News The Walt Disney Company Board of Directors Extends Robert A. Iger’s Contract as CEO Through 2026

[monothingie]

Just as too many "experts" look only at a movie's profit/loss in its theatrical window and pay no attention to the following pay windows to evaluate a movie's monetary worth. Making a profit in the theatrical window is bragging rights. But it's the net profit from the final window that matters to the studios as a business.

If studios had to rely solely on the theatrical profit of their movies, there'd be no studios left.

Which is the problem Disney has with its content which goes from theaters to D+. There is no “licensing” or sales of physical media to add revenue. So with in house DTC, Disney is basically paying itself to feature its theatrical content on D+. The only way TWDC profits in these situations is either with increased subscribers or increased ad revenue.

Conversely Sony for example licensed the last Spiderman Live action movie to Netflix for streaming rights and made a nice sum of money.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Which is the problem Disney has with its content which goes from theaters to D+. There is no “licensing” or sales of physical media to add revenue. So with in house DTC, Disney is basically paying itself to feature its theatrical content on D+. The only way TWDC profits in these situations is either with increased subscribers or increased ad revenue.

Conversely Sony for example licensed the last Spiderman Live action movie to Netflix for streaming rights and made a nice sum of money.

And if Disney's DTC wasn't in the red currently, but in the black, it would be very very very plain to see that Disney studios films going to D+ are paid for by the subscriptions and ads, and that counts toward its total revenue.

The fact that D+ is currently in the red doesn't magically remove the fact that a portion of D+'s subscription fees and ads isn't being accounted to their theatrical movies moving to D+.

If a hardware store currently in the red still sells hammers. The revenue from those hammer sales are still accrued to hammers.

 

[monothingie]

And if Disney's DTC wasn't in the red currently, but in the black, it would be very very very plain to see that Disney studios films going to D+ are paid for by the subscriptions and ads, and that counts toward its total revenue.

The fact that D+ is currently in the red doesn't magically remove the fact that a portion of D+'s subscription fees and ads isn't being accounted to their theatrical movies moving to D+.

If a hardware store currently in the red still sells hammers. The revenue from those hammer sales are still accrued to hammers.

The major problem is that subscriptions have plateaued and a large chunk are likely non retail subscribers (wholesale accounts made up by people getting bundles from telecom providers that pay a fraction of the retail price)

I’ll get out ahead of it…yes Disney added 7M subscribers last q, but what large cable company whose name ends in pectrum did they make a deal with to bundle D+ with cable packages?

So yes Disney does make money on subscribers, but ARPU should also factor in.

Again using the Sony example, Sony takes a cut on the licensing revenue, but doesn’t have to deal with the black hole of owning its on DTC platform.

 

[fgmnt]

Yeah it's really weird that the thing that came out in October 2020 didn't get a wide theatrical release.

Top Gun 2 came out in 2 years after its covid-related release delay. Don’t be obtuse.

 

[Jambo Dad]

It cost a reported $200M plus another reported $150M for marketing.

It grossed $425M in theaters world wide. Subtract the 50% cut of the box office going to theaters and you have $215M. It lost about $100M+ for Disney.

Correct - that’s the best guess based on standard metrics without further discounts due to Chinese market.

Wish is an open question - the premise isn’t promising. The male lead - singer he king - is considered the bad guy because he grants wishes selectively. The daughter plans to grants wishes for everyone. We will see if they have the cohones or the subtlety to deliver a nuanced perspective.

 

[Trauma]

And if Disney's DTC wasn't in the red currently, but in the black, it would be very very very plain to see that Disney studios films going to D+ are paid for by the subscriptions and ads, and that counts toward its total revenue.

The fact that D+ is currently in the red doesn't magically remove the fact that a portion of D+'s subscription fees and ads isn't being accounted to their theatrical movies moving to D+.

If a hardware store currently in the red still sells hammers. The revenue from those hammer sales are still accrued to hammers.

Yeah but what hardware store sells hammers to itself ?

 

[UNCgolf]

For any AR/VR to work you need massive wide audience adoption of another piece of tech. Basically everyone in your family needs a headset. That's a major hurdle.

I think VR is unlikely to ever have widespread adoption. There are too many downsides, mostly (although not solely) in terms of having to cut yourself off from your surroundings. That's something that a significant number of people can't do for various reasons (children being the biggest but not the only) and a significant number of people simply don't want to to do. This is all assuming we don't eventually get to a holodeck type offering that's very different from current VR, though.

AR is a different story. I wouldn't be surprised to see that as a relatively major part of life in the next couple of decades.

 

[Ayla]

I agree, you can't slam both sequels and original titles and think you'll have any standing.

FWIW, 'Turning Red' is the only movie I wish had never been made. Truly awful. 'Soul'? Good. 'Luca'? Good. 'Raya'? Good. 'Elemental'? Good. Saw both of the latter in the theater, as well.

(After release, I think my daughter was personally responsible for dozens of hours of 'Luca' viewing per month. )

"I mean, what's not to like? Custard, good. Jam, good. Meat, good!"

 

[MisterPenguin]

Yeah but what hardware store sells hammers to itself ?

If they have their own branded tool and die shop... they do.

 

[Dranth]

I assume this is satire.

I could be wrong but I believe it is based on comments from the president of Pixar saying it was going to end in the black during some interviews in the latter part of its theatrical run. Don't know if it ever did but my guess is if so, it barely made it. More likely it crossed over in the second/third pay windows for digital sales/rentals.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The film was a financial disaster theatrically, the rest is spin,

A half billion dollar disaster at the Box Office!~!!

 

[_caleb]

For any AR/VR to work you need massive wide audience adoption of another piece of tech. Basically everyone in your family needs a headset. That's a major hurdle.

I wasn’t talking about AR/VR.

However, one Disney-associated project may have been to send paid content to viewers phones while they were watching a film/series.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I wasn’t talking about AR/VR.

However, one Disney-associated project may have been to send paid content to viewers phones while they were watching a film/series.

Disney has already built tools to do stuff like that, particularly with NextGen at Walt Disney World. They don’t because people hate it on a visceral level.

 

[_caleb]

YouTube operates on a very different model than D+, Apple TV+, Netflix, Hulu, Peacock, Max, P+, etc. Taking Youtube Premium offerings out, the vast majority of YouTube content is user created and revenue is driven by Ad Sales (which have been down for the last several quarters BTW).

This is my point. In order to get to profitability, streamers are changing the model. You keep stating the obvious (the majority of YouTube content is user created), but your conclusions assume the old linear/box office models can’t change. They have to, and they are.

Depending on the analyst you ask, the success or failure of DTC streaming may or may not depend on: the number of subscribers, ARPU, Ad Revenue, development costs, or some or all of the above.

It’s almost as if this were a new paradigm and the business has to find new metrics and sources of revenue.

None of this however has offered a consistent metric for success because all the major players are still loosing money.

It’s a time of transition. Look to the CDs > Napster > iTunes transition in the music industry. Do you think they routinely measured hours streamed from the start?

The one thing that is consistent, is the in terms of new/original content, is that there are way too many shows that cost way to much money to develop on too many streaming platforms with not enough subscribers watching.

In streaming, there’s no such thing as “too much content. There is such a thing as too expensive, and Disney is having to adjust there. But the long tail, perceived subscription value, and fodder for creators means all content has real and potential values over time.

This is why, as others have said, it’s foolish to measure the value of the film by its box office returns. A huge flop at the BO can have lasting value in the streaming ecosystem.

 

[_caleb]

Disney has already built tools to do stuff like that, particularly with NextGen at Walt Disney World. They don’t because people hate it on a visceral level.

Yes, that’s part of what I was alluding to. My point is that they are well down the road in developing and testing these things.

The other application I’m talking about is a companion to streaming that is essentially a paid, 2nd screen fan membership smartphone app that invited fans to post on asynchronous message boards and gave access to behind-the-scenes content while they watched streaming content.

I’m not sure any of these will see the light of day in terms of public rollout. My point is that Disney is exploring new (compared to linear/BO) mechanisms to generate revenue in the streaming business.

 

[monothingie]

This is my point. In order to get to profitability, streamers are changing the model. You keep stating the obvious (the majority of YouTube content is user created), but your conclusions assume the old linear/box office models can’t change. They have to, and they are.

It’s almost as if this were a new paradigm and the business has to find new metrics and sources of revenue.

There are only so many ways you can do this. First it was boosting subscriber counts, which plateaued. Next it was raising prices and adding ad supported tiers to boost ARPU, which only worked to a point. Don't forget about password sharing crackdowns and premium offerings (paywall within a paywall) which is basically at this point scraping the bottom of the barrel.

It’s a time of transition. Look to the CDs > Napster > iTunes transition in the music industry. Do you think they routinely measured hours streamed from the start?

That still doesn't change the fact that the majority of players in DTC are not profitable and likely will never be profitable.

In streaming, there’s no such thing as “too much content. There is such a thing as too expensive, and Disney is having to adjust there. But the long tail, perceived subscription value, and fodder for creators means all content has real and potential values over time.

This is why, as others have said, it’s foolish to measure the value of the film by its box office returns. A huge flop at the BO can have lasting value in the streaming ecosystem.

There absolutely is too much content. To the point it saturates the ecosystem with way too many $200M+ productions that go straight to DTC...(MCU and Star Wars) that bomb in the ratings because their crap.

 

[flynnibus]

Monothingie: new markets are hard… clearly companies should not do it

Such insight…,

 

[_caleb]

There are only so many ways you can do this. First it was boosting subscriber counts, which plateaued. Next it was raising prices and adding ad supported tiers to boost ARPU, which only worked to a point. Don't forget about password sharing crackdowns and premium offerings (paywall within a paywall) which is basically at this point scraping the bottom of the barrel.

That still doesn't change the fact that the majority of players in DTC are not profitable and likely will never be profitable.

The race to develop streaming started at linear/BO. That was a known business to the studios, investors, and the public. But streaming generates a LOT more data than the old model ever did, and has much more potential for deeper integration and interaction with audiences. Some streaming platforms won’t be able to keep up with where streaming is heading. Disney is taking this seriously.

There absolutely is too much content. To the point it saturates the ecosystem with way too many $200M+ productions that go straight to DTC...(MCU and Star Wars) that bomb in the ratings because their crap.

Again, this is linear/BO thinking. Is there “too much content” on YouTube? TikTok? Yes, it doesn’t seem sustainable to crank out $200M productions in this new model.

It’s fine to disagree with how Disney is trying to develop the new model, but saying “there absolutely is too much content” and “there are only so many ways you can do this” don’t seem to acknowledge the magnitude of the paradigm shift.

 

[monothingie]

The race to develop streaming started at linear/BO. That was a known business to the studios, investors, and the public. But streaming generates a LOT more data than the old model ever did, and has much more potential for deeper integration and interaction with audiences. Some streaming platforms won’t be able to keep up with where streaming is heading. Disney is taking this seriously.

Again, this is linear/BO thinking. Is there “too much content” on YouTube? TikTok? Yes, it doesn’t seem sustainable to crank out $200M productions in this new model.

It’s fine to disagree with how Disney is trying to develop the new model, but saying “there absolutely is too much content” and “there are only so many ways you can do this” don’t seem to acknowledge the magnitude of the paradigm shift.

The wonderful thing about streaming is the viewing analytics. You keep on drawing equivalencies audience interaction trends between user generated content and studio created content, but these are apples and oranges comparisons, regardless of how well DTC providers can try to keep up.

There is no way that studio produced content can be a nimble and responsive to wide swaths of audiences as user generated content. This content is is often hyper focused on specific areas of interest. It's a fallacy to think that major DTC can leverage this ability.

You have studios right now producing content that will rarely achieve the level of audience interaction desired. Those that do find themselves ahead of the culture curve, soon often find themselves not being able to keep up and fall behind. (Mandolin S3, Witcher Season 3/4, Loki S2, etc.). Sometimes you have content that rebounds (Picard S3) but that is the exception.

 

[rio]

The race to develop streaming started at linear/BO. That was a known business to the studios, investors, and the public. But streaming generates a LOT more data than the old model ever did, and has much more potential for deeper integration and interaction with audiences. Some streaming platforms won’t be able to keep up with where streaming is heading. Disney is taking this seriously.

We've been in the world of "Big Data" for 13+ years now. I haven't seen how it's made any meaningful difference in company direction, consumer preferences, etc. You don't need a million data points to find out someone is a star wars fan and a star wars fan doesn't always appreciate a movie made from a million summaries from a trillion views unless that movie is being made by AI. Big Data also didn't help lower wait times at Disney World attractions or distribute guests to lower desired Disney World attractions more than Fastpass did.