WDW Reopening Estimates

[Herdman]

well of course, he's governor of Florida. I believe WDW from the moment they closed (probably even before), have been putting plans into place in how to re-open.

I agree. My point is that I don't think he would make that kind of comment if they had no intention of opening until 2021 as others opinions have been.

 

[Getachew]

I agree. My point is that I don't think he would make that kind of comment if they had no intention of opening until 2021 as others opinions have been.

I don't believe it will be until 2021 either. I also don't believe it will be June as some think. I'm leaning towards July with DS and maybe one park and a few resorts as a test run, but who knows at this point.

 

[Herdman]

I don't believe it will be until 2021 either. I also don't believe it will be June as some think. I'm leaning towards July with DS and maybe one park and a few resorts as a test run, but who knows at this point.

I think you are spot on. It will definitely be a gradual thing. I just don't know how they reconcile that with these new packages they are selling and with people that already had trips booked for the summer months long ago.

 

[Getachew]

I think you are spot on. It will definitely be a gradual thing. I just don't know how they reconcile that with these new packages they are selling and with people that already had trips booked for the summer months long ago.

Yeah I've thought about that. These people were obviously expecting a fully operational WDW resort, not one park open with limited dining, no parades, characters, and fireworks, and only half the rides open. It will be interesting to see how WDW deals with this.

 

[DeletedAccount55555]

There are just so many factors I’m trying to juggle in my head when I try to guess here, from what DeSantis wants to Disney’s June 1 booking date and summer deal to just the raw economics of it all

Yes, I definitely think that Disney is planning to reopen on some form well before the end of the year. I also don’t think it will be among the first things to reopen on Florida, which both means they can see what kind of wave happens after other businesses reopen. That could very well mean another stay-at-home order if there’s an immediate surge.

What I hope Disney is doing is pressuring the state and federal governments to solve the problems that need solving before any reopening should be considered. Tell them that if they want things to get better, they have to figure out rapid, widespread testing, including serological tests — and FAST. Use your clout to encourage a strategy that isn’t just wishful thinking.

At this point, I think July 1 is a best case scenario. On the opposite end, I think 2021 dates are extreme pessimism. Yes, I’m well aware that we won’t have a vaccine, but I think people mistake epidemiologists’ reminders that some measures to mitigate the virus will be needed until then with saying that this current reality — sheltering in place — has to continue until then. Largely, that’s not what they’re saying, because that really is an unrealistic proposition.

 

[Giss Neric]

I'm monitoring first if the shelter-in-place orders extends when it ends on May 15th.

 

[Sandurz]

What I hope Disney is doing is pressuring the state and federal governments to solve the problems that need solving before any reopening should be considered. Tell them that if they want things to get better, they have to figure out rapid, widespread testing, including serological tests — and FAST. Use your clout to encourage a strategy that isn’t just wishful thinking.

Yep that's what so frustrating about all this. It's 100% possible to have things like the parks up and running in safe, albeit different manner, relatively soon, even without a vaccine. This is a solvable problem. There just seems to be little to no movement toward these solutions, it's insane. If officials want to open up so badly, why don't they do what actually allows for it instead of just turning into some grandstand about rights and liberties and freedoms and fear and risk? With Iger being on that task force now, maybe we'll get some of that, but who knows??

 

[DeletedAccount55555]

Yep that's what so frustrating about all this. It's 100% possible to have things like the parks up and running in safe, albeit different manner, relatively soon, even without a vaccine. This is a solvable problem. There just seems to be little to no movement toward these solutions, it's insane. If officials want to open up so badly, why don't they do what actually allows for it instead of just turning into some grandstand about rights and liberties and freedoms and fear and risk? With Iger being on that task force now, maybe we'll get some of that, but who knows??

Wishful thinking is easier. As is blaming the economic situation on the stay-at-home orders, instead of the pandemic.

Iger’s presence on the task force could mean a lot or nothing at all. I can easily envision that group being token appointments with no real input.

 

[fngoofy]

I don't believe it will be until 2021 either. I also don't believe it will be June as some think. I'm leaning towards July with DS and maybe one park and a few resorts as a test run, but who knows at this point.

I hear ya. My guess is:
Time = Sometime after 4th of July (who wants that mess when you are starting out.)
Who = ONLY resort guests
What = Magic Kingdom & Disney Studios
Resorts = Monorail Resorts (with reduced occupancy) and a moderate like Caribbean Beach and a value like Art of Animation (with a reduced occupancy.) That way all resort guests could take monorail, Skyliner, or a combination of the two and get to the two open parks. No need for buses, or even car parking (or at least greatly reduced.

So at a 50% occupancy:
Polynesian Village Resort = 847 x .50 = 423
Grand Floridian Resort = 867 x .50 = 433
Contemporary Resort = 655 x .50 = 327
Caribbean Beach Resort = 1536 x .50= 768
Art of Animation Resort = 1984 x .50 = 992
So at that's 2,943 rooms at 4 per room = 11,772 people

So round numbers, you'd be looking at 12k people split between 2 parks.
They would be ghost towns, but it would be to start. Once they get the process down, they can open other resorts at 50% and then add Animal Kingdom, etc., etc.

I do think restricting to only guests staying at Disney resorts allows them to have so much more control over the situation.
Plus, you add in MagicBand tracking and what not, they would totally be able to manage guest flow and even warn you after the fact if you had been in contact with a guest or CM who subsequently tested positive.

The real trick will be getting down there without being cooped up in a plane.

 

[Disney Maddux]

With the way it's looking in Florida right now, I'd say probably late May/early June.

 

[surfsupdon]

I hear ya. My guess is:
Time = Sometime after 4th of July (who wants that mess when you are starting out.)
Who = ONLY resort guests
What = Magic Kingdom & Disney Studios
Resorts = Monorail Resorts (with reduced occupancy) and a moderate like Caribbean Beach and a value like Art of Animation (with a reduced occupancy.) That way all resort guests could take monorail, Skyliner, or a combination of the two and get to the two open parks. No need for buses, or even car parking (or at least greatly reduced.

So at a 40% occupancy:
Polynesian Village Resort = 847 x .50 = 423
Grand Floridian Resort = 867 x .50 = 433
Contemporary Resort = 655 x .50 = 327
Caribbean Beach Resort = 1536 x .50= 768
Art of Animation Resort = 1984 x .50 = 992
So at that's 2,943 rooms at 4 per room = 11,772 people

So round numbers, you'd be looking at 12k people split between 2 parks.
They would be ghost towns, but it would be to start. Once they get the process down, they can open other resorts at 50% and then add Animal Kingdom, etc., etc.

I do think restricting to only guests staying at Disney resorts allows them to have so much more control over the situation.
Plus, you add in MagicBand tracking and what not, they would totally be able to manage guest flow and even warn you after the fact if you had been in contact with a guest or CM who subsequently tested positive.

The real trick will be getting down there without being cooped up in a plane.

I get this logic, but I also believe that getting DVC Resorts open is necessary for the points problem brewing, and also there should be a need. Many DVC have Resort only stays, for up to a month. I agree to get monorail and skyliner resorts open.

 

[KrazyKat]

So now when we say “soft opening”, we mean the whole darn resort...

 

[Jrb1979]

I get why so many think June cause Disney stated rebooking people then. I just don't see it. First of all they haven't called anyone back to work yet. Its going to take awhile to reopen rides, test them plus put the social distancing measures in place.

 

[jaxonp]

I get why so many think June cause Disney stated rebooking people then. I just don't see it. First of all they haven't called anyone back to work yet. Its going to take awhile to reopen rides, test them plus put the social distancing measures in place.

Not that I disagree with you but you don't know that Disney isn't doing these things as we speak or at least some of them.

 

[peter11435]

I get why so many think June cause Disney stated rebooking people then. I just don't see it. First of all they haven't called anyone back to work yet. Its going to take awhile to reopen rides, test them plus put the social distancing measures in place.

They won’t call cast members back to work until about a week before reopening. It won’t take that long to get most things ready. Small
Crews are still there doing the minimum required. They’ve been planning social distancing measures since before they closed.

 

[DeletedAccount55555]

They won’t call cast members back to work until about a week before reopening. It won’t take that long to get most things ready. Small
Crews are still there doing the minimum required. They’ve been planning social distancing measures since before they closed.

I don't think we should assume they were planning much of anything before the closure based on how rapidly this situation changed. Just days before the park closures were announced, Disney was holding its annual shareholders meeting and announcing that Avengers Campus in DCA would open July 18.

Why would you do that if you have any inkling that you need to close for any length of time or radically alter your park operations?

 

[Jrb1979]

I don't think we should assume they were planning much of anything before the closure based on how rapidly this situation changed. Just days before the park closures were announced, Disney was holding its annual shareholders meeting and announcing that Avengers Campus in DCA would open July 18.

Why would you do that if you have any inkling that you need to close for any length of time or radically alter your park operations?

I will add the fact they took June reservations and rebookings is another sign they thought they were reopening soon. Now that they probably not opening June 1st and definitely not with everything open they should start telling those people. There is going to be a lot of people upset.

 

[danyoung56]

I don't think we should assume they were planning much of anything before the closure based on how rapidly this situation changed.

I was there when it closed, and no, there was very little foreknowledge (at least what was put out to the guests). We didn't know till Saturday that all the parks were closing as of midnight Sunday. I wasn't going home till late afternoon Monday, so I was screwed out of a 1/2 day in the parks.

 

[koc1723]

I will add the fact they took June reservations and rebookings is another sign they thought they were reopening soon. Now that they probably not opening June 1st and definitely not with everything open they should start telling those people. There is going to be a lot of people upset.

My perspective is that if you booked a June 1 reservation you were doing one of 2 things.
First, you were playing the game and trying to get Disney to give you something for free (ie a benefit for booking something that you would never use but get something in return, ie free dining or resort credit of some sort).
OR
you truly thought you would/could travel then and then you will be disappointed.

 

[jpeden]

there will be a spike in cases regardless what state reopens or when it reopens. That is known and was expected by all health experts. Social distancing and shelter in place was designed to prevent overwhelming hospitals so they have time to prepare for any possible surges. We have done that. Social distancing was never meant to eliminate the virus and in fact if you go back and listen to epidemiologists - flattening the curve doesn’t reduce the #of infected - it spreads them out over a longer period of time. That has happened.