting is no mention of Springs opening, though some people here believe it will be next week.

 

[TrojanUSC]

What I find interesting is no mention of Springs opening, though some people here believe it will be next week.

If DS opens, it will be a small reopening of only limited restaurants to appease third party operators. I have a feeling they won’t want to promote that given the unknowns and what that says about the parks.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

What I find interesting is no mention of Springs opening, though some people here believe it will be next week.

See the report from Disney's Chief Medical Officer:

Link

We’re looking at all of our locations and how best to begin the reopening process, including a gradual reopening and/or partial reopening of certain locations. For example, the opening of retail and dining locations prior to the opening of our theme parks.

 

[brianstl]

That’s fine but Disney is - hence the reopening.

Funny that you think Disney had a say in the opening or the closing of that park.

 

[Getachew]

If DS opens, it will be a small reopening of only limited restaurants to appease third party operators. I have a feeling they won’t want to promote that given the unknowns and what that says about the parks.

If it's soon though, we should be hearing something. At least with regards to CM's going back.

 

[Getachew]

See the report from Disney's Chief Medical Officer:

Link

We’re looking at all of our locations and how best to begin the reopening process, including a gradual reopening and/or partial reopening of certain locations. For example, the opening of retail and dining locations prior to the opening of our theme parks.

Right, but that doesn't tell us much other than they plan to re-open it before the parks. You have some people believe it will be open next week.

 

[cmwade77]

Doubtful. Also, I heard the stuff you are mentioning has been there awhile.

Nope, it hasn't.

 

[CLEtoWDW]

Interesting how Chapek stated that all other parks will follow the operating procedure that’s being put in place in Shanghai. I really like the “reservation only” attendance idea and firmly believe that guests that attend WDW under this procedure will really like how manageable the crowds are during this time. I’d assume resort guests get first crack at attendance reservations?