News Walt Disney World and other major Disney accounts stop posting on social media platform X

[Stripes]

I'm actually a fan of people who do big things and create value. They deserve it by taking tremendous risk. People are just people. The fact you don't like certain billionaires is no different than you not like some poor dude that cut you off. Difference is, most billionaires actually create value by providing products/services other people want...they are not billionaires by accident.

I’m a fan of people who create value too.

I’m not a fan of somebody who shamelessly claims, without any merit, that a hero that saved the lives of children is a pedophile merely because that hero was understandably critical of that person’s actions. And with those words, unleash their millions of followers to harass the hero.

Elon is not a good person in my book. That was pure evil.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Elon valued the company at $44 billion. Or, $54.20/share. He didn’t really want to buy Twitter. He wanted to give the middle to the SEC. But, when he tried to back out, Twitter’s lawyers put him in his spot and he was forced to sit down. I guess he can’t do “whatever he wants.”

While it was already bad for my mental health before Elon took it over, after Elon took over I had to delete the app and deactivate my account. It became so much worse. Twitter is also currently sitting at #109 on the App Store charts while Disney+ is sitting at #5.

Disney+ is a subscription based app. Twitter is free. Now, you say you want Elon to run Disney. I have to say, I question your reasoning…

Btw, Threads, the new Twitter alternative from Meta, has been at #2 for some time now. While Twitter is languishing in a hellstew of bots that Elon promised to fix ages ago.

You might have faith in Elon turning his company around but he doesn’t.

Tell me, what would you currently be doing that Iger is not doing? Peltz is taking a stab at a board seat and has yet to come out with any plan whatsoever or articulate how that plan differs from the actions the company has been taking. He was so happy with the plan he heard a year ago that he dropped his bid last time but now he’s back despite the fact that the company successfully made the changes he was demanding.

What about Disney’s leadership makes it the worst in the S&P 500? Two-thirds of the leadership team in May 2022 (after the stock slump) is no longer in leadership or has left the company. I don’t know how you can judge a leadership team with little over a year on the job especially considering the projects coming out now were set in motion under prior leadership.

The company “lost“ $200 billion in shareholder value because the investors are insane. Investors encouraged Disney to spend billions chasing subscribers (which they did to great success) and then Netflix subscriber growth fell and the investors started chasing profitability. And now they’re angry because Disney+ isn’t getting to profitability until 2024, which is exactly what the company forecasted back in 2019.

Sure, but those places bring a heck of a lot more value to the company. And the leaders of those other platforms aren’t goons making fools of themselves for the entire world to read about in the headlines. Disney was one of dozens of companies to pause advertising while maintaining ads on other platforms.

Iger’s response was a truthful answer to an interview question. Iger even praised Elon and his companies. It wouldn’t have made the news whatsoever if Elon hadn’t thrown a tantrum.

Speaking of Steve Jobs, a man who has clearly had a much larger impact on the world than Musk could ever dream of and clearly one of the greatest CEOs and businessmen of all time.

I never said $44B was the right price to pay or that it was properly valued. The fact he spent $44B after throwing it out there just shows 1 man can do a lot. I followed twtr for years because I follow a lot of companies and never thought it was worth even close to what it traded for, let alone the premium Elon ended up paying. It was emotional, which is why I threw out Disney as a possibility. He's crazy enough to do it.

I'm also not "advocating" for Elon"run" Disney or even buy it, but I pointed out his assets are literally more than the Disney company is worth. Then I get responses the richest person in the world isn't good at making money (LOL) and net worth isn't cash. Look, I get it. I get there are a lot of complexities in turning Tesla, SpaceX and Twitter assets into cash to make a real offer, but he could take a massive stab at have a lot of influence at Disney if he's really motivated. I don't think he is necessarily doing it.

I also think Elon does care about free speech and buying Twitter was something more deep than just surface stuff like SEC.

I can easily say Disney's management (despite the change) is still among the worst if not the worst. It's obviously bit of a euphemism as I can't possibly know enough about all 500 companies, but $200B lost is pretty good evidence. So is their leader's constant political bickering, inability to return to any reasonable profitability, and garbage earnings performance quarter after quarter. I listen to every call and read the reports.

If I were Iger, I'd resign. He's too old. He's run his course. He was a decent exec that made some nice acquisitions and simply is terrible now. The proof is in the results - stock, earnings, earnings calls, interviews - I'm not impressed. If I could, I'd get rid of every single board member and demand more accountability from every business in the company. No politics, no agendas, simply good story-telling and laser focus on operations, process, and cost control. Personally, I think his biggest failure is allowing the death of storytelling and the creep of agendas in movies. Disney+ is still poorly managed. Parks are worse. Movies are a disaster. Costs for Disney+ despite garnering a lot of subscribers have been out of control - I still think it loses too much money. I could go on.

AAPL has made me so much money that I'd never say anything bad about Steve Jobs, but Jobs and Musk are quite similar. I don't agree Jobs had more influence the Musk - and Musk isn't done.

 

[J4546]

Does anyone know how much money disney was spending on twitter ads?

 

[Stripes]

I never said $44B was the right price to pay or that it was properly valued. The fact he spent $44B after throwing it out there just shows 1 man can do a lot. I followed twtr for years because I follow a lot of companies and never thought it was worth even close to what it traded for, let alone the premium Elon ended up paying. It was emotional, which is why I threw out Disney as a possibility. He's crazy enough to do it.

Elon is not passionate about Disney’s business. He doesn’t care about Disney. He wants ad money and thought that threatening Twitter’s demise would bring it back. On the other hand, he is addicted to Twitter. According to his biographer, Elon asked hotel staff to unlock a safe so he could tweet at 3 am after a Tesla board member had locked Elon’s phone inside to keep him off Twitter.

I'm not "advocating" for Disney "run" Disney, but I pointed out his assets are literally more than the Disney company is worth. I get there are a lot of complexities in turning Tesla, SpaceX and Twitter assets into cash to make a real offer, but he could take a massive stab at have a lot of influence at Disney if he's really motivated. I don't think he is necessarily doing it.

I thought you said you would gladly turn your shares over to Elon with very little premium? Again, you want Disney to focus on the business and avoid controversy but you want Elon to have more control. Ummm…I’m not sure those ideas can successfully coexist…

I also think Elon does care about free speech and buying Twitter was something more deep than just surface stuff like SEC.

Yeah, he had no intention of actually buying Twitter until he was forced to.

If Elon actually cared about free speech he wouldn’t be banning words like “decolonization” in order to appease the ADL. And to be clear, my only intention here is to highlight the fact that Elon is not a free speech absolutist. He silences speech he doesn’t agree with.

I can easily say Disney's management (despite the change) is still among the worst if not the worst. It's obviously bit of a euphemism as I can't possibly know enough about all 500 companies, but $200B lost is pretty good evidence. So is their leader's constant political bickering, inability to return to any reasonable profitability, and garbage earnings performance quarter after quarter. I listen to every call and read the reports.

Again, most of the current leadership was not in charge when the stock sank. Iger’s “constant political bickering?” What are you talking about? Did you actually listen to what Iger said? Please quote him. Free cash flow is expected to return to around $8 billion in FY 2024. Seems reasonable to me. After their last “garbage earnings report” the stock went up by 10%. Such utter trash.

Personally, I think his biggest failure is allowing the death of storytelling and the creep of agendas in movies.

Disney still had 4 of the top 10 highest grossing films this year. Disney’s current storytelling is not at its best, I’ll grant you that. But it’s been much, much worse. And frankly, I’m very excited about the 2024 film slate.

You’re upset about agendas but can you give me one film studio that doesn’t have agendas in their films? Netflix‘s stock is kicking butt, but they’ve got agendas in their content, let me tell you.

You may think his biggest failure is the increase in agendas at the company, but if I were you, I’d be careful about what I wish for. Iger has a very close relationship with the creatives and for him to say he “doesn’t want to tolerate“ messages at the expense of entertainment in Disney’s content speaks volumes. If I were in your shoes, I’d be cheering him to stay. I’d say it’s unlikely someone will fill his shoes with the same perspective and relationship with creatives.

Disney+ is still poorly managed.

Costs for Disney+ despite garnering a lot of subscribers have been out of control - I still think it loses too much money.

Could be better, sure. But it’s certainly on the right track. Disney+ ad revenue is strong and with Hulu being merged, I expect average watch time will increase, further driving ad revenue and slightly reducing churn. The account sharing crackdown is coming soon too, which will increase subscriber counts and drive revenue.

They’re also reducing their content spend to focus on quality, which is a great decision. Wasting money on something nobody watches is one of the dumbest things Netflix does, and it was dumb to follow them. With that said, Disney+ is expected to become profitable next year, sooner than any streaming service that’s not Netflix. (WBD has characterized their streaming service as profitable, but it’s not as it includes their HBO cable subscriptions.)

Parks are worse.

The parks are doing quite well financially. They’re expanding the cruise business massively and increasing capex given the very high returns on invested capital.

Movies are a disaster.

After a decade of hit after hit, with several billion dollar movies per year, the studio has been going through a creative rough patch. I have no doubt it will get turned around, in fact I’m very excited about film slate next year.

AAPL has made me so much money that I'd never say anything bad about Steve Jobs, but Jobs and Musk are quite similar

No, they’re not. One could argue they are both visionaries, with a lot of drive, and could get extremely irate at their employees, but beyond that? They are quite different.

Steve’s impact on the world is felt every single day by billions of people. The number of people impacted by Musk is negligible by comparison.

I don't think calling people names is really productive or justified, but it's just free speech at the end of the day.

It wasn’t free speech. It was libel. And it was evil.

Also, while I don't agree with his approach, Iger is hypocritical to not pull content from platforms with demonstrable shortcomings. He's clearly doing it to X because of Elon and the political views at X today versus before.

This is nonsense. Again, the other platforms are not in the headlines every other day for some new crackpot thing their owner is saying. Twitter is not very valuable to advertisers anyway, so pausing was easy. It’s like investing in China vs Russia. Investing in China has a lot of risk but it brings a ton of reward to the business. Investing in Russia also has a lot of risk, but it brings little of value. Companies invest in China but they don’t invest in Russia. Risk vs reward. Capitalism.

Disney would be back on Twitter right now if Elon hadn’t shot his mouth off and told his advertisers to F off. Advertisers temporarily pause spending on various platforms all the time to distance themselves from ongoing controversy but then they come right back when the controversy is over. This time may be different though.

Twitter has always been a sewer and Disney advertised until Elon said one stupid thing on Twitter. I personally don't believe Elon is Anti-Semitic.

I guarantee Disney has paused ad spending on Twitter due to controversy before Elon took it over. I guarantee it. Furthermore, Disney didn’t even lead the advertiser exodus. They joined after many other companies had already left. And they stayed on the platform for much, much longer than other companies did. Right after Elon took over, a lot of companies jumped ship way back then. But Disney stayed through it all. They even stayed through blue check mark debacle when randos would impersonate businesses, even causing Eli Lilly’s stock to temporarily fall 6% after a fake account announced Eli Lilly would give away insulin for free.

Iger is trying to play politics and virtue signal, just like the movies he's allowing in theaters.

He’s just being a good businessman and weighing the risk of spending millions of advertising dollars on a highly controversial platform led by a crackpot that could say something even dumber in two minutes vs the reward of a fraction of the customers they would attain by spending those dollars on more lucrative platforms.

Also, brand advertising is literally virtue signaling. It’s practically the definition.

 

[Santa Raccoon 77]

Does anyone know how much money disney was spending on twitter ads?

 

[mkt]

Does anyone know how much money disney was spending on twitter ads?

No one outside of Disney does.

But based off of my prior experience dealing with media agencies on behalf of clients as large and well-known as Disney, likely "zero". The agency would likely buy the space from Twitter/X at a huge bulk discount, and would "give" it to Disney (and their other clients) as a "free" value-add to a social media package that included FB/IG/YT, and maybe Tik-tok/Pinterest/Reddit.

 

[Lilofan]

Does anyone know how much money disney was spending on twitter ads?

No but Statisca reports TWDC spent $7.2B to advertise worldwide in 2022.

 

[mkt]

No but Statisca reports TWDC spent $7.2B to advertise worldwide in 2022.

In order to determine how much was on X/twitter - even if free - would be to get their internal numbers then find out how much was spent on social. If each network has a line item, then great, if not, then do a breakdown of which social networks had spend, and then do the math based on usage between social networks. And if twitter was free, then go by doing math using whatever Disney's metrics are on ROI to try and determine a dollar value for it.

 

[Lilofan]

In order to determine how much was on X/twitter - even if free - would be to get their internal numbers then find out how much was spent on social. If each network has a line item, then great, if not, then do a breakdown of which social networks had spend, and then do the math based on usage between social networks. And if twitter was free, then go by doing math using whatever Disney's metrics are on ROI to try and determine a dollar value for it.

And TWDC is also getting free advertising when YouTubers , and many other social media outlets are advertising all about the Mouse and his world.

 

[mkt]

And TWDC is also getting free advertising when YouTubers , and many other social media outlets are advertising all about the Mouse and his world.

Content creators are a gray area, because not every company quantifies a value for their free advertising. Furthermore, plenty of content creators get in-kind benefits which do have some monetary value.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Elon is not passionate about Disney’s business. He doesn’t care about Disney. He wants ad money and thought that threatening Twitter’s demise would bring it back. On the other hand, he is addicted to Twitter. According to his biographer, Elon asked hotel staff to unlock a safe so he could tweet at 3 am after a Tesla board member had locked Elon’s phone inside to keep him off Twitter.

I thought you said you would gladly turn your shares over to Elon with very little premium? Again, you want Disney to focus on the business and avoid controversy but you want Elon to have more control. Ummm…I’m not sure those ideas can successfully coexist…

Yeah, he had no intention of actually buying Twitter until he was forced to.

If Elon actually cared about free speech he wouldn’t be banning words like “decolonization” in order to appease the ADL. And to be clear, my only intention here is to highlight the fact that Elon is not a free speech absolutist. He silences speech he doesn’t agree with.

Again, most of the current leadership was not in charge when the stock sank. Iger’s “constant political bickering?” What are you talking about? Did you actually listen to what Iger said? Please quote him. Free cash flow is expected to return to around $8 billion in FY 2024. Seems reasonable to me. After their last “garbage earnings report” the stock went up by 10%. Such utter trash.

Disney still had 4 of the top 10 highest grossing films this year. Disney’s current storytelling is not at its best, I’ll grant you that. But it’s been much, much worse. And frankly, I’m very excited about the 2024 film slate.

You’re upset about agendas but can you give me one film studio that doesn’t have agendas in their films? Netflix‘s stock is kicking butt, but they’ve got agendas in their content, let me tell you.

You may think his biggest failure is the increase in agendas at the company, but if I were you, I’d be careful about what I wish for. Iger has a very close relationship with the creatives and for him to say he “doesn’t want to tolerate“ messages at the expense of entertainment in Disney’s content speaks volumes. If I were in your shoes, I’d be cheering him to stay. I’d say it’s unlikely someone will fill his shoes with the same perspective and relationship with creatives.


Could be better, sure. But it’s certainly on the right track. Disney+ ad revenue is strong and with Hulu being merged, I expect average watch time will increase, further driving ad revenue and slightly reducing churn. The account sharing crackdown is coming soon too, which will increase subscriber counts and drive revenue.

They’re also reducing their content spend to focus on quality, which is a great decision. Wasting money on something nobody watches is one of the dumbest things Netflix does, and it was dumb to follow them. With that said, Disney+ is expected to become profitable next year, sooner than any streaming service that’s not Netflix. (WBD has characterized their streaming service as profitable, but it’s not as it includes their HBO cable subscriptions.)

The parks are doing quite well financially. They’re expanding the cruise business massively and increasing capex given the very high returns on invested capital.

After a decade of hit after hit, with several billion dollar movies per year, the studio has been going through a creative rough patch. I have no doubt it will get turned around, in fact I’m very excited about film slate next year.

No, they’re not. One could argue they are both visionaries, with a lot of drive, and could get extremely irate at their employees, but beyond that? They are quite different.

It wasn’t free speech. It was libel. And it was evil.

This is nonsense. Again, the other platforms are not in the headlines every other day for some new crackpot thing their owner is saying. Twitter is not very valuable to advertisers anyway, so pausing was easy. It’s like investing in China vs Russia. Investing in China has a lot of risk but it brings a ton of reward to the business. Investing in Russia also has a lot of risk, but it brings little of value. Companies invest in China but they don’t invest in Russia. Risk vs reward. Capitalism.

Disney would be back on Twitter right now if Elon hadn’t shot his mouth off and told his advertisers to F off. Advertisers temporarily pause spending on various platforms all the time to distance themselves from ongoing controversy but then they come right back when the controversy is over. This time may be different though.

I guarantee Disney has paused ad spending on Twitter due to controversy before Elon took it over. I guarantee it. Furthermore, Disney didn’t even lead the advertiser exodus. They joined after many other companies had already left. And they stayed on the platform for much, much longer than other companies did. Right after Elon took over, a lot of companies jumped ship way back then. But Disney stayed through it all. They even stayed through blue check mark debacle when randos would impersonate businesses, even causing Eli Lilly’s stock to temporarily fall 6% after a fake account announced Eli Lilly would give away insulin for free.

He’s just being a good businessman and weighing the risk of spending millions of advertising dollars on a highly controversial platform led by a crackpot that could say something even dumber in two minutes vs the reward of a fraction of the customers they would attain by spending those dollars on more lucrative platforms.

Also, brand advertising is literally virtue signaling. It’s practically the definition.

I'd sell to Elon only because I want to get out of the trade and don't believe in Disney as you seem to. Again, I don't "want" Elon to control Disney. The original discussion started because I believe Elon could do a lot more to get a voice in Disney if he wanted to. I want anyone else to manage them better than they are being managed currently, which is terribly by subjective and objective (performance based - stock, movies, earnings, etc) measures.

You explain away everything, yet the market disagrees with your assessment as do I. I'm well aware the stock rose one day and more aware it has largely evaporated anyway. The pop was only because they finally stopped hemorrhaging money from the streaming biz and there was activist hope. Their earnings are still trash and Disney hasn't had a respectable year since 2019.

Why do I call their earnings garbage?

Disney had operating profit in the $3-4B range per quarter and now is half that.

Their overall net income was trending in the $10B+ range annually and is now lucky to be $2-3B.

Net Income Trailing 12 Months

Parks have only performed well financially because they just keep raising prices. The product itself is worse and will play out longer term as customers realize they're being played. And no one loves the parks more than me.

I think Disney is becoming a controversial platform and they risk losing their target audience.

The market hates the stock, but maybe it's an opportunity for believers. Are you buying? You sure sound like the lone bull.

Iger won't be around to turn around the company. That ship has sailed. I wish they'd rip the band-aid off now. You have a difficult case to call Iger a "good" businessman today. He's washed up and his company is floundering.

I'm not going to list off more reasons Musk and Jobs are similar, but you admitted 3 pretty big ones and ended with "but they're pretty different." OK, think what you want. Elon Musk's biographer Walter Isaacson once said the Tesla CEO was "in some ways the Steve Jobs of our time."

 

[Stripes]

You explain away everything, yet the market disagrees with your assessment as do I. I'm well aware the stock rose one day and more aware it has largely evaporated anyway.

The stock is still up 8% since earnings.

Their earnings are still trash and Disney hasn't had a respectable year since 2019.

Their post-2019 earnings are understandable given the state of their industry. However, Disney is very, very well positioned to be one of few streaming offerings to survive and thrive in the post-cable world. I do expect 2024 will be a much better year for the company’s earnings.

Parks have only performed well financially because they just keep raising prices. The product itself is worse and will play out longer term as customers realize they're being played. And no one loves the parks more than me.

The product is fantastic and a great value compared to many other experiences on the market. Furthermore, price increases do not account for most of the success at parks. Solid investments in guest experiences have justified said price increases. Guest satisfaction is up, not down. And guest spending is up even beyond the price increases.

I think Disney is becoming a controversial platform and they risk losing their target audience.

In these incredibly polarizing times, is there anything at this point that is not controversial? Furthermore, Disney’s target audience is incredibly diverse. Who is their “target audience” they risk losing?

The market hates the stock, but maybe it's an opportunity for believers. Are you buying? You sure sound like the lone bull.

Yes, I bought in when the stock was in the mid-80s. I don’t think I’m the only bull.

Iger won't be around to turn around the company. That ship has sailed. I wish they'd rip the band-aid off now.

Yes, he will.

 

[Chef Mickey]

The stock is still up 8% since earnings.

Their post-2019 earnings are understandable given the state of their industry. However, Disney is very, very well positioned to be one of few streaming offerings to survive and thrive in the post-cable world. I do expect 2024 will be a much better year for the company’s earnings.

The product is fantastic and a great value compared to many other experiences on the market. Furthermore, price increases do not account for most of the success at parks. Solid investments in guest experiences have justified said price increases. Guest satisfaction is up, not down. And guest spending is up even beyond the price increases.
View attachment 760330
View attachment 760331


In these incredibly polarizing times, is there anything at this point that is not controversial? Furthermore, Disney’s target audience is incredibly diverse. Who is their “target audience” they risk losing?

Yes, I bought in when the stock was in the mid-80s. I don’t think I’m the only bull.

View attachment 760332

Yes, he will.

You gonna pull out Disney's marketing materials next?

I was kind of giving them the benefit of the full pop which was I think over $96 and it's gone back to $91, so not like huge excitement and $5 is gone. The market is up 25% this year and DIS is up 2%. It's hated.

In 5 years, it's down 15% while the broader market has nearly doubled. It can't be understated how poorly this management team has done in the last 5 years in particular.

Haha, if we could rely on analyst ratings for stocks, we'd all be rich. Hopefully that's not what you're doing.

Iger is 72 and he's probably got 2 years to turn it around. If he does, I'll applaud it for no other reason than I have a several thousand shares and it will make me a little money. I don't care enough bc it's a small part of my holdings, but I do hope I'm wrong. If it reaches $120 or so in the next year, I'll likely sell regardless. My cost is actually below yours but the return is still not acceptable and I don't see anything amazing, so I'm willing to wait.

I actually agree the company is undervalued (*with proper management, execution, and vision - which they don't have) and is why I'm long and not simply giving up. I just have no conviction this group will do it and I don't see huge upside elsewhere, so I can wait.

 

[Stripes]

I was kind of giving them the benefit of the full pop which was I think over $96 and it's gone back to $91, so not like huge excitement and $5 is gone. The market is up 25% this year and DIS is up 2%. It's hated.

I’m not suggesting the market loves Disney right now. That doesn’t change my view of the company. The whole legacy media industry has gone through a tremendous amount of disruption and the market is not a fan of uncertainty. Their last earnings report showed real progress, and I fully expect that progress to continue at full steam although there will likely be some bumps in the road. I think the company’s long-term future is very bright.

The linear networks have been a huge drag on the company. But streaming has overtaken linear network revenue by quite a margin. For all of your knowledge of the company’s financials I thought it was very interesting that you found fault with parks but not a word about their linear networks despite those assets being much more troubled. I think the cost cuts at linear are a wise decision. It doesn’t make sense to keep pouring money into an obviously decaying business.

Haha, if we could rely on analyst ratings for stocks, we'd all be rich. Hopefully that's not what you're doing.

I’m not relying on analysts. Just my own judgement and knowledge. I was simply pointing out that I’m not the only bull when it comes to this company and its prospects. And apparently you are with me too, as you also think the company is undervalued even if you don’t believe in its future as much as I do.

Iger is 72 and he's probably got 2 years to turn it around. If he does, I'll applaud it for no other reason than I have a several thousand shares and it will make me a little money. I don't care enough bc it's a small part of my holdings, but I do hope I'm wrong. If it reaches $120 or so in the next year, I'll likely sell regardless. My cost is actually below yours but the return is still not acceptable and I don't see anything amazing, so I'm willing to wait.

I don’t think you have anything to worry about.

I just have no conviction this group will do it

Well I do. And despite the market’s feeling of uncertainty, I’m encouraged by the progress the company has made in the past year, and I’m very much looking forward to the progress they’ll make in 2024 and 2025.

I hope you have a merry Christmas!

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I'd sell to Elon only because I want to get out of the trade and don't believe in Disney as you seem to. Again, I don't "want" Elon to control Disney. The original discussion started because I believe Elon could do a lot more to get a voice in Disney if he wanted to. I want anyone else to manage them better than they are being managed currently, which is terribly by subjective and objective (performance based - stock, movies, earnings, etc) measures.

You explain away everything, yet the market disagrees with your assessment as do I. I'm well aware the stock rose one day and more aware it has largely evaporated anyway. The pop was only because they finally stopped hemorrhaging money from the streaming biz and there was activist hope. Their earnings are still trash and Disney hasn't had a respectable year since 2019.

Why do I call their earnings garbage?

Disney had operating profit in the $3-4B range per quarter and now is half that.

Their overall net income was trending in the $10B+ range annually and is now lucky to be $2-3B.

Net Income Trailing 12 Months
View attachment 760326

Parks have only performed well financially because they just keep raising prices. The product itself is worse and will play out longer term as customers realize they're being played. And no one loves the parks more than me.

I think Disney is becoming a controversial platform and they risk losing their target audience.

The market hates the stock, but maybe it's an opportunity for believers. Are you buying? You sure sound like the lone bull.

Iger won't be around to turn around the company. That ship has sailed. I wish they'd rip the band-aid off now. You have a difficult case to call Iger a "good" businessman today. He's washed up and his company is floundering.

I'm not going to list off more reasons Musk and Jobs are similar, but you admitted 3 pretty big ones and ended with "but they're pretty different." OK, think what you want. Elon Musk's biographer Walter Isaacson once said the Tesla CEO was "in some ways the Steve Jobs of our time."

I hate this post but I can’t disagree with it.

Disney stock has underperformed the market for nearly a decade now, unless I was looking for somewhere safe to park my money with little to no return it’s the last place I’d invest right now.

I also agree the parks are worse and the movies are worse than they were just a few short years ago, even the new cruise ships are inferior to the older ones. Todays Disney is inferior to 10 year old Disney in every way.

I want a shakeup at Disney too, and I think Musk is financially capable of creating that shakeup, but I worry about the chaos he’d bring. Musk buying influence in Disney could be the catalyst needed to turn things around but I think it’s just as likely it would be the beginning of the end to Disney as we know it, not just recent Disney but the one we grew up with and have loved all our lives.

 

[Lilofan]

I hate this post but I can’t disagree with it.

Disney stock has underperformed the market for nearly a decade now, unless I was looking for somewhere safe to park my money with little to no return it’s the last place I’d invest right now.

I also agree the parks are worse and the movies are worse than they were just a few short years ago, even the new cruise ships are inferior to the older ones. Todays Disney is inferior to 10 year old Disney in every way.

I want a shakeup at Disney too, and I think Musk is financially capable of creating that shakeup, but I worry about the chaos he’d bring. Musk buying influence in Disney could be the catalyst needed to turn things around but I think it’s just as likely it would be the beginning of the end to Disney as we know it, not just recent Disney but the one we grew up with and have loved all our lives.

Musk raised some points to ponder on why Disney continues to advertise on Meta ( FB , Instagram ) which reputed to be a breeding ground for child predators.

 

[Chef Mickey]

I’m not suggesting the market loves Disney right now. That doesn’t change my view of the company. The whole legacy media industry has gone through a tremendous amount of disruption and the market is not a fan of uncertainty. Their last earnings report showed real progress, and I fully expect that progress to continue at full steam although there will likely be some bumps in the road. I think the company’s long-term future is very bright.

The linear networks have been a huge drag on the company. But streaming has overtaken linear network revenue by quite a margin. For all of your knowledge of the company’s financials I thought it was very interesting that you found fault with parks but not a word about their linear networks despite those assets being much more troubled. I think the cost cuts at linear are a wise decision. It doesn’t make sense to keep pouring money into an obviously decaying business.

I’m not relying on analysts. Just my own judgement and knowledge. I was simply pointing out that I’m not the only bull when it comes to this company and its prospects. And apparently you are with me too, as you also think the company is undervalued even if you don’t believe in its future as much as I do.

I don’t think you have anything to worry about.

Well I do. And despite the market’s feeling of uncertainty, I’m encouraged by the progress the company has made in the past year, and I’m very much looking forward to the progress they’ll make in 2024 and 2025.

I hope you have a merry Christmas!

You too.

The analyst game is strange. It's more about selling articles and research than trying to provide good information. Analysts don't put their money where their mouths are either. They are just doing their employer's bidding.

The bull case for Disney would be reflected in its stock price. Currently (and for 5 years), there are more sellers than buyers in general.

I don't care much about the linear networks, but those assets are in decline too - again, a risk for the company. That's what made streaming and their inability to manage it so much more important. Disney has done a horrible job with ABC and ESPN too. Are you a sports fan? Disney has successfully almost ruined ESPN and paid too much for broadcasting rights while turning the once enjoyable Sportcenter into a politically driven debate stage. Overpaid on-air talent. Poor management. Toxic work environment. Awful management there too, but it's a declining business.

I disagree their last earnings report showed much progress. Again, it was primarily a result of activist talk and a little better result at streaming, but they still aren't close there. Their profitability overall was a total joke as I showed in my chart. They are not even close to profitability levels from 5 years ago. I understand they have to invest in streaming, but they were late to that party and are too slow and too incompetent in monetizing it.

All of this would be better with competent management. We talked about CEOs before. I think Tim Cook is actually a better CEO than Jobs and is a prime example of how good management can take a great company to the next level. Leadership matters. I know you're bullish but the results speak for themselves. They are doing a bad job.

 

[Chef Mickey]

I hate this post but I can’t disagree with it.

Disney stock has underperformed the market for nearly a decade now, unless I was looking for somewhere safe to park my money with little to no return it’s the last place I’d invest right now.

I also agree the parks are worse and the movies are worse than they were just a few short years ago, even the new cruise ships are inferior to the older ones. Todays Disney is inferior to 10 year old Disney in every way.

I want a shakeup at Disney too, and I think Musk is financially capable of creating that shakeup, but I worry about the chaos he’d bring. Musk buying influence in Disney could be the catalyst needed to turn things around but I think it’s just as likely it would be the beginning of the end to Disney as we know it, not just recent Disney but the one we grew up with and have loved all our lives.

It hurts to say it too. I was the biggest Disney apologist for years, but nothing beats good old fashioned hard results. Disney has been a horribly run company for a long time, particularly in the last 5 years. Proof is in the results.

It's hard to defend the decision making, but higher level than just the earnings results being poor and the stock doing poorly, the products are worse.

What products can you say are better than 10 years ago? Movies? No. ESPN? Hell no. Parks? I like Guardians?

Then you have people saying, but parks are financially doing well. Hard to argue, but they've doubled prices and people still go, so I guess? It's just people who really know the product like me and you know it's worse. I think pricing increases at parks are a slow indicator, meaning the pricing power they've had for the last few years will erode as people experience the diminished product.

Their last earnings report actually showed domestic park struggles for the first time in a while and articles like this popped up at various parts of 2023.

https:///2023/07/walt-disney-world-crowds-vanish-parks-at-their-emptiest-in-10-years-cj1/

Parks in general are a business not liked by Wallstreet anyway, so the company needs to figure out streaming - something they haven't done.

The whole Musk buying Disney took on a life of its own in this thread. I was simply pointing out facts that Disney is being horribly managed and Musk actually has the net worth to do some damage. And people started acting like there is no way, Elon is a horrible guy, he's not rich enough, he doesn't know how to make money, he's a bad manager, etc. Honestly, I just want new management. I don't really care if it's Elon or some other activist. I just think the current leadership has done about as poorly as you can do with a leading brand.

 

[Stripes]

Disney stock has underperformed the market for nearly a decade now, unless I was looking for somewhere safe to park my money with little to no return it’s the last place I’d invest right now.

It’s only underperformed the market since 2021 when linear revenues started to collapse and investors, encouraged by Netflix for their own purposes, started focusing on streaming profitability.

Investors encouraged Netflix to spend money like no tomorrow and lose billions gaining over 200 million subs. After they reached profitability and saw the competition coming after them, Netflix convinced the market to focus on profitability so that their competitors wouldn’t have the same amount of investor support to follow in Netflix’s footsteps. Thankfully, Disney already has a tremendous and unrivaled library of content already and didn’t need to build it from the ground up like Netflix did.

I also agree the parks are worse and the movies are worse than they were just a few short years ago, even the new cruise ships are inferior to the older ones.

I think the parks are better than they were 10 years ago. 10 years ago the latest major project was New Fantasyland after getting nothing at WDW since Everest back in 2006. They’re also better than a few years ago when Chapek was CEO. Disney’s movies were not great this past year or two, though I do think some were pretty good.

Two years of relatively weak films, mixed in with some good ones, is not a trend. Now, if the films next year are similarly poor, then I’ll have cause to be concerned.

Frankly, I haven’t taken a Disney cruise, but from what I can tell, the new ship looks like it has some pros and cons compared to the Dream and Fantasy. The theming on the Treasure is definitely more appealing to me than the Wish though.

Disney had operating profit in the $3-4B range per quarter and now is half that.

The vast majority of the loss is due to the secular decline of their linear networks while in the midst of an aggressive and necessary pivot to streaming that has similarly burdened all of their competitors.

The company has the best ad technology in the business, over 200 million DTC subscribers, and incredibly compelling streaming products with Disney+, Hulu, and eventually the full DTC ESPN offering.

 

[Chef Mickey]

It’s only underperformed the market since 2021 when linear revenues started to collapse and investors, encouraged by Netflix for their own purposes, started focusing on streaming profitability.

Investors encouraged Netflix to spend money like no tomorrow and lose billions gaining over 200 million subs. After they reached profitability and saw the competition coming after them, Netflix convinced the market to focus on profitability so that their competitors wouldn’t have the same amount of investor support to follow in Netflix’s footsteps. Thankfully, Disney already has a tremendous and unrivaled library of content already and didn’t need to build it from the ground up like Netflix did.

I think the parks are better than they were 10 years ago. 10 years ago the latest major project was New Fantasyland after getting nothing at WDW since Everest back in 2006. They’re also better than a few years ago when Chapek was CEO. Disney’s movies were not great this past year or two, though I do think some were pretty good.

Two years of relatively weak films, mixed in with some good ones, is not a trend. Now, if the films next year are similarly poor, then I’ll have cause to be concerned.

Frankly, I haven’t taken a Disney cruise, but from what I can tell, the new ship looks like it has some pros and cons compared to the Dream and Fantasy. The theming on the Treasure is definitely more appealing to me than the Wish though.

The vast majority of the loss is due to the secular decline of their linear networks while in the midst of an aggressive and necessary pivot to streaming that has similarly burdened all of their competitors.

The company has the best ad technology in the business, over 200 million DTC subscribers, and incredibly compelling streaming products with Disney+, Hulu, and eventually the full DTC ESPN offering.

It didn't underperform for that simple reason. The profitability of the company didn't recover, which is the bottom line. There were many reasons for that including the ones we've been discussing.

Parks are not better than 10 years ago. I go to the parks 20-30 days/yr. They just aren't. From operations, to staff, to EPCOT being a construction zone, Genie+, etc. I just completely disagree. I've been the the parks more than probably anyone in the world. I've been to every resort multiple besides China. WDW is probably the worst run of all of them.

Two years of weak films by your own admission is inexcusable. My view is that it's been longer than that. I'm too lazy to pull up all the data, but the movies have been underwhelming since Avengers Endgame and Black Panther. And a lot of that was self-inflicted. They ruined reboots for no reason and are in the process of ruining Snow White too. Even the "not that bad ones" should have been homeruns, but they are doubles at best. Disney doesn't spend $300M on a film to do $500-$600M in revenue. They need to be double that. Again, refer back to the net income chart I posted. None of it is good enough even if it's "decent" in some cases. This is Disney, a leader. Excellence should be the norm.

The reason they've underperformed is because the management of the business has been bad and the profitability is down. Way down. I showed you the data. It's not just because they've had some tough things to deal with on their linear networks. That's what management is for. That's business. Tough times, good times. Manage it. It's also be long enough to show some signs of progress which still hasn't been shown on the profitability side. Their bar is so low and they can hardly clear that. Any pops are hopes of management change and businesses doing "less bad" than feared.

I was impressed with how many subs they garnered in a short time and applauded them for it, but they've proven that it was a stupid strategy also because they lost money because of it. Such as serving customers in India content they spent a fortune on and got almost no revenue from those subs. Took them years to fix it.

Business moves fast. What you've seen since 2021 is inexcusable from a company with these assets, power, and worldwide brand. It means there is a deep problem in the company and should be changed for 2024. Not 2025, not 2026. Disney should have someone in the bullpen NOW to lead the company the next decade. Not relying on some 72 year old re-tread dude that already has proven to be washed up and sank the stock during a bull market. Wait to see where Disney goes if the market corrects next year. Inflation makes stock prices and earnings go up too and Disney still can't clear $95.

The fact Iger is still the CEO and they had to run back to him after the Chapek debacle also shows their incompetence and lack of long term vision.