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News Walt Disney World's COVID-19 reopening plans announced - July 11

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
DeSantis also said the amount of people on ventilators who have tested positive for the virus is down 56 percent from April 15.

Sounds great, right? Until one realizes that in order to make the number of those on ventilators sound like good news, you compare it to the number from two whole months ago at its peak.

It would be more helpful to characterize the number of people on ventilators as rising or declining in the in the past two weeks so as to know if things are currently getting better or worse. For all we know, this number could be on a sharp rise, but, as long it's not the all time record, it's good news!

The point is that the ICU patients (current census not aggregate) is significantly lower now then it was at the peak. Also, the hospitals are not anywhere near capacity.

It doesn't matter if it is on a sharp rise or not. The entire "sales pitch" for the drastic mitigation was to make sure the hospital system wasn't overwhelmed and there was capacity to treat COVID and non-COVID patients as necessary. As long as this remains the case, it is "good news." Based on the tallahasseereports.com daily new hospitalization tracking, the number of hospitalizations is not increasing in any significant manner and is below the level that it was after the peak.

The goal was never to try and eliminate the virus with "mitigation." It was to flatten the curve so the health care system was not overwhelmed. I can't count the number of times that somebody said it doesn't matter how low the COVID fatality rate is, there will be deaths from other causes because the COVID patients will overwhelm the health care system and that is why we had to take drastic action to flatten the curve.

Amazing news

/s

WOW! Awesome!

Open everything up!! Its time. NO MASKS!

/s

What the article doesn't bother to mention is that in the examples he gave about places (there were more than just the airport) where a high percentage of people that live and/or work in close quarters tested positive, almost all of them were asymptomatic.

That's why the number of cases (documented or otherwise) doesn't really matter if the most vulnerable part of the population is taking precautions not to come into close contact with the less vulnerable population. Both the hospitalization numbers and the median age of the positive tests indicate that this is happening.

The single biggest issue in Florida related to COVID has been and continues to be nursing homes. Over half of the fatalities were nursing home residents. Nursing home residents make up less than 2% of the population of Florida but over half the COVID fatalities.

This chart illustrates how much lower the risk of death from COVID is in the general population vs. the nursing home population. Green is deaths in the general population which includes all of the high risk population.

itswe.jpg


If you are not a resident of a nursing home, to date, the chance of a random Florida resident contracting and dying from COVID-19 is 0.0067%. Obviously the risk varies greatly by age and underlying health conditions but I'm just trying to put it into some kind of perspective.
 

disneygeek90

Premium Member
I'm assuming they will have extend the APs at least through the initial parks re-opening phase, like they did with Shanghai. Just because they currently say through the "closure" doesn't mean they can't change that. Look at resort package cancellation policy. First it was through June 30, then through the closure period, but now through October 3.

Maybe they won't, but I'm sure they realize that if a majority of AP can't make a reservation in the first few months they would do this as a gesture of good faith.
That's reasonable, but we don't know how long this reservation phase will last and while I know it's not likely, the calendar has it through next year. Surely they won't be extending AP's that long.
 

bartholomr4

Well-Known Member
DeSantis also said the amount of people on ventilators who have tested positive for the virus is down 56 percent from April 15.

Sounds great, right? Until one realizes that in order to make the number of those on ventilators sound like good news, you compare it to the number from two whole months ago at its peak.

It would be more helpful to characterize the number of people on ventilators as rising or declining in the in the past two weeks so as to know if things are currently getting better or worse. For all we know, this number could be on a sharp rise, but, as long it's not the all time record, it's good news!

The Seven Day Average of deaths from COVID-19 is relatively stable since April 19th. It has reduced, but that change is not statistically significant.

1592401106979.png
 

Purduevian

Well-Known Member
That's reasonable, but we don't know how long this reservation phase will last and while I know it's not likely, the calendar has it through next year. Surely they won't be extending AP's that long.

I realize it's a bit apples to oranges, but Cedar Point Seasonal Passes (not open year round) have been extended through the 2021 season. They were originally supposed to open late may, but instead are opening up with reservations July 9th. The park was closed for about a month an a half out of the 5.5ish month operating schedule or about 25% of the season. I'm assuming the rest of 2020 will need reservations at CP, although that is not confirmed yet.

Basically CP is extending 2020 pass through the time of closure AND reservation period, which in this case is a full extra season. I'm sure Disney is scrambling trying to figure out what to do.
 

deeevo

Well-Known Member
The point is that the ICU patients (current census not aggregate) is significantly lower now then it was at the peak. Also, the hospitals are not anywhere near capacity.

It doesn't matter if it is on a sharp rise or not. The entire "sales pitch" for the drastic mitigation was to make sure the hospital system wasn't overwhelmed and there was capacity to treat COVID and non-COVID patients as necessary. As long as this remains the case, it is "good news." Based on the tallahasseereports.com daily new hospitalization tracking, the number of hospitalizations is not increasing in any significant manner and is below the level that it was after the peak.

The goal was never to try and eliminate the virus with "mitigation." It was to flatten the curve so the health care system was not overwhelmed. I can't count the number of times that somebody said it doesn't matter how low the COVID fatality rate is, there will be deaths from other causes because the COVID patients will overwhelm the health care system and that is why we had to take drastic action to flatten the curve.




What the article doesn't bother to mention is that in the examples he gave about places (there were more than just the airport) where a high percentage of people that live and/or work in close quarters tested positive, almost all of them were asymptomatic.

That's why the number of cases (documented or otherwise) doesn't really matter if the most vulnerable part of the population is taking precautions not to come into close contact with the less vulnerable population. Both the hospitalization numbers and the median age of the positive tests indicate that this is happening.

The single biggest issue in Florida related to COVID has been and continues to be nursing homes. Over half of the fatalities were nursing home residents. Nursing home residents make up less than 2% of the population of Florida but over half the COVID fatalities.

This chart illustrates how much lower the risk of death from COVID is in the general population vs. the nursing home population. Green is deaths in the general population which includes all of the high risk population.

View attachment 477035

If you are not a resident of a nursing home, to date, the chance of a random Florida resident contracting and dying from COVID-19 is 0.0067%. Obviously the risk varies greatly by age and underlying health conditions but I'm just trying to put it into some kind of perspective.
If there is one thing I have learned from all of this is people don't care about raw data they would rather get their information from Twitter, Facebook, Youtube ect..... Thank you for putting this together even though you will probably catch hell for it.
 

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
The point is that the ICU patients (current census not aggregate) is significantly lower now then it was at the peak. Also, the hospitals are not anywhere near capacity.

It doesn't matter if it is on a sharp rise or not. The entire "sales pitch" for the drastic mitigation was to make sure the hospital system wasn't overwhelmed and there was capacity to treat COVID and non-COVID patients as necessary. As long as this remains the case, it is "good news." Based on the tallahasseereports.com daily new hospitalization tracking, the number of hospitalizations is not increasing in any significant manner and is below the level that it was after the peak.

The goal was never to try and eliminate the virus with "mitigation." It was to flatten the curve so the health care system was not overwhelmed. I can't count the number of times that somebody said it doesn't matter how low the COVID fatality rate is, there will be deaths from other causes because the COVID patients will overwhelm the health care system and that is why we had to take drastic action to flatten the curve.




What the article doesn't bother to mention is that in the examples he gave about places (there were more than just the airport) where a high percentage of people that live and/or work in close quarters tested positive, almost all of them were asymptomatic.

That's why the number of cases (documented or otherwise) doesn't really matter if the most vulnerable part of the population is taking precautions not to come into close contact with the less vulnerable population. Both the hospitalization numbers and the median age of the positive tests indicate that this is happening.

The single biggest issue in Florida related to COVID has been and continues to be nursing homes. Over half of the fatalities were nursing home residents. Nursing home residents make up less than 2% of the population of Florida but over half the COVID fatalities.

This chart illustrates how much lower the risk of death from COVID is in the general population vs. the nursing home population. Green is deaths in the general population which includes all of the high risk population.

View attachment 477035

If you are not a resident of a nursing home, to date, the chance of a random Florida resident contracting and dying from COVID-19 is 0.0067%. Obviously the risk varies greatly by age and underlying health conditions but I'm just trying to put it into some kind of perspective.
No one is saying to go back to a lockdown but why not put stricter social distancing measures in place. Mandatory masks when going indoors, limited capacity for all businesses, enforce social distancing. Where I live they have been fining people $880 for not complying. They have handed out of over 900 tickets. You can open businesses but social distancing should still be in place.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
If there is one thing I have learned from all of this is people don't care about raw data they would rather get their information from Twitter, Facebook, Youtube ect..... Thank you for putting this together even though you will probably catch hell for it.
Exactly. All this data is publicly available. The woman that was fired from the dashboard made her own dashboard using the same raw data. Apparently her biggest issues are that the dashboard doesn't include non-resident cases (even though the detailed PDF report does) which would add a whopping 2.5% to the total. Somehow not putting those on the dashboard makes the situation look a lot better. She also says they are publishing overall test positive rate instead of new case positive in the trends. However, I don't even think she is correct on that. I would expect that including re-tests of prior positives would make the rate worse, not better.

Anyway, the point is that even though she was removed from being in charge of the dashboard, she is still able to access all the raw data like any other citizen can. You can analyze the presentation slides on your own and listen to the press conferences. Of course there is some spin in there but if you listen yourself you can interpret yourself and not rely on a headline or tweet or even a news report/article to interpret for you.

No one is saying to go back to a lockdown but why not put stricter social distancing measures in place. Mandatory masks when going indoors, limited capacity for all businesses, enforce social distancing. Where I live they have been fining people $880 for not complying. They have handed out of over 900 tickets. You can open businesses but social distancing should still be in place.

I 100% agree with social distancing being in place. I agree with masks indoors when social distancing isn't possible. I include the grocery store, walmart, etc. in that group because no matter what they try to do, people cross each other and stand next to each other in the aisles.

Without knowing your state laws I have no idea how a fine is enforceable. To punish an individual, they have to be violating a law. Executive orders aren't laws.

While no one is "saying" to go back to a lockdown, the focus on case "spikes" and drawing the most negative possible conclusion infers that they want to go back to a lockdown.
 

Parker in NYC

Well-Known Member
While no one is "saying" to go back to a lockdown, the focus on case "spikes" and drawing the most negative possible conclusion infers that they want to go back to a lockdown.

That is a grand assumption. For me, at least, it's more of a wake up call for all of us to adhere to the restrictions. That's really all I'm concerned about. If it gets to the point that localized closings have to happen, that's another story. But for now, if people still think this doesn't apply to them, God save them from their stupidity.
 

RaveOnEd

Well-Known Member
the positivity rate nearly doubled in one weeks time. Thats not sensationalized.
It is if all you say is that cases have increased. You are leaving out increases of tests, who is asymptomatic, who tested positive for antibodies, how many are hospitalized.

Just saying there is an increase is irresponsible, as it stokes fear and in some cases hysteria, depression, etc. Something like this needs as much information as possible, especially in a society that looks at the headline only.
 

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
Exactly. All this data is publicly available. The woman that was fired from the dashboard made her own dashboard using the same raw data. Apparently her biggest issues are that the dashboard doesn't include non-resident cases (even though the detailed PDF report does) which would add a whopping 2.5% to the total. Somehow not putting those on the dashboard makes the situation look a lot better. She also says they are publishing overall test positive rate instead of new case positive in the trends. However, I don't even think she is correct on that. I would expect that including re-tests of prior positives would make the rate worse, not better.

Anyway, the point is that even though she was removed from being in charge of the dashboard, she is still able to access all the raw data like any other citizen can. You can analyze the presentation slides on your own and listen to the press conferences. Of course there is some spin in there but if you listen yourself you can interpret yourself and not rely on a headline or tweet or even a news report/article to interpret for you.



I 100% agree with social distancing being in place. I agree with masks indoors when social distancing isn't possible. I include the grocery store, walmart, etc. in that group because no matter what they try to do, people cross each other and stand next to each other in the aisles.

Without knowing your state laws I have no idea how a fine is enforceable. To punish an individual, they have to be violating a law. Executive orders aren't laws.

While no one is "saying" to go back to a lockdown, the focus on case "spikes" and drawing the most negative possible conclusion infers that they want to go back to a lockdown.
With regards to spikes in cases, IMO instead of going back to a lockdown, they need to put more strict social distancing measures in.

As far as the fines go, here in Ontario Canada, it falls under the emergency acts by-law. Each city has the right to fine people and businesses for not complying with social distancing.
 

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