I know a lot of people are unwilling to accept that Disney would let Universal open months before WDW, but taking a step back and removing all emotion from the discussion maybe a plan to open later is actually the best business move in the long run. I’m no insider so I have no idea what the plans are or if Disney even knows yet. Just looking at this purely from an economic perspective. Let’s say for discussion Universal opens in June and Disney waits until September, in the short term Disney hands over a ton of market share to their largest competitor and loses 3 months of profits. With capacity limits and added costs to implement social distancing how much profits will they really generate? It’s not a huge loss financially.
On the customer satisfaction issue I think it’s a mixed bag. At first there could be many loyal Disney customers who go to Universal instead since WDW is closed. There‘s a chance that some of those guests decide they prefer Universal and don’t come back. That’s the general thinking on why it’s a bad idea, but with what Universal is doing with their opening including mandatory masks, temp screenings and various social distancing it’s also possible people go and have a less than stellar experience especially in the summer heat. Those guests may be more likely to return long term to WDW. The point is it’s not a lock that Disney would somehow lose market share long term over this. In 2021 nobody is going to care that Universal opened a few months earlier than WDW.
If Disney waited until Sept they would also create a built up demand. People always want what they can’t have. The old lock the movie in the vault and then re-release it to drum up false demand trick. By September it may be possible that FL is in full phase 3 and things like masks and capacity limits could be gone. Disney could be opening to a much more enjoyable guest experience. Even if masks are still around it would be a less uncomfortable as we get into fall and they’d have a few months of observations in Shanghai and at Uni to figure out what works and what is a bad idea. The point is Disney may be willing to give up a small amount of short term profit to ensure guests don’t have a diminished experience. I also think due to the layouts of the 2 resorts that WDW could be even more negatively impacted than Universal. Transportation being a big issue.
I get that for CMs that would mean extra months without pay, they but should get unemployment to make them close to whole (whether the system works is more of a state of FL issue). It would be a big negative for the local economy and the state of FL. It would be disappointing to fans who want to go back now too, but how many will really stop going to WDW over a few month delay? For the record I think a July opening is more likely, but the original post made me think a little about why a later opening might make sense. This doesn’t even include any implications of the NBA deal which would turn a little extra profit if it happens.
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