Walt Disney World Park Hours cut starting September 8 2020

[legwand77]

Things that are contributing to Disney’s soft attendance numbers (not in any particular order):

1. Covid cases in FL and nationwide are higher than most people would like leading people to be hesitant to go someplace with large crowds.
2. Flying is particularly unpopular right now, even with safety precautions.
3. FL‘s cases are particularly high leading to multiple states in key WDW demographic areas imposing 14 day quarantine restrictions for anyone going to FL. These are statewide restrictions so pointing to Orange County and saying it’s looking good there is irrelevant. Even if the bulk of cases are in Miami that’s still part of FL and the quarantine orders still stand.
4. Due to Covid WDW has implemented safety procedures including temp checks, physical distancing and masks as well as capacity limits restaurants and even shopping and capacity limits on parks leading to park reservations and the loss of park hopping.
5. Due to Covid and in an attempt to keep costs down WDW has eliminated: nighttime shows, fireworks, parades, character meet and greets, some restaurants (especially buffets), certain indoor shows, certain rides, EMHs, FP+ reservations and the water parks. They have also cut hours - soon to be down to 8 or 9 hour days depending on the park
6. Due to mass layoffs and furloughs a lot of people are out of work. Some of those who still have jobs are reluctant to make a large expenditure for a vacation due to economic uncertainty.

So out of all those things the only one that could potentially change in the next 4+ months (or the rest of 2020) is #3 which is based solely on FL keeping the percent positive under 10% and also keeping the new cases per day under 2,100. So far they are nowhere near the 2,100. Outside of that item there’s little chance that people will change their opinions about going to a theme park or flying and there’s little chance that WDW will relax any of their safety restrictions. It’s possible a few additional entertainment options could be added or some hours could be extended again, but compare that to the long list of what is missing and it still doesn’t hold a good value for a lot of people considering all thats been removed and the lack of any significant discounting on park tickets.

Its great that the stock market is up, but that’s not really directly correlated to WDW. Even if someone with large stock investments is doing much better now that doesn’t remove any of the other items listed. There’s still a great deal of economic uncertainty as well. The stock market has built into its valuations a vaccine coming in Q1 of next year. If you look at stocks like DIS who are losing huge amounts of money the valuation is not based on an expected uptick in 2020 but future potential once a vaccine comes out. If no vaccine comes through the market will bottom out again.
You personally are an outlier in your way of thinking. You see any statistic presented and view it as positive which is your prerogative but that’s not how the masses think and Disney needs the masses not just outliers. There are others here on the other extreme as outliers. It’s the bulk of Americans in the middle that matter to Disney. The business thrives on large crowds and surge pricing neither of which are possible right now.

I see you as the outlier, but makes no difference either way.

You are incorrect, I share factual data that is positive, for perspective, a complete picture. That is all. My opinions are more mainstream than you think, from my experience and what is actually going on in the world, but then again my opinion. Disney is continuing to open more things up, moving forward with the majority of construction and you will see that increase in the next month or so.

1. Your opinion only
2. Flying traffic is steady increasing and will continue to do so
3. Those restrictions are primarily the NE (obviously more important to you, I believe you are from that area) and those will drop in in less than three months if not sooner
4. that is definitely causing to crowds to be less
5. These are the same as your reason 4, hours will increase in October, fireworks will be back by the end of October as well, if not earlier
6. An issue but not a big as people are making it out to be

 

[TTA94]

5. These are the same as your reason 4, hours will increase in October, fireworks will be back by the end of October as well, if not earlier

That would be wonderful if true! But I’m not going to hold my breath.

 

[legwand77]

That would be wonderful if true! But I’m not going to hold my breath.

Others parks have been running their fireworks, Disney can figure it out in two months, at worst just do epcot, plenty of space there

 

[TTA94]

Others parks have been running their fireworks, Disney can figure it out in two months, at worst just do epcot, plenty of space there

I agree they could. But I’m guessing social distancing isn’t the only thing keeping nighttime shows dark.

 

[Lilofan]

Others parks have been running their fireworks, Disney can figure it out in two months, at worst just do epcot, plenty of space there

If that will be true, the fireworks team would be happy to get called back to work and earn a paycheck.

 

[GoofGoof]

I see you as the outlier, but makes no difference either way.

You are incorrect, I share factual data that is positive, for perspective, a complete picture. That is all. My opinions are more mainstream than you think, from my experience and what is actually going on in the world, but then again my opinion. Disney is continuing to open more things up, moving forward with the majority of construction and you will see that increase in the next month or so.

1. Your opinion only
2. Flying traffic is steady increasing and will continue to do so
3. Those restrictions are primarily the NE (obviously more important to you, I believe you are from that area) and those will drop in in less than three months if not sooner
4. that is definitely causing to crowds to be less
5. These are the same as your reason 4, hours will increase in October, fireworks will be back by the end of October as well, if not earlier
6. An issue but not a big as people are making it out to be

This has nothing to do with my opinion or yours. I’m talking about facts. It’s not surprising you think your opinions are mainstream but the economic numbers don’t come close to matching your beliefs. I’m not saying my opinions are any more valid than yours on stuff that’s unknown or uncertain. The facts are the facts:

• Travel is down, way down (especially travel that isn’t local). Doesn’t matter how many people you know who are traveling I’m talking about macro economic trends not anecdotal observations.
• Air traffic is down 70% that’s a huge drop off. It’s increased from the time of stay at home orders but that was rock bottom. There‘s no way to see it as good if you are really being honest.
• There are some form of travel restrictions in about 20 states and you can discount the NE because you don’t live there but again none of this is about me and you, it’s a major demographic area for WDW. It’s a big problem for them. That doesn’t change because you don’t care about the NE.
• Disney could add hours in October, they could add in fireworks, they could open more resorts. They could also close the whole resort and not open it again for the rest of the year. Those are all just possibilities of what could happen, not facts. What we know for a fact is they announced a reduction in park hours starting in September. They announced several resorts that were supposed to open are either delayed to a potential later date or indefinitely delayed with no date given. They haven’t announced anything around fireworks or night shows coming back and with the early close time unless the hours increase it won’t be dark enough at park close to run them until Nov after daylight savings ends.

So while we disagree on how positive the current situation is (opinions can differ) there’s no disputing the facts.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Others parks have been running their fireworks, Disney can figure it out in two months, at worst just do epcot, plenty of space there

Disney's guests wouldn't be able to consistently do what needs to be done in order to make fireworks possible for Disney.

 

[legwand77]

Disney's guests wouldn't be able to consistently do what needs to be done in order to make fireworks possible for Disney.

What can't Disney guest do consistently, that Sea World, Busch gardens can?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

What can't Disney guest do consistently, that Sea World, Busch gardens can?

Be counted on to behave themselves and follow the rules.

 

[robhedin]

This has nothing to do with my opinion or yours. I’m talking about facts. It’s not surprising you think your opinions are mainstream but the economic numbers don’t come close to matching your beliefs. I’m not saying my opinions are any more valid than yours on stuff that’s unknown or uncertain. The facts are the facts:

• Travel is down, way down (especially travel that isn’t local). Doesn’t matter how many people you know who are traveling I’m talking about macro economic trends not anecdotal observations.
• Air traffic is down 70% that’s a huge drop off. It’s increased from the time of stay at home orders but that was rock bottom. There‘s no way to see it as good if you are really being honest.
• There are some form of travel restrictions in about 20 states and you can discount the NE because you don’t live there but again none of this is about me and you, it’s a major demographic area for WDW. It’s a big problem for them. That doesn’t change because you don’t care about the NE.
• Disney could add hours in October, they could add in fireworks, they could open more resorts. They could also close the whole resort and not open it again for the rest of the year. Those are all just possibilities of what could happen, not facts. What we know for a fact is they announced a reduction in park hours starting in September. They announced several resorts that were supposed to open are either delayed to a potential later date or indefinitely delayed with no date given. They haven’t announced anything around fireworks or night shows coming back and with the early close time unless the hours increase it won’t be dark enough at park close to run them until Nov after daylight savings ends.

So while we disagree on how positive the current situation is (opinions can differ) there’s no disputing the facts.

I totally agree with you on the air travel angle. I'm not sure air travel is going to get anywhere back to normal in years. And without air travel, WDW is massively handicapped.

That said, it's interesting that United is betting pretty heavily on Florida come November: https://www.foxbusiness.com/industr...-on-florida-adding-dozens-of-flights-on-nov-6

I'm not sure that's a good thing or not... probably good for Disney, but that's betting on people being willing to fly by then, and I'm not sure about that.

 

[GoofGoof]

I totally agree with you on the air travel angle. I'm not sure air travel is going to get anywhere back to normal in years. And without air travel, WDW is massively handicapped.

That said, it's interesting that United is betting pretty heavily on Florida come November: https://www.foxbusiness.com/industr...-on-florida-adding-dozens-of-flights-on-nov-6

I'm not sure that's a good thing or not... probably good for Disney, but that's betting on people being willing to fly by then, and I'm not sure about that.

It’s worth a shot. If the demand isn’t there they can just cancel the flights like they have been doing all summer.

 

[legwand77]

This has nothing to do with my opinion or yours. I’m talking about facts. It’s not surprising you think your opinions are mainstream but the economic numbers don’t come close to matching your beliefs. I’m not saying my opinions are any more valid than yours on stuff that’s unknown or uncertain. The facts are the facts:

• Travel is down, way down (especially travel that isn’t local). Doesn’t matter how many people you know who are traveling I’m talking about macro economic trends not anecdotal observations.
• Air traffic is down 70% that’s a huge drop off. It’s increased from the time of stay at home orders but that was rock bottom. There‘s no way to see it as good if you are really being honest.
• There are some form of travel restrictions in about 20 states and you can discount the NE because you don’t live there but again none of this is about me and you, it’s a major demographic area for WDW. It’s a big problem for them. That doesn’t change because you don’t care about the NE.
• Disney could add hours in October, they could add in fireworks, they could open more resorts. They could also close the whole resort and not open it again for the rest of the year. Those are all just possibilities of what could happen, not facts. What we know for a fact is they announced a reduction in park hours starting in September. They announced several resorts that were supposed to open are either delayed to a potential later date or indefinitely delayed with no date given. They haven’t announced anything around fireworks or night shows coming back and with the early close time unless the hours increase it won’t be dark enough at park close to run them until Nov after daylight savings ends.

So while we disagree on how positive the current situation is (opinions can differ) there’s no disputing the facts.

Of course travel is down, never claimed that it wasn't, but do you deny that travel is increasing, air traffic was down 95% now it is 70% using your number. no anecdotal info there. 12 percent statistically is business travel, so you are close to now only 58% down for personal travel. Factor in no international travel of the usual 16% that number is even lower.

Not discounting the NE but the restrictions are limited to primarily there that is a fact. Outside NE you are talking only 6 states IL, SC, OH, NM, KY and KS, 8 with AK and HI. I never said I don't care about the NE, where did you get that from? Actually taking a vacation there in Sept , and yes flying, love the area.

Air travel is increasing

 

[Polkadotdress]

I personally think #6 will have more to do with demand then anything Covid related at this point. 10000 CM's are on furlough right now and that's just the start. I would bet there is many more out there that are in the same boat across the country.

The 10K still on furlough are *just* hourly Cast from one specific union. There are many, many more from the other unions, as well as countless salaried Cast.

 

[GoofGoof]

Of course travel is down, never claimed that it wasn't, but do you deny that travel is increasing, air traffic was down 95% now it is 70% using your number. no anecdotal info there. 12 percent statistically is business travel, so you are close to now only 58% down for personal travel. Factor in no international travel of the usual 16% that number is even lower.

Not discounting the NE but the restrictions are limited to primarily there that is a fact. Outside NE you are talking only 6 states IL, SC, OH, NM, KY and KS, 8 with AK and HI. I never said I don't care about the NE, where did you get that from? Actually taking a vacation there in Sept , and yes flying, love the area.

Of course air travel is up vs the 95% down when we were on full lock down but that’s certainly no reason to take a victory lap and assume WDW demand is going to shoot up. Despite that increase from 95% down to ”only” 70% down Disney still cut hours and closed resorts so it doesn’t appear to be moving the needle at least for them.

Seat capacity is just the percent of seats filled. It isn’t the number of total people flying. So if there are 3 flights that are all 1/3 booked and they cancel 2 and combine all the passengers into 1 flight then that flight goes down as having 100% seat capacity filled. The overall route is still down 2/3.

 

[legwand77]

Of course air travel is up vs the 95% down when we were on full lock down but that’s certainly no reason to take a victory lap and assume WDW demand is going to shoot up. Despite that increase from 95% down to ”only” 70% down Disney still cut hours and closed resorts so it doesn’t appear to be moving the needle at least for them.

Seat capacity is just the percent of seats filled. It isn’t the number of total people flying. So if there are 3 flights that are all 1/3 booked and they cancel 2 and combine all the passengers into 1 flight then that flight goes down as having 100% seat capacity filled. The overall route is still down 2/3.

Not taking a victory lap,but things aren't as bad as you are making them out to be looking at the facts. TSA checkpoint numbers show this see above.

I could say there has been a 850% in air travel since the lowest point in April, while 100% true is not a fair way to show the increase.

 

[Jrb1979]

Not taking a victory lap,but things aren't as bad as you are making them out to be looking at the facts. TSA checkpoint numbers show this see above

Things may look better then back in March. Come fall when the extra money the government was kicking ends things are going to be a lot different. They have already said that Canada is in a ression now.

 

[GoofGoof]

Not taking a victory lap,but things aren't as bad as you are making them out to be looking at the facts. TSA checkpoint numbers show this see above

I’m just stating a fact. Directly from the FoxBusiness article @robhedin posted:
“There are modest signs of improving air travel demand. The Transportation Security Administration said it screened 831,789 people on Sunday -- the first time it screened more than 800,000 people since March 17. That is still down 70% over prior year figures”

I’m not making it up that air travel is still down 70% from the prior year. That’s a fact.

 

[legwand77]

I’m just stating a fact. Directly from the FoxBusiness article @robhedin posted:
“There are modest signs of improving air travel demand. The Transportation Security Administration said it screened 831,789 people on Sunday -- the first time it screened more than 800,000 people since March 17. That is still down 70% over prior year figures”

I’m not making it up that air travel is still down 70% from the prior year. That’s a fact.

Yes, my graph above states the same info, those are the same numbers. People are flying more and continuing to even more so.

 

[GoofGoof]

my graph above states the same info, those are the same numbers.

I know and that’s my point. You are saying I’m making things out to be worse than they are instead of using facts. I’m just stating a fact that is backed by your graph too. Down 70% is down 70%.

 

[arich35]

I just hope some things are more normal by April/May to warrant a trip. I think Fireworks and a few character meet and greets but who knows if meets will come back in the next year