The Miscellaneous Thought Thread

[Californian Elitist]

The next US Drought Monitor report gets released at 6:30am my time on Thursday, just about 9 hours from now.

Just for my records here in my den The TP2000 Climate Command Center, what government agency or climatology center are you using to determine when the drought has ended in California?

Why are you asking? Experts don’t matter (despite you posting data from…experts), remember?

 

[Californian Elitist]

It's almost over. Doesn't mean it can't come back. I've never seen this much ranch in my life living out here.

It is pretty much guaranteed that another drought will come. We have had recurring droughts for hundreds of years, and likely thousands.

 

[TP2000]

I just caught this.

No, the experts told us four months ago that this winter would be drier and warmer than normal for Disneyland and California.

They didn’t, but k.

So, wait, are you know claiming that the official Winter 2022-23 Weather Outlook released by NOAA that I included here above was fraudulently created by me? That the "experts" actually said it would be a very cold and very wet winter, but I went back and edited all their official data and predictions to say the opposite?

When confronted with real and factual data that NOAA released last October 20th predicting this current winter, predictions that turned out to be incredibly inaccurate, you now think I made that all up? Or is there some other weather/climatology organization besides the US Federal Government that you use instead to predict winter weather trends?

Because the "experts" could not have been more wrong about this winter when they issued their forecasts four months ago.

 

[CaptinEO]

It is pretty much guaranteed that another drought will come. We have had recurring droughts for hundreds of years, and likely thousands.

Yes.

 

[TP2000]

Why are you asking? Experts don’t matter (despite you posting data from…experts), remember?

No, that's not what I said. Modern technology can now give us instant and real time data that was unheard of just 20 years ago. From my home in Utah I can see that it's currently raining in Anaheim and they've received 1.27 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. And I can pinpoint various weather stations throughout the city of Anaheim. Satellite data can also tell me how much rain has fallen on the Western US since November, and can even pinpoint down to several acres the soil moisture level down to a level of 39 inches below ground.

But what "experts" sitting in office cubicles can not yet do is predict the weather more than 7 days in advance.

So they certainly can not predict what the weather trends, much less broader climate trends, will be like for large swaths of an entire continent 3 to 4 months in advance. You can still call them "experts" if you like, but the tools and technology they have to use in 2023 simply can not tell them in October what the winter will be like for California in January.

Only in March can they use the truly impressive computing and satellite technology to look back on 120 days of data to announce that it was really cold and wet this past winter.

The winter of 2022-23 is scientific proof that they can't predict the future more than 7 days out. It's probably hard for them to admit, but it's the truth. And the data and up-to-the-minute statistical information backs that up. I would put just as much stock into the Farmer's Almanac as I would into an "expert" prediction like this from a few months ago...

 

[TP2000]

It is pretty much guaranteed that another drought will come. We have had recurring droughts for hundreds of years, and likely thousands.

Yes, droughts will always happen in California. At least for as long as we know. And certainly for as long as Disneyland is around.

Droughts have been happening in California for at least the past 8,000 years, when the last Ice Age ended and the planet began warming again and humans came over from Asia via the Bering Strait and worked their way down into the Americas via the coastal Kelp Highway along what is now BC, Washington and Oregon. Those humans became the Salish speaking tribes of today, and then spread east and south.

It's likely droughts existed in California 30,000 years ago, prior to the Ice Age and human arrival, but when the basic geologic setup of California still existed. A steep coastal mountain range running parallel to the massive Pacific Ocean that was subject to wild swings in temps and winds (La Nina vs. El Nino vs. Neutral)

 

[Californian Elitist]

No, that's not what I said. Modern technology can now give us instant and real time data that was unheard of just 20 years ago. From my home in Utah I can see that it's currently raining in Anaheim and they've received 1.27 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. And I can pinpoint various weather stations throughout the city of Anaheim. Satellite data can also tell me how much rain has fallen on the Western US since November, and can even pinpoint down to several acres the soil moisture level down to a level of 39 inches below ground.

But what "experts" sitting in office cubicles can not yet do is predict the weather more than 7 days in advance.

So they certainly can not predict what the weather trends, much less broader climate trends, will be like for large swaths of an entire continent 3 to 4 months in advance. You can still call them "experts" if you like, but the tools and technology they have to use in 2023 simply can not tell them in October what the winter will be like for California.

Only in March can they use the truly impressive computing and satellite technology to look back on 120 days of data to announce that it was really cold and wet this past winter.

The winter of 2022-23 is scientific proof that they can't predict the future more than 7 days out. It's probably hard for them to admit, but it's the truth. And the data and up-to-the-minute statistical information backs that up. I would put just as much stock into the Farmer's Almanac as I would into an "expert" prediction like this from a few months ago...

View attachment 705547

But you can predict stuff?

 

[TP2000]

But you can predict stuff?

I'm not predicting anything. I am simply repeating the hard data and statistics that have already been recorded.

This is stuff that will be released at pre-determined dates over the next two weeks. Specifically, March 23rd and 30th and then April 3rd. The April 3rd media event might even have the Governor in attendance. That's when you'll get your local TV station to do a live remote or broadcast the packaged video of the media event staged by the government authorities. It's at that point, when it shows up on the 5 o'clock news from a chirpy TV host or hostess, that the drought will be over for most people who depend on TV news to tell them about the world.

But looking at the hard data and statistics collected through March 21st, 2023, it's already plainly and scientifically obvious that the drought in California is over.

 

[Californian Elitist]

I'm not predicting anything. I am simply repeating the hard data and statistics that have already been recorded.

This is stuff that will be released at pre-determined dates over the next two weeks. Specifically, March 23rd and 30th and then April 3rd. The April 3rd media event might even have the Governor in attendance. That's when you'll get your local TV station to do a live remote or broadcast the packaged video of the media event staged by the government authorities. It's at that point, when it shows up on the 5 o'clock news from a chirpy TV host or hostess, that the drought will be over for most people who depend on TV news to tell them about the world.

But looking at the hard data and statistics collected through March 21st, 2023, it's already plainly and scientifically obvious that the drought in California is over.

Those are predictions. You’re not an expert, yet you’re making predictions.

 

[TP2000]

Those are predictions. You’re not an expert, yet you’re making predictions.

Lol goodnight.

No, those aren't predictions. That is just the hard data collected through March 21st 2023, all of which I've linked to above from the relevant government agencies. I've made no predictions about future weather or climate here.

There are three key dates in the next two weeks where hard data will be released publicly, and much of that data has already been collected and can be viewed via the links I provided above. Or, you can wait for your local TV news station to tell you about the media release regarding that data on March 23rd, March 30th, and April 3rd.

The first official data dump arrives in 7 hours!.... The next update to the US Drought Monitor! I can't wait!

As a reminder, here's where California stood as of last Thursday, March 14th versus the start of the Water Year in California on October 1st.

 

[TP2000]

The TP2000 Climate Command Center has been activated!

The US Drought Monitor map was just updated, and as one could already see from the rainfall through March 21st, all of Orange County, LA County and most of San Diego County has now been removed from drought!

As of March 21st, approximately 64% of California is now drought free! Most importantly, Disneyland and OC is no longer in any level of drought for the first time since 2020!

Current status on left, compared to start of current Water Year on right.

The change for the Central Valley (AKA Breadbasket of America) is stunning! A huge chunk of land roughly the size of Indiana went from Exceptional Drought to absolutely no drought in just a few months time. Mother Nature doesn't mess around.

Current Map | U.S. Drought Monitor

droughtmonitor.unl.edu

 

[Consumer]

To switch to a more fun topic, one of my students wanted to listen to Michael Jackson in class since we finished notes early so I took it as an opportunity to show the class Captain EO. Naturally, they hated it, but it was definitely funny to see high schoolers react to this movie that was made to get teens into Disneyland back in the 1980's.

 

[truecoat]

To switch to a more fun topic, one of my students wanted to listen to Michael Jackson in class since we finished notes early so I took it as an opportunity to show the class Captain EO. Naturally, they hated it, but it was definitely funny to see high schoolers react to this movie that was made to get teens into Disneyland back in the 1980's.

I remember really wanting to see this when I was younger but it was replaced long before I ever made it to a Disney park. I finally had a chance at Epcot in 2011 and it didn't age well.

 

[Phroobar]

To switch to a more fun topic, one of my students wanted to listen to Michael Jackson in class since we finished notes early so I took it as an opportunity to show the class Captain EO. Naturally, they hated it, but it was definitely funny to see high schoolers react to this movie that was made to get teens into Disneyland back in the 1980's.

Why did they hate it? Did you present it as a music video or an attraction? Do they not like Michael Jackson? I wonder how they would react to Moon Walker or even Thriller.

 

[truecoat]

Why did they hate it? Did you present it as a music video or an attraction? Do they not like Michael Jackson? I wonder how they would react to Moon Walker or even Thriller.

They hated it because it isn't any good. Thriller is good, seeing MJ perform on the Grammys and moonwalk is good. Captain EO was probably good at the time but not anymore.

 

[Consumer]

Why did they hate it? Did you present it as a music video or an attraction? Do they not like Michael Jackson? I wonder how they would react to Moon Walker or even Thriller.

I presented it as a music video. Their general sentiment was that it was just too goofy.

 

[PiratesMansion]

Counterpoint: Captain EO was great in part because it aged horrendously badly.

It was a deliriously happy music video 80stacular spectacle in the middle of 2010s Disneyland that you could always walk into at a moment's notice. I loved it.

At the very least, I imagine almost anyone would agree that it's LEAGUES better than anything that's been in that theater since they got rid of it.

 

[Phroobar]

I presented it as a music video. Their general sentiment was that it was just too goofy.

I can see that. It is definitely a product of the 80s.

 

[CaptinEO]

To switch to a more fun topic, one of my students wanted to listen to Michael Jackson in class since we finished notes early so I took it as an opportunity to show the class Captain EO. Naturally, they hated it, but it was definitely funny to see high schoolers react to this movie that was made to get teens into Disneyland back in the 1980's.

Hated it? Wow.

I think it's meant to be seen in a theater with an audience and special effects. Remember it is designed as a themepark attraction.

At Dollywood I saw a corny 80s 4D video starring Dolly Parton in one of the theaters there and in the context of a themepark it's a fun break and a nice way to rest your feet between attractions.

If I watched the same video outside of a themepark it would just be an overly long Dolly Parton video. That's probably what people thought seeing Captain EO as a standalone video.

 

[Phroobar]

Hated it? Wow.

I think it's meant to be seen in a theater with an audience and special effects. Remember it is designed as a themepark attraction.

At Dollywood I saw a corny 80s 4D video starring Dolly Parton in one of the theaters there and in the context of a themepark it's a fun break and a nice way to rest your feet between attractions.

If I watched the same video outside of a themepark it would just be an overly long Dolly Parton video. That's probably what people thought seeing Captain EO as a standalone video.

Where there any 3D gags involving Dolly's, hmm... talents?