As the vaccine rolls out and cases drop to a low enough level I think it’s likely that happens at WDW too. It’s going to be a gradual easing of restrictions not a light switch where everything is turned off at once.
Just to keep things real though, we aren’t exactly getting close yet. In Japan their cases spiked to around 3,000 per day for a nation with a population of 126 million people. That’s the equivalent of the US having under 8,000 cases a day, we had 223,000 cases yesterday. Compared to just the state of FL that would be the equivalent of around 500 daily cases in FL. If you compare to just Tokyo itself where the Disney parks are the population is 14M and had 621 cases yesterday so 44 cases per million. That’s the equivalent of around 900 cases a day in FL or compared to Orange County FL 62 daily cases (yesterday was 759). Again, just trying to level set what comparable cases would look like. I’m not saying we have to get to those particular numbers here to start removing restrictions, but we aren’t even in the same ballpark as Japan or Tokyo right now...not even the same zip code.
Best way to get there is a combination of continuing to follow basic Covid restrictions (masks, distancing, avoid gatherings and avoid indoor interactions) and combine that with vaccines. If the path we choose is just vaccines without an effort on the other stuff we are looking at sometime this summer, best case. With a better effort on other restrictions we could get there quicker, possibly by Memorial Day. I think Spring Break is overly optimistic, but getting a full “summer season” in at WDW is a possibility if people get with the program.