That pool is 50% of the attraction of that resort (the other being walking distance to TBD festivals in Epcot). If they don’t open it they likely will have enough cancellations to justify not opening the resort imo.
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News Walt Disney World's COVID-19 reopening plans announced - July 11
- Thread starter wdwmagic
- Start date
That pool is 50% of the attraction of that resort (the other being walking distance to TBD festivals in Epcot). If they don’t open it they likely will have enough cancellations to justify not opening the resort imo.
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
They shouldn't have been accepting (encouraging) new reservations for the past 2.5 months. I kind of get it at the beginning when there was so much uncertainty, but they could've cut that off a long time ago.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
That’s part of the reason I wonder if they don’t just keep the whole resort closed except for DVC. The pool is a fantastic, but the costs get socialized across 1,200 rooms at both resorts not including the DVC rooms. If they kept YC closed (currently rumored but not confirmed) and BC isn’t near full capacity then it’s harder to justify the cost of a mini-water park for a few hundred rooms. I’m sure Disney is crunching the numbers and they are looking for ways to cut costs across the board.
Ok. As a math teacher here are my calculations: According to a different website that helps with planning vacations, it shows capacity at the 4 parks total approximately 320,000. (estimate) If Disney chose to do 30% capacity, that would mean 96,000 people daily at the parks. Now I have also found that Disney has approximately 36000 hotel rooms spread throughout the resort. Now lets say a room holds 4 people on average...... then 96k/4 =24000 rooms would reach capacity at a 30% rate. 24000/36000 means the entire resort rooms would need to be at 67% capacity at 4 per room to reach the 30% threshold I have seen. That would include ALL resorts. I find it doubtful that the present reservations come anywhere close to that. Again, my thoughts and calculations. Feel free to discuss or if I did something wrong please lets talk.
As for the info stating a hotel reservation does not guarantee you entrance into the park, I am seeing Disney make statements just in case something were to happen. It is my firm opinion they plan to attempt to make all accommodations for those who have scheduled trips.
As for the info stating a hotel reservation does not guarantee you entrance into the park, I am seeing Disney make statements just in case something were to happen. It is my firm opinion they plan to attempt to make all accommodations for those who have scheduled trips.
mickeymiss
Well-Known Member
Wait....so people with tickets and hotel reservations are not certain to have park or hotel reservations? I thought people with tickets are VIP.
The plot thickens. I don't think there's enough disney magic in my heart to see the point of going now. Without park hoppers, we would need to get a few more tickets to make the trip worth while for the long drive. If we still don't know if the tickets we have are valid and can't get more before the general public, it's not looking good.
The plot thickens. I don't think there's enough disney magic in my heart to see the point of going now. Without park hoppers, we would need to get a few more tickets to make the trip worth while for the long drive. If we still don't know if the tickets we have are valid and can't get more before the general public, it's not looking good.
They said you still have to go through their reservation system to get particular parks on particular days. Then they released a statement that having a hotel reservation does not guarantee park admittance. This statement is causing some to panic that they wont be able to go to parks. I was responding that I don't think capacity of on site people will be an issue. The park doesn't open still for another month so people need to pump the brakes on ambiguous statements and taking them completely at face value.
When are you planning to go?
peter11435
Well-Known Member
The 320,000 number is too high, similarly the 96k number is much too high for the initial phase.
sjhym333
Well-Known Member
That may all be true but here is the rub. You can't assume a simple 30 percent. Those numbers are based on every attraction open and working at full capacity. It also takes into account all stores and restaurants running at full capacity. We know that isn't the case. Capacity for the initial opening isn't going to be anywhere near the normal numbers. Reduced attraction availability, social distancing queues and less seating will mean much lower in park capacity.
I spit balled a number. How does the 30% account for stores being open if I may ask. Is 25% better. again giving rough estimates, not attempting to do an actuarial assessment. I am not trying to be Nostradamus. The whole point of my initial post was to calm some stressed out people who had read about hotel reservations not guaranteeing park access. Although it may be true, think its too early to panic
peter11435
Well-Known Member
Remember that the parks largely don’t operate at or near capacity. If Epcot for example allowed 30% of its capacity in the park when it reopens that would be one of the busiest days you’ve ever seen at the park.
During the initial phase of reopening a more realistic number for the four parks would be roughly 50-60k
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I think the park number seems a little high. It’s not about a percent of maximum capacity. I think they will have a number cap which will be different per park. My guesstimate is early attendance for all 4 parks will be capped around 60K people with EPCOT and AK having slightly higher capacity than MK and DHS being the lowest. On the hotel side the 36K rooms includes DVC and partner hotels near DS and Swan/Dolphin. Are we sure they would get priority with actual Disney resorts? DVC is around 4,500 rooms and would average at least 4 per room since some villas sleep more and even some studios can now sleep 5. Regular Hotel rooms I would assume an average closer to 3 people per room. Theres around 24,000 Disney branded hotel rooms. So 18,000 people at DVC assuming near full capacity. If the 24,000 rooms are all used but are at 60% occupancy and 3 people per room that’s around 43,000 additional guests. That puts the total right at or slightly above the 60,000 park capacity. There are a lot of assumptions there obviously which can be tweaked many different ways.
Where the math gets trickier is how many rooms will actually be in service at open? Let’s assume based on a handful of rumors that they don’t open the All Stars, CSR, half of POR, YC or AKL. That‘s close to 11,000 room offline leaving only 13,000 available plus DVC. In other words actual resort capacity could be even lower. You also have to factor in some resort guests will spend a day at the pool or golfing or shopping or at Uni/Sea World. In other words they won’t all pick a park every day.
It seems like there should be enough park capacity for every resort guest to get a park each day. Which park may become a problem as DHS has the smallest size plus a lot of attraction capacity off line which means it will be the most limited capacity. It also has the newest and very popular rides. EPCOT will likely never “sell out”. Will resort guests wanting to see SW land be upset they can only get EPCOt or AK? Most likely yes.
For hotel rooms I used this site :
Walt Disney World Hotels - Number of Rooms
touringplans.com
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I think the park number seems a little high. It’s not about a percent of maximum capacity. I think they will have a number cap which will be different per park. My guesstimate is early attendance for all 4 parks will be capped around 60K people with EPCOT and AK having slightly higher capacity than MK and DHS being the lowest. On the hotel side the 36K rooms includes DVC and partner hotels near DS and Swan/Dolphin. Are we sure they would get priority with actual Disney resorts? DVC is around 4,500 rooms and would average at least 4 per room since some villas sleep more and even some studios can now sleep 5. Regular Hotel rooms I would assume an average closer to 3 people per room. Theres around 24,000 Disney branded hotel rooms. So 18,000 people at DVC assuming near full capacity. If the 24,000 rooms are all used but are at 60% occupancy and 3 people per room that’s around 43,000 additional guests. That puts the total right at or slightly above the 60,000 park capacity. There are a lot of assumptions there obviously which can be tweaked many different ways.
Where the math gets trickier is how many rooms will actually be in service at open? Let’s assume based on a handful of rumors that they don’t open the All Stars, CSR, half of POR, YC or AKL. That‘s close to 11,000 room offline leaving only 13,000 available plus DVC. In other words actual resort capacity could be even lower. You also have to factor in some resort guests will spend a day at the pool or golfing or shopping or at Uni/Sea World. In other words they won’t all pick a park every day.
It seems like there should be enough park capacity for every resort guest to get a park each day. Which park may become a problem as DHS has the smallest size plus a lot of attraction capacity off line which means it will be the most limited capacity. It also has the newest and very popular rides. EPCOT will likely never “sell out”. Will resort guests wanting to see SW land be upset they can only get EPCOt or AK? Most likely yes.
For hotel rooms I used this site :
Walt Disney World Hotels - Number of Rooms
Goof you and I are on same page. I figured some 5 to 6 would balance out with some 2 and 3's. so I went with 4. I also know that although DVC I am hearing has little availability during July, I would think non DVC probably will be significantly below 60% as some may choose not to go with no parades, fireworks, meet and greets etc. I appreciate everyone's input. I love it to be honest
mickeymiss
Well-Known Member
We are booked for 8/7. We booked more hotel days than ticket days with intentions to modify later. Now that nobody can modify, 7 days won't be enough if we can't park hop. We would need a few more tickets or it's a deal breaker. I hope they will work something out for all resort guests that booked before the re-open announcement. I'm very understanding of the need for restrictions but they are stacking up without much for incentives. They have $5000 from us and I want to feel like they can make something seem special about going.
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
Right. I think there should be a capacity limit based on the normal park attendance. A capacity of 30% based on NYE at MK doesn't mean much.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Math is fun
A lot of DVC people booked in June and earlier pushed to July. Before the announced opening date there was a ton of availability now the second half of Juiy is booked more heavily. The hotels are hard to call. Depending on how they decide to structure it they could have a lot less rooms available and keep them at a higher occupancy. That’s the cheapest way to do it. The other way is open all the resorts but close certain floors or buildings. My guess is they go option A to save money.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Based on the communication already sent out informing AP holders it may be difficult to get a park reservation it seems they are going to be below resort guests on park reservation priority. The AP holder reservations will definitely impact availability for anyone not staying at a Disney resort.