WDW Reopening Estimates

[Disstevefan1]

It won't be a MOB scene if Disney truly restricts access on who can be on property and in parks. They aren't going to be letting people line up like SW ride opening.

Hope you are right. Let’s hope Disney restricts access in a fair way (whatever that is). I guess we will see. The local Disney Vloggers will there for sure to cover it.

 

[Getachew]

Not as long as you might think.

You sure?

 

[Chomama]

Hearing some murmurings of Disney springs restaurants coming online soon with limited capacity. No retail. And could be totally untrue

 

[Dan Deesnee]

There is nearly no scenario that's likely to happen that would put Disney opening any later than by the end of June.

They're bleeding money they need the parks open and I would assume that they probably think they can keep most people relatively safe. It really is as simple as if you're not comfortable going don't go.

You can't use the argument that, well the workers have to go back too then, because anywhere they go work, at Disney or outside of Disney, in similar jobs is going to have interactions with people.

I fully expect to be going on my trip in late May. I'm already prepared to move it to sometime in June. but I see almost no likely scenario where we're not able to go by the end of June.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

There is nearly no scenario that's likely to happen that would put Disney opening any later than by the end of June.

They're bleeding money they need the parks open and I would assume that they probably think they can keep most people relatively safe. It really is as simple as if you're not comfortable going don't go.

You can't use the argument that, well the workers have to go back too then, because anywhere they go work, at Disney or outside of Disney, in similar jobs is going to have interactions with people.

I fully expect to be going on my trip in late May. I'm already prepared to move it to sometime in June. but I see almost no likely scenario where we're not able to go by the end of June.

It's a near-certainty that your trip this month will not happen.

 

[TrojanUSC]

The most logical approach should require that WDW first open to guests staying on property.

There are 40K rooms on property. At an average of 4 persons per room that's approximately 160K guests.

The four primary attractions at WDW (MK, EPCOT, DHS and AK) have a rough capacity of 330K.

Everyone staying on site would therefore fit in the four attractions and still stay below to 50% capacity limit in the Phased reopening guidelines.

As another Phase is announced, WDW could then reopen parking lots on a staggered basis, much like they limit access to the parks when they reach capacity during the holidays.

50% capacity is literally an average summer day. There are approximately zero ways to socially distance in that scenario.

There is nearly no scenario that's likely to happen that would put Disney opening any later than by the end of June.

They're bleeding money they need the parks open and I would assume that they probably think they can keep most people relatively safe. It really is as simple as if you're not comfortable going don't go.

You can't use the argument that, well the workers have to go back too then, because anywhere they go work, at Disney or outside of Disney, in similar jobs is going to have interactions with people.

I fully expect to be going on my trip in late May. I'm already prepared to move it to sometime in June. but I see almost no likely scenario where we're not able to go by the end of June.

Not entirely sure it's up to Disney. Any "scenario" is dictated by the virus. Are we going to see a spike in Phase 1 in Florida and/or the rest of the country?

 

[TeriofTerror]

The most logical approach should require that WDW first open to guests staying on property.

There are 40K rooms on property. At an average of 4 persons per room that's approximately 160K guests.

The four primary attractions at WDW (MK, EPCOT, DHS and AK) have a rough capacity of 330K.

Everyone staying on site would therefore fit in the four attractions and still stay below to 50% capacity limit in the Phased reopening guidelines.

As another Phase is announced, WDW could then reopen parking lots on a staggered basis, much like they limit access to the parks when they reach capacity during the holidays.

According to this article in the Sentinel, max capacity for MK and Epcot is around 50,000 each:

DISNEY HITS MAXIMUM CAPACITY

Walt Disney World officials would love to see the New Year keep cash registers ringing the way 2001 did on the way out.

www-orlandosentinel-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[Jtdancy]

According to this article in the Sentinel, max capacity for MK and Epcot is around 50,000 each:

DISNEY HITS MAXIMUM CAPACITY

Walt Disney World officials would love to see the New Year keep cash registers ringing the way 2001 did on the way out.

www-orlandosentinel-com.cdn.ampproject.org

Pretty sure I've heard @lentesta mention on the Disney Dish podcast a few times that MK capacity is closer to 90,000. That is probably maxed out, Phase 4, New Year's eve, aka 100% anti-social distancing. A personal guess is that they could fit maybe 20 - 25K in MK and still have some semblance on social distancing in place?

 

[TrojanUSC]

According to this article in the Sentinel, max capacity for MK and Epcot is around 50,000 each:

DISNEY HITS MAXIMUM CAPACITY

Walt Disney World officials would love to see the New Year keep cash registers ringing the way 2001 did on the way out.

www-orlandosentinel-com.cdn.ampproject.org

Definitely more for Epcot and MK.

 

[Epcotbob]

There was an article in Forbes yesterday that sort of confirms why I think the parks will open fairly soon. It says “Shelter in place is ending, whether governments want it or not”. Granted, Disney and other businesses can stay closed as long as they want, but the reopening of the economy is well under way and accelerating.

Apple Data Shows Shelter-In-Place Is Ending, Whether Governments Want It To Or Not

Bye-bye shelter-in-place. Hello re-opening.

www.forbes.com

 

[TrojanUSC]

There was an article in Forbes yesterday that sort of confirms why I think the parks will open fairly soon. It says “Shelter in place is ending, whether governments want it or not”. Granted, Disney and other businesses can stay closed as long as they want, but the reopening of the economy is well under way and accelerating.

Apple Data Shows Shelter-In-Place Is Ending, Whether Governments Want It To Or Not

Bye-bye shelter-in-place. Hello re-opening.

www.forbes.com

Shelter in place is ending because people are getting antsy and many aren't really able to correlate the fact the virus has been kept in check thanks to these orders.

In a month from now we could be looking at a very different situation regarding the prevalence of the virus in Florida and nationally.

Disney has no interest in opening to appease people who are antsy to get out of the house, they have an interest in opening when it is safe and won't lead to an outbreak among their guests/cast.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Shelter in place is ending because people are getting antsy and many aren't really able to correlate the fact the virus has been kept in check thanks to these orders.

In a month from now we could be looking at a very different situation regarding the prevalence of the virus in Florida and nationally.

Disney has no interest in opening to appease people who are antsy to get out of the house, they have an interest in opening when it is safe and won't lead to an outbreak among their guests/cast.

That's what I'm worried about...humans aren't nearly patient enough these days for us to do a good job of keeping the curve flattened.

 

[Jrb1979]

That's what I'm worried about...humans aren't nearly patient enough these days for us to do a good job of keeping the curve flattened.

People can't even follow the 6 ft rule as is.

 

[hopemax]

That's what I'm worried about...humans aren't nearly patient enough these days for us to do a good job of keeping the curve flattened.

I hope it's not as bad as we are worried about, at least for many areas. It doesn't take *that* many people to fill up a space, and everyone is going to a lot less spaces. That article even showed that while people are moving around more, they are still staying away from the "riskier" places. People are driving around, just to drive around, so they need gas. More people are getting takeout and curbside. I think the fatigue also has a bunch of people running out "all at once." But we don't really know if people are going to continue being "out and about," or if it's one of those cases where it sounds better than it actually is. You know how sometimes you eliminate a food and then when you taste it again, it isn't as appetizing as it used to be. Or once you satisfy a craving you don't need it for awhile. Also, I have a small list of things that when our metro area reopens some stuff, we want to get done. But it's not "for fun" lazy shopping, it's the same as grocery store, run in, run out or curbside and then be done with it for many weeks.

There are definitely places where I am more worried. We know the "lines" along where this appears to be breaking. In some places, they will be a bigger problem than others. This group will be the ones that want to get out and stay out, engage in those riskier activities, and we're all waiting to see what happens. But if the majority continue to avoid the places with higher risk, Disney stays closed.

 

[Herdman]

After listening to a lot of different opinions and ideas from people that have at least some insight to the situation I think we'll see a slow reopening begin in June at Disney Springs. Their restaurants open, then the next phase will be restaurants at the resorts. At some point then the parks begin to systematically open, maybe late June-July. Probably only open to Florida residents and maybe resort guests to begin with. I think each resort could be assigned a park they go to for the day. Contemporary and Polynesian, you get to go to the MK. POFQ and Riverside, you get to go to Epcot, but if you're staying in a resort you will be guaranteed to go to a park. That way, they can better control how many people are in each park.

Disney is not dumb, and they've been told by the task force that they can re-open on their own terms and schedule. I just find it hard to believe with the knowledge we've all had about the virus since March/early April that Disney would go to the trouble of re-scheduling all these trips that were cancelled and offer a free dining package to them from June-September, then turn around and have to reschedule some/all of them a second time. You know with as big as they are and how much they and the related travel industries mean to the Florida economy that they they just didn't pull June - September out of the air without having some sort of inside knowledge of how things would be re-opened within the state.

Just my opinion on how I think things could unfold. I guess we'll all see.

 

[mhaftman7]

I wonder if the resort capacity will be limited to start. Between opening uncertainty and cancellations/re-scheduling, some resorts may have more openings than others. I wonder if “Magical Experiences” occur to even out resorts in proximity to one another.

Hear me out. I don’t think that when Disney opens, certain resorts stay closed. My thought is for example if Pop/AoA are 80% or so booked and CBR or RR are only 60% booked, could “random” guests receive “magical experiences“ and get an upgrade in resort to help keep guests-to-occupancy ratios balanced. Basically moving guests to keep localized demands down: bussing, pools, food courts/restaurants, and check-in/check-out/concierge services. I think those demands are the biggest concern they have. They can limit Park capacity to maintain open space, but during the day those four are probably bigger concerns than ride queues.

Ultimately, it’s a shell game that prevents large groups of people from standing around in localized common areas. How they’d pull it off is another question. Do you centralize by resort geographic location? By party size? By special event/occasion? By resort tier?

Thoughts?

 

[Thelazer]

If the park down the street is any indication, June 1st things open.
Maybe things open May 20th that are food and beverage only as a warm up.

 

[DisneyCane]

Disney has no interest in opening to appease people who are antsy to get out of the house, they have an interest in opening when it is safe and won't lead to an outbreak among their guests/cast.

Based upon the data, it doesn't seem that the theme park environment is conducive to significant virus spread even though there are many reasons that I would think it would be conducive. Between WDW, Universal and Sea World there must be over 100,000 CMs (or whatever Universal and Sea World call their employees). The last week before they all closed, there had to be a few hundred thousand visitors to all the parks (non Disney included). Many of those visitors in February especially were from New York due to their mid winter break. We know that the virus was spreading in New York in February.

Yet, given all that potential, neither Orange nor Osceola county had a significant outbreak. In both counties other than a few "spike" days of test result dumps, they don't really have a curve, they have an ant hill. Both counties have (and have had) low positive test rates. Contrasted with Broward and especially Miami-Dade, it is clear that something is very different and that the environment in those two counties is more conducive to spread than the Orlando area counties.

Whatever the reason, the data shows that there doesn't seem to have been significant spread due to tens of thousands of visitors and employees interacting in theme parks in central FL. I'm not saying there is no risk of spread at WDW or another theme park. I'm just saying that the risk seems pretty low given the available data.

I'm not sure why this is the case because everything about a theme park (and especially WDW) seems like it would be the perfect environment for the virus to spread like wildfire. There is packed transit, disgusting surfaces everywhere, standing in queues for hours in some cases in close proximity to other people.

It's not just the confirmed case curve and the testing that indicates the outbreak was far less severe than I would have expected around WDW. The syndromic metrics don't show nearly the spike that the southeast Florida counties show.

 

[TrojanUSC]

Based upon the data, it doesn't seem that the theme park environment is conducive to significant virus spread even though there are many reasons that I would think it would be conducive. Between WDW, Universal and Sea World there must be over 100,000 CMs (or whatever Universal and Sea World call their employees). The last week before they all closed, there had to be a few hundred thousand visitors to all the parks (non Disney included). Many of those visitors in February especially were from New York due to their mid winter break. We know that the virus was spreading in New York in February.

Yet, given all that potential, neither Orange nor Osceola county had a significant outbreak. In both counties other than a few "spike" days of test result dumps, they don't really have a curve, they have an ant hill. Both counties have (and have had) low positive test rates. Contrasted with Broward and especially Miami-Dade, it is clear that something is very different and that the environment in those two counties is more conducive to spread than the Orlando area counties.

Whatever the reason, the data shows that there doesn't seem to have been significant spread due to tens of thousands of visitors and employees interacting in theme parks in central FL. I'm not saying there is no risk of spread at WDW or another theme park. I'm just saying that the risk seems pretty low given the available data.

I'm not sure why this is the case because everything about a theme park (and especially WDW) seems like it would be the perfect environment for the virus to spread like wildfire. There is packed transit, disgusting surfaces everywhere, standing in queues for hours in some cases in close proximity to other people.

It's not just the confirmed case curve and the testing that indicates the outbreak was far less severe than I would have expected around WDW. The syndromic metrics don't show nearly the spike that the southeast Florida counties show.

We are talking a very different set of circumstances from 6 weeks ago though, in terms of # of infections etc. For now Disney must proceed with the fact that, as you said "everything about a theme park (and especially WDW) seems like it would be the perfect environment for the virus to spread like wildfire" and not speculate as to whether there were a few early virus carriers at the parks prior to closing.

 

[mhaftman7]

I think each resort could be assigned a park they go to for the day. Contemporary and Polynesian, you get to go to the MK. POFQ and Riverside, you get to go to Epcot, but if you're staying in a resort you will be guaranteed to go to a park. That way, they can better control how many people are in each park.

I agree that capacity limitations would need to be enforced, but my concern with this iteration is guests with pre-existing reservations. People that booked prior to the pandemic generally have had dining reservations and maybe even fast passes already scheduled. Telling people the plans they made cannot be accommodated at the last minute will definitely cause problems. You also will have short trippers that may not plan on going to the assigned park at all and be stuck/forced to do something they don’t.

I think Disney REALLY needs to push MDE for the time being. If you see Family A has reservations for breakfast at a MK resort and FP+s lined up at MK, you tally them as an anticipated guest. They’ll be tracked via Magic Band and can give you a very good predictive number of who will be where and when. For example, using small numbers for simplicity sake, if you wanted to have 100 people at MK on a given day and 75 people made plans using MDE, you put them in the expected tally and then limit to 25 people who have no predetermined plans. Obviously the actual numbers would 100x higher, but it’s just an example. Yes, it would be disappointing for guests to be not allowed admittance while other guests would in that scenario, but MDE is available to ALL guests and capacity will NEED to be monitored. I think it would be even worse for a family who took the time to plan their day to not be allowed admittance due to capacity limits met.

Just a thought.