The fallacy of overcrowded parks......

[DDLand]

No I think it's more of why is Disney responsible for how much someone knows or not knows about their vacation? I could be wrong about that, but I read it as, people are mad because they didn't do anything to plan and are mad at Disney because they don't operate like every other place.

I don't know how other Disney parks operate so can't say of the Orlando park is harder

Because, presumably, it’s in Disney’s self interest to make sure people don’t have a crappy vacation. May I be as bold to say, that it’s in Disney’s FINANCIAL interest to make sure guests feel satisfied at the end of their experience. Why? Think, if you will, about commercial fishing. Various species of aquatic life have been zealously over-hunted for decades with factory like efficiency. My native state’s blue crab comes to mind. This made great sense in the short-term. Fishing towns boomed, and employed many people. Everything was great. But alas, the Blue Crab population ended up shrinking, and the economy built on unsustainable exploitation has crumbled leaving great suffering in its wake.

What can Disney learn from crabs and coastal towns? Walt Disney World is a remarkably profitable asset, just like the blue crab. It has enough value to support business for decades to come. But what if WDC overzealously exploited this asset for short term profitability? This could be done by drastically raising prices and cutting costs. Before long, WDW would be more profitable than ever!

How long can Disney keep exploiting WDW and its guests before this great resource begins to stumble? How long before Disney’s “overfishing” leaves WDW in real trouble?

Disney doesn’t understand that by forgoing a few percentage points on their margins, that they’re protecting a business that can last decades. But soaring profitability is more appealing than creating long lasting trust with their guests.

Iger himself has sometimes stopped and been at awe that people like Disneyland so much. He doesn’t understand it, but he knows it can make enormous piles of money! When you don’t understand why people like something, it’s no surprise that you end up destroying it.

Not that Iger is concerned about lines or getting on attractions.
What’s it like to go to a Disney park as Bob Iger’s grandchild?

“It’s different for them, I will admit. They don’t wait in line.”

Real quote I swear!

Disneyâs Bob Iger Talks Streaming, Park Plans, and Learning From Kodak

In 2019, the company will launch a streaming service of its own called Disney+, following the integration of film and television assets picked up in a $71 billion deal with 21st Century Fox.

www.google.com

Besides the tastelessness of that comment, it uncovers a fundamental problem. Bob Iger doesn’t notice any capacity constraints. To Bob, he gets on more than enough attractions. The masses aren’t so lucky...

We also should remember what FastPass+ is. What is FP+? Essentially, FP+ creates a copy of you. When you have a FP, you are “waiting” in line for an attraction even if you aren’t physically there. That means there are two guests wandering around the park when ever you have a FP. This allows you to wait in line for ANOTHER attraction at the same time. This was a supposed selling point, but actually is kind of dumb. Like, “people are complaining about crowds.” “I know, let’s double the amount of people in the park!” Those geniuses!

One other thing I’ll throw into the ring. Suppose you have a kitchen table with 6 spots, and 5 occupied. Then, one additional person sits down. Is this going to be extremely uncomfortable? Of course not. Adding one person to a table designed to handle hold six is fine. But what if you started adding more beyond the six? Even though it’s “just one more person,” each additional person significantly impacts the experience.

If the rides at MK are a drainage system, they’re being backed up and everything is flooding out onto pathways.

Though most of the issues can be summed by @lazyboy97o’s post on the first page. Easily one of my favorite posters.

 

[HongKongFu]

Old people have no problem opting out of things.... kids will grow into them... that means you’re most likely upset about oversize people i wager

I wasn't really thinking about the size of folk when I was talking about accommodations.

I'm saying:
Suppose a place like Mk hosts on average 50k guests per day and out of that 50k there are 10k who don't meet height requirements and say another 5k who aren't healthy enough to ride and further let's say on average another 10k who have no desire to ride but meet the requirements then we are left with(I suck at math so please double check my work) 25k eligible and willing guests.

Disney should be making superheadlining attractions that accommodate 25k per day so in theory, for the most part, all who pay the $125 should be able to ride.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I wasn't really thinking about the size of folk when I was talking about accommodations.

I'm saying:
Suppose a place like Mk hosts on average 50k guests per day and out of that 50k there are 10k who don't meet height requirements and say another 5k who aren't healthy enough to ride and further let's say on average another 10k who have no desire to ride but meet the requirements then we are left with(I suck at math so please double check my work) 25k eligible and willing guests.

Disney should be making superheadlining attractions that accommodate 25k per day so in theory, for the most part, all who pay the $125 should be able to ride.

Design Day is usually greater than Average Day. Capacity is measured by the hour, not the day. Visitation is non-linear. It’s not just 25,000 people per day / 10 hour day.

 

[HongKongFu]

Design Day is usually greater than Average Day. Capacity is measured by the hour, not the day. Visitation is non-linear. It’s not just 25,000 people per day / 10 hour day.

'Design Day'..........I'm not sure what's that means in this context.

Yes indeed the industry customarily measures ride capacity in hrs. But that is merely an arbitrary practice as we can, of course, measure an attraction's throughput using 4 minute, 4 hr or 4 day intervals. But ya you're right; let's stick to hourly throughput.

Again you're most definitely right about nonlinear guest visitation and inconsistent operating hours. BUT Disney indeed can forecast fairly well the irregularities of attendance and factor that when designing attractions.......just design them under the presumption that every day is busy.

 

[Rich Brownn]

I wasn't really thinking about the size of folk when I was talking about accommodations.

I'm saying:
Suppose a place like Mk hosts on average 50k guests per day and out of that 50k there are 10k who don't meet height requirements and say another 5k who aren't healthy enough to ride and further let's say on average another 10k who have no desire to ride but meet the requirements then we are left with(I suck at math so please double check my work) 25k eligible and willing guests.

Disney should be making superheadlining attractions that accommodate 25k per day so in theory, for the most part, all who pay the $125 should be able to ride.

When the parks talk about park capacity (as measured it total ride per hour) its measured as, if every ride had a line of exactly one hour, that would be park capacity. Now, of course, we know lines rarely balance out that way (Obviously more people will wait for Space Mountain than the Hall of Presidents) but that was how Disney set park capacity when I worked there.

 

[HongKongFu]

Good to know, thanks for sharing.


And curious....
..... was "park capacity"(and its definition) an actual official/formal phrase taught and instilled to all park cast during training or was it just so commonly used and part of the everyday lexicon by which you would have heard several times over. In other words did you learn it by Disney via instruction/training or learn it by other CMs who used it casually where you picked up on it?

 

[Dad 2 M & M]

You can search Eddie’s posts and find the exact number. It isn’t important. The point is that no attraction can handle every visitor. This idea that capacity is sufficient because some people have figured out the crowd flows and obsessive planning tricks to keep doing exactly what they already know what they want to do is based only on very narrow personal preference.

Thanks for the direction to Eddie's posts as I found the info/estimate....I'd been off the grid for a while.

 

[Rich Brownn]

Good to know, thanks for sharing.


And curious....
..... was "park capacity"(and its definition) an actual official/formal phrase taught and instilled to all park cast during training or was it just so commonly used and part of the everyday lexicon by which you would have heard several times over. In other words did you learn it by Disney via instruction/training or learn it by other CMs who used it casually where you picked up on it?

It was generally used in the end of the year brochure back in the day when Disney reported attendance (like, when they would add a new attraction it would say something like "And that brings the park capacity up to 77,000 rides per hour" or something like that) for investors. Never heard it used internally at Disney, nor did I ever hear what the actual crowds were (we were just told busy or slow). Ironically, at Universal, decades later, we were always told in-house projections every day at meetings.

 

[Sonconato]

Because, presumably, it’s in Disney’s self interest to make sure people don’t have a crappy vacation. May I be as bold to say, that it’s in Disney’s FINANCIAL interest to make sure guests feel satisfied at the end of their experience. Why? Think, if you will, about commercial fishing. Various species of aquatic life have been zealously over-hunted for decades with factory like efficiency. My native state’s blue crab comes to mind. This made great sense in the short-term. Fishing towns boomed, and employed many people. Everything was great. But alas, the Blue Crab population ended up shrinking, and the economy built on unsustainable exploitation has crumbled leaving great suffering in its wake.

What can Disney learn from crabs and coastal towns? Walt Disney World is a remarkably profitable asset, just like the blue crab. It has enough value to support business for decades to come. But what if WDC overzealously exploited this asset for short term profitability? This could be done by drastically raising prices and cutting costs. Before long, WDW would be more profitable than ever!

How long can Disney keep exploiting WDW and its guests before this great resource begins to stumble? How long before Disney’s “overfishing” leaves WDW in real trouble?

Disney doesn’t understand that by forgoing a few percentage points on their margins, that they’re protecting a business that can last decades. But soaring profitability is more appealing than creating long lasting trust with their guests.

Iger himself has sometimes stopped and been at awe that people like Disneyland so much. He doesn’t understand it, but he knows it can make enormous piles of money! When you don’t understand why people like something, it’s no surprise that you end up destroying it.

Not that Iger is concerned about lines or getting on attractions.
What’s it like to go to a Disney park as Bob Iger’s grandchild?

“It’s different for them, I will admit. They don’t wait in line.”

Real quote I swear!

Disneyâs Bob Iger Talks Streaming, Park Plans, and Learning From Kodak

In 2019, the company will launch a streaming service of its own called Disney+, following the integration of film and television assets picked up in a $71 billion deal with 21st Century Fox.

www.google.com

Besides the tastelessness of that comment, it uncovers a fundamental problem. Bob Iger doesn’t notice any capacity constraints. To Bob, he gets on more than enough attractions. The masses aren’t so lucky...

We also should remember what FastPass+ is. What is FP+? Essentially, FP+ creates a copy of you. When you have a FP, you are “waiting” in line for an attraction even if you aren’t physically there. That means there are two guests wandering around the park when ever you have a FP. This allows you to wait in line for ANOTHER attraction at the same time. This was a supposed selling point, but actually is kind of dumb. Like, “people are complaining about crowds.” “I know, let’s double the amount of people in the park!” Those geniuses!

One other thing I’ll throw into the ring. Suppose you have a kitchen table with 6 spots, and 5 occupied. Then, one additional person sits down. Is this going to be extremely uncomfortable? Of course not. Adding one person to a table designed to handle hold six is fine. But what if you started adding more beyond the six? Even though it’s “just one more person,” each additional person significantly impacts the experience.

If the rides at MK are a drainage system, they’re being backed up and everything is flooding out onto pathways.

Though most of the issues can be summed by @lazyboy97o’s post on the first page. Easily one of my favorite posters.

Very, very well-said. You are really onto something about Iger and his upper management and how they just don't understand the parks. A good example of this is when they cut a lot of entertainment, such as Burudika. Sure, it's good for the bottom line but now there is a hole in the place in which the entertainment was. For the example of Burudika, it is apparent that there is a void in Africa. Ask any cast member in Africa and they will tell you it's a much different place. I'm also willing to bet that the sales at the Dawa Bar have decreased significantly as well. But all they see now is a few coins saved.

 

[Chef Mickey]

I gotta ask when are you there when rides are at 50% capacity?

I have an AP, so pretty much all the time. I'm not saying they do it during Christmas or the entire day, every single day....but it happens on Saturday mornings during summer as one example.

 

[lazyboy97o]

'Design Day'..........I'm not sure what's that means in this context.

Yes indeed the industry customarily measures ride capacity in hrs. But that is merely an arbitrary practice as we can, of course, measure an attraction's throughput using 4 minute, 4 hr or 4 day intervals. But ya you're right; let's stick to hourly throughput.

Again you're most definitely right about nonlinear guest visitation and inconsistent operating hours. BUT Disney indeed can forecast fairly well the irregularities of attendance and factor that when designing attractions.......just design them under the presumption that every day is busy.

The Design Day is a theoretical day that smooths our the variations in demand throughout the year. It is typically a busier day than an average day but not as busy as peak days. But when you start adding in all of those factors you start pushing past the already high need of 2,500 people per hour that your hypothetical started to imply. By your criteria a new E-Ticket being planned for the Magic Kingdom today could easily have to meet something more like 5,000 people per hour, which is beyond the ability of even the best people eaters like Pirates of the Caribbean. The ride systems like large boats and Omnimovers that can really move people are also open to a wider audienc, so that number would have to go even higher to meet the requirements of even more people being able to ride.

Hourly measuring is the standard. Everything from attractions, dining and retail are all designed around the Design Hour (the variations of the Design Day smoothed out into an acceptable hour).

When the parks talk about park capacity (as measured it total ride per hour) its measured as, if every ride had a line of exactly one hour, that would be park capacity. Now, of course, we know lines rarely balance out that way (Obviously more people will wait for Space Mountain than the Hall of Presidents) but that was how Disney set park capacity when I worked there.

Capacity is not measured assuming a one hour wait. It is measured by the theoretical hourly capacity, assuming maximum efficiency and every seat filled, but that does not require a one hour wait. Capacity need is determined by the desired attractions per guest per hour applied as a function to the Design Day, but assuming one hour waits is substandard and results in overcrowding and poor guest experience.

 

[John park hopper]

I have an AP, so pretty much all the time. I'm not saying they do it during Christmas or the entire day, every single day....but it happens on Saturday mornings during summer as one example.

I think I may have misinterpreted what you posted are you saying the rides are only 50% operational or the rides are only filled to 50% capacity with guests/

 

[flynnibus]

I think I may have misinterpreted what you posted are you saying the rides are only 50% operational or the rides are only filled to 50% capacity with guests/

Simply put... running less vehicles... running less load zones... etc

 

[phillip9698]

Because, presumably, it’s in Disney’s self interest to make sure people don’t have a crappy vacation. May I be as bold to say, that it’s in Disney’s FINANCIAL interest to make sure guests feel satisfied at the end of their experience. Why? Think, if you will, about commercial fishing. Various species of aquatic life have been zealously over-hunted for decades with factory like efficiency. My native state’s blue crab comes to mind. This made great sense in the short-term. Fishing towns boomed, and employed many people. Everything was great. But alas, the Blue Crab population ended up shrinking, and the economy built on unsustainable exploitation has crumbled leaving great suffering in its wake.

What can Disney learn from crabs and coastal towns? Walt Disney World is a remarkably profitable asset, just like the blue crab. It has enough value to support business for decades to come. But what if WDC overzealously exploited this asset for short term profitability? This could be done by drastically raising prices and cutting costs. Before long, WDW would be more profitable than ever!

How long can Disney keep exploiting WDW and its guests before this great resource begins to stumble? How long before Disney’s “overfishing” leaves WDW in real trouble?

Disney doesn’t understand that by forgoing a few percentage points on their margins, that they’re protecting a business that can last decades. But soaring profitability is more appealing than creating long lasting trust with their guests.

Iger himself has sometimes stopped and been at awe that people like Disneyland so much. He doesn’t understand it, but he knows it can make enormous piles of money! When you don’t understand why people like something, it’s no surprise that you end up destroying it.

IMO this is already happening.
My family is now in stay away mode anytime Disney tries to sell something as a new experience. We pretty much go exclusively in September and we canceled this year's trip due to Star Wars, expecting monstrous crowds.

 

[Rosanne]

Forgive me some rambling thoughts dear reader....

I have been beating the drum against after hours and before hours and halloween parties and christmas parties and blah blah blah for quite a while now. Disney is working to sell the park multiples times a day, all under the guise of guest demand as it relates to over-crowding. So, it got me thinking....

Are the parks REALLY over crowded? There seems to be an argument that WDW, and more specifically MK was never designed to hold this many guests. But what does that mean exactly? Over the past 20 years, MK attendance has increased by 5 million clicks a year. Does that # include parties? @marni1971 @wdwmagic @lentesta

Let's say it doesn't include party guests, for arguments sake. Because if it does include parties, then the MK attendence growth is a clear and inarguable fallacy. Attendance hasn't grown significantly in this case. They are just getting secondary clicks constantly, so it looks like attendance growth.

So back to the point....

MK 20 years ago averaged 41,000 guests a day. Now it averages 54,000 guests a day. An increase of 13,000. A significant increase to be sure, but nowhere near capacity. So where does the argument come from that the park can't handle this many guests?

It seems to me, that the busiest days have always felt busy. The big difference now is that the average days feel the same as a busy day. Is it the extra guests? or is it Disney's optimized staffing? Next time you are in the MK on what should be a normal day but feels wall to wall look around a bit. You'll see only one side of Space and Thunder operating. You'll see shuttered restaurants, and restaurants with half the registers closed. You'll see garbage in the queues and on the floor, and no custodial staff in site. You might see that the MK closes at 6p for 4 out of 7 days a week, thereby increasing guest count on non-party days. The parks aren't over crowded, they are under-utilized.

I propose that the parks CAN handles today's guest load, Disney simply doesn't care to operate at full capacity. And why should they when people will simply pay double for an after hours party where it feels slightly less crowded.

My answer to overcrowded Magic Kingdom park is to build another one. Why do they keep enlarging the original parks as the population gets larger & even more people are crammed into them? They have the land, why dont they use it? What wrong with building a 5th park? I know it costs a lot of money to build a new park, but in the end - they will be rewarded by even more people going in. So many of my friends have stopped going because of the crowds, long lines & increased rates. Rosanne MacKenzie (an Annual Resident Pass Holder)

 

[xdan0920]

My answer to overcrowded Magic Kingdom park is to build another one. Why do they keep enlarging the original parks as the population gets larger & even more people are crammed into them? They have the land, why dont they use it? What wrong with building a 5th park? I know it costs a lot of money to build a new park, but in the end - they will be rewarded by even more people going in. So many of my friends have stopped going because of the crowds, long lines & increased rates. Rosanne MacKenzie (an Annual Resident Pass Holder)

You have hit on the exact thing I was trying to discuss.
We don’t need a 5th park. We need a fully staffed and fully operational Magic Kingdom. They have the capacity to bring back the normal and slow days. Only the refuse to use it. It’s a conscience choice. Putting efficiency ahead of show.

 

[lazyboy97o]

My answer to overcrowded Magic Kingdom park is to build another one. Why do they keep enlarging the original parks as the population gets larger & even more people are crammed into them? They have the land, why dont they use it? What wrong with building a 5th park? I know it costs a lot of money to build a new park, but in the end - they will be rewarded by even more people going in. So many of my friends have stopped going because of the crowds, long lines & increased rates. Rosanne MacKenzie (an Annual Resident Pass Holder)

They have not been enlarging the parks. That’s the problem. Another under built gate and all of its associated expenses won’t fix the fundamental problems with Disney’s view of theme parks and Walt Disney World.

 

[Cesar R M]

CMs on here have said before its a struggle to get hours because they keep them all to the bare minimum. They also said they send CMs home if the day isn't as busy as they expected.

And I suppose they are unpaid?

 

[Cesar R M]

Again, how is Disney "tricking" any one into going to their parks??

Isnt the whole Disney Parks (particularly WDW) sold as a "do once in a lifetime" a "rite of passage to amusement parks" everywhere?

 

[Dragonkeeper]

My issue is that there constant lines and even sell the fastpass system as a way to hold your place in line. A way to get you into the shops and send money. The big clue is they seem proud that the amount spent per guest is up. They added a third track to Midway mania because it was constantly crowed. Why don't they build the new "lands" with higher compacity rides? Why don't thy increase the compacity of the old rides? If it was rally about people being I the shops tn there would b 15 minute lines all the time. The magic bands are just trackers for data on it's guests. The cost are ridicules.