Touring Plans...Whats up?

[3fordisney]

We just got back from a short trip to WDW. Before we left, we checked touring plans for their crowd predictions and once again they were completely wrong. We checked it a few weeks prior and it had 7's then 1 week before it was changed to 9's. What's up with that?

While we were there, we found the waits to be less than it was in May and didn't match the crowd prediction numbers given by touring plans. In the past, its been pretty accurate, but this year it is so far off. It couldn't have been more wrong this time. We didn't experience 9's at all. I know the economy is bad and that might be part of the mistakes. However, I wonder if the times are inaccurate so more plans are being sold??

 

[3fordisney]

You sound like someone who would be very upset if they subscribed to a pay feature of weather.com and they predicted the weather incorrectly.

Its a PREDICTION and a TOURING GUIDE - neither is guaranteed to be 100% accurate.

I know many people who have been greatly helped by their service. I am a fan.

This is like a weather prediction and anyone can do it! That's my point. Why pay for it if its no better than predicting the weather? By the way, weather.com is completely inaccurate everyday. I wouldn't pay for that info either!.

I am not saying that they have never helped anyone. You are obviously missing the point. It wasn't a 9 or even close to a 7. The site got it so wrong and it doesn't make any sense and they won't answer the question. Since you are not connected, you can't possibly answer it. Its just odd for someone to get so involved if they aren't in some way associated with the site. :veryconfu

 

[3fordisney]

I was in Disney from June 28 to July 8 (during the Buy 4 Get 3 Free promo). Crowds were lighter than I have ever seen them at that time of year, and almost all of my trips have been around the Fourth of July. We walked on (and I do mean walked on) all of the E-ticket rides at all four parks. I certainly didn't complain!

We went to MK one morning when it opened at 9 a.m. We went on Buzz (twice), Astro Orbiters (twice -- when there's no line, why not?), Tomorrowland Speedway, tea cups, Snow White, Philharmagic, Small World, and had a truly excellent, unrushed meet and greet with Alice and the White Rabbit. We left for lunch at noon! We had pretty much the same experience at every park for the entire trip. We do avoid EMH, so I think that helps.

We were there July 16-20th and we always go expecting the worse and hoping for the best when it comes to crowd levels. We found that we were able to complete MK on Thursday evening, which was our arrival day. We got there around 6pm and finished everything prior to closing. We rode BTMRR and SM atleast twice during this time. It was the lightest crowds we've seen in 3 years! We sometimes do EMH, but did not on this trip since we were there for a shorter time.

This was the case at every park. AK was the lightest we've seen it since Nov 2001. We couldn't believe how light the crowds were, even with all the tour groups. If you took them out of the equation, it would have been even better!

 

[DisneyJoe]

Park Hours WERE extended http://forums.wdwmagic.com/showthread.php?t=457332

Just because crowds decreased 1% doesn't mean that would affect their entire statistical model - they take many factors into consideration - as well as monitoring of wait times in the parks by their staff. I trust their team and their statistical model - it has worked for years.

If you have uncovered something that needs to be corrected in their model, I have faith that it will be corrected over time - that is how statistical models work.

I am sure that they are thankful for your input.

 

[sweetpee_1993]

Okay. Aside from the OP's question...

I've wondered in the past if reading the Crowd Calendars and planning according to TP's best/worst hasn't become so widely-known that crowds will be higher by following these parks/days. For example, this past January we had planned our parks/days according to TP's best/worst parks/days. It seemed every day the park we were in (which was listed as best) would absolutely swell....then there were tour groups! We would talk to people on the buses and many who had been at different parks than we were on those insane days (yeah...I know...in January!) said they experienced sparse crowding. I started thinking the tour organizers were doing their homework same as me so we began doing the anti-plan method which worked out a bit better. ((For example, every stinkin' time we were in Epcot the E-tickets were steadily at 90 minutes plus except the evening it was cold & rainy. How does someone go in the summertime when attendance is supposed to be considerably higher and report a steady less than an hour for those same attractions?)) My brother and I experienced much the same in May. I'm just curious if following the best/worst park recommendations has become so popular or well-known that more people are using this as a guideline is actually putting us in parks that turn out to be more crowded then others as a result.

Or maybe my idea of "crowded" is much different than other people's so what I think is "crowded" other people I've talked to or read their trip reports think is "super low attendance"? LOL! **sigh** I miss the crowd levels of January 2004. That was the BEST!

And don't get me wrong, I'm totally not knocking Len's website or what those folks do. What I'm suggesting is maybe they've been too good for too long so now the masses following their information has created an opposite effect. :animwink:

 

[3fordisney]

Okay. Aside from the OP's question...

I've wondered in the past if reading the Crowd Calendars and planning according to TP's best/worst hasn't become so widely-known that crowds will be higher by following these parks/days. For example, this past January we had planned our parks/days according to TP's best/worst parks/days. It seemed every day the park we were in (which was listed as best) would absolutely swell....then there were tour groups! We would talk to people on the buses and many who had been at different parks than we were on those insane days (yeah...I know...in January!) said they experienced sparse crowding. I started thinking the tour organizers were doing their homework same as me so we began doing the anti-plan method which worked out a bit better. ((For example, every stinkin' time we were in Epcot the E-tickets were steadily at 90 minutes plus except the evening it was cold & rainy. How does someone go in the summertime when attendance is supposed to be considerably higher and report a steady less than an hour for those same attractions?)) My brother and I experienced much the same in May. I'm just curious if following the best/worst park recommendations has become so popular or well-known that more people are using this as a guideline is actually putting us in parks that turn out to be more crowded then others as a result.

Or maybe my idea of "crowded" is much different than other people's so what I think is "crowded" other people I've talked to or read their trip reports think is "super low attendance"? LOL! **sigh** I miss the crowd levels of January 2004. That was the BEST!

And don't get me wrong, I'm totally not knocking Len's website or what those folks do. What I'm suggesting is maybe they've been too good for too long so now the masses following their information has created an opposite effect. :animwink:

Looking further at their site, they often get the crowd levels wrong as I am not the only one who has asked the question of why change the crowd level so much so close to the date. The response is the park hours changed. That wasn't the case. I am not the first to ask the question and not get a valid answer:drevil:. They are more giving with a question when it pats them on the back than when it questions how they arrive at a prediction or what made them change it so close to the actual date.

I think there is no longer a "slow" time. The slowest we ever saw was Nov.2001, The slow time after Thanksgiving has increased as well. Its too hard to predict what crowds will be. We go when it best suits our schedule. We don't care what the crowd levels are. We are at WDW and love it!

 

[JerseySkiddie]

They address this frequently in their blog.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2009/05/12/updates-crowd-calendar-august-schedule/
http://blog.touringplans.com/2009/05/15/disney-world-crowd-prediction/
http://blog.touringplans.com/2009/03/31/top-5-misconceptions-about-crowds/

You said you didn't experience 9's but you didn't say what you experienced - all you said was that they were completely wrong...

Thanks for posting these. You beat me to it! Fred does a great job with the predictions.

 

[sweetpee_1993]

Looking further at their site, they often get the crowd levels wrong as I am not the only one who has asked the question of why change the crowd level so much so close to the date. The response is the park hours changed. That wasn't the case. I am not the first to ask the question and not get a valid answer:drevil:. They are more giving with a question when it pats them on the back than when it questions how they arrive at a prediction or what made them change it so close to the actual date.

I think there is no longer a "slow" time. The slowest we ever saw was Nov.2001, The slow time after Thanksgiving has increased as well. Its too hard to predict what crowds will be. We go when it best suits our schedule. We don't care what the crowd levels are. We are at WDW and love it!

I'm not saying that TP & the Crowd Calendars are wrong with their predictions. There were people at WDW at the same time I was there that had completely different experiences than mine with the crowds. What I'm asking is if there's any likelihood or other evidence that so many people are following these calendars that it could or would impact the very information that the calendars give for a specific park on a specific day as seen on the best/worst park columns. I'm in no way referencing the overall attendance rating numbers in the 1st column. I'm not challenging their methods or their information at all. I don't want to be misinterpreted there. I'm asking about the popularity or wide-spread use of the calendars and how that would or could change things. Like I said, my experiences could just be chalked up to a difference in what I think is busy vs. what others think is busy. Or bad luck.

 

[DisneyJoe]

Like I said, my experiences could just be chalked up to a difference in what I think is busy vs. what others think is busy.

You bring up a great point here - and that is that busy/crowded is a matter of interpretation for each traveler.

I've been to WDW many times, a few of the trips have been with my parents and brothers and their families. It's eye-opening, even among a family, with 3 brothers that grew up in the same household, to have such varied experiences while traveling at the very same time in the very same park.

To make a long story short, of the 4 families that traveled, 2 families found the crowds to be light to medium, while the other 2 found the crowds to be so bad that they were reconsidering if they should ever visit WDW again!

It's all very very relative.

 

[lentesta]

3fordisney, if you can post the other specific dates on which you were in the Magic Kingdom, I'll post the data that we have for those days.

The peak times for most MK rides - and therefore the data on which the calendar is based - is typically between noon and 3 pm. As you arrived at 6 pm, you would not have seen those peak waits on your first day in the park. To use your weather analogy, going outside at 6 pm to a temperature of 60 degrees doesn't mean the weatherman's predicted high of 70 was wrong.

You are obviously missing the point. It wasn't a 9 or even close to a 7. The site got it so wrong and it doesn't make any sense and they won't answer the question.

I'm more than happy to answer the question. What I'm saying first, however, is that there appears to be a misunderstanding about what the calendar measures. Let me know the dates on which you were in the Magic Kingdom and I'll post the data that we have for those dates.

Incidentally, the language in your posts has implied that my staff and I are somehow avoiding questions we'd rather not answer, and that we manipulate the calendar for profit. These are personal attacks that don't belong in a factual discussion about whether the predictions are accurate. Please stop doing it.

Len

 

[sweetpee_1993]

You bring up a great point here - and that is that busy/crowded is a matter of interpretation for each traveler.

I've been to WDW many times, a few of the trips have been with my parents and brothers and their families. It's eye-opening, even among a family, with 3 brothers that grew up in the same household, to have such varied experiences while traveling at the very same time in the very same park.

To make a long story short, of the 4 families that traveled, 2 families found the crowds to be light to medium, while the other 2 found the crowds to be so bad that they were reconsidering if they should ever visit WDW again!

It's all very very relative.

Good pun! Touche!

 

[sweetpee_1993]

Len, while you're here...Have y'all noticed an increase in the number of people using your Crowd Calendar info or purchasing Touring Plans? I guess what I'm asking is if your service/business has increased or if you've had any indication that the average guest is becoming more 'Disney Savvy'? I don't know if it's even possible to measure this. I suppose that's why when we call into (407)WDISNEY we have to go thru the list of questions "Have you been here before?" "Have you been more than 4 times?" "Have you been since 2004?" etc. LOL!

 

[lentesta]

On average, less than 1% of the people in any park are using the advice. It doesn't seem to be enough to sway crowd numbers one way or the other.

Incidentally, today we're predicting an 8 for the MK, which should happen between noon and 3 pm. As of 12:30 pm, anyone with one of those iPhone WDW wait-time apps should see they're reporting peak waits at Splash and Big Thunder of 65 minutes, and it's increasing about 5 minutes every half hour.

Edit: As of 3:30 pm various iPhone WDW wait time apps are reporting the peak wait at Splash or Big Thunder was...80 minutes (Splash, between 1:46 pm and 2:07 pm, according to the "WDW Wait Times" application).

We predicted 80 minutes. I love it when a plan comes together.

 

[Philo]

I don't think the question can be answered ot will be answered.
I'll ask it again and maybe the loyal followers will understand what's being asked this time:

According to spaceghost's post, touring plans has said there was a weekly decline of 1% since the end of Buy 4 get 3 free promotion ended. If this is the case, why change from a 7 to a 9 when the date got closer? (To my knowledge, the park hours did not change during this time.) MK was not a 9 at all during July 16-20th.

I think your question has been answered, it's just not an answer you want to hear. The park hours were changed based on new information. Maybe it was right, maybe it was wrong. That's the nature of a prediction.

It's safe to say that even with a steady 1% decline, there will be times when the trend stops or totally unexpected changes happen. Remember that the decline will be resort wide too. The total number of guests may have dropped but the crowds in MK can still grow.

I don't believe touringplans rig or alter any information unless there is a genuine need, certainly not to sell more subscriptions. I, for one, pay for the crowd calendar and as good as the rest of the site is, I generally don't look at the info because I'm not really a 'tourguide' kinda guy. If I thought that the calendar was being fiddled with to make it inaccurate (for any reason), I wouldn't pay and a sale would be lost.

For what it's worth, I think you just need to accept that the calendar is just a guess, but it's a much better guess than you or I could make. Maybe it didn't work for you this time, but it's worked for me before (I still remember the horror of ignoring the 'Best Park' 'Worst Park' advice!) and it will almost certainly work for me again.

 

[DisneyJoe]

FYI, the Buy 4 Get 3 Free Promotion ended June 27, 2009. With the OP arriving on July 16, that was less than 3 full weeks past that date, so if the 1% decline per week is accurate, there was only a 2% decline in attendance by that point.

 

[kbmum]

FYI, the Buy 4 Get 3 Free Promotion ended June 27, 2009. With the OP arriving on July 16, that was less than 3 full weeks past that date, so if the 1% decline per week is accurate, there was only a 2% decline in attendance by that point.

Do you mean June 27 was the last date to book the B4G3 promo? My parents' trip was July 1 to July 9 and they received the promo. They called when the dates for it were extended, I think back in April. As I recall, those dates were extended into mid-August.

 

[DisneyJoe]

Do you mean June 27 was the last date to book the B4G3 promo? My parents' trip was July 1 to July 9 and they received the promo. They called when the dates for it were extended, I think back in April. As I recall, those dates were extended into mid-August.

You are correct. March 29 was the last day to book it, travel dates were extended to August 15, but there was extremely limited availability between June 27 and August 15.

If you look at it that way, the travelers for B4G3 free haven't finished traveling yet....

 

[3fordisney]

Len, you are completely taking my question was too seriously and I have not personally attacked you or anyone else. I simply asked, as other people on your site have asked, why do you change it at the last minute. Disney did not change the park hours a week before our trip. So, that answer is not accurate based on my info. If you stand by that as your response, stand by it. It is not implying anything in regards to you or your staff. I am just asking for more details than 'the park hours changed'.

I actually went to MK each day. Our first day we did arrive at MK at 6pm. In your calendar, may I suggest, you put that the crowd predictor is for the time frame of 12 noon to 3pm, if thats indeed the time frame you are predicting for. I was there each day. I was there at different times, but was there on Saturday and during the peak time of 12pm-3pm. I fully understand that some people think thats crowded. We spoke to first time guest and they thought it was crowded. It was not crowded. It was no where near a 9 crowded. If you are depending on park guest to report back to you and tell you if you were right or wrong via an I-phone app, you need to state that on your site, especially when you post in terms of how accurate your calendar is.

I do not personally attack anyone on this board. I did not attack you and do not appreciate the fact you said I was. The question was not out of line. It did not attack you personally and there was no direct answer to the question asked. This is based on fact. Predictions are not based on fact. It is a discussion that you are taking way too personal. It has nothing to do with you. It has to do with the information posted and the sudden change of that information. Nothing more...nothing less.

 

[DisneyJoe]

You implied that they manipulated the data for profit, not once, but twice.

 

[bradandsarabr]

I looked at the wait times for 1:45 p.m. on July 18, 2009. Splash was 80 minutes & Thunder was 30 minutes. Based on those numbers, July 18th would have been an 8/10. 85 minutes = 9/10. So Len was pretty close.

 

[danstephg]

Geez 3fordisney, I thought I had a lot of free time at work!!