TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd

[Tony Perkis]

Star Wars.....

Cool. When is it opening? You seem to have all the answers.

 

[Tony Perkis]

The key point lost on Disney pixie dusters and Universal homers? (we need a name them) is that Disney fans shouldn’t be dancing in the streets an gloating because the momentum is clearly is Universal’s direction. Uni fans shouldn’t completely dismiss the numbers since none of the Orlando parks overtook any of the stateside Disney parks because again they have the momentum.

Disney’s goal at WDW has been to keep their customers on property from wheels down to wheels up. The numbers are proving that strategy to be failing. They are not keeping most of their guests on property for the duration of their trip. The dam has sprung a leak and it started with a trickle but is slowly growing.

People say Potter was Uni’s best punch and they have nothing left. Not true. This trip families spent 1-2 days at Universal, but what about next trip? Do they decide to spend 3-4 days next trip and 1-2 days at Disney and eventually cut out Disney entirely? Kong, Nintendo and more offer enticement to spend that extra time between the same old Disney or the new Universal. Only time will tell, but for the first time in Central Florida people are actually having this conversation and that should scare Disney to death. Uni has now become an essential stop for the majority of folks that visit Orlando.

This is a good day for Universal and a worrisome one of Disney.

Honestly, I think increased attendance numbers at WDW is a bad thing in the long term in this context. Why? They've effectively enticed Iger and WDW execs that adding nothing is a solid strategy for growth.

We, as consumers, lose. I won't be paying for a day at WDW until they add something worthwhile.

 

[wdisney9000]

Are you telling me your daughter was more interested in THIS

than THIS?!?!?!

But Disney is so MAGICal!!!!!!!!!

The Disney commercial is a bit contradictory if you think about it. In the commercial there is a family checking in to their resort. Since they are at a Disney resort they should have received magic bands months ago (which they obviously did because the boy is wearing one). They should have made all their FP+ and dining reservations prior to arrival as the system so proudly advertises that doing so, "enhances" your experience. So how would they not be aware of the things they asked for such as "dinner with a princess" or "more park time"? MM+ has apparently failed this family???

Id love to see the next 60 seconds after the CM began looking in the system. It most likely would have showed her telling the little girl that there were no available reservations at Cindys or any of the other Princess dining experiences. She would probly then tell the boy that the Monorail would only be open for certain times of the day due to maintenance issues. Not sure what the mom expected by asking for "a break by the pool"? The pool is right outside lady, you dont need a reservation, but it was nice segway into Dad asking to be "back in time for fireworks", which again shows that they completely ignored the prompts to use MDE and/or make FP+ reservations in advance. If the CM truly cares, she should just tell them to be up at rope drop each morning as they obviously failed to plan their trip properly and it will be their only hope to avoid waiting in long lines for marquee attractions

 

[Tony Perkis]

Doesn't matter to the bean counters: Revenue is what's important. Revenue is the ONLY thing that is important.

And the Uni deal? That's revenue.

I think the term "opportunity cost" is lost on you. Not all revenue is created equal when opportunities to utilize the same space and retail more effectively could exist.

 

[Bairstow]

It's Universal, what do you think?

Screen-based attractions, expensive merch that interacts with the land, and more screens.

 

[Mike S]

Screen-based attractions, expensive merch that interacts with the land, and more screens.

Lol

 

[AEfx]

I'm not interested in putting Universal anywhere. They offer things Disney can't like Halloween Horror Night. They are a thrill ride junkie's dream.

I just want Disney to start redeveloping again and doing it in a timely fashion. What Universal does doesnt bother me, unless it screws up I-4.

Well, it was late and I was trying to be funny...that explains it all LOL.

My point was though - you don't want Disney to do badly, right? You'd love if they started acting like it was the "80's or 90's" again and pumping out awesome attractions, right?

It seems a lot of folks think that people who are saying the types of things we are about Universal and the great stuff they are doing are "Uni-fans", that we want Universal to "win" and Disney to "fail".

I don't think that's the case, at all - for me, I'm just getting from Universal what Disney used to give, and I'd be just as happy if Disney gave it to me as well.

 

[Tony Perkis]

Well, it was late and I was trying to be funny...that explains it all LOL.

My point was though - you don't want Disney to do badly, right? You'd love if they started acting like it was the "80's or 90's" again and pumping out awesome attractions, right?

It seems a lot of folks think that people who are saying the types of things we are about Universal and the great stuff they are doing are "Uni-fans", that we want Universal to "win" and Disney to "fail".

I don't think that's the case, at all - for me, I'm just getting from Universal what Disney used to give, and I'd be just as happy if Disney gave it to me as well.

Honestly, how could any Disney fan not want the company to suffer a bit of a blow? I mean, a minor, predictive setback would be preferable, but something has to be done to entice WDW to invest heavily and often once again.

 

[danlb_2000]

I was just playing around with the numbers a bit. Hypothetically, if they had build Diagon Alley in IOA and it got the 17% increase instead of Studios, that would have put it in 9th place ahead of DCA and DL Paris. Continuing that scenario one more year, if DHS kept it's 2%, IOA would only need a 12% increase to pass DHS. I know there are a lot of other variables involved, but I though those numbers were interesting.

 

[Captain Chaos]

It's Universal, what do you think?

Screens... nothing but screens!!! But not TSMM cheap...

 

[JediMasterMatt]

I have skimmed the thread all day (had little better to do while stuck in an ER -- I love America and the world's best healthcare system -- if you're simply dumb!) and this post was the most ... meaningful to me.

I don't need all the Disney vs. UNI crap that inevitably comes out. Or the discussions on Nintendo and Pandora ... gee, I'm sounding like some folks who post on my thread yet have no interest in the topic, just the personalites. I do have interest in this one, though.

And I can only say you nailed it, Tom. But people will largely ignore because people don't go to TDL, they go to Dizzy World.

As I'll put on my thread, the numbers are really not so meaningful because they mean different things in different places. TDL absolutely outdraws the MK in terms of people in the park at any given time. MK has, even now, maybe 10-15 days a year when it is legitimately as crowded as TDL is on an AVERAGE day -- ALL day.

Now, I've often said that Disney plays with its numbers and MK will always be No. 1 (at least until the Commies order Disney to make SDL No. 1), but I don't really see how that it is. I know that it has to be related to the way Disney is counting admission clicks in O-Town (where park-hopping is much more prevalent) because as crazy as MK has become it isn't having 55,000 in-park every day of the year at ONE time. It just isn't. Now, over the course of a day? That may be a different story.

But then you're not comparing apples to apples, are you?

It's much like taking DLP's numbers and comparing them to Europa Park. Disney wins almost 2-to-1, but one park isn't open for almost half the year.

Look at the water park numbers. The No. 1 water park is China's Chimelong in Guangzhou, but they are (when last I checked) only open five months a year. Then you have a park like Typhoon Lagoon that's open usually about nine months. Other parks (like many indoor ones) are open year round.

I guess what I am saying is there's a lot of measuring contests going on with different kinds of rulers!

More on the numbers on my thread ... when I finish talking with a VIP in Germany!

I also have given this thread my cursory glance and each year it's pretty much the same conversation going on. Lot's of talk about something that ultimately isn't the most important attribute in the true "war" in Orlando.

Gate attendance is certainly nice and everyone will always look for improvements; but, the real war in Orlando isn't over which gate you are spinning during the day - it's over who you are sleeping with at night. The night indicator is really the ultimate measure of who "won" the day and it's in that aspect the dynamics in Orlando have really changed.

The most valuable commodity for a vacation destination has always been the amount of time a guest has. Everyone starts with "X" and from the moment you depart on your vacation, that commodity is being eaten away at. The competitors in Orlando are all vying for a piece of that most precious time commodity.

Disney long ago realized the real profits were not just getting guests to come to their parks and attractions during the day; but, the untapped potential of gathering the available time from a guest by holding them onsite and staying at a Disney owned resort. If you control the clock, you control the wallet.

When WDW shifted into heavy expansion into adding onsite rooms, the die was cast. The resort went from being a collection of theme parks that also had onsite amenities to a RESORT that also includes theme parks. Keeping those rooms filled is the most paramount objective to sustain the operating model they have created. Unfilled rooms become a liability instead of an asset.

What has been happening in Orlando in recent years is that a new challenger has come forth to stake claim over that most valuable of all resources to fight over - time.

Universal Orlando has certainly been very successful at increasing the amount of time guests have been giving their property. The numbers over the last several years have certainly backed that up. They would indicate that an ever increasing number of guests have been allocating at least 1 to potentially 2 days worth of their time in Orlando to their parks.

Now, what is debatable is where that extra time has come from.

Certainly, the numbers could indicate Sea World is a likely suspect; but, going beyond that - you need to wonder where the rest comes from? Certainly, you could argue that guests that are now increasing Universal's gate couple simply be adding additional days on vacation; but, it would be foolish to think that the majority of Universal's gains have come from people who have just added time to their vacation. The gains in attendance they've been experiencing primarily have to be coming from other competitor's expense.

So, if Universal has made in roads into getting more of the valuable tourists time during the day - what does that mean to the all important night battle?

Well, those numbers would be the most interesting of all to analyze.

If we as theme park fans could see the occupancy rates and somehow know what percentage of guests to each Orlando area attraction were staying where - we might be able to ultimately see and predict the future behavior of the attractions (WDW, Universal, etc.).

As I mentioned previously, WDW's business model requires the resorts to remain profitable and to do so - they must be busy. This is where Universal's gains will truly be measured and not in gate attendance.

If Universal can pull guests away from a WDW resort, then Disney feels the impact most severely. It doesn't matter if the guest even stays a Universal property or not as long as they don't spend a night with the Mouse.

If Universal can pull guests away from a WDW resort, then Disney feels the impact most severely. It doesn't matter if the guest even stays a Universal property or not as long as they don't spend a night with the Mouse for the dynamics in the war for Orlando shift.

Has Universal been successful at getting guests to not spend a sleep over at Disney? Since we don't have the numbers, we can't be for certain, so we need to rely on observation to give us insight.

One could start by asking questions about supply and demand. Has one resort versus another been aggressive at expanding their supply of available rooms in recent times versus the other? Has one resort been aggressive at heavily discounting? Has one resort been aggressive at taking some of the supply out of the available chain?

For me the answer is that it seems that Universal has made significant inroads into carving away not only days; but, stealing nights away from Disney. Universal has been very aggressive about adding more rooms into their supply chain with more resort expansion. Disney, with the exception of getting the dormant AoA facility online, has not been adding capacity. Disney has been busy with extensive room to DVC conversion and also extensive refurbs pulling capacity offline. Disney has also not followed through with their promises of ending deep discounts on rooms.

Why is the battle over the night and not the day so important?

It's because WDW's profitability requires the rooms to be full, which is the best protection they have at keeping the parks full. If the parks continue to be busy; but, the resorts are not - then the model collapses. Empty rooms not only keep potential earnings down, they are a liability and cost money to keep empty. It's only when WDW feels enough a pinch at the resort level that they will be spurned to action. Then the "battle" in the parks can get serious. Until then, TDO feels no need to shift their model - so, expect the status quo.

I don't know what the future holds; but, the forthcoming Volcano may yield the tsunami that is needed to wash the filth of malaise away. If Volcano Bay becomes another night needed to stay away from the Mouse, we may get our wishes granted and WDW may shine brightly again. Until then, it's seven more years of Frozen winter.

 

[Mike S]

I also have given this thread my cursory glance and each year it's pretty much the same conversation going on. Lot's of talk about something that ultimately isn't the most important attribute in the true "war" in Orlando.

Gate attendance is certainly nice and everyone will always look for improvements; but, the real war in Orlando isn't over which gate you are spinning during the day - it's over who you are sleeping with at night. The night indicator is really the ultimate measure of who "won" the day and it's in that aspect the dynamics in Orlando have really changed.

The most valuable commodity for a vacation destination has always been the amount of time a guest has. Everyone starts with "X" and from the moment you depart on your vacation, that commodity is being eaten away at. The competitors in Orlando are all vying for a piece of that most precious time commodity.

Disney long ago realized the real profits were not just getting guests to come to their parks and attractions during the day; but, the untapped potential of gathering the available time from a guest by holding them onsite and staying at a Disney owned resort. If you control the clock, you control the wallet.

When WDW shifted into heavy expansion into adding onsite rooms, the die was cast. The resort went from being a collection of theme parks that also had onsite amenities to a RESORT that also includes theme parks. Keeping those rooms filled is the most paramount objective to sustain the operating model they have created. Unfilled rooms become a liability instead of an asset.

What has been happening in Orlando in recent years is that a new challenger has come forth to stake claim over that most valuable of all resources to fight over - time.

Universal Orlando has certainly been very successful at increasing the amount of time guests have been giving their property. The numbers over the last several years have certainly backed that up. They would indicate that an ever increasing number of guests have been allocating at least 1 to potentially 2 days worth of their time in Orlando to their parks.

Now, what is debatable is where that extra time has come from.

Certainly, the numbers could indicate Sea World is a likely suspect; but, going beyond that - you need to wonder where the rest comes from? Certainly, you could argue that guests that are now increasing Universal's gate couple simply be adding additional days on vacation; but, it would be foolish to think that the majority of Universal's gains have come from people who have just added time to their vacation. The gains in attendance they've been experiencing primarily have to be coming from other competitor's expense.

So, if Universal has made in roads into getting more of the valuable tourists time during the day - what does that mean to the all important night battle?

Well, those numbers would be the most interesting of all to analyze.

If we as theme park fans could see the occupancy rates and somehow know what percentage of guests to each Orlando area attraction were staying where - we might be able to ultimately see and predict the future behavior of the attractions (WDW, Universal, etc.).

As I mentioned previously, WDW's business model requires the resorts to remain profitable and to do so - they must be busy. This is where Universal's gains will truly be measured and not in gate attendance.

If Universal can pull guests away from a WDW resort, then Disney feels the impact most severely. It doesn't matter if the guest even stays a Universal property or not as long as they don't spend a night with the Mouse.

If Universal can pull guests away from a WDW resort, then Disney feels the impact most severely. It doesn't matter if the guest even stays a Universal property or not as long as they don't spend a night with the Mouse for the dynamics in the war for Orlando shift.

Has Universal been successful at getting guests to not spend a sleep over at Disney? Since we don't have the numbers, we can't be for certain, so we need to rely on observation to give us insight.

One could start by asking questions about supply and demand. Has one resort versus another been aggressive at expanding their supply of available rooms in recent times versus the other? Has one resort been aggressive at heavily discounting? Has one resort been aggressive at taking some of the supply out of the available chain?

For me the answer is that it seems that Universal has made significant inroads into carving away not only days; but, stealing nights away from Disney. Universal has been very aggressive about adding more rooms into their supply chain with more resort expansion. Disney, with the exception of getting the dormant AoA facility online, has not been adding capacity. Disney has been busy with extensive room to DVC conversion and also extensive refurbs pulling capacity offline. Disney has also not followed through with their promises of ending deep discounts on rooms.

Why is the battle over the night and not the day so important?

It's because WDW's profitability requires the rooms to be full, which is the best protection they have at keeping the parks full. If the parks continue to be busy; but, the resorts are not - then the model collapses. Empty rooms not only keep potential earnings down, they are a liability and cost money to keep empty. It's only when WDW feels enough a pinch at the resort level that they will be spurned to action. Then the "battle" in the parks can get serious. Until then, TDO feels no need to shift their model - so, expect the status quo.

I don't know what the future holds; but, the forthcoming Volcano may yield the tsunami that is needed to wash the filth of malaise away. If Volcano Bay becomes another night needed to stay away from the Mouse, we may get our wishes granted and WDW may shine brightly again. Until then, it's seven more years of Frozen winter.

I'll tell you one thing, my most recent trip included a night at Cabana Bay. I've gone from only Disney trips, to Disney/Universal trips, to potentially spending nights at Universal. The question now is, how many other people are like me?

 

[PhotoDave219]

I think the term "opportunity cost" is lost on you. Not all revenue is created equal when opportunities to utilize the same space and retail more effectively could exist.

Who's losing an opportunity? Everyone makes money. Disney spends no CapEx on that property, has someone else do the marketing and just sits back and collects the profits.

 

[JediMasterMatt]

I'll tell you one thing, my most recent trip included a night at Cabana Bay. I've gone from only Disney trips, to Disney/Universal trips, to potentially spending nights at Universal. The question now is, how many other people are like me?

Raises hand.

Departing tomorrow for 8 days and nights in the Orlando area.

2 nights booked at the very affordable Portofino and Royal Pacific (where you get 4 days of unlimited Express Pass use and 4 days of early admission). For our group of 3 we are spending about $230/night... thanks very affordable Universal Annual Pass.

We are staying at Disney the other nights were we got a less than 20% discount, access to the DDP, and the very coveted EMH where we can play in the park with up to 30,000 of our other friends thanks to our very expensive Disney Premier Passes.

One feels like we are being appreciated.

One feels like we are being fleeced.

 

[hopemax]

I'll tell you one thing, my most recent trip included a night at Cabana Bay. I've gone from only Disney trips, to Disney/Universal trips, to potentially spending nights at Universal. The question now is, how many other people are like me?

The crazy thing, is I've gone to being willing to give up free accommodations at my Dad's house to paying for nights at Universal! My Dad too.

 

[Lord_Vader]

Actually, according to the rough and dirty numbers I just ran from the reports (not sure who is saying they are bogus, it's the most accurate data we have access to regarding paid admissions):

From 2009 to 2014 the market in Orlando is up 14.35% (rounding the attendance of the 7 Orlando theme parks to the nearest 100K, including Sea World). That means 14.35% more admission tickets were sold in 2014 than in 2009.

From 2009 to 2014, Universal's attendance has grown 62.38%.

From 2009 to 2014, Disney's attendance has grown 8.21%.

It's pretty clear that Universal has taken the lion's share of the increased Orlando market.

This is shark infested waters but I wanted to swim today...

You are choosing to highlight a trajectory starting at a high-point for WDW and a low point for USF, look back a few years further 2003 the numbers show a different long-term picture. According to @donsullivan the market share numbers are as follows:

2003: WDW 67.68% & USF 22.98% Combined 90.66%
2009: WDW 74.86% & USF 16.00% Combined 90.86%
2014: WDW 70.99% % USF 22.62% Combined 93.61%

By simply looking at 2009 vs. 2014 it looks like WDW has slipped significantly but going back to 2003 the % are nearly identical for USF but WDW has increased market share by 3%.

Now to my point, simply pulling numbers out of time can paint whatever picture you wish to convey. USF slipped as a whole bottoming out in 2009 so using that time as a starting point only shows that they had no place to go but up as they had bottomed out while WDW peaked because of USF lack of investment. It is a fact WDW has lost nearly 4% market share since 2009 but has grown market share over 3% since 2003.

Only SWO has dropped consistently since 2003 with WDW and USF both ebbing and flowing in and around their fairly consistent shares with USF sill lagging their 2003 share of 22.98%.

 

[PhotoDave219]

This is shark infested waters but I wanted to swim today...

You are choosing to highlight a trajectory starting at a high-point for WDW and a low point for USF, look back a few years further 2003 the numbers show a different long-term picture. According to @donsullivan the market share numbers are as follows:

2003: WDW 67.68% & USF 22.98% Combined 90.66%
2009: WDW 74.86% & USF 16.00% Combined 90.86%
2014: WDW 70.99% % USF 22.62% Combined 93.61%

By simply looking at 2009 vs. 2014 it looks like WDW has slipped significantly but going back to 2003 the % are nearly identical for USF but WDW has increased market share by 3%.

Now to my point, simply pulling numbers out of time can paint whatever picture you wish to convey. USF slipped as a whole bottoming out in 2009 so using that time as a starting point only shows that they had no place to go but up as they had bottomed out while WDW peaked because of USF lack of investment. It is a fact WDW has lost nearly 4% market share since 2009 but has grown market share over 3% since 2003.

Only SWO has dropped consistently since 2003 with WDW and USF both ebbing and flowing in and around their fairly consistent shares with USF sill lagging their 2003 share of 22.98%.

And I'd put those 3% ebb and Flow within a margin of error. If we were discussing 10-20% over 10 years? Then we're into some real numbers. But Three percent in 10 years? Not much of a change.

 

[PhotoDave219]

The crazy thing, is I've gone to being willing to give up free accommodations at my Dad's house to paying for nights at Universal! My Dad too.

Well that avoids I-4 and you can stumble home drunk from CityWalk with a lady if you want....

 

[seascape]

I also have given this thread my cursory glance and each year it's pretty much the same conversation going on. Lot's of talk about something that ultimately isn't the most important attribute in the true "war" in Orlando.

Gate attendance is certainly nice and everyone will always look for improvements; but, the real war in Orlando isn't over which gate you are spinning during the day - it's over who you are sleeping with at night. The night indicator is really the ultimate measure of who "won" the day and it's in that aspect the dynamics in Orlando have really changed.

The most valuable commodity for a vacation destination has always been the amount of time a guest has. Everyone starts with "X" and from the moment you depart on your vacation, that commodity is being eaten away at. The competitors in Orlando are all vying for a piece of that most precious time commodity.

Disney long ago realized the real profits were not just getting guests to come to their parks and attractions during the day; but, the untapped potential of gathering the available time from a guest by holding them onsite and staying at a Disney owned resort. If you control the clock, you control the wallet.

When WDW shifted into heavy expansion into adding onsite rooms, the die was cast. The resort went from being a collection of theme parks that also had onsite amenities to a RESORT that also includes theme parks. Keeping those rooms filled is the most paramount objective to sustain the operating model they have created. Unfilled rooms become a liability instead of an asset.

What has been happening in Orlando in recent years is that a new challenger has come forth to stake claim over that most valuable of all resources to fight over - time.

Universal Orlando has certainly been very successful at increasing the amount of time guests have been giving their property. The numbers over the last several years have certainly backed that up. They would indicate that an ever increasing number of guests have been allocating at least 1 to potentially 2 days worth of their time in Orlando to their parks.

Now, what is debatable is where that extra time has come from.

Certainly, the numbers could indicate Sea World is a likely suspect; but, going beyond that - you need to wonder where the rest comes from? Certainly, you could argue that guests that are now increasing Universal's gate couple simply be adding additional days on vacation; but, it would be foolish to think that the majority of Universal's gains have come from people who have just added time to their vacation. The gains in attendance they've been experiencing primarily have to be coming from other competitor's expense.

So, if Universal has made in roads into getting more of the valuable tourists time during the day - what does that mean to the all important night battle?

Well, those numbers would be the most interesting of all to analyze.

If we as theme park fans could see the occupancy rates and somehow know what percentage of guests to each Orlando area attraction were staying where - we might be able to ultimately see and predict the future behavior of the attractions (WDW, Universal, etc.).

As I mentioned previously, WDW's business model requires the resorts to remain profitable and to do so - they must be busy. This is where Universal's gains will truly be measured and not in gate attendance.

If Universal can pull guests away from a WDW resort, then Disney feels the impact most severely. It doesn't matter if the guest even stays a Universal property or not as long as they don't spend a night with the Mouse.

If Universal can pull guests away from a WDW resort, then Disney feels the impact most severely. It doesn't matter if the guest even stays a Universal property or not as long as they don't spend a night with the Mouse for the dynamics in the war for Orlando shift.

Has Universal been successful at getting guests to not spend a sleep over at Disney? Since we don't have the numbers, we can't be for certain, so we need to rely on observation to give us insight.

One could start by asking questions about supply and demand. Has one resort versus another been aggressive at expanding their supply of available rooms in recent times versus the other? Has one resort been aggressive at heavily discounting? Has one resort been aggressive at taking some of the supply out of the available chain?

For me the answer is that it seems that Universal has made significant inroads into carving away not only days; but, stealing nights away from Disney. Universal has been very aggressive about adding more rooms into their supply chain with more resort expansion. Disney, with the exception of getting the dormant AoA facility online, has not been adding capacity. Disney has been busy with extensive room to DVC conversion and also extensive refurbs pulling capacity offline. Disney has also not followed through with their promises of ending deep discounts on rooms.

Why is the battle over the night and not the day so important?

It's because WDW's profitability requires the rooms to be full, which is the best protection they have at keeping the parks full. If the parks continue to be busy; but, the resorts are not - then the model collapses. Empty rooms not only keep potential earnings down, they are a liability and cost money to keep empty. It's only when WDW feels enough a pinch at the resort level that they will be spurned to action. Then the "battle" in the parks can get serious. Until then, TDO feels no need to shift their model - so, expect the status quo.

I don't know what the future holds; but, the forthcoming Volcano may yield the tsunami that is needed to wash the filth of malaise away. If Volcano Bay becomes another night needed to stay away from the Mouse, we may get our wishes granted and WDW may shine brightly again. Until then, it's seven more years of Frozen winter.

You are correct that both companies need people to stay in their hotel/timeshare rooms and that is where the real money is made. Disney added tens of thousands of rooms over the years and have basically said they will add more soon as their occupancy rate is now at 90%. Even though there are those here who keep saying Disney has tons of rooms available each night, they neglect the fact that 90% occupancy is just about as full as you can get it. As for the long term future, there is no doubt that Disney will continue to build more hotel/timeshare rooms and will eventually build a 5th gate and probably a 6th gate. Universal will continue to build and will have their 15,000 plus rooms but Disney will have over 50,000 rooms of their own to go with Hotel row, Swan/Dolphin and Flamingo Crossing. There is room for both companies to thrive and prosper and even for SeaWorld and the other small parks. For the time being I only see myself staying and spending time at WDW. I do wish Universal and the other parks the best. A growing economy in best for everyone and so anyone wishing the other company bad is only hurting the company they like. Orlando should be able to continue to grow for years and support total theme park attendance more than double that they currently have.

 

[Lord_Vader]

Ok, but you're still missing the point. Percentages don't mean anything. They change based on the size of what you're comparing. If Universal is 100 people and Disney is 1,000, their growth is 62.38 people while Disney's is 82.1. Still bigger. You see?

The Orlando growth is irrelevant because, again, what numbers are you using to arrive at that percentage? Did all of Orlando's tourists go to a theme park? Was it Disney or Universal? Was it both? Percentages will only give you an idea...to ACTUALLY determine if one's market share is shrinking or growing, you need actual numbers. Until Disney sees a decrease in occupancy, attendance, etc. and Universal sees an increase that matches them (and remember that if Universal brings in the same amount of new guests next year, their percentage will still show up as less than 17%) then you can't assume that they're growing parallel to the overall market.

Basically...percentages aren't that helpful.

Exactly... I chose 2003 because it is the first year with USF having IoA.

Again, taking numbers from @donsullivan (thank you for aggregating them!)

Attendance Comparison:

2003: WDW 37,700,000 USF 12,800,000
2009: WDW 47,513,000 USF 10,157,000
2014: WDW 51,490,000 USF 16,404,000
===================================
NET: WDW 13,790,000 USF 3,604,000

While USF gains have been significant based on their size their net gain of gate clicks has been well below WDW both in real growth numbers and are continuing to lose ground as a result.

It would take sustained double-digit growth for many years to come USF to catch WDW.