I would say that nothing is written in stone from now on for all releases. Expect that Disney will push more to D+ in the future whether via Premier Access or for free, Chapek has telegraphed this with saying the "genie is out of the bottle". This is the new paradigm for all studios moving forward.
Well, like you said nothing's written in stone. Some movies might change back to earlier dates, some might not. Who knows? It's all a wait and see game.
Its not just going to be we hit 2022-2023 when everyone is vaccinated and everything is back to pre-COVID days with no releases to streamers. The industry has changed. Streaming platforms are going to play a larger role in movie releases going forward, again Chapek telegraphed this.
It certainly is. Disney and Warners might easily modify these plans again and go halfsies by having an exclusive theatrical period and move the streaming debut back a bit; if the numbers are are better. But that might as easily not happen.
Then they NEED to start pushing it NOW. Otherwise, if they wait too long, they may as well release it only to D+ and forget about a theatrical release.
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I'm not sure why this Disney+ equals lose money keeps coming up. If only 14% of D+ subscribers get Black Widow. That would be a 800+ million box office equivalent. Unless everything we have been told about how theater box office works is wrong. Disney+ should have been an easy win for Disney with an MCU movie. Personally I think they are waiting too long to release it on D+. I still firmly believe it should have been released on D+ PA in the heart of the lockdowns. We could then be looking forward to a limited theatrical re-release with a few new scenes and maybe a trailer for the eternals.
Actually, around $400 million. (there are currently 94 million subscribers). But even still, releasing it just to the theaters wouldn't bring in much more. There's NO way the movie would reach $1 billion or even close under the current conditions. Truth is, $400 million world wide would be absolutely PHENOMENAL (and probably impossible) in the current climate. So if they can do that number by releasing it hybrid, then I suppose it's a massive win.
But see, you are missing the point as well. I said 800+ million "equivalent". So if Disney did a 800 mil box office, their take is about 50%, so approximately 400 mil. The same as if only 14% of subscribers did the premier access. A lot of people talk about Disney wanting that huge theater money. Except a billion dollars at the theaters is less than 18% of D+ subscribers. Personally I think if Covid had never happened, Widow is a 700 to 800 million box office at best anyway. So since Disney takes everything with D+ PA, you can't make it a 1 to 1 comparison for success.
Okay, yeah, I totally forgot about the difference in take from theater and D+. Thanks for clearing that up.
That is the big question. And no one really knows. But the MCU has the best chance of any of the Disney franchises to hit that number in my opinion.
But of your 50, Disney sees only 25ish. And yes, people share login info, that is a fact of streaming. But we are not really looking at how many people, but how many accounts purchase it. So sure, some accounts will share it. But the other side is Disney only sees half of the box office.
Of course it is. Just like everything you have said is speculation as well. We just don't know until they actually do it. The re-release would be more about making an extra buck while at the same time starting the hype train for all the MCU that has been pushed back and delayed because of Widow.
And that is the big reason Widow should have gone premier access a long time ago. It is going to get real crowded real fast. And lets face it, Widow is not what most consider an A list MCU film. And will theaters be rocking in July? That is a heck of a maybe. I don't think the theaters are back to normal levels until next year. November and December hopefully we see it start to really turn in my opinion.
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