JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
They'll just open the vault........
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News The Walt Disney Company Board of Directors Extends Robert A. Iger’s Contract as CEO Through 2026
- Thread starter DCBaker
- Start date
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
What’s left? I mean maybe I’ll renew if they add the Great Locomotive Chase but I’ll be the only one! Haha
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
They think a lot?
_caleb
Well-Known Member
This. Direct-to-Consumer gives Disney total control and all the user behavior data. Data is the real key here. They KNOW what people actually watch (not just what they say they watch), when, where, and on which devices. They know which content are effective gateways to other content.
I read once this neat article about how Netflix used A/B testing to figure out the optimal thumbnail to show different types of users that would make them much more likely to click and to watch.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Wow this thread got spicy…
A lot of good points…but as always a failure to identity patterns fully
The lauding of Disneys performance from 2005-2020 conveniently ignores its 2014-2024 performance has been terrible. We lost a lot of the money we could have gained…
And if you want to laud growth…check it out from 1984 to 1999…splits galore…
But then try to see why it’s relevant now…put the hamster on overdrive
A lot of good points…but as always a failure to identity patterns fully
The lauding of Disneys performance from 2005-2020 conveniently ignores its 2014-2024 performance has been terrible. We lost a lot of the money we could have gained…
And if you want to laud growth…check it out from 1984 to 1999…splits galore…
But then try to see why it’s relevant now…put the hamster on overdrive
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I don’t know if you’re trying to agree on a point…but you have
And the point is this: the only way to make traction in the steaming market is to churn out original content that keeps a fickle audience glued.
Guess who’s not doing that?
Raiders and Peter Pan isn’t gonna flood money as we seem to foolishly believe in this neighborhood
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
It’s gonna require $100 billion in content per year within just a few years for the model to work…
Bob’s all in, right?
_caleb
Well-Known Member
Who says?
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
New content isn't free. I'm sorry but most people aren't going to sign up for D+ for Bluey, Bear in the Big Blue House or for D+ to be their kids babysitter
_caleb
Well-Known Member
Of course new content isn’t free. And I’m not sure how many will subscribe for kids’ content, but how much do you think a season of Bluey costs to produce? Disney has repeatedly made it clear that they’re going to spend much less on content moving forward. And with the data they’re getting from D+, they’re going to be in a very good position to make what people actually watch without overspending.
And they haven’t even begun to roll out additional D+ revenue streams, like shopping and gaming, which have been in the works for a while now.
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
You're average D+ viewer doesn't subscribe for shows like the Imagineering one. It's shows like the Mandalorian that drives subscribers. Those type of shows aren't cheap.
I'm sorry but outside of Netflix I just don't see how any of them will be profitable year after year. Unlike cable, they don't bring in enough subscription revenue to cover the costs of new content.
Growth helped an exec out the door. In 1997 Ovitz severance was $138M, Chapek recently was shown the door with a paltry severance of $23M.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The point is you can be “successful” and still run out of time. Most CEOs do…in fact.
Their worth in the wash is whether they accept when it’s time to move on.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The Netflix model…for one
They only turned the corner to profitability when they poured money into content and way outspent their competitors.
Anyone that thinks that D+ will be paid for with high sub costs and fees without a constant barrage of new, expensive content at all times should buy magic beans from me…
This is what the Bobs “neglected” to tell people in their sun valley speeches.
Cable was a hassle to dump…streams require a swipe. There’s is no way to sugarcoat that.
Dranth
Well-Known Member
Unless I am remembering it wrong, Netflix does it for slightly less than 20. Disney coming in at 25 seems about right for the higher quality they are aiming for.
So, what exactly is going to happen to balloon costs by 4-5 times in the next few years?
Disney v. Netflix spending.
In 2023, Disney spent about $13B more than Netflix.
In 2024, Disney is forecast to spend half a billion less than Netflix.
One might argue that the 2023 spending was a bit much, as seen in the exploding budget of tentpole movies. Don't forget Disney's content spending is for all of it's content: all their movie studies, and all their made-for-TV Disney+, Hulu, ABC, FX, and cable channels.
Netflix is spending just for its streaming service.
However, when you count expenses for sports entertainment, Disney is still way ahead of Netflix.
variety.com
variety.com
In 2023, Disney spent about $13B more than Netflix.
In 2024, Disney is forecast to spend half a billion less than Netflix.
One might argue that the 2023 spending was a bit much, as seen in the exploding budget of tentpole movies. Don't forget Disney's content spending is for all of it's content: all their movie studies, and all their made-for-TV Disney+, Hulu, ABC, FX, and cable channels.
Netflix is spending just for its streaming service.
However, when you count expenses for sports entertainment, Disney is still way ahead of Netflix.
Content Spending 2024 Projections: Top Media & Tech Companies
VIP+ Analysis: Programming costs at the major streamers and studios are poised to rebound — relatively speaking — in 2024.
variety.com
Content Spending 2023: WBD, NBCU Projected to Reduce Expenses
VIP+ Analysis: New data projects that content spending will dip at WBD and NBCU in 2023 as Hollywood moves to cut costs.
variety.com
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
…mostly human tendency….
But I was watching something on Bloomberg a few months ago in the fallout of the actors/writers strikes that was predicting a 20% annual escalation in costs for content - which does include movies…
So you get to the math pretty quickly at that rate
Dranth
Well-Known Member
Wonder how much sensationalism they were going for as that seems farfetched. Increases are baked into the new deals and they are nowhere near 20%. Even if you assume a worst-case scenario for a studio and they need to hire additional staff to meet the new deal requirements, you aren't even closing in on half that number.
There just isn't a realistic situation where costs increase 20% every year. On a particularly bad year, sure, but not every single one which is what would need to happen to get close to 100bn anytime soon.
Yup.
Disney with their super secret algos built into D+ has figured out exactly what people want to watch!!
They have a huge competitive advantage now over Netflix, since this algo will whisper in The Almighty’s ( Bobs ) ear about what shows to make and how to produce it on the cheap!!
I’m loading up on shares now because soon Disney ( or should we call the company Bob since he is the savior ) will rule the world!!!
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