Touring Plans...Whats up?

[3fordisney]

We just got back from a short trip to WDW. Before we left, we checked touring plans for their crowd predictions and once again they were completely wrong. We checked it a few weeks prior and it had 7's then 1 week before it was changed to 9's. What's up with that?

While we were there, we found the waits to be less than it was in May and didn't match the crowd prediction numbers given by touring plans. In the past, its been pretty accurate, but this year it is so far off. It couldn't have been more wrong this time. We didn't experience 9's at all. I know the economy is bad and that might be part of the mistakes. However, I wonder if the times are inaccurate so more plans are being sold??

 

[3fordisney]

Disney Joe, what's your beef with this??? I did not personally attack Len. I questioned why they changed the predictions at the last minute and did not get an answer. I looked at the website and saw where someone posted the same thing and got the response of changed theme park hours. I checked the prediction prior to the trip and found it inaccurate. I checked several times. I am not the only one asking this question and I am looking for a more definitive response. I did not attack Len personally. I do not know him. I am questioning how the site determines changes in predictions less than 1 week prior to the dates. Its nothing more than that. You are reading way too much into this...Golly George people its not an attack!!! Is this the first time someone has questioned this business??? Because it is a business not one person and I did not attack a person or even the business. I am bringing up my concerns over why the crowd prediction changed at the very last minute and by looking at their website, I am not the first.

DisneyJoe, you got to lighten up a little. I feel as if I am being attacked for questioning info provided by this business. I did not attack anyone person and will not allow anyone to say that I have.

 

[3fordisney]

Geez 3fordisney, I thought I had a lot of free time at work!!

Who said I was at work...I would never waste company time posting on a message board. That would be improper....



:lol::lol: I am just joking...I do not work during the summer so therefore I am not at work. I am, however, a little disturbed by some of what I've seen here and my curiosity is getting the better of me...how far will people go to stick up for how correct a guess is...some people go pretty far. Its kinda fun to see. I am actually just looking for a more direct answer. Some people have taken it a little far...its just a discussion. I noticed on the trips taken this year so far (we are not done yet) that the info was inaccurate. I know crowds are in the eye of the beholder or the one with the Iphone app. Oh lighten up people and smile

 

[lumpydj]

This is like a weather prediction and anyone can do it! That's my point. Why pay for it if its no better than predicting the weather? By the way, weather.com is completely inaccurate everyday. I wouldn't pay for that info either!.

I am not saying that they have never helped anyone. You are obviously missing the point. It wasn't a 9 or even close to a 7. The site got it so wrong and it doesn't make any sense and they won't answer the question.

Sounds like an attack...

I did read it and it didn't answer it. It does not follow logic. If the right hand says there is a steady decline in attandance and the left hand says the crowds jump, how does this answer the question? The park hours did not change during this time so that doesn't answer the question either.

I find it funny how its not being answered other than read their blog. I find it funnier how Len, the person everyone points to as the contact for the site, didn't take the time to answer the straightforward question either. Its amazing how no one will say why it was boosted up during this time frame. Maybe the massive computers and fancy software they use to come up with this info crashed and they had to go to using fortune cookies:lol:!

Sounds like another attack.

Looking further at their site, they often get the crowd levels wrong as I am not the only one who has asked the question of why change the crowd level so much so close to the date. The response is the park hours changed. That wasn't the case. I am not the first to ask the question and not get a valid answer:drevil:. They are more giving with a question when it pats them on the back than when it questions how they arrive at a prediction or what made them change it so close to the actual date.

I think there is no longer a "slow" time. The slowest we ever saw was Nov.2001, The slow time after Thanksgiving has increased as well. Its too hard to predict what crowds will be. We go when it best suits our schedule. We don't care what the crowd levels are. We are at WDW and love it!

Not an attack, per se...but certainly confrontational...

We just got back from a short trip to WDW. Before we left, we checked touring plans for their crowd predictions and once again they were completely wrong. We checked it a few weeks prior and it had 7's then 1 week before it was changed to 9's. What's up with that?

While we were there, we found the waits to be less than it was in May and didn't match the crowd prediction numbers given by touring plans. In the past, its been pretty accurate, but this year it is so far off. It couldn't have been more wrong this time. We didn't experience 9's at all. I know the economy is bad and that might be part of the mistakes. However, I wonder if the times are inaccurate so more plans are being sold??

Accusatory and a bit of an attack on someone's integrity.

We were expecting heavy crowds from everything we saw and it was lighter than it was just in May. We were there from July 16-20th and where we always expect hr or more waits on Soarin', Test Track and Toy Story Mania, it wasn't the case the entire trip. At MK, it was 20 mins for Buzz, 30 mins for BTHRR, 50-60 mins for Splash Mtn and this was Sunday. Saturday was actually lighter wait times of 20-30 mins, even 1 hr after opening.

Compared to what was predicted (at first 7's then 9's), and these wait times, it was more than 1 off. Actually, for BTMRR, it was often posted as a 20 min wait and turned out to be more like 5-10 mins. I don't use the plans. We go often enough to know what we want to ride and how to achieve it. I guess what I am trying to figure out is why up the wait time expected when the original guess is closer. It was not a 9's weekend. It was much less.

If I were a first time guest and were planning a trip based on the info provided, I would be confused and would not have planned based on 9's. However, it was no where near 9's. It was a great time to go. I am fully aware that summer crowds are usually larger and with the economy in the shape its in, it would have an impact on crowd levels. We had no wait for a Dole Whip! I walked right up and got one in the middle of the afternoon. I've never been able to do that. I've always had to wait in a line for that.

The calendar is based on MK between the hours of noon and 3:00. In addition, it's based on the PEAK wait time of the most popular rides - at that park - during those times.

I agree that it is too difficult to predict what crowd levels will be, especially during these economic times. I do not base my trip planning on these predictions, but actually look at them to see how close or in this case, how far off base touring plans are for the time period we are there. I am concerned for those who have never been or who might actually put too much faith into a prediction by someone who sells a product to work around large crowds.

Well, I guess my point is why up the number from a 7 to a 9 if there is a steady decline in attendance due to the end of a promotion? It doesn't make much sense to predict a larger crowd :shrug:.

If you predict 7's and there is an apparant decline, why change it to a 9? I would decrease it or leave it alone unless there is a decline in the purchase of touring plans and higher crowd predictions lead to an increase in the purchase of plans.

Again, accusatory and a bit of an attack on someone's integrity.

I wonder then when was MK at a 9 during this time frame? I was not only looking at MK, but all 4 parks. It was not a 9 at any and also, the predictions were off in May as well. I am finding it hilarious that no one is answering the question and Len may want to read the later post:

Why change it from a 7 to a 9 when according to loyal followers touring plans says there has been a weekly 1% decline in attendance since the end of buy 4 get 3 free promotion? Its a simple question. Why not answer it???:brick::brick::brick:It has still not been answered!

Very confrontational - no wonder people feel personally attacked. I don't feel this is a very good way to "discuss" your question. Sounds like you're trying to pick a fight to me. Or maybe you think you'll be this hero wistleblower. If you feel the predictions are wrong - don't buy the book or use the website. It sounds to me that you're basing your entire argument on the "fact" that park attendance is declining. Because of the large amount of real estate WDW takes up, I highly doubt that wait times would be impacted based on a 1% decline on the most popular rides at MK from the hours of noon - 3. You also mentioned that touring plans should put a disclaimer on the site stating the logic of their plans. Sorry - but it's there. All but the noon - 3 thing - however they do state that it's the PEAK. The book explains what PEAK is. You still have not answered the question - were you at those rides between noon and 3 to record the longest wait time? Until you can claim that you were and what those times were - you should not be so accusatory.

I'm usually not one to jump into these arguments - but this one just got to me.

 

[The Mom]

Someone pays $10 for a touring plan, which he/she doesn't plan on using, but gets upset because the crowds/wait times are less than the plan predicted?

Am I the only one who knows that anything involving people is unpredictable, so all you can do is give your best "prognosis" based on experience and current data, subject to change at any time? And that having things go better than predicted is ALWAYS better than the opposite? :shrug:

If you don't think the touring plans are accurate enough, don't buy them. Most people don't.

 

[3fordisney]

Sounds like an attack...



Sounds like another attack.



Not an attack, per se...but certainly confrontational...



Accusatory and a bit of an attack on someone's integrity.




The calendar is based on MK between the hours of noon and 3:00. In addition, it's based on the PEAK wait time of the most popular rides - at that park - during those times.



Again, accusatory and a bit of an attack on someone's integrity.



Very confrontational - no wonder people feel personally attacked. I don't feel this is a very good way to "discuss" your question. Sounds like you're trying to pick a fight to me. Or maybe you think you'll be this hero wistleblower. If you feel the predictions are wrong - don't buy the book or use the website. It sounds to me that you're basing your entire argument on the "fact" that park attendance is declining. Because of the large amount of real estate WDW takes up, I highly doubt that wait times would be impacted based on a 1% decline on the most popular rides at MK from the hours of noon - 3. You also mentioned that touring plans should put a disclaimer on the site stating the logic of their plans. Sorry - but it's there. All but the noon - 3 thing - however they do state that it's the PEAK. The book explains what PEAK is. You still have not answered the question - were you at those rides between noon and 3 to record the longest wait time? Until you can claim that you were and what those times were - you should not be so accusatory.

I'm usually not one to jump into these arguments - but this one just got to me.

Well, I was there, as I've stated, at Mk during the "peak times". I was at the big rides on Saturday, during peak times, as I've stated. I was not the one who presented the 1% weekly decline as a reason. That was someone else who posted about touring plans and said this was discuss in someone's podcast as to the result of the end of a promotion. I know nothing of it, but was given that as a reason. Its not enough to make a difference.


I am not confrontational until those who have nothing to do with the site start adding their 2 cents in and all I am looking for is an answer to why change the prediction a week prior to the dates, any dates! My personal experience is that it wasn't 9's. I don't need to buy the book or plans to accomplish what I want to at WDW. I am just wondering why would they make such a change a week prior. Is it that for 1 brief moment, it registered a 9 so therefore, its correct? Give me a break...its a simple question. I am not attacking anyone. I am questioning why a BUSINESS would make such a change. Its nothing personal!!! We did not experience 9's. There 30 min waits for BTMRR and we never stopped moving through the entire queue. SM, as I said, was higher, but 1 ride doesn't constitues a 9. If that's how they work, thats how they work.


Why are some people overly sensitive about a matter of whether a guess is correct and reading way too much into stuff and taking things out of context??? Makes one wonder...

 

[3fordisney]

Someone pays $10 for a touring plan, which he/she doesn't plan on using, but gets upset because the crowds/wait times are less than the plan predicted?

Am I the only one who knows that anything involving people is unpredictable, so all you can do is give your best "prognosis" based on experience and current data, subject to change at any time? And that having things go better than predicted is ALWAYS better than the opposite? :shrug:

If you don't think the touring plans are accurate enough, don't buy them. Most people don't.

I did not pay for it and do not need a plan. I am not that kind of theme park person. I like to just wing it!

No, I am not upset because it was inaccurate. I just want to know why they change the prediction a week prior and thats it! Other people have turned this into something more...no one can predict how many people will be at WDW any better than someone can predict the lotto numbers. Its just a guide and we like to take a look at it prior to our trips and see how accurate it is. It has been off this year based on what I've experience. If someone else experienced a 9 last week, I feel so sorry for them.

I don't pay for things I don't need, I am not attacking anyone personally. I am curious why people who have nothing to do with the site are attacking me for asking a question about the site. Geez people...I think some are reading way too much into things and are over reacting to something that has nothing to do with them...seems odd to me!

 

[DisneyJoe]

You began the attack in your first post by saying the data was manipulated for profit.

 

[3fordisney]

Disney Joe, do you work for the site??? Just curious.

 

[DisneyJoe]

No - just a fan of Disney and statistical models.

 

[3fordisney]

We just got back from a short trip to WDW. Before we left, we checked touring plans for their crowd predictions and once again they were completely wrong. We checked it a few weeks prior and it had 7's then 1 week before it was changed to 9's. What's up with that?

While we were there, we found the waits to be less than it was in May and didn't match the crowd prediction numbers given by touring plans. In the past, its been pretty accurate, but this year it is so far off. It couldn't have been more wrong this time. We didn't experience 9's at all. I know the economy is bad and that might be part of the mistakes. However, I wonder if the times are inaccurate so more plans are being sold??

This is the original post. I did not attack a person. I simply brought up for discussion if the times were inaccurate to boost sales. I did not personally experience 9's. I did not during the PEAK TIME of 12-3. I was, however, personally attacked by you and others because I brought up for discussion whether or not a business who deals in predictions (not an exact science) might be a little off in the hopes to boost sales. Its not an attack. I would expect a business to do that. Prices are manipulated all the time for the sake of a profit...look at gas prices...Its not an attack on the business and definitely not on the person or persons there.

Predictions are not an exact science. if a science at all. Let me bring up another point...how do we know, unless we are all there at the same time, that the predictions were correct??? All I can go on is what I experienced and I am being attacked for stating that I didn't experience what was predicted and questioning why changes are made at the last minute.

 

[Eyorefan]

Well, I was there, as I've stated, at Mk during the "peak times". I was at the big rides on Saturday, during peak times, as I've stated. I was not the one who presented the 1% weekly decline as a reason. That was someone else who posted about touring plans and said this was discuss in someone's podcast as to the result of the end of a promotion. I know nothing of it, but was given that as a reason. Its not enough to make a difference.


I am not confrontational until those who have nothing to do with the site start adding their 2 cents in and all I am looking for is an answer to why change the prediction a week prior to the dates, any dates! My personal experience is that it wasn't 9's. I don't need to buy the book or plans to accomplish what I want to at WDW. I am just wondering why would they make such a change a week prior. Is it that for 1 brief moment, it registered a 9 so therefore, its correct? Give me a break...its a simple question. I am not attacking anyone. I am questioning why a BUSINESS would make such a change. Its nothing personal!!! We did not experience 9's. There 30 min waits for BTMRR and we never stopped moving through the entire queue. SM, as I said, was higher, but 1 ride doesn't constitues a 9. If that's how they work, thats how they work.


Why are some people overly sensitive about a matter of whether a guess is correct and reading way too much into stuff and taking things out of context??? Makes one wonder...

I think I kind of understand what you are trying to say. Maybe? I don't use the touring plans at all so I can't answer your question.

I just wanted to point out four things.

I just wanted to point out three things:
1) I understand that you aren't meaning to attack or offend anyone. Perhaps people are reading your post in the wrong way. However, you have to understand that when you are dealing with the written word, it is very easy for people to read things differently than what you intended. It happens all the time when things are written and not said.

2) This is an discussion forum so people who aren't affiliated with the company are going to comment on your question. If you would rather only hear from people affiliated with the compay, than I would write to them directly and not post questions about it on an open forum that is not affiliated with the company.

3) I have read through the thread and I think you have been given an answer to your question. You may not like it, but its been given. They base their predictions on PEAK times. I'm guessing they do this so you have a "worse case scenario" wait time. Why do they change things at the last minute? I know nothing about this site and how they actually do things, but logic would suggest to me that the information they used to base their original predictions on changed in some way. Since it is a website that can be updated in real time they updated their information. Again, I'm not sure, but I would think that up to date information its suppose to be one of the advantages of having the paid subscription. If you want information that doesn't change you can always use the chart they print in their book.

4) Since your experiance has shown you that the predictions are wrong all the time, then stop paying for the service.

 

[3fordisney]

No - just a fan of Disney and statistical models.

I just find it interesting how someone not connected to the site can read soo much into something thats not there. I was merely bringing up for discussion why a site might change predictions so close to the actual dates and a possible reason...I did not attack anyone personally. I, too, am a big fan of Disney, but I don't scream and attack others when they questions possible motives behind Disney's actions, especially when it concerns profits. Its a business and business exist to provide a service and make money!

Would you attack someone for saying that the price of a 20oz soda at WDW went up 50 cents so that profits could be maintained during slow times??? Last year it was 2.00 a bottle. Now it is 2.50. Would you say I was attacking the cast member who was selling the soda because I questioned whether Disney raised the price to maintain profitablity???? I would hope not.... but thats what you are doing to me for posing a question regarding a site that makes predictions.

 

[nibblesandbits]

This is the original post. I did not attack a person. I simply brought up for discussion if the times were inaccurate to boost sales. I did not personally experience 9's. I did not during the PEAK TIME of 12-3. I was, however, personally attacked by you and others because I brought up for discussion whether or not a business who deals in predictions (not an exact science) might be a little off in the hopes to boost sales. Its not an attack. I would expect a business to do that. Prices are manipulated all the time for the sake of a profit...look at gas prices...Its not an attack on the business and definitely not on the person or persons there.

Predictions are not an exact science. if a science at all. Let me bring up another point...how do we know, unless we are all there at the same time, that the predictions were correct??? All I can go on is what I experienced and I am being attacked for stating that I didn't experience what was predicted and questioning why changes are made at the last minute.

Want to clarify...I am, in no way, shape, or form connected to Touring Plans or the Unofficial Guide...just saying...

So because of that, I don't know...suggesting that they change their touring plans in order to sell more for their site sounds kind of attacking to me. It may not to you...but to me...those sound like attacking words.

I can tell you, that I have followed Touring Plans crowd predictions for a while...just to judge my trip, never to the letter, more as a guide for what days I'm going to visit which parks...but once I'm there, I very rarely judge the wait times with what they predicted.

In my experience with them in this capacity over the past few years, they have not typically changed their touring plans with the veracity that they have this year. This year, things are different for a number of reasons...particuarly the economy and the buy 4 get 3 offer...these have made it much harder for not only Touring Plans to figure out the right information, but also for Disney themselves.

There have been a lot of reasons why Touring Plans changed their estimates and they are stated in this thread. Most common reasons are that Disney changed their calendar and added more hours, that there was more information about more guests staying in hotels than previously thought, or any other thing that typically drives crowds was expected to happen that week. Now whether it did or didn't happen...is debatable...to you. From what Len has stated, it appears that it was right on.

I agree with eeyorefan though...they used the most up to date data information that they had, plugged it into the statistics calculator and came up with crowds that were higher than were originally expected (therefore changing the calendar).

As The Mom says...I don't quite see what the fuss is about...I personally would be happy if I came down to Florida expecting 9s and got a 6 or 7 instead. I would be upset if they had predicted a 6 and I got 9 crowds...that would have made me a tad upset.

 

[3fordisney]

I think I kind of understand what you are trying to say. Maybe? I don't use the touring plans at all so I can't answer your question.

I just wanted to point out four things.

I just wanted to point out three things:
1) I understand that you aren't meaning to attack or offend anyone. Perhaps people are reading your post in the wrong way. However, you have to understand that when you are dealing with the written word, it is very easy for people to read things differently than what you intended. It happens all the time when things are written and not said.

2) This is an discussion forum so people who aren't affiliated with the company are going to comment on your question. If you would rather only hear from people affiliated with the compay, than I would write to them directly and not post questions about it on an open forum that is not affiliated with the company.

3) I have read through the thread and I think you have been given an answer to your question. You may not like it, but its been given. They base their predictions on PEAK times. I'm guessing they do this so you have a "worse case scenario" wait time. Why do they change things at the last minute? I know nothing about this site and how they actually do things, but logic would suggest to me that the information they used to base their original predictions on changed in some way. Since it is a website that can be updated in real time they updated their information. Again, I'm not sure, but I would think that up to date information its suppose to be one of the advantages of having the paid subscription. If you want information that doesn't change you can always use the chart they print in their book.

4) Since your experiance has shown you that the predictions are wrong all the time, then stop paying for the service.

Thank you for your post. I was merely opening up for discussion why it would change at the last minute. I do not pay for the service, never have never will. I am just curious about a trend I saw happening and posted to see if anyone else noticed it too.

I wasn't attacking anyone and appreciate that you were able to see that. I'm surprised by the attacks posed on me for questioning a business. Seems stange to me...

 

[The Mom]

I did not pay for it and do not need a plan. I am not that kind of theme park person. I like to just wing it!

No, I am not upset because it was inaccurate. I just want to know why they change the prediction a week prior and thats it! Other people have turned this into something more...no one can predict how many people will be at WDW any better than someone can predict the lotto numbers. Its just a guide and we like to take a look at it prior to our trips and see how accurate it is. It has been off this year based on what I've experience. If someone else experienced a 9 last week, I feel so sorry for them.

I don't pay for things I don't need, I am not attacking anyone personally. I am curious why people who have nothing to do with the site are attacking me for asking a question about the site. Geez people...I think some are reading way too much into things and are over reacting to something that has nothing to do with them...seems odd to me!

And it seems odd to me that someone who states that he neither purchases nor uses the touring plans should start a thread about them. :shrug:

I don't see anyone attacking you, just as you don't view your remarks as an attack on anyone else. Just as with the touring plans, it all depends upon your perspective.

Since your original question has been answered - at least to everyone else's satisfaction - this discussion has run its course.