WDW Reopening Estimates

[Epcotbob]

Anyone know if there is a plan for just total shutdown of the parks business permanently? There’s gotta be right? They have to be running the numbers on that.

I highly doubt it. If they do it would be called the “Apocalyptic, mankind returns to the Stone Age scenario”

 

[CastAStone]

Anyone know if there is a plan for just total shutdown of the parks business permanently? There’s gotta be right? They have to be running the numbers on that.

Why would they be considering that?

 

[marni1971]

There will be a "parade" and likely fireworks one night a week..

A guess?

 

[peter11435]

Anyone know if there is a plan for just total shutdown of the parks business permanently? There’s gotta be right? They have to be running the numbers on that.

No, why would there be.

 

[icc2515]

When WDW does open, does anyone think there’s a chance resort amenities and entertainment will be improved or expanded? More kids events, more boat rentals, more evening shows? This would be a great way to “pull” guests back to the resorts from the parks for better distancing.

My guess would be that there will not be anymore amenities and entertainment. There will be lower attendance per guidelines so therefore less money coming in. I suspect that they will be cutting amenities and entertainment to the bone. As for boat rentals, I have never seen them run out of the little boats for rent. I'm pretty sure that they will be there as they make money off of them and distancing should not be a problem. Speaking of the little boats, when I was younger they were called water sprites are they still called this?

 

[wdw71fan]

Anyone know if there is a plan for just total shutdown of the parks business permanently? There’s gotta be right? They have to be running the numbers on that.

No. That is not something is being contemplated.

What is being contemplated is reopening as soon as safely possible with the proper measures in place to ease guests back into a 'Disney is an Escape' mindset. Can't transport someone to another world when there are reminders everywhere (masks, signage, etc) that the real world is inside the parks right now. Illusion is very difficult, but we'll all be better for the efforts.

 

[YankeeMouse]

My guess would be that there will not be anymore amenities and entertainment. There will be lower attendance per guidelines so therefore less money coming in. I suspect that they will be cutting amenities and entertainment to the bone. As for boat rentals, I have never seen them run out of the little boats for rent. I'm pretty sure that they will be there as they make money off of them and distancing should not be a problem. Speaking of the little boats, when I was younger they were called water sprites are they still called this?

They switched to Water Mice years ago, but not sure if that is current terminology.

 

[Jrb1979]

No. That is not something is being contemplated.

What is being contemplated is reopening as soon as safely possible with the proper measures in place to ease guests back into a 'Disney is an Escape' mindset. Can't transport someone to another world when there are reminders everywhere (masks, signage, etc) that the real world is inside the parks right now. Illusion is very difficult, but we'll all be better for the efforts.

People will just have to get used to Disney not being an escape for awhile. Its the world we live in now. Social distancing will be around til a vaccine or treatment is available.

 

[Touchdown]

There’s going to be fireworks every night or not at all, having it on select nights only encourages people to go on those nights with the show which is exactly what Disney wants to avoid.

 

[Parker in NYC]

No. The nightmare scenario is a big outbreak among CMs which then spreads to guests.

They would MUCH rather stay closed another month or two than risk having to close again or deal with the bad press of an outbreak.

I keep saying that a big breakout among CMs, alone, is their biggest fear. If you have no workforce, you have no park.

 

[DisneyCane]

It is very good to see nationwide deaths declining and hopefully this trend continues. However, take NY and NJ out of the mix and it's a different story. Just looking at FL covid deaths, we are still seeing an increasing number of deaths per day. That needs to change. Not sure if WDW wants to open while deaths are increasing.

Florida's deaths are roughly flat over the past month with small day to day variations. If anything, there as been a slight decline since the beginning of may.

The "issue" with Florida is that the state never really had a "curve." After the initial ramp up of confirmed cases (partially due to the ramp up in testing), the cases per day has been relatively flat. It's a lot easier to have consistent declines if there was a spike to begin with like NY and NJ.

 

[DisneyCane]

1 in 415 New York City residents has died of coronavirus (8,300,000 residents divided by 20,000 deaths). A recent study indicated that 80% of NYC residents showed no antibodies.

I don't know that any of these "random sample" antibody studies can be predictive. I think the only way to know how many people have antibodies will be to test a very large percentage of people. I don't think normal sampling applies here because the likelihood of getting infected isn't completely random.

 

[CastAStone]

I don't know that any of these "random sample" antibody studies can be predictive. I think the only way to know how many people have antibodies will be to test a very large percentage of people. I don't think normal sampling applies here because the likelihood of getting infected isn't completely random.

Yes, there is certainly more learning to be done.

 

[havoc315]

I don't know that any of these "random sample" antibody studies can be predictive. I think the only way to know how many people have antibodies will be to test a very large percentage of people. I don't think normal sampling applies here because the likelihood of getting infected isn't completely random.

A very large random sample is a very accurate to look at the totality of the population. Sure, it can be off by a few points. But if you test tens of thousands of people randomly, and you get a hit rate of 20%... It eliminates any chance that the "real" number is 90%.

So we know the fatality rate for the whole city would be 0.24%. So even if the infection rate was 100%, then it would be twice as deadly as the flu. But we know the infection rate is nowhere near 100%. If you assume the 20% antibody rate as being the most accurate, then the mortality rate of Covid would be about 1.2%. But even if we assume that 20% rate is a bit off... maybe it's more like 25-30%.. maybe you should account for the fact that those most susceptible were already infect... you still have a dangerously high mortality rate of somewhere between 0.5% and 1%.
Meaning -- If heard immunity requires 60% of the population to become infected, it means unchecked, the infection would kill 1-2 million Americans.
We appear to be on our way to 120,000 to 200,000 in this "first wave" alone. What's dangerous, there is a lot of room for further waves before we get to anything close to herd immunity.

 

[MarvelCharacterNerd]

When WDW does open, does anyone think there’s a chance resort amenities and entertainment will be improved or expanded? More kids events, more boat rentals, more evening shows? This would be a great way to “pull” guests back to the resorts from the parks for better distancing.

Not when some - like Yeehaa Bob for example - are already SRO. I don't see any way they could currently bring him back initially at all given the size of the lounge. Even if they removed half the tables, people would crowd in and stand just to see him. No Bob would be another reason for me to put off a trip. He's a major highlight.

 

[MagicWDI]

Florida's deaths are roughly flat over the past month with small day to day variations. If anything, there as been a slight decline since the beginning of may.

The "issue" with Florida is that the state never really had a "curve." After the initial ramp up of confirmed cases (partially due to the ramp up in testing), the cases per day has been relatively flat. It's a lot easier to have consistent declines if there was a spike to begin with like NY and NJ.

Hopefully early May is indeed a peak. Hopefully they continue to decline.

 

[Astrotrain]

Florida's deaths are roughly flat over the past month with small day to day variations. If anything, there as been a slight decline since the beginning of may.

The "issue" with Florida is that the state never really had a "curve." After the initial ramp up of confirmed cases (partially due to the ramp up in testing), the cases per day has been relatively flat. It's a lot easier to have consistent declines if there was a spike to begin with like NY and NJ.

The issue with Florida was that cases were underreported. It's been confirmed that many more people contracted the virus in Florida as early as January. It's difficult to say just how many people have had it here.

That said - I live 10 min from the parks and most people here have been really cautious. Everyone wearing masks, practicing social distancing, etc. We want our parks back open and we know the best way to do that is to be as careful as we can.

 

[WondersOfLife]

Again... nobody knows anything about anything.

 

[wdw71fan]

Again... nobody knows anything about anything.

Got a better chance of finding Buzzy's clothes

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Maybe Pence’s visit on Wednesday will stir the pot on an opening date?