Ton Newton - Out

[GhostHost1000]

So a movie that has generally good reviews, and is sitting at #5 on the top box office for the year can't make back it's production budget?

To me that speaks far more toward the state of the box office business than it does any sort of creative failure of fault of the picture itself.

If it starts driving more traffic on Disney+, it can make up that $100M easily over the course of 5 or 10 years.

it’s not going to drive more traffic or customers to D+

Also Disney spent a ton marketing the crap out of this movie

 

[monothingie]

So a movie that has generally good reviews, and is sitting at #5 on the top box office for the year can't make back it's production budget?

To me that speaks far more toward the state of the box office business than it does any sort of creative failure of fault of the picture itself.

If it starts driving more traffic on Disney+, it can make up that $100M easily over the course of 5 or 10 years.

The problem is that you have production budgets that start at $200M, which drives this insanity.

Also keep in mind that there are fewer people actually seeing movies in theaters (not pandemic related). When factoring in the average price of a STANDARD ticket is around $15 up from $8 ten years ago, and the specialty seats, 3D, IMAX, etc. can go for up to $30 a seat, you have less people paying more to see shows.

It's almost unsustainable to keep expecting $200M+ productions to be profitable.

 

[Chi84]

it’s not going to drive more traffic or customers to D+

That’s probably true. My kids both have Disney+ subscriptions and they won’t take their kids to the theater to see any movie that will eventually show up on a service they’re already paying for.

 

[monothingie]

it’s not going to drive more traffic or customers to D+

Also Disney spent a ton marketing the crap out of this movie because well, you know

Rumor is that the marketing budget for Elemental was gutted and split to supplement both TLM and Indy 5.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Rumor is that the marketing budget for Elemental was gutted and split to supplement both TLM and Indy 5.

That wouldn’t shock me. They don’t make many smart decisions anymore

 

[monothingie]

If it starts driving more traffic on Disney+, it can make up that $100M easily over the course of 5 or 10 years.

Disney Studios and D+ are different subsidiaries of the TWDC. Think of them as different companies within the company. For example, D+ will pay Disney Studios for the streaming rights to TLM. It is quite complicated figuring it out. @Sirwalterraleigh you're on.

 

[el_super]

It's almost unsustainable to keep expecting $200M+ productions to be profitable.

If fewer people are spending money to see movies in theaters, and production costs are skyrocketing, what's the answer?

Make fewer movies? Make cheaper movies?
Raise the prices on Disney+?

This isn't just a Disney issue. Streaming has devalued movies significantly across the board. If you had told me a few years ago that a live action remake of the Little Mermaid would be on par with a Marvel Releases, I wouldn't have questioned its success.

 

[el_super]

Disney Studios and D+ are different subsidiaries of the TWDC. Think of them as different companies within the company. For example, D+ will pay Disney Studios for the streaming rights to TLM. It is quite complicated figuring it out. @Sirwalterraleigh you're on.

Oh I know. I'm sure they've already figured out their own internal metrics to determine how much value a movie is bringing to D+.

The question is really whether D+ is underpriced or not for the value that these movies bring.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

Rumor is that the marketing budget for Elemental was gutted and split to supplement both TLM and Indy 5.

Stupid decision. Sure, carve out X% of Elemental to give to Indy 5, but to supplement TLM when a simple digital strategy would do (versus continuing to pay for more premium TV or OOH) is a really stupid choice.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney Studios and D+ are different subsidiaries of the TWDC. Think of them as different companies within the company. For example, D+ will pay Disney Studios for the streaming rights to TLM. It is quite complicated figuring it out. @Sirwalterraleigh you're on.

Pass…

…I’ll take the physical challenge

 

[GhostHost1000]

If fewer people are spending money to see movies in theaters, and production costs are skyrocketing, what's the answer?

Make fewer movies? Make cheaper movies?
Raise the prices on Disney+?

This isn't just a Disney issue. Streaming has devalued movies significantly across the board. If you had told me a few years ago that a live action remake of the Little Mermaid would be on par with a Marvel Releases, I wouldn't have questioned its success.

Guardians 3 seems to be doing well

DOMESTIC (42.1%)
$346,409,833
INTERNATIONAL (57.9%)
$476,791,856
WORLDWIDE
$823,201,689

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

www.boxofficemojo.com

Vs mermaid

DOMESTIC (54.8%)
$257,984,611
INTERNATIONAL (45.2%)
$212,947,592
WORLDWIDE
$470,932,203

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

If fewer people are spending money to see movies in theaters, and production costs are skyrocketing, what's the answer?

Make fewer movies? Make cheaper movies?
Raise the prices on Disney+?

This isn't just a Disney issue. Streaming has devalued movies significantly across the board. If you had told me a few years ago that a live action remake of the Little Mermaid would be on par with a Marvel Releases, I wouldn't have questioned its success.

Or as super mentioned, it’s crazy that a movie can be the 5th highest grossing movie of the year and make $400 million and still be a financial failure.

Costs need to come down or Hollywood is in trouble.

 

[Andrew C]

Or as super mentioned, it’s crazy that a movie can be the 5th highest grossing movie of the year and make $400 million and still be a financial failure.

Costs need to come down or Hollywood is in trouble.

Just like their attraction costs.

 

[flynnibus]

That’s probably true. My kids both have Disney+ subscriptions and they won’t take their kids to the theater to see any movie that will eventually show up on a service they’re already paying for.

Did they stop going to the movies as soon as you had a cable TV subscription?

 

[monothingie]

If fewer people are spending money to see movies in theaters, and production costs are skyrocketing, what's the answer?

Make fewer movies? Make cheaper movies?
Raise the prices on Disney+?

This isn't just a Disney issue. Streaming has devalued movies significantly across the board. If you had told me a few years ago that a live action remake of the Little Mermaid would be on par with a Marvel Releases, I wouldn't have questioned its success.

Make better movies that have mass appeal. They've done this before but have seemed to have lost their way.

I think they need to rid themselves of the expectation that spending $200M+ equals success.

Maybe look at WB, more specifically DC on how not to do things, rather than following them down their road to ruin.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Guardians 3 seems to be doing well

DOMESTIC (42.1%)
$346,409,833
INTERNATIONAL (57.9%)
$476,791,856
WORLDWIDE
$823,201,689

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

www.boxofficemojo.com

Vs mermaid

DOMESTIC (54.8%)
$257,984,611
INTERNATIONAL (45.2%)
$212,947,592
WORLDWIDE
$470,932,203

Oh stop…

Did I mention guardians was REALLY good?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Make better movies that have mass appeal. They've done this before but have seemed to loose there way.

I think they need to rid themselves of the expectation that spending $200M+ equals success.

Maybe look at WB, more specifically DC on how not to do things, rather than following them down their road to ruin.

I would expect that if you bother to buy all time famous IP…get a focus group and spend 10 minutes studying WHY it was popular in the first place?

 

[flynnibus]

Or as super mentioned, it’s crazy that a movie can be the 5th highest grossing movie of the year and make $400 million and still be a financial failure.

Costs need to come down or Hollywood is in trouble.

It's not just cost on the production side... as noted the economics of theatres is in trouble too. The whole ecosystem struggles under it's own weight and now all the majors have in-house alternatives too.

I expect a future where we see more direct releases with PPV gating and that becomes the expected default distribution. Even sell PPV access without being a subscriber... basically all DTC. Theatres are going to die off as the primary distribution... and eventually the hollywood contracts and business models will adapt.

Big part of the problem is like what happened in music... the contracts and compensation models were not really setup with same kind of direct PPV kinds of product concepts... so moving to digital releases screws with everyone's pocketbooks until that is the expected norm.

The whole 'how can a movie make 300M and be a loss' is exactly why studios have been gravitating to 'known entities' and doing less movies but bigger. Of course this also sets them up for 'big swings, and big misses' when they don't work... and have little opportunity for 'surprise hits'.

 

[erasure fan1]

Thats a poor excuse for a Billion dollar entertainment company and if anyone believe’s that i have a bridge for sale in NY…
And funny how all of a sudden we have a lack of creativity when everything either became offensive or we needed to check boxes to appease the small masses of outrage. See Splash Mountains fate.

I'm not saying it's a good excuse. But it's unfortunately how they are.

 

[el_super]

Costs need to come down or Hollywood is in trouble.

Just going thru the numbers for some comparison.

#5 top grossing movie:

2019: Captain Marvel - Budget: $175,000,000 (worldwide box office is 6.5 times production budget)
2018: Deadpool 2 - Budget $110,000,000 (worldwide box office is 7.1 times production budget)
2017: Spiderman: Homecoming - Budget $175,000,000 (worldwide box office is 5.0 times production budget)
2016: Jungle Book - Budget $175,000,000 (worldwide box office is 5.4 times production budget)
2015: Furious 7 - Budget $190,000,000 (worldwide box office is 8.0 times production budget)

And for more color, as Iger likes to say, the remakes:

2015: Cinderella - Budget $95,000,000 (worldwide box office is 5.7 times production budget)
2016: Jungle Book - Budget $175,000,000 (worldwide box office is 5.4 times production budget)
2017: Beauty and the Beast - Budget $160,000,000 (worldwide box office is 7.9 times production budget)
2019: The Lion King - Budget $260,000,000 (worldwide box office is 6.3 times production budget)
2019: Aladdin - Budget $182,000,000 (worldwide box office is 5.8 times production budget)