Walt Disney World Park Hours cut starting September 8 2020

[GoofGoof]

RV sales kept the gdp number from bring much worse. RVs are very expensive so the narrative that "Millions are out of work and that's a big reason why the parks are not crowded." doesn't make sense. Their are more examples like this.

Low wage jobs were hit, HARD. I feel for those people, it's a tough situation. But they are not Disney's target audience. Disney has been targeting high income earners for years and most of them are doing just fine (the economic data backs this up in many ways). White collar hasn't been effected by this anywhere near levels that would keep the parks empty.

It is much more related to decreased value for the money and the nuisance of air travel right now. People love fireworks and parades. If someone is only going to go 1-2 times to Disney World, why would they go now???

I feel strongly that once a mostly full experience is delivered, demand will skyrocket. Just think of everyone who pushed 2020 trips to next year...

Just my opinions with some data to back them up. Might be totally wrong.

I agree with your point on demand skyrocketing. I just don’t see any way to return the full experience without a vaccine or some serious improvements in testing/tracing combined with better treatments. That’s why I think we are looking at 6 months to a year before we see a major spike in demand at WDW. Even then it won’t be an immediate return to pre-Covid levels but a return to something closer to normal. The economics of a theme park work best with large crowds and surge pricing. That’s just not possible with distancing and capacity limits. The transport alone is a nightmare let alone park crowds.

On the economy, there are many, many small business owners suffering terribly right now. Not all, but some are in the demographic of WDW regular visitors. So while the waitress making minimum wage may not be in the key demographic for WDW the restaurant owner and his family probably are. There are other people impacted like managers and higher paid workers in the hospitality industry too. Airline pilots, hotel managers, etc. My only point is not all the pain is limited to just hourly workers. They make up the vast majority, but there are many others impacted. Another point to consider is many families are 2 earner families so if mom has a good corporate job that’s been untouched by Covid and dad is a bartender who has been out of work since March it may be that the family can get by financially with a little belt tightening but that extra money they usually would use for a vacation just isn’t there anymore. Another way this applies is people with second jobs. My good friend works a regular 9-5 job which hasn’t been too impacted by Covid but he also bartends 1 or 2 nights a week for extra money. That extra money isn’t there right now. So he is still paying the mortgage but has no money for vacations. His family are regular visitors to WDW but won’t be going any time soon.

 

[legwand77]

RV sales kept the gdp number from bring much worse. RVs are very expensive so the narrative that "Millions are out of work and that's a big reason why the parks are not crowded." doesn't make sense. Their are more examples like this.

Low wage jobs were hit, HARD. I feel for those people, it's a tough situation. But they are not Disney's target audience. Disney has been targeting high income earners for years and most of them are doing just fine (the economic data backs this up in many ways). White collar hasn't been effected by this anywhere near levels that would keep the parks empty.

It is much more related to decreased value for the money and the nuisance of air travel right now. People love fireworks and parades. If someone is only going to go 1-2 times to Disney World, why would they go now???

I feel strongly that once a mostly full experience is delivered, demand will skyrocket. Just think of everyone who pushed 2020 trips to next year...

Just my opinions with some data to back them up. Might be totally wrong.

All this tracks, even with the experience in WDW not being the best, people are still complaining they can't get reservations, especially AP holders. Look at all the trip reports of people flying in from out of state vacations on this board and others, they have been picking up steadily. Once WDW is able to relax the mask rule demand will really pick up. When that will be who knows.

 

[GoofGoof]

All this tracks, even with the experience in WDW not being the best, people are still complaining they can't get reservations, especially AP holders. Look at all the trip reports of people flying in from out of state vacations on this board and others, they have been picking up steadily. Once WDW is able to relax the mask rule demand will really pick up. When that will be who knows.

Look how well a relaxed mask rule worked in the GA schools. Not trying to be a downer, but it’s unlikely Disney relaxes the mask rules any time soon. It’s way too much liability and they would get killed in the media. PR matters a great deal to TWDC.

 

[legwand77]

Look how well a relaxed mask rule worked in the GA schools. Not trying to be a downer, but it’s unlikely Disney relaxes the mask rules any time soon. It’s way too much liability and they would get killed in the media. PR matters a great deal to TWDC.

But was it really that bad, The school from the photo is back in session on a hybrid model this upcoming week. 35 cases out of 2000 students, large majority asymptomatic and no hospitalizations. The majority of parents still strongly support in school learning.

 

[GoofGoof]

But was it really that bad, The school from the photo is back in session on a hybrid model this upcoming week. 35 cases out of 2000 students, large majority asymptomatic and no hospitalizations. The majority of parents still strongly support in school learning.

The district just closed a second high school and thousands of kids are now in a mandatory 14 day quarantine. I’d say it’s a complete train wreck. In 14 days when they go back if more kids test positive they will be right back to quarantine. I don’t see how they don’t pivot to full distance learning at least for a little while.

Georgia school district closes a second high school over COVID-19 outbreak

The Cherokee County School District announced Wednesday it was closing Woodstock High School, effective immediately — the second closing in a week.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Jrb1979]

The district just closed a second high school and thousands of kids are now in a mandatory 14 day quarantine. I’d say it’s a complete train wreck. In 14 days when they go back if more kids test positive they will be right back to quarantine. I don’t see how they don’t pivot to full distance learning at least for a little while.

Georgia school district closes a second high school over COVID-19 outbreak

The Cherokee County School District announced Wednesday it was closing Woodstock High School, effective immediately — the second closing in a week.

www.businessinsider.com

Nothing to see here. People that where Mickey coloured glasses don't see things like that. They also don't see how people aren't interested in going to Disney and theme parks right now.

 

[legwand77]

The district just closed a second high school and thousands of kids are now in a mandatory 14 day quarantine. I’d say it’s a complete train wreck. In 14 days when they go back if more kids test positive they will be right back to quarantine. I don’t see how they don’t pivot to full distance learning at least for a little while.

Georgia school district closes a second high school over COVID-19 outbreak

The Cherokee County School District announced Wednesday it was closing Woodstock High School, effective immediately — the second closing in a week.

www.businessinsider.com

Opinion is the trainwreck is closing the school with so little positive asymptomatic tests. A huge overreaction, but expected with the fear going on,. My bet , they will stop closing the schools for so little of test in the future and realize it makes no difference., but this is probably not the place to discuss that so I see your point etc.

 

[GoofGoof]

Opinion is the trainwreck is closing the school with so little positive asymptomatic tests. A huge overreaction, but expected with the fear going on,. My bet , they will stop closing the schools for so little of test in the future and realize it makes no difference., but this is probably not the place to discuss that so I see your point etc.

I have 2 school aged kids. I wanted them to be able to go back to physical school in Sept. Under no circumstances would I support a plan where you only quarantine the kid who tests positive. You have to also quarantine anyone they had direct contact with and when you hit a tipping point where too many kids are quarantined it makes more sense to close the school. That’s what happened there. The sad part is in September when they re-open the schools the same thing is likely to happen again within a few weeks of re-opening so the kids will just get jerked around, back and forth with no continuity of learning sorta like what we had back in March for the end of last school year.

Wouldn’t the best bet to stop spread in the schools be to attempt to distance the kids and wear masks? Similar to what WDW is doing at the parks? You can’t do nothing and expect the virus to just skip your school or theme park. Unfortunately unless we get to weeks of very low or no cases I don’t see WDW removing the restrictions.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Nothing to see here. People that where Mickey coloured glasses don't see things like that. They also don't see how people aren't interested in going to Disney and theme parks right now.

Not just disney but anywhere. Just ask a travel agent and find out where everyone is going now. Besides my wife, she knows of many agents and the demand is not there for travel except for more local areas to the client. Doesn’t matter what people think here on how things are “ picking up”, they are not unless you want to use 50-10 miles from their house. Then you would be correct.

 

[GoofGoof]

Not just disney but anywhere. Just ask a travel agent and find out where everyone is going now. Besides my wife, she knows of many agents and the demand is not there for travel except for more local areas to the client. Doesn’t matter what people think here on how things are “ picking up”, they are not unless you want to use 50-10 miles from their house. Then you would be correct.

That’s why the Jersey shore is as crowded as ever...even without bars. From what I understand the FL panhandle is a similar situation. Lots of people still going and beaches are crowded but it’s a driving crowd not a fly in one.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I have 2 school aged kids. I wanted them to be able to go back to physical school in Sept. Under no circumstances would I support a plan where you only quarantine the kid who tests positive. You have to also quarantine anyone they had direct contact with and when you hit a tipping point where too many kids are quarantined it makes more sense to close the school. That’s what happened there. The sad part is in September when they re-open the schools the same thing is likely to happen again within a few weeks of re-opening so the kids will just get jerked around, back and forth with no continuity of learning sorta like what we had back in March for the end of last school year.

Wouldn’t the best bet to stop spread in the schools be to attempt to distance the kids and wear masks? Similar to what WDW is doing at the parks? You can’t do nothing and expect the virus to just skip your school or theme park. Unfortunately unless we get to weeks of very low or no cases I don’t see WDW removing the restrictions.

I see the restrictions in place for a long time. Don’t see fireworks, park reservations, park hopping..etc happening until a vaccine of some sort is readily available, even then it will be a slow start back up.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

That’s why the Jersey shore is as crowded as ever...even without bars. From what I understand the FL panhandle is a similar situation. Lots of people still going and beaches are crowded but it’s a driving crowd not a fly in one.

Exactly right. My wife has booked more jersey shore, NY finger lakes and Delaware beach trips in last 2 months then prior 2 years.

 

[legwand77]

I have 2 school aged kids. I wanted them to be able to go back to physical school in Sept. Under no circumstances would I support a plan where you only quarantine the kid who tests positive. You have to also quarantine anyone they had direct contact with and when you hit a tipping point where too many kids are quarantined it makes more sense to close the school. That’s what happened there. The sad part is in September when they re-open the schools the same thing is likely to happen again within a few weeks of re-opening so the kids will just get jerked around, back and forth with no continuity of learning sorta like what we had back in March for the end of last school year.

Wouldn’t the best bet to stop spread in the schools be to attempt to distance the kids and wear masks? Similar to what WDW is doing at the parks? You can’t do nothing and expect the virus to just skip your school or theme park. Unfortunately unless we get to weeks of very low or no cases I don’t see WDW removing the restrictions.

Yes that is what most schools that are open are doing

 

[eliza61nyc]

But was it really that bad, The school from the photo is back in session on a hybrid model this upcoming week. 35 cases out of 2000 students, large majority asymptomatic and no hospitalizations. The majority of parents still strongly support in school learning.

See this is what I don't get, why do we have to wait until something hits mass critical meltdown??
" Oh it's not so bad because NY had more deaths"
" Oh it's not bad because "only" 35 kids get sick"
I just don't understand using the worst case scenarios as a measuring stick

Now once again it's not only about the kid.

Case in point, my kid comes home positive, I have to quarantine for 2 weeks along with my entire lab

N

 

[GoofGoof]

See this is what I don't get, why do we have to wait until something hits mass critical meltdown??
" Oh it's not so bad because NY had more deaths"
" Oh it's not bad because "only" 35 kids get sick"
I just don't understand using the worst case scenarios as a measuring stick

Now once again it's not only about the kid.

Case in point, my kid comes home positive, I have to quarantine for 2 weeks along with my entire lab

N

As a parent with kids I saw it as a big deal. I don‘t know anyone’s personal situation here, but in some cases I think it’s just a political issue. It’s different when it’s your kid and your life that’s being impacted.

 

[Touchdown]

Cases are down because most people are not doing normal things, even in places they can. Most people aren’t eating out, traveling or assembling in large groups. That’s why numbers are down, unfortunately human nature being what it is, as people restart more of those activities again expect a spike again.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Things that are contributing to Disney’s soft attendance numbers (not in any particular order):

1. Covid cases in FL and nationwide are higher than most people would like leading people to be hesitant to go someplace with large crowds.

Partly a piggyback on your #1,but really more of a #7...
With the exception of local passholders, most people plan vacations well in advance- especially WDW vacations. In the before times, Disney itself was aggressively responsible for courting this trend. I dare say, they made it, if not a requirement, then at least they strongly encouraged visitors to book meals 180 days out, FP 60 days out, and onsite hotel reservations up to a full year out, with promotions like the bounce back offer. Last minute trips = being shut out of decent pre-booked FP.

The present reality doesn't matter, because the prior association is now firmly fixed in people's minds: a WDW vacation has to be booked at least 6 months in advance to get the full WDW experience. In the before times, popular table service eateries booked up at 180 days out, especially if people wanted to dine at anything resembling a normal meal time. Most people don't want to eat dinner at 4pm or 9pm. Disney also added those obnoxious no-show fees for last minute cancelations. so this is largely a beast of their own making.

I certainly talked to plenty of people who thought that way about WDW. In 2019, if someone wanted to take a last minute vacation to a theme park, WDW wasn't the place to go.

For that matter, airlines are also guilty of similar having pre-covid no-cancelation policies. Even if they now allow cancelations, the old perceptions still linger. Perception is: airfare is non-refundable, unless one buys business class.


So now, day to day Covid number don't really matter. What matters, is the perception people have that vacations have to be booked well in advance, and if we can't predict- with some certainty- what's going to happen 180 days from now: case loads are down, our income secure, (people are behaving civilly to each other), then committing to a non-refundable deposit becomes a problem.

 

[GoofGoof]

Partly a piggyback on your #1,but really more of a #7...
With the exception of local passholders, most people plan vacations well in advance- especially WDW vacations. In the before times, Disney itself was aggressively responsible for courting this trend. I dare say, they made it, if not a requirement, then at least they strongly encouraged visitors to book meals 180 days out, FP 60 days out, and onsite hotel reservations up to a full year out, with promotions like the bounce back offer. Last minute trips = being shut out of decent pre-booked FP.

The present reality doesn't matter, because the prior association is now firmly fixed in people's minds: a WDW vacation has to be booked at least 6 months in advance to get the full WDW experience. In the before times, popular table service eateries booked up at 180 days out, especially if people wanted to dine at anything resembling a normal meal time. Most people don't want to eat dinner at 4pm or 9pm. Disney also added those obnoxious no-show fees for last minute cancelations. so this is largely a beast of their own making.

I certainly talked to plenty of people who thought that way about WDW. In 2019, if someone wanted to take a last minute vacation to a theme park, WDW wasn't the place to go.

For that matter, airlines are also guilty of similar having pre-covid no-cancelation policies. Even if they now allow cancelations, the old perceptions still linger. Perception is: airfare is non-refundable, unless one buys business class.


So now, day to day Covid number don't really matter. What matters, is the perception people have that vacations have to be booked well in advance, and if we can't predict- with some certainty- what's going to happen 180 days from now: case loads are down, our income secure, (people are behaving civilly to each other), then committing to a non-refundable deposit becomes a problem.

I think that’s a big part of it too. It’s much easier to plan stuff locally and be able to change or cancel at will. With a WDW trip the normal planning is done months in advance as you laid out for a larger portion of visitors so Disney has a good idea what the next 6 months will look like based on bookings. It was probably much less likely pre-Covid that a large number of people cancelled so the forecast was probably pretty accurate too. We don’t know what will happen in the next 4 to 6 months on the ground in FL but Disney already knows what their bookings look like and based on that they cut hours and delayed opening thousands of hotel rooms. If things improve in the next few months I think that could impact bookings into next Spring but this year‘s ship has mostly sailed. WDW is going to be relying on locals to hold down the fort again. The same local base they dumped on for the past few years by cutting discounts and jacking up AP prices. Funny how history really does repeat itself. Same crew was relied on to do the heavy lifting of holding down the fort after 9/11.

 

[Beenhereawhile]

Not just disney but anywhere. Just ask a travel agent and find out where everyone is going now. Besides my wife, she knows of many agents and the demand is not there for travel except for more local areas to the client. Doesn’t matter what people think here on how things are “ picking up”, they are not unless you want to use 50-10 miles from their house. Then you would be correct.

As my name states been here awhile before registering and have wanted to ask Steve? @wdwmagic what he sees in regards to traffic on this site. Granted its just a small piece of a bigger puzzle but i would imagine if there is less traffic on here ( at least the planning section of this site) and other similar sites that interest is down (or has it stayed the same) with disney trips.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

The sad part is in September when they re-open the schools the same thing is likely to happen again within a few weeks of re-opening so the kids will just get jerked around, back and forth with no continuity of learning sorta like what we had back in March for the end of last school year.

Bureaucracies of all stripes tend to fare better under conditions of certainty and predictability. They tend to move slowly, so to speak. They tend to favor careful deliberation over rapid transformation. Our schools and our national government are both bureaucracies. They are very complex systems with many layers.

Planning time is very important.

A potentially positive long term benefit of the present experience is that it has - in some ways- forced our schools to be a little more nimble in adapting. Long term, I think we've seen the end of snow days. Schools will also do a better job of incorporating technology/software literacy. We are seeing a real transformation in our education system that was maybe a bit overdue.