TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd

[WondersOfLife]

Just a general question...when was the last time you watched Avatar?

We just rewatched the movie again last month (in our home theater in full 3-D and 5.2 Surround on a 110" screen) and it was GREAT! It left me wanting more of the story. To figure out what would happen next with the Na'vi since they repelled the RDA army. I might not have thought about the movie in 2 or 3 years, but I challenge you to watch the movie again and see if you don't think that with another movie or 2 the franchise could have some staying power.

Sometime between 2012 and 2013. My friends and I got bored, though. Only made it to half of the movie! Again though, I'm biased. Not too many teens (at least, in my area) really cared for the film.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I am confused on one thing. Do people feel it is a good strategy for Disney to be building attractions in their WDW parks as quickly as Universal is? And if you believe this, why? Is it necessary for them to match Universal's pace?

It has nothing to do with what Universal is doing. They are not keeping the parks fresh. Universal is just an example of keeping things fresh.

 

[devoy1701]

I am confused on one thing. Do people feel it is a good strategy for Disney to be building attractions in their WDW parks as quickly as Universal is? And if you believe this, why? Is it necessary for them to match Universal's pace?

It is good strategy for Disney to build things faster than they currently are. They can put up DVCs inside of 12-months....attractions are taking 4-5 years. It's pathetic. They built all of Epcot in 3 years. They built the entire Magic Kingdom in the time it is taking to build Avatarland.

 

[Coaster Lover]

That's the beginning of the slowly evolving pattern of Universal forcing families into the Disney trip and then an Universal and the rest trip instead of a Disney and the rest model.

That's pretty much exactly what we did... in 2010, we did a trip that included both Universal parks, Busch Gardens, Sea World, and Aquatica (no Disney) and in 2015 we did a trip that was just Disney (though we did "sneak" away for a day at Universal. With things like the Orlando Flex Pass making everything outside of Disney so accessible and Disney doing such a good job to keep everyone on their resort (the resort buses, Magic Express, dining plans, etc.) the choice for vacationers is really becoming everything except Disney or only Disney and the "everything except Disney" has a LOT happening in the next two years (especially if your a family with teens)... a hyper coaster (Mako), a family coaster (Cobra's Curse), King Kong, and the Volcano Bay. Disney is still the best option (IMHO) in Orlando, but it's getting easier and easier to get a full weeks vacation with a ton of first class attractions in Central Florida without stepping foot on Disney property.

 

[stretchsje]

I think the worst news in the report is that Cedar Fair, Six Flags, and SeaWorld are all down in attendance year-over-year. That's basically all the budget amusement park chains in the United States, which to me says the market for smaller parks is NOT strong. And that sounds bad for the amusement industry in general for a variety of reasons.

 

[BJones82]

If that's what Potter did for USJ, imagine what Nintendo is going to do for that park. Frozen over there may cause a spike, but Nintendo...well, that should push USJ towards MK levels. Like, I wouldn't even want to be in the Osaka metro area kind of crazy.

Just curious and I don't know so a serious question, can the park even support those numbers?

The fact Disney in Orlando is still wiping the floor with Universal despite allowing 3/4 parks to practically die in age, closings, and lack of refurbishments should actually make the folks at Universal quite scared. Imagine the numbers when Disney decides it needs to do some serious updating.

I agree with this, we all complain because we want Disney to do something but they are still growing without doing it... Universal is throwing everything they can at it and are growing but do you really think a company who honestly knows what they need to do is just to cheep to do it would let someone drastically reduce their market share which in the long run would lose them money? This is chess and Disney seems like they are playing the cool cat letting USF huff and puff and do everything they can still seeing Disney's numbers grow. Once Disney decides to move and it is complete what do you think will happen? We call a 2 million jump at USF big, what jump will happen when Star Wars opens at DHS... There are huge spikes in crowd levels just for 8 days a year when DHS gets Star Wars overlay...

Universal is doing this all because they were scared because they were seeing 5% drops each year in attendance and this is their reaction to build build build... Disney is still growing despite their lack of new attractions or announcements... Don't forget globally Disney had over 134 million visitors (40 at WDW) where Uni had 40(16 at USF/IOA)... This is like a 2 year old racing against a 16 year old... Once Disney moves on Star Wars a 5% increase on 40 is 8 million and I don't think that will be impossible... 8 million is how many people visited USF this year....

 

[Andrew C]

It has nothing to do with what Universal is doing. They are not keeping the parks fresh. Universal is just an example of keeping things fresh.

Oh, I am on board with that. I think keeping the parks fresh is essential.

But people hear compare Universal's pace with Disney's, which is why I asked this question. So around here, it does have something to do with what Universal is doing...for some at least.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I think the worst news in the report is that Cedar Fair, Six Flags, and SeaWorld are all down in attendance year-over-year. That's basically all the budget amusement park chains in the United States, which to me says the market for local parks is NOT strong. And that sounds bad for the amusement industry in general.

The regional parks made out like bandits during the recession. We are just seeing the correction as people move from staycations back to destination travel. The regionals will do fine.

 

[Andrew C]

It is good strategy for Disney to build things faster than they currently are. They can put up DVCs inside of 12-months....attractions are taking 4-5 years. It's pathetic. They built all of Epcot in 3 years. They built the entire Magic Kingdom in the time it is taking to build Avatarland.

You never stated why this would be a good strategy though in this response...

yes, they built MK and Epcot very quickly...but what does that have to do with now? Just because they can or did in the past, doesn't mean it is the best way forward.

On a side note, i do wish things at DHS and AK were progressing faster...

 

[mahnamahna101]

What are you talking about? What does 8.3M blow past? All 3 of those parks have much greater attendance.

Well DHS and DAK if you don't go by the inflated TEA/parkhopper numbers

8.3 million for USF would have been unheard in 2011. People would have laughed hysterically at the idea of both surpassing 8 million.

2015
USF - 9.2 million (less of an increase than 2014, but still substantial)
IOA - 8.2 million (0.2% increase. Reasonable)
HS - 9.9 million (slight decrease since Frozen isn't fresh anymore)
AK - 10.2 million (slight decrease)


2016
USF - 9.5 million (very mild DA blowover)
IOA - 8.9 million (Kong should be enough to drive IOA's attendance by less than 1 million, if SDMT can do the same for MK's much larger audience. Possibly a nighttime show, too. They've been setting up for the last couple years)
HS - 9.7 million (slight decrease when LMA and Indy are both closed. What are the guests doing?)
AK - 10.6 million (slight increase due to RoL and the nighttime safaris)

2017
USF - 10.1 million (Fallon and F&F should be enough for 600,000 more visitors. Especially if Disney increases without new additions on a regular basis)
IOA - 9.5 million (Kong spillover and the first batch of MSHI upgrades)
HS - 9.5 million (slight decrease since none of the re-do should be done this year)
AK - 11.0 million (if Avatar really opens late 2017... I don't see a huge increase)

2018
USF - 11.2 million (Fallon, F&F plus Nintendo... over a million)
IOA - 10.3 million (Avengers E-ticket, possible JP enhancements)
AK - 12.1 million (Avatar boost)
HS - 9.6 million (TSPL could open this year, which will keep attendance relatively flat)

2019
USF - 12.0 million (Nintendo spillover plus MoM?)
IOA - 10.9 million (Avengers spillover, possible TL/LC revamp)
AK - 12.8 million (Avatar spillover)
HS - 9.7 million (slight increase due to TSPL)

In 5 years, both Universal parks should be past 10 million. With Nintendo plus F&F plus Fallon plus MoM on the way, USF should definitely be between 11-12 million by then. IOA will lag behind until LC and TL get refreshed. I'd even say until Seuss gets expanded/enhanced.

1.8 million is definitely close when you consider USF was almost 6 million away from AK and HS just 5 years ago. While AK will be difficult to catch up to because of Pandora and RoL, HS is definitely going to be leap-frogged by at least one Universal Orlando park in the next 5 years if TSPL is the only thing opening before 2021.

 

[BJones82]

In 5 years, both Universal parks should be past 10 million. With Nintendo plus F&F plus Fallon plus MoM on the way, USF should definitely be between 11-12 million by then. IOA will lag behind until LC and TL get refreshed. I'd even say until Seuss gets expanded/enhanced.

1.8 million is definitely close when you consider USF was almost 6 million away from AK and HS just 5 years ago. While AK will be difficult to catch up to because of Pandora and RoL, HS is definitely going to be leap-frogged by at least one Universal Orlando park in the next 5 years if TSPL is the only thing opening before 2021.

A lot of what you are doing is assuming flat development by Disney as others have pointed out when Disney wants to they can move fast they build EPCOT Center in 3 years... So announce Star Wars land by early 2016, opens 2019... Are any of us really qualified to guess that growth lol? Now if they don't open Star Wars and do it well then... You're right but you still will have MK out pacing USF... I also think you may be under anticipating the growth from Avatar... A lot of Disney fans will be visiting for the new huge attraction... 2 million over 2 years might be low considering right now WDW pulls over 40 million...

 

[wogwog]

And the fact that USJ jumped over 3 Disney parks to be the first non-Disney park to crack the Top 5 Worldwide isn't significant?

I don't care who is first or last but comparing different continents does not mean much when Osaka and two local neighbor cities have over 18,000,000 folks and Tokyo with more than that a short bullet train ride away puts the potential visitors over 40,000,000 that do not even have to get on a plane to visit. I would be surprised if Osaka does not continue to have an increase in attendance.

 

[devoy1701]

You never stated why this would be a good strategy though in this response...

yes, they built MK and Epcot very quickly...but what does that have to do with now? Just because they can or did in the past, doesn't mean it is the best way forward.

On a side note, i do wish things at DHS and AK were progressing faster...

Repeat-visit-ability.

And anticipation. Though Anticipation would also come if they had multiple projects going on at the same time. And I'm not talking about parking garages and new sidewalks at the MK. The long timelines they are building to makes it hard to get excited about the anticipation of something new opening. People will forget about it by then. BG, SeaWorld, and Uni all announced new attractions or offerings last week and all of them are opening within 18-months. It's easy to get excited about these because it's within a timeframe that most people are comfortable planning within, and when they keep doing it over and over and over...it keeps the parks current, fresh, and in the forefront of your mind.

 

[maxairmike]

@mahnamahna101 I'm not so sure about the DHS numbers in your extrapolation, but the numbers for the other 3 parks seem pretty good.

 

[BJones82]

Everyone needs to remember a 2% growth of 134 million is much larger than a 2% growth of 40 million (Disney World Wide vs Uni world wide)... Disney wont hit the percentages that UNI will but they will hit bigger numbers (or they can once they start...)

 

[Donald Razorduck]

I think the worst news in the report is that Cedar Fair, Six Flags, and SeaWorld are all down in attendance year-over-year. That's basically all the budget amusement park chains in the United States, which to me says the market for smaller parks is NOT strong. And that sounds bad for the amusement industry in general for a variety of reasons.

Have to watch the second quarter economic results. First quarter was negative, if second quarter is negative, we are basically back in recession. That said, our home park, Silver Dollar City is seeing huge days this year. 15 to 20 thousand for that park is slammed. This weekend will be huge, mid 80's and perfect weather with midnight close on Sat.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

DCA better shore up, because the Potter increase at USO is assuredly continuing this year - it's within feet and inches of DCA. And I don't think there is anything of real note coming to DCA this year, is there?

They are definitely replacing Luigi's flying tires and are rumored to be starting a Marvel coaster (similar to Rock n Rollercoaster). Replacing Luigi's probably won't affect attendance but if the rumors are true a coaster would have a huge impact. They just finished the Condor flats area also. Other than the rumored coaster DCA seems to be in touch up mode to fix up some smaller details.

 

[Donald Razorduck]

Everyone needs to remember a 2% growth of 134 million is much larger than a 2% growth of 40 million (Disney World Wide vs Uni world wide)... Disney wont hit the percentages that UNI will but they will hit bigger numbers (or they can once they start...)

Disney P&R is soon approaching what Walmart has hit, The Law of Big Numbers. They are raking in the money but the overall numbers appear to be stagnating. Your 2% growth is exactly Walmart's and it's stock is down. If Parks and Resorts were a stand alone, folks wouldn't be nearly as impressed as they would be with Universal. They are like the Ikea of the sector right now.

Nothing is so Americana and old school Disney as Riverboat travel and the Euro outfits are invading the Mississippi soon. That market is ripe for someone with a very child friendly model as none of the others much are.

 

[devoy1701]

They are definitely replacing Luigi's flying tires and are rumored to be starting a Marvel coaster (similar to Rock n Rollercoaster). Replacing Luigi's probably won't affect attendance but if the rumors are true a coaster would have a huge impact. They just finished the Condor flats area also. Other than the rumored coaster DCA seems to be in touch up mode to fix up some smaller details.

*w*t*f*?

Why would they remove something from Carsland? Luigi's is great! And they harped pretty loudly about finally being able to realize the flying saucers that didn't work out well in Disneyland.

 

[BJones82]

Your 2% growth is exactly Walmart's and it's stock is down

Saying Walmart's stock is down just because of their two percent growth just isn't true, people are making decisions to move away from Walmart and their name is going through a lot of negativity, this is causing their stock to drop along with low growth, same with McDonalds they're losing their customer base because it is going else where not because they are too big....