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US Cinemas Are Reopening Slowly.

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Shang-Chi is going into the theaters only for now. This might not change however Disney said the same thing about Black Widow and they obviously saw that it was not financially viable to only put it in the theaters at this time. Nothing is written in stone during this pandemic.
I would say that nothing is written in stone from now on for all releases. Expect that Disney will push more to D+ in the future whether via Premier Access or for free, Chapek has telegraphed this with saying the "genie is out of the bottle". This is the new paradigm for all studios moving forward.
 

Archie123

Well-Known Member
I would say that nothing is written in stone from now on for all releases. Expect that Disney will push more to D+ in the future whether via Premier Access or for free, Chapek has telegraphed this with saying the "genie is out of the bottle". This is the new paradigm for all studios moving forward.

Just the fact that they are willing to lose money by putting it on Disney+ shows that they are not confident in the current market. But I do think that as the year progresses and more people are vaccinated that we will see more movies being put only in the theaters but I don’t think people are anywhere near comfortable going back at this time.
 

brodie999

Active Member
Original Poster
Just the fact that they are willing to lose money by putting it on Disney+ shows that they are not confident in the current market. But I do think that as the year progresses and more people are vaccinated that we will see more movies being put only in the theaters but I don’t think people are anywhere near comfortable going back at this time.
Well, like you said nothing's written in stone. Some movies might change back to earlier dates, some might not. Who knows? It's all a wait and see game.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Just the fact that they are willing to lose money by putting it on Disney+ shows that they are not confident in the current market. But I do think that as the year progresses and more people are vaccinated that we will see more movies being put only in the theaters but I don’t think people are anywhere near comfortable going back at this time.
Its not just going to be we hit 2022-2023 when everyone is vaccinated and everything is back to pre-COVID days with no releases to streamers. The industry has changed. Streaming platforms are going to play a larger role in movie releases going forward, again Chapek telegraphed this.
 

Mmoore29

Active Member
Well, like you said nothing's written in stone. Some movies might change back to earlier dates, some might not. Who knows? It's all a wait and see game.
It certainly is. Disney and Warners might easily modify these plans again and go halfsies by having an exclusive theatrical period and move the streaming debut back a bit; if the numbers are are better. But that might as easily not happen.

And of course, even without COVID, streaming was going to expand significantly and there was going to be a reckoning regarding shortening windows and flexibility. COVID just accelerated the process.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Shang-Chi is going into the theaters only for now. This might not change however Disney said the same thing about Black Widow and they obviously saw that it was not financially viable to only put it in the theaters at this time. Nothing is written in stone during this pandemic.
Then they NEED to start pushing it NOW. Otherwise, if they wait too long, they may as well release it only to D+ and forget about a theatrical release.
 

Archie123

Well-Known Member
Then they NEED to start pushing it NOW. Otherwise, if they wait too long, they may as well release it only to D+ and forget about a theatrical release.

No studio is going to push out a potential blockbuster at this time just to see it fail. They will either release it in the theaters and a streaming platform like Disney and Warner Bros. are doing or just sell it to a streaming service for a large sum of money and accept that this is the norm for now.

Again, no one knows what will happen but it’s silly to think that the movie industry is going to get better anytime soon when Disney is releasing some of their biggest movies on Disney +. They lose money doing this even with a $30 price point to watch it.
 
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Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Yeah this makes sense. I forget some basic logistics.

In the past 2 decades, Disney has been a major motion picture force, starting with Pirates. With the acquisitions of Marvel, Star Wars, and then Fox, as well as the success of live action and new animations, they have dominated the movie industry like no other. It's even fair to say that movie theater companies have relied on them to be their biggest cash cows.

Now, none of these films are cheap. And for the films that had been in production, especially Marvel films, they haven't reduced their budgets. I'd say that is even fair to say that Marvel has had a disproportional amount of sway at the box office (even more than Star Wars now). So if you add the fact the the budgets are big, people expect these films, and they need to make money on them. We are now at a place where people want these big budget movies for free. Ain't gonna happen.
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Just the fact that they are willing to lose money by putting it on Disney+ shows that they are not confident in the current market.
I'm not sure why this Disney+ equals lose money keeps coming up. If only 14% of D+ subscribers get Black Widow. That would be a 800+ million box office equivalent. Unless everything we have been told about how theater box office works is wrong. Disney+ should have been an easy win for Disney with an MCU movie. Personally I think they are waiting too long to release it on D+. I still firmly believe it should have been released on D+ PA in the heart of the lockdowns. We could then be looking forward to a limited theatrical re-release with a few new scenes and maybe a trailer for the eternals.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
I'm not sure why this Disney+ equals lose money keeps coming up. If only 14% of D+ subscribers get Black Widow. That would be a 800+ million box office equivalent. Unless everything we have been told about how theater box office works is wrong. Disney+ should have been an easy win for Disney with an MCU movie. Personally I think they are waiting too long to release it on D+. I still firmly believe it should have been released on D+ PA in the heart of the lockdowns. We could then be looking forward to a limited theatrical re-release with a few new scenes and maybe a trailer for the eternals.
Actually, around $400 million. (there are currently 94 million subscribers). But even still, releasing it just to the theaters wouldn't bring in much more. There's NO way the movie would reach $1 billion or even close under the current conditions. Truth is, $400 million world wide would be absolutely PHENOMENAL (and probably impossible) in the current climate. So if they can do that number by releasing it hybrid, then I suppose it's a massive win.

The D+ numbers for a major MCU movie will be very interesting to watch.
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Actually, around $400 million. (there are currently 94 million subscribers). But even still, releasing it just to the theaters wouldn't bring in much more. There's NO way the movie would reach $1 billion or even close under the current conditions. Truth is, $400 million world wide would be absolutely PHENOMENAL (and probably impossible) in the current climate. So if they can do that number by releasing it hybrid, then I suppose it's a massive win.

The D+ numbers for a major MCU movie will be very interesting to watch.
But see, you are missing the point as well. I said 800+ million "equivalent". So if Disney did a 800 mil box office, their take is about 50%, so approximately 400 mil. The same as if only 14% of subscribers did the premier access. A lot of people talk about Disney wanting that huge theater money. Except a billion dollars at the theaters is less than 18% of D+ subscribers. Personally I think if Covid had never happened, Widow is a 700 to 800 million box office at best anyway. So since Disney takes everything with D+ PA, you can't make it a 1 to 1 comparison for success.
 

Archie123

Well-Known Member
I'm not sure why this Disney+ equals lose money keeps coming up. If only 14% of D+ subscribers get Black Widow. That would be a 800+ million box office equivalent. Unless everything we have been told about how theater box office works is wrong. Disney+ should have been an easy win for Disney with an MCU movie. Personally I think they are waiting too long to release it on D+. I still firmly believe it should have been released on D+ PA in the heart of the lockdowns. We could then be looking forward to a limited theatrical re-release with a few new scenes and maybe a trailer for the eternals.

Simple, I have four people including myself living in my house. If we went to the theater to see Black Widow we would have paid almost $50 to see it. Plus take into account how many households share their login information since you can have multiple accounts and now you have numerous people who aren’t paying anything to see the movie. So yes putting it on D+ means they are leaving a lot of money on the table.

As for releasing these movies back into the theater sometime down the road is pure speculation. And even if they do they will only get relative pennies in revenue since most families would have seen D+ movies already and there will be so many big picture releases that people will spend their money on these new movies and not ones they’ve seen already.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
But see, you are missing the point as well. I said 800+ million "equivalent". So if Disney did a 800 mil box office, their take is about 50%, so approximately 400 mil. The same as if only 14% of subscribers did the premier access. A lot of people talk about Disney wanting that huge theater money. Except a billion dollars at the theaters is less than 18% of D+ subscribers. Personally I think if Covid had never happened, Widow is a 700 to 800 million box office at best anyway. So since Disney takes everything with D+ PA, you can't make it a 1 to 1 comparison for success.
Okay, yeah, I totally forgot about the difference in take from theater and D+. Thanks for clearing that up.

I guess the big mystery, then, is how many D+ subscribers will actually pay to see/have BW? The best comps they have are WonderWoman1984 and Snyder Cut (both on HBO Max). But, hey, at least there have been superhero films released that they can compare. And July will have (hopefully) more theaters open and more people willing to go than in December when things were REALLY bad with COVID. But then again, WW1984 came with HBO Max, so people didn't have to pay a premium for it. Same with Snyder Cut.

So......14%? Not sure.
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Simple, I have four people including myself living in my house. If we went to the theater to see Black Widow we would have paid almost $50 to see it. Plus take into account how many households share their login information
But of your 50, Disney sees only 25ish. And yes, people share login info, that is a fact of streaming. But we are not really looking at how many people, but how many accounts purchase it. So sure, some accounts will share it. But the other side is Disney only sees half of the box office.
As for releasing these movies back into the theater sometime down the road is pure speculation. And even if they do they will only get relative pennies in revenue since most families would have seen D+ movies already
Of course it is. Just like everything you have said is speculation as well. We just don't know until they actually do it. The re-release would be more about making an extra buck while at the same time starting the hype train for all the MCU that has been pushed back and delayed because of Widow.
there will be so many big picture releases that people will spend their money on these new movies and not ones they’ve seen already.
And that is the big reason Widow should have gone premier access a long time ago. It is going to get real crowded real fast. And lets face it, Widow is not what most consider an A list MCU film. And will theaters be rocking in July? That is a heck of a maybe. I don't think the theaters are back to normal levels until next year. November and December hopefully we see it start to really turn in my opinion.
 

Archie123

Well-Known Member
But of your 50, Disney sees only 25ish. And yes, people share login info, that is a fact of streaming. But we are not really looking at how many people, but how many accounts purchase it. So sure, some accounts will share it. But the other side is Disney only sees half of the box office.

Of course it is. Just like everything you have said is speculation as well. We just don't know until they actually do it. The re-release would be more about making an extra buck while at the same time starting the hype train for all the MCU that has been pushed back and delayed because of Widow.

And that is the big reason Widow should have gone premier access a long time ago. It is going to get real crowded real fast. And lets face it, Widow is not what most consider an A list MCU film. And will theaters be rocking in July? That is a heck of a maybe. I don't think the theaters are back to normal levels until next year. November and December hopefully we see it start to really turn in my opinion.

Anyway you slice it Disney will be losing money but it is better that they release it on D+ Premier then just putting it in the theaters. Vaccinations are increasing but so are Covid cases in multiple states so there is no way that theaters are going to be anywhere near capacity especially as they are still limiting their capacity.
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Anyway you slice it Disney will be losing money but it is better that they release it on D+ Premier then just putting it in the theaters. Vaccinations are increasing but so are Covid cases in multiple states so there is no way that theaters are going to be anywhere near capacity especially as they are still limiting their capacity.
100%
That is why my argument is they should have released it on D+PA last fall. It was glaringly obvious what the theater situation would be like. That is why I have argued that D+PA would not be leaving money on the table like so many are saying.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
I'm guessing that as soon as new movies are announced, the first question in MANY, if not most people's minds is "when will this be on streaming?" and, in the case of Disney, "when will this be free for subscribers?". It's just the world we are in right now.
 

Surferboy567

Well-Known Member
I think their is something else that should be mentioned and that is technology. As more people get upgraded TV’s with 4K, HDR, and Dolby Vision capabilities. The home experience is becoming very similar to the theater experience. In some ways, it could be said the home experience may actually be better.

Obviously, these technologies aren’t in every house yet but they are starting to become the standard for new releases.
 

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