News The Walt Disney Company Board of Directors Extends Robert A. Iger’s Contract as CEO Through 2026

[monothingie]

You're judging these solely on box office performance though, which at this point seems misguided.

If they are driving subscriptions to Disney+, Disney will still make money off them.

Two problems: One, Box Office is where the majority of the money is made. Second, D+ subscriptions have gone flat.

And like I said, it's been working so far. Disney+'s subscriber numbers have remained strong over the last couple years, and if things like Ahsoka and Loki are keeping people on the platform, then they are working.

Are they though? There is no evidence that these shows have done any of that. Ignoring the Hotstar subscribers, Disney LOST North American subscribers during the quarter in which Mandolorian S3 was released.

 

[Trauma]

Oh I've said for a while I think that's a major issue for Disney's box office. I also think they have trained their customers to know that it will be on D+ in 3 months much moreso than any other company has, making it so people can miss those movies and not care all that much. The question I have no idea about is if that drives subscriptions. As someone else mentioned, the major driver for subscriptions in our house are a lot of the older pre-teen shows on D+, and the Marvel/Lucas shows for me if I get REALLY interested. I watch Peacock the most funny enough, but I can tell you right now there is not a single movie that came out in theaters and then to D+ 3 months later that would sway my family decision to have D+ or not. I have NO idea if we are an outlier or the norm, but it's a fascinating question.

No one cares about the movies they have released.

They do not drive subs.

People may watch it because it’s free if they already have D+ but that’s about it.

Is someone here with a straight face going to tell me that there is this great swath of people signing up to watch the Marvels?

 

[JD80]

Somewhat. Here's the issue though. Universal is actually up from their 2019, and at the same level as their 2018 this year. WB is down about $500 million, but they released 13 movies this year as opposed to 40 in 2019 and 45 in 2018. 20th Century/20th Century Fox is down about $500 million (I think I put those two together correctly, correct me if I'm wrong there). Disney, down over $2 billion from 2019, almost $1.5 billion from 2018. Their share of the market is also significantly decreasing. They were over 20% every year from 2015-COVID. 2021, they were 20.4%, 2022 they were 18.35%, and at this point in 2023, just 17.3%. There may be an industry problem, but it is exponentially worse for Disney than other studios.

True. But it's also a bit unfair to Disney comparing their current trend of poorer movies to a period when they released some of their best or most anticipated movies like Endgame and Frozen 2. It's like both ends of the spectrum. If Disney can correct their current trend of underperforming/flopping movies we may see a medium.

Ultimately studios need to start making better movies all around.

 

[pdude81]

Didn't Iger say they were resuming the dividend before the end of the year? We're running out of year at this point.

 

[WDWFANUNY]

Second, D+ subscriptions have gone flat.

Last summer, WDW resorts was offering a discount on room prices for Disney+ subscribers. The discount was more than the price of a month of Disney+.

When Disney has to resort (no pun intended) to that tactic to get the subscribers count up before the end of the 3rd quarter, I knew Disney+ was in trouble.

 

[WDWFANUNY]

Ultimately studios need to start making better movies all around.

The studio needs to remember that they are an animation studio and stay away from "live action." Imo.

 

[monothingie]

There is a LOT of content that is being produced for D+ that isn't just Marvel/Star Wars stuff. Just scroll through all the shorts/specials/series/originals not to mention the Disney Channel Series and Specials still being produced.

I'm sure the people at Netflix are shaking in their boots.

The problem for Disney is that none of that D+programing draws subscribers because it is not relevant to viewers.

Competing platforms seem to have content which is relevant for demographic that draws subscribers. (Children's content doesn't move the needle). Maybe when Hulu integration is achieved that may improve, but it's also likely that Comcast will cut its content out of D+ upon the transfer.

 

[JD80]

Two problems: One, Box Office is where the majority of the money is made. Second, D+ subscriptions have gone flat.

Are they though? There is no evidence that these shows have done any of that. Ignoring the Hotstar subscribers, Disney LOST North American subscribers during the quarter in which Mandolorian S3 was released.

D+ subscriptions has increased in the US by 11% 2022 to 2023.

 

[Jrb1979]

D+ subscriptions has increased in the US by 11% 2022 to 2023.

The question is how much of that is due to getting D+ for free with your phone and things like that.

 

[JD80]

I'm sure the people at Netflix are shaking in their boots.

The problem for Disney is that none of that D+programing draws subscribers because it is not relevant to viewers.

Competing platforms seem to have content which is relevant for demographic that draws subscribers. (Children's content doesn't move the needle). Maybe when Hulu integration is achieved that may improve, but it's also likely that Comcast will cut its content out of D+ upon the transfer.

I will only consider D+ to be a competitor to Netflix once it's integrated with Hulu. Netflix by far has the widest appeal to all demographics. D+ not so much. With Hulu it'll be on the same "playing field" with content for all audiences. We'll see how that works out in years to come.

 

[JD80]

The question is how much of that is due to getting D+ for free with your phone and things like that.

All platforms do this, and they will continue to do this forever. It's a standard business practice. Hook someone in for 3 months or a year and hope they continue to pay for it.

Edit: Q3 2022 to Q3 2023 Netflix showed a 5% increase in US/CA sub numbers.

 

[Trauma]

D+ subscriptions has increased in the US by 11% 2022 to 2023.

What percentage of that is non discounted Premium subscribers ?

 

[JD80]

What percentage of that is non discounted Premium subscribers ?

All platforms have discounted or subsidized subscribers. Would be interested to compare all the platforms in this way. I don't think we get those numbers.

 

[LSLS]

True. But it's also a bit unfair to Disney comparing their current trend of poorer movies to a period when they released some of their best or most anticipated movies like Endgame and Frozen 2. It's like both ends of the spectrum. If Disney can correct their current trend of underperforming/flopping movies we may see a medium.

Ultimately studios need to start making better movies all around.

Sure, but you picked the date range. This year is the lowest they have had since 2011. And when you factor in the amount of movies released per year, it's their worst year since 2014. Really only Sony can claim having such awful numbers among the major studios. And this is not inflation adjusted, so not sure how that factors in as well.

 

[Trauma]

All platforms have discounted or subsidized subscribers. Would be interested to compare all the platforms in this way. I don't think we get those numbers.

If the numbers where good we would already know.

 

[monothingie]

D+ subscriptions has increased in the US by 11% 2022 to 2023.

D+ Core subscribers increased from 112M. With the majority 7.4M occurring in Q4 2023. D+ Lost Subscribers in Q1 2023 and Q2 2023 to the total of approximately 900K.

 

[celluloid]

If the numbers where good we would already know.

I don't think we would see a deal where Hulu offers 99 cents for a month or 12 dollars for the entire year. Steepest discount I have ever known them to have.

 

[JD80]

Sure, but you picked the date range. This year is the lowest they have had since 2011. And when you factor in the amount of movies released per year, it's their worst year since 2014. Really only Sony can claim having such awful numbers among the major studios. And this is not inflation adjusted, so not sure how that factors in as well.

My data range was just laziness than anything specific. My point is that there are significantly less dollars in the movie marketplace than before. They are being spent on other entertainment content. Maybe their movie ticket budget is going to more streaming platforms.

 

[monothingie]

I will only consider D+ to be a competitor to Netflix once it's integrated with Hulu. Netflix by far has the widest appeal to all demographics. D+ not so much. With Hulu it'll be on the same "playing field" with content for all audiences. We'll see how that works out in years to come.

 

[JD80]

D+ Core subscribers increased from 112M. With the majority 7.4M occurring in Q4 2023. D+ Lost Subscribers in Q1 2023 and Q2 2023 to the total of approximately 900K.

Correct.