WDW Reopening Estimates

[annabanana]

So I was wondering what the general consensus of us Disney fans is for when Disney World will reopen.
Please take part in the poll for your guess and feel free to comment.

There will possibly be a vaccine available in September. I think after everyone gets vaccinated it will open, not before.

 

[ddavies89]

My guess will be:
Disney Springs will open the middle of June but all the restaurants will need a reservation and quick service will be take out only. Then the start of July the shops will open
Parks will then open to Florida residents with an annual pass the middle of July (No Water Parks)
3 Weeks after that they will open to annual pass members from across the United States or worldwide (No Water Parks)
3 Weeks after that the parks will open to those who are staying on property (Hotels will be limited to 60% capacity) (Water Parks open at 50% Capacity)
3 Weeks after that open the parks and water parks to everyone but limit the amount of guests who aren't staying on Disney property (Up Hotel capacity to 80%) Up Water Park Capacity to 75%) Keep this like this until the end of the year and into next year. I would say opening ours should be 9am till 7pm
Then from February 2021 open up completely but make sure cleaning is happening more than usual. Limit parades and fire work displays

Special events like the halloween party, the Christmas party and the late night event either don't run them or limit the capacity to less than 1,000 people don't do parades and firework displays.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Actually plenty DO seriously think that. Including Heraheypark, and others, that are saying they plan on early June openings.

Data supports that line of thought, pretty succinctly at this point.

No data supports that. It's a wait and see based on current cases, etc. Lots of parks may SAY early June, but it just won't happen, particularly with CDC guidelines in place. Disney SAID they were closing for two weeks, how did that work out?

 

[Djsfantasi]

There will possibly be a vaccine available in September. I think after everyone gets vaccinated it will open, not before.

Where did you get the September date? My sources said 12-16 months. That puts a vaccine out to March 2021. I’ve yet to see a reliable projection for a vaccine, before then.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Where did you get the September date? My sources said 12-16 months. That puts a vaccine out to March 2021. I’ve yet to see a reliable projection for a vaccine, before then.

Yeah even if a vaccine is approved in Sept (a LONG shot) it would take many months to get it produced at scale.

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

Additionally there will be a spike in cases regardless what state reopens or when it reopens. That is known and was expected by all health experts. Social distancing and shelter in place was designed to prevent overwhelming hospitals so they have time to prepare for any possible surges. We have done that. Social distancing was never meant to eliminate the virus and in fact if you go back and listen to epidemiologists - flattening the curve doesn’t reduce the #of infected - it spreads them out over a longer period of time. That has happened.

Terrific summary of the viewpoint many of us share.

Go back and read articles from mid-March like this one and you'll find the justifications for the lockdowns were all about flattening the curve to avoid hospital overload. Now we sit in late April, still locked down, and the justification has morphed into "we must stay locked down in order to eliminate the virus".

 

[Djsfantasi]

There will possibly be a vaccine available in September. I think after everyone gets vaccinated it will open, not before.

Not a chance in hell.

No vaccine until next year, March or April, likely September-November.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

WDW is taking bookings where the start date is June 1, so until they change that, lets assume they will open June 1.

Lets say they want to limit capacity. What would be the "limited capacity" for the Magic Kingdom?
What is that magic number?
It CANT be numbers as large as the Christmas and halloween parties, those are MOBBED!

The next question is will/how will Disney limit capacity? OK block resident annuals. Is this enough? I have seen posters that say APs equate to rounding errors they are so insignificant.

Only admit onsite guests?
What about the off site hotels that Disney partnered with that gives Extra magic hours and 60 day FP bookings, are they in?

Lets say that's it. Allow only on site and the 13 offsite partner hotels.

This still brings us back to the first question. How will Disney limit the capacity to a given park on a given day?

The more you think about it, the more questions come up....

I would be shocked if Disney reopens with limited capacity. "Social distancing" is not possible in a theme park environment, period. They should either open accepting that fact or remain closed.

There will possibly be a vaccine available in September. I think after everyone gets vaccinated it will open, not before.

Both of these sentences are very wrong.

 

[marni1971]

I would be shocked if Disney reopens with limited capacity. "Social distancing" is not possible in a theme park environment, period. They should either open accepting that fact or remain closed..

Expect there to be some new normals for a while. After all, we play by their rules remember.

 

[peter11435]

There will possibly be a vaccine available in September. I think after everyone gets vaccinated it will open, not before.

It is unlikely everyone will ever be vaccinated. Even if a vaccine were available in September (it won’t be) it will be well into next year before anything resembling a majority has been vaccinated. And it will likely be well into next year before a vaccine is actually available if ever. They won’t wait for a vaccine to reopen.

 

[peter11435]

won't they need more time than this? reinspect rides, any maintenance, restock restaurants, etc.

Rides haven’t been left to ruin. There will obviously need to be some inspection and maintenance but they already do this extensively every night. A week will be more than enough time. Restocking will be one of the biggest hurdles due to supply chain interruptions. But 1-2 weeks will be more than sufficient to get things up and running.

 

[DisneyCane]

Sorry but there's a well-reasoned, phased plan toward reopening. Colorado is largely following this. Why is it not being followed in GA? Bowling alleys and movie theaters? Really?

Phase 1 says:

LARGE VENUES (e.g., sit-down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship) can operate under strict physical distancing protocols.

The only thing possibly not being followed in GA is the gating criteria.

 

[Run4DisneyFun]

Just a thought...

Shanghai shut down January 25th. The Viral response (big in one area, for us New York for them Wuhan, smaller in the rest of the country) is basically the same here as there. Our peak in New York has just been much bigger. So if we assume a similar pattern it is probably a good bet the parks will follow a similar pattern as well.

Shanghai reopened restaurants a couple of weeks ago and reports say they are working right now on protocols for social distancing for fireworks and shows. Tentatively expecting them to reopen in mid-May is not a stretch.

So...Jan 25 to mid-May is 3.75 months, with restaurants reopening at 3 months. For WDW that would mean Disney Springs and some limited resort opening in mid to late June with the parks opening mid to end of July.

We will learn a lot from what they do in May in Shanghai. I would not be at all surprised if they do advanced contact tracking using our magic bands or the My Disney Experience app, thermometer checks and designated standing spots for the fireworks, parades and shows. This will require the parks to operate at some percentage (say 50%) of their normal capacity. They may even require us to book our park in advance, with limited capacity available. The restrictions would be gradually eased through the time until a vaccine is freely available, and tightened if there were any flare-ups.

 

[WDWTrojan]

The employees of those bowling alleys and movie theaters would also like their livelihoods back. They have shut things down for a month in order to flatten the curve. Well, the curve has been flattened and our hospitals are not overwhelmed. So why are we still in a lock down?

Whether it's a movie theater or a nail salon, people will be reminded to wash their hands often and not touch their face, and at some point you have to trust people with freedom.

the employees of those movie theaters and bowling alleys will be a lot worse off when they close due to a lack of business or hospitalized due to COVID-19, rather than being closed to a government order.

without opening in a strategic, steady manner and without proper testing, we are going to see an even bigger spike than the first one, leading to another shutdown.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Phase 1 says:

LARGE VENUES (e.g., sit-down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship) can operate under strict physical distancing protocols.

The only thing possibly not being followed in GA is the gating criteria.

the gating criteria is the most critical! especially as lots of evidence continues to gather that COVID-19 can spread via air conditioners in businesses. Social distancing seems like it’s less and less important to reducing spread every day.

Air-conditioning spread the coronavirus to 9 people sitting near an infected person in a restaurant, researchers say. It has huge implications for the service industry.

As restaurants slowly reopen, they will likely have to reduce capacity, and patrons may have a limit on how long they can stay and eat.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Run4DisneyFun]

the employees of those movie theaters and bowling alleys will be a lot worse off when they close due to a lack of business or hospitalized due to COVID-19, rather than being closed to a government order.

without opening in a strategic, steady manner and without proper testing, we are going to see an even bigger spike than the first one, leading to another shutdown.

There is a lot of discussion on this, much if it heated. That said, there are a lot of essential businesses still running in the country, with relatively low spread. There are ways to socially distance and be properly sanitary even in bowling alleys and movie theaters. If they don’t try to jam them full, and people abide by the rules in terms of social distancing, things can be made much safer than back in the days of “see how many people we can jam in without cleaning in between”. I expect that we will see theaters with 50% capacity and extensive sanitation between shows. They may require patrons to wear masks. All of which will reduce transmission.

 

[DisneyCane]

the gating criteria is the most critical! especially as lots of evidence continues to gather that COVID-19 can spread via air conditioners in businesses. Social distancing seems like it’s less and less important to reducing spread every day.

Air-conditioning spread the coronavirus to 9 people sitting near an infected person in a restaurant, researchers say. It has huge implications for the service industry.

As restaurants slowly reopen, they will likely have to reduce capacity, and patrons may have a limit on how long they can stay and eat.

www.businessinsider.com

Do you have a picture of the restaurant and air conditioner vent in question? Or know what volume and velocity of air was coming out of it? It makes a difference because a vent on a wall blowing right onto somebody is far different than normal air conditioning with vents far from the people. There aren't too many places where it feels like there is a breeze from the AC.

I'm not sure why that one story of "lots of evidence" makes the gating criteria more important. Also, I said that Georgia "may" be ignoring that because the Governor said that the daily new cases many times were actually new several days before due to the test to result lag. I don't know and haven't seen the data but it is possible that they have had a 14 day downward trend if you tie the result to the symptom onset.

 

[Giss Neric]

I imagine the bag checks/temperature checks/added security before entering the parks will just be like waiting in line for Peter Pan's Flight or Mine Train. Prepare to wait a long time.

 

[VaderTron]

the gating criteria is the most critical! especially as lots of evidence continues to gather that COVID-19 can spread via air conditioners in businesses. Social distancing seems like it’s less and less important to reducing spread every day set at far too low a bar with 6ft buffers.

Air-conditioning spread the coronavirus to 9 people sitting near an infected person in a restaurant, researchers say. It has huge implications for the service industry.

As restaurants slowly reopen, they will likely have to reduce capacity, and patrons may have a limit on how long they can stay and eat.

www.businessinsider.com

FTFY

 

[tecowdw]

People will have to know the risks, as there are every day in many regards every time you leave your house. Then you make the decision as to what is best for you and your family.

Exactly! Every person will need to make the decision for themselves if they are comfortable with the risk of going to a theme park (or theater or club or sporting event, etc.). The reality is the park experience will be very different for awhile and Disney will never be able to eliminate the risk completely - both out of their control. That is why we all have to decide for ourselves - both health, comfort and value wise.

No matter when Disney opens and no matter what they do, many many people will feel they should have done something different. Disney is right now only primarily concerned about the average guest feeling comfortable enough to visit as that will drive the attendance trend probably for the rest of this year. They know they will not be targeting the people that would have no interest in visiting during the course of the pandemic. So by nature of this, it will only attract the people that are willing to accept some risk and the ones that feel there is no risk. Disney just wants to figure out where that "comfort" level is for people for now and operate accordingly.