BrianLo
Well-Known Member
What happens when D+ continues to lose money.? Just cause Bob says it is going to happen doesn't mean it will.
I'm still shocked so many keep defending Iger. I think people need to read the @pheneix thread. Iger has damaged this company.
It’s not defending Iger, I’m just speaking to the math. I read along that thread and I quite like the poster fondly from the past. I appreciate the take. But very quickly he acknowledges he is not a financial guy.
It’s speaking to the converts, those who largely lack the corporate financial literacy to even understand what we are talking about. I’m not trying to be abrasive either, it’s just really not well taught or understood in the general populace. I do think @Trauma has significant fiancial literacy from the Uber pessimistic crowd though. He freely acknowledges he lacks a crystal ball.
I’m generally of the opinion that negative sentiment and pessimism reaches its nadir long after the turnaround. Similar to the time the populace even acknowledges it’s in a recession, it has largely already shifted into a recovery phase.
I think that’s largely where we are with DIS today. Negative sentiment is building to an all time peak, but it’s reactionary to a pandemic and Chapek hangover. Which by all means is also the captains fault who completely abandoned ship at the time.
D+ simply has the math on its side. It is largely the product of costs in and costs out. Subscriber mix * Subscriber fees - Production costs.
Subscriber fees went up across the board last quarter. Productions costs have significantly declined and will overshoot even their desires thanks to delayed amortization from the strikes. Netflix is posting surprisingly large subscriber gains. Iger has figured out how to manage the India problem by spinning off with Reliance.
So what exactly is the barrier to profitability? The train is barreling down the track to it. It all comes down to bets on sizeable subscriber loses. I’m talking like 30% subscriber loses. No one seems willing to commit to that position and yet that’s really the only barrier I can see.
We’ll have our answer pretty clearly on the 7th. If subscribers flee aggressively I certainly will be relooking at that closely. If they remain flat despite the price increase or optimistically if core subscribers increase even marginally in the face of the price hikes, it’s largely a done deal.