The Spirited 8th Wonder (WDW's Future & You!)

[WDW1974]

I point to things like DisneySea... not contractually obligated to reach that high and far. And as much as Disney won't enforce decorum on it's own guests or park operations.. do you really see them threatening OLC if they slide below some standard agreed to 30+ years ago? All MHO.. but I'd wager OLC's operational track record is based on their own pride and duty.. not fear of Disney legal hawks.

I can tell you that Disney does have a team of folks who go over there regularly and ostensibly make sure the OLC is following their legal responsibilities.

But I also agree that OLC's pride is likely far more of a factor in running those parks to such high standards, standards that Disney will never match anywhere.

 

[scout68]

Are you responsible to pay for your points every year?
Do your points expire?

You're locked in. You just have options - but you don't participate on demand.. you are locked into an agreement for a long term commitment unless you opt to sell the commitment to some other willing buyer.

Perhaps I could have worded this differently.
The majority of the people using the term locked in tend to use it in the negative sense that there is no out. Much like a prisoner is locked in his or her cell. My options equal a certain level of freedom in this situation.(not to mention profitability on the rental front).

I guess the point I was trying to make is a DVC purchase (preferably pre BLT price point) isn't a financial death sentence or a 50 year commitment forcing me to visiting WDW.

 

[WDW1974]

Disney definitely enjoys pushing for them to spend more on design since that is profit for Disney. A lot of it is not just the Oriental Land Company themselves, but Japanese culture in general.

Yeah, but not entirely. TDS cost far more than the project Disney wanted to build: The Disney-MGM Studios-Japan.

So, it's a constant tug of war really (even between factions in TWDC).

 

[WDW1974]

The launch of Journey into Imagination 2.0 to me was the real telling point of the downward trajectory, let alone the gimmicks the prior several years of closing attractions or running them on a "seasonal" basis. The writing was on the wall. Most just didn't see what were pretty damning nuggets back then.

Agree completely.

The opening of DAK combined with the excellent Millennium Celebration at EPCOT absolutely covered up many of the issues that were already rearing their heads well before Y2K.

If you exclude DAK, which I absolutely love. WDW has essentially been in a complete downward spiral since its 25th celebration, which was 18 long years ago ...

(please exclude any typos as I am working while posting, never a good combo!)

 

[WDW1974]

I have an interesting question that I would love @WDW1974 to answer.

Disneyland Resort started its turn around from the same kind of situation (though maybe not as far) as WDW in order to prepare for its 50th Anniversary back in 2005.
Do you think that WDW can or will do the same?

Can? Absolutely.

Will? No idea. It all depends on what the management structure looks like 2-3 years from now.

 

[WDW1974]

Idk the answer to that, but I did notice Poly prices are going for $273 a night for a standard room in September. Never seen prices that low

The Grand Floridan is going for $311 for garden view and $379 for MK views... maybe Disney is catching a hint.

September has the lowest rates of the year traditionally as it has always been the slowest month of the year as school has just started, weather is still wretched and parks close early. There's a reason why Disney wants you to think Halloween starts on Labor Day ... and why the Food and Wine Festival, which used to start in October, now starts earlier every year. They are desperate to fill rooms that time of year before the 'new' (relatively speaking) season of Halloeatinganddrinking kicks in fully around the second week of October.

I still would guess those rooms are discounted and pre-tax. I don't see any 'deals' there myself.

 

[WDW1974]

That's funny I just stayed 2 weeks at the grand and the room would be 4 stars in my book. My room was turned down every night with chocolates and room was as clean as can be. Would be nice to have pillow options without having to come out and ask for it. And everything in the room was working as it should be.

Can I ask (I will anyway) how much you paid just for the room (taxes too) for two weeks?

 

[lazyboy97o]

Yeah, but not entirely. TDS cost far more than the project Disney wanted to build: The Disney-MGM Studios-Japan.

So, it's a constant tug of war really (even between factions in TWDC).

I think part of that was Eisner still trying to turn the concept into a global chain.

 

[WDW1974]

And are those homes in golden oaks actually selling?

That's a whole 'nother topic. Not whether they are selling, but who is actually buying.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I can tell you that Disney does have a team of folks who go over there regularly and ostensibly make sure the OLC is following their legal responsibilities.

But I also agree that OLC's pride is likely far more of a factor in running those parks to such high standards, standards that Disney will never match anywhere.

Comments on how Tokyo Disneyland is more "Disney" than Disneyland and Walt Disney World go all the way back to the mid-1980s.

 

[ABQ]

That's a whole 'nother topic. Not whether they are selling, but who is actually buying.

Not a 3rd party time share operator, I hope.

 

[WDW1974]

So for WDW's first 30 years of operation WDW ran at over 90% occupancy but now 80% is suddenly acceptable?

I'll go further. There were years when WDW was effectively sold out year round in the 70s and 80s. No, they didn't run at 100% occupancy. But the demand exceeded supply and when you factored in rooms being taken out of service for rehabs, Disney had very little availability around the year. BTW, this info was first told to me by the guy who runs WDW today and was GM of the Grand Flo from 1990-1993.

I also know it from so many disappointing times when my folks were going to take the family to WDW and stay at the Contemporary (my dream hotel as a kid) or the Poly (my second option) and when my Mom would call CRO and be offered the Americana Dutch Inn or an off-property option and this was often months out because WDW would often book up two years in advance for busy periods.

Disney, basically, never had an issue filling rooms before the late 90s. Never.

With the exception of SSR, WDW DVC occupancies run at over 95%.

Funny. DVCers just don't want to stay at DVC resorts. Nope they want to stay at WDW Deluxe Resorts at old value/moderate pricing levels. I can't imagine how that could possibly lead to a lesser, Walmarted product for all, can you?

Converting unused hotel rooms to DVC is the correct move for Disney exactly because the number of unoccupied rooms have reached unacceptable levels.

Disney is taking steps to fill empty rooms. They are not sitting on their duff saying to themselves "An 80% occupancy rate is acceptable." Do you think Iger and Rasulo say to Wall Street, "The hotels are full enough"?

When running a business, the status quo is never acceptable. If Disney's executives aren't constantly looking for new ways to improve business, then Disney better be looking for new executives.

Your entire line of reasoning flies in the face of what Disney is doing at the Poly.

This really is the absolute natural evolution/next step of all they have been doing for 15 years plus now.

 

[GoofGoof]

I realize that I am days behind (almost a week) in my own thread (one that has stayed very on-topic!), so we may have moved beyond this. But my feelings are that when Disney moved to the commando style of visiting, with all the trappings of doing everything in advance except for your bathroom breaks -- btw, I have no doubt at all that some crazy Mommies have these penciled into their OCD spreadsheet vacation planning, that the whole 'resort' aspect was willingly shoveled under a desire to have folks on the go from the minute they wake up until the minute they get into bed at night.

WDW wasn't Walmarted by society, it pushed for it as part of a business model.

Sure, you could water ski, but why would you when you have a FP to meet Anna and Elsa? Sure, you could spend a day at the spa, but that might take a day away from the MK, so why would you? Sure, you could rent bikes or boats at FW and explore the wild side of WDW, but wouldn't you rather ride PotC for the 186th time? And with the prices so obscene at WDW now, there is absolutely no incentive to do anything but run around theme parks and eat absurdly priced Disney meals for as long as you can. Disney is wringing every last penny out of you, so you want to wring out every last penny of what you perceive to be vacation value that you can.

Long gone are the days of playing tennis at WDW or horseback riding or wandering around Discovery Island. All left behind for a Walmarted run thru the seven ... oops, six now barely themed lands of the MK and trying to 'get your ride on' as the Aswad would say as many times as possible.

The Vacation Kingdom of the World? I'm sure you can buy repros of merchandise from back in the day when that existed at the Marketplace Co-op and then Tweet the pics to your pals (Scary Steven Miller will help you!) so they can desire the same crap you bought.

Now, DVC guests absolutely can take more time to 'smell the roses' so to speak because of how they pay. And we certainly did so when we stayed at DAK Lodge Villas last year for 12 days. I think we had two days where we didn't leave the resort and a few others where we may have gone to a park for 3-4 hours and that was the day.

But I think most DVC guests are conditioned to also try and get as much 'value' out of being at WDW and that tends to not include lazy walks from the WL to FW, playing with the horsies, renting a boat and then walking back for drinks at the Territory Lounge.

Agreed. A lot of DVC owners are every bit as pixie dusted as the average cash guest. Many bought in to "save money" and are looking to get as much value out of their purchase as possible. One thing I have noticed on my trips at the DVC resorts is people tend to be staying longer. Lots of people staying 10 nights to 2 weeks. If you have a little more time it probably allows you to stop to smell the roses more.

 

[WDW1974]

That's right - the same goes for the cruises. There seem to be presentations being offered every day. You get some nice gifts and free drinks. Besides that DVC members get even more gifts, including a special lanyard with referral cards that you can pass on to people with whom you might chat onboard and tell about your wonderful DVC membership. as well as the so called "member celebrations". I think the only reason for those member gifts is actually to make the non-DVCers aware of how nice it is to be a DVC member. Quite a few of them turn you into a walking DVC comercial - especially the hats they give out! And DVC members proudly wear their lanyards and hats.

I have a DVC cap that Cassandra loves me in! ... I sorta do look like a walking billboard for the product though ... free advertising. Disney would never do that!

 

[WDW1974]

Disney Cruise Line actually has this, it's called the Castaway Club. You automatically become a member of the club if you take a second cruise, and it comes with several benefits, which become larger as you take more cruises. We recently took our 11th cruise, which allowed us perks like gifts left in the stateroom each night, free dinners at the up-charged restaurants, onboard merchandise discounts, and the ability to make excursion reservations extra early — and all we've ever done is go on more cruises. The wonderful treatment caught our attention, since it made us realize how much DCL seems to value their repeat customers, while WDW does little to nothing for them.

All cruise line have loyalty programs. They are akin to FF programs with airlines (no, I wouldn't fly to Hawaii on a 757 unless I was in First Class, but that's just me!) ... Now, hotel companies have had them for years, Marriott Rewards, SPG, HiltonHHonors, etc ... but not Disney ... my hundreds of nights at their resorts is worth about as much as my having an AP for 34 straight years.

Nothing. Absolutely nothing.

 

[WDW1974]

@WDW1974 and @ParentsOf4

How close is DVC to a saturation point? Once it does reach critical mass....then what? I mean you can't easily convert those rooms back to hotel rooms. I would assume there would be contracts DIsney would have to buy out to get the rights back?
Is this truly a ticking time bomb?

Disney doesn't think so, obviously.

There always is a tipping point. They've already reached it with deluxe room at WDW. And they seem to be there at the moderate level too.

 

[GoofGoof]

Another question about DVC for those in the know - how much money is Disney making when someone finances DVC at 15+%? Does an outside company handling these or is handled in house? Anybody have any idea of how many people are financing versus paying outright? I think that needs to figure into what people are actually paying and the actual revenue that Disney is earning. If someone is financing for years at a high interest rate, Disney is probably making bank from that.

The loans are typically 10 years. Here's what I think is correct information, but I'm not 100% sure on all of it.

With any mortgage you have the originator, the servicing company and the owner of the note. When you first get a mortgage all 3 are the same company, but your loan is often sold to someone else. Whoever you make your payments to is the servicing company. The note itself is typically packaged together with similar loans and sold as a mortgage backed security to Fannie Mae or some other financial institution. You make your payment to the servicer, they take their cut off the top and then remit the principal and remaining interest to the note owner. For example if you are paying 5% interest on a 30 year mortgage the servicer may take 1% and remit the remaining 4% to the owner.

With a timeshare loan there is no government entity like Fannie Mae to buy the loans since they wouldn't qualify so they have to be packaged and sold to a bank. I'm pretty sure Disney is still servicing the loans so they make some money off of that, but the bulk of the interest goes to the bank that owns the loans. Back in 2008 Disney sold a large portion of their DVC loans to CitiGroup. I read an article somewhere that Citi owned over $500M in DVC loans at the time. Disney had to guarantee a certain portion of the loans since they are considered higher risk and unsecured. If owners defaulted, Disney would step in and swap out the loans with a new one in order to keep Citi happy and to make sure there wasn't a bank holding a fire sale on defaulted DVC points. When the credit market collapsed Citi cut back on what types of high risk loans they were buying so I'm not sure if the relationship even still exists. They are most likely still selling the loans to some financial institution.

 

[WDW1974]

Again, you speak the truth.

Here is a slightly more optimistic slant to the current DVC expansion. Back in the day TWDC partnered with large corporations to build EPCOT Center. Without the corporate sponsors and foreign nations it would have been a lot more expensive to build and the project may not have been finished. Flash forward to today and many of the same pavilions are in desperate need of some love. Corporations aren't willing to spend as much anymore to be a part of WDW. The company is unwilling to foot the bill alone to fix these pavilions. With DVC instead of corporate sponsors they are enlisting an army of average guests to "foot the bill" for much needed improvements at the resorts. Can anyone really argue that the Poly didn't need a major refurb of the common areas? Disney found a way to partially fund the refurb. If 40% of Poly rooms are being converted to DVC I'm sure at least 40% of the cost of the common area refurbs will be paid for by selling DVC points. The silver lining is that a portion of current and future resort upkeep and maintenance is now covered by DVC owners. In other words they won't cut back on those services since they are no longer "expense" to TWDC. They are definitely losing future revenue from converted rooms but they are also avoiding large expenses as well.

True, but DVC owners only want to pay for maintaining a resort to a point. My SO, 'Angie M.', and I were discussing the WLV redo and how I thought 14 years for the first top to bottom redo was an obscene amount of time. She said she wouldn't want her maintenance fees to go up a dollar or two a point so the resort got a hard goods redo every 5-7 years, which is what I believe they need, especially when running at DVC occupancy levels.

I don't think much funding goes to common area rehabs at all. I do know that every deluxe resort winds up showing much worse wear and tear as soon as DVC becomes part of it. And it never goes back to the way it was before.

 

[WDW1974]

I've only been to WDW 3 times. AKL (2006) was spectacular top to bottom. Great service, great rooms. Pop Century (2010) not quite as great on the room but all other amenities were very good i.e. small but comfortable bed, TV, Food, service. CBR (2014), ugh. Closest I would come to describing as a Holiday Inn. The grounds are nice enough but the rooms were very dated and weren't worth the (even discounted) price we paid. Won't stay there again to be sure. I really expected CBR to be significantly better than POP but no way IMO.

You stayed at DAK Lodge the year before DVC construction began in earnest. It was still a top deluxe resort. I know. I stayed there that year as well, multiple times. ... Pop is fine (or was) for under $80 a night. But just try and get it for that now. I loved quickee trips there for $49, which is really what I feel the place is worth. ... CBR ... has always had issues with rooms and since they are just starting a major redo they always leave the rooms go to hell prior. Why clean filthy carpeting that is being ripped out in two months, right? Why clean walls that are being painted? etc ...

 

[WDW1974]

Valid points.

When considering the local market for Disneyland, I think it's fair to say that "local" means anything within a 90 minute freeway drive of Disneyland. And that definitely includes San Diego. I can make it from Anaheim to downtown San Diego in about 80 minutes going with the flow of traffic. I've made it from Disneyland to Palm Springs in the same amount of time.

Including the San Diego metro area in the Disneyland "local" market, you get about 22 Million people living within a 90 minute freeway drive of Disneyland. Plus the 14 Million international tourists who visit SoCal annually, and the tens of millions of domestic tourists who visit annually from other American states.

And there are only 3,000 Disney owned hotel rooms at the Disneyland Resort, in three hotels. And just 50 DVC units (48 two-bedroom villas, 2 grand villas), only found in the new wing of the Grand Californian Hotel. Not sure what that means, but I'm sure it means something.

Just an FYI, but George Kalogridis told me that for the purposes of defining a 'local' at DLR the metrics are an area roughly from Santa Barbara to the Mexican border eastward to the Coachella Valley. That is an insanely large and populous region.

WDW's local definition is basically the I-4 corridor of Central Florida across the state, edging slightly north and south. So an APer who lives in Stuart (Martin County about a two-hour and change drive up) is in no way considered a local nor are folks who live in Jacksonville or West Palm Beach or Miami and visit frequently.