Looking at who they nominated it seems like they were prepared for Lincoln to take the big prize. Usually not getting a best director nomination is not a good sign that you will win Best Picture. But, all the backlash against them for snubbing Ben Affleck for director and Argo winning every other award out there probably changed their plans.
I would not be surprised if they give it to Lincoln though. It just seems tailor made for Oscar voters.
I wish Zero Dark Thirty had more of a chance to win something, but its award chances seem dead. I liked Silver Linings Playbook and Jennifer Lawrence did a great job, but it just doesn't seem like an award worthy role. I hope Chastain gets a surprise win over her.