TEA- 2010 Theme Park Attendance Figures

[CRO-Magnum]

But there is a big difference between DL and WDW in that...

You really have to hand it to the crowd control teams at Disneyland..

...DL benefits from having a very high percentage of guests who have been to the park within the past year (almost 90% on the average day) vs not having been to the park ever before (less than 10%).

WDW is very much the opposite with just under 30% of guests have been to the park in the past year and just under 20% never having been to the park before.

As a result the DL crowd is much better trained at what to do which has a dramatic impact on the capabilities of crowd control. Another major factor is that 96% of DL visitors speak English or Spanish as a first language whereas at WDW it's 82%. And finally there are cultural norms where almost 90% of DL guests come from SoCal and 5% outside the US whereas 15% of WDW guests come from Central Florida and over 15% from outside the US. (I'm using averages). My numbers are a few years old but they historically don't change all that much. Experience counts!

As we all know it only takes a couple of strategically located groups to really foul up the exiting process.

 

[SeaBase86]

Truthfully this is both good and bad news.

The good news is maybe since TDO sees that all the parks (excluding AK) saw a decline, it'll put some fire under them. However realistically the numbers are not that low that I think we'll see something big happen. . Ok maybe that's bad news.

The Bad News is even with a huge increase for UO it still came
Nowhere close to Disney's numbers, TDO is still gonna feel they are king of Orlando and view Potter still as nothing serious.

So I guess this is both bad news.

 

[Scar Junior]

...these numbers show a disturbing trend away from Disney World and toward Universal. The reality is that on a per ticket basis Universal invests more in their parks than Disney does and it shows in attendance. It's why Universal can charge a premium that is coming more and more under fire at WDW. As park fans we know Disney is investing only a small fraction of its operating profits into improving WDW.

I also believe at least some part is a backlash against Disney's pricing policies of the past several years. Disney cannot justify many of their prices nor increases. For example standard rooms at the Carribbean Beach Resort in peak season were $99 when it opened, but today are $224 which is $50 more expensive than they should be adjusted for inflation. Disney increased its profit margin on the rooms by 25% of the price!

Regarding tickets look at 1989 as a focal point, the year Disney MGM Studios, Typhoon Lagoon, and Pleasure Island opened (the last large scale development WDW has seen). Adult annual passes were $180 which means today, adjusted for inflation, passes would be $332. Instead they are $519! Disney increased their profit margin by 36% of the price!

Adult four day passes were $97 in 1989 equivalent to $179 today. However the 2011 ticket price for the same value (park hopper and no expiration) is $373 - an increase to their profit margin of 52% of the price!

For comparison, using Disney math, a base Toyota Camry from 1989 with a sticker of $11,488 would cost between $26k and $44k. 2011 price for a base Toyota Camry : $18k.

And for those who argue about the above not reflecting the addition of Disney's Animal Kingdom. In the past Disney's annual price increases were very small even with the addition of new parks. For example a 4day pass increased $1 from 1988 to 1989 when Disney MGM Studios opened. I assumed all other costs rise at the rate of inflation which is not true because labor costs, over 60% of Disney's cost structure, have risen at a significantly lower rate. So my analysis is conservative.

Using mickey-mouse math from bean counters at McKinsey and other strategy firms, Disney has driven prices through the roof. It doesn't take a genius to realize that high prices = lower attendance.

This is flawed because you don't take in to account the amount that Disney's costs increase... only inflation.

 

[celluloid]

This is flawed because you don't take in to account the amount that Disney's costs increase... only inflation.

It does not matter when Disney puts less in less back into their parks each year. And before you compile a list. Give me EPCOT's last E ticket attraction. Or any actual new attraction for that matter. It is no shock that their attendance was down.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

Well this is good news, so it must be fake...:lookaroun

I can't figure out what part of this you consider good news (for WDW). Seriously. I'm not being flippant. Nothing about this looks good to me if I'm TDO... Unless you want to factor in that it doesn't seem Potter cost WDW massive numbers. That's the only silver lining I can find here.

 

[CaptainJackNO]

Truthfully this is both good and bad news.

The good news is maybe since TDO sees that all the parks (excluding AK) saw a decline, it'll put some fire under them. However realistically the numbers are not that low that I think we'll see something big happen. . Ok maybe that's bad news.

The Bad News is even with a huge increase for UO it still came
Nowhere close to Disney's numbers, TDO is still gonna feel they are king of Orlando and view Potter still as nothing serious.

So I guess this is both bad news.

You make a good point. Who knows how TDO will look at the decreases. However, I would imagine if I am a management guy at TDO, I would look, seriously, at that 1.5% decline as that amounts to 254,000 fewer people going to the turnstiles at Magic Kingdom, alone. If the average guest spends 70 bucks, counting admission, food, and souvenirs (assuming multi-day passes) that amounts to a decline of 17.8 million dollars. That is a HUGE amount of money not taken in. The remaining numbers have TDO losing, on a 70 dollar spending average (I pulled this number out of the air for number purposes), 11.3 million dollars at EPCOT, 6.7 Million dollars at Hollywood Studios, and gaining 6.9 million dollars at Animal Kingdom. That gives a grand loss, just on attendance based on my arbitrary, meaningless numbers (can you tell I have nothing to do tonight?), of 28.9 Million Dollars over the Four Parks.

If you are TDO and that doesn't worry you, you must have a nice trust fund and plan for early retirement.

 

[Testtrack321]

...these numbers show a disturbing trend away from Disney World and toward Universal. The reality is that on a per ticket basis Universal invests more in their parks than Disney does and it shows in attendance. It's why Universal can charge a premium that is coming more and more under fire at WDW.

Yes that investment in IoA the first decade that was..... Storm Force Acceleration and finishing that monorail ride in Seuss Landing? And that premium experience of credit card dealers and park hopper tickets for the price of a standard ticket (which is my I believe UO's attendance didn't drop like a stone).

What is the fetish here with Disney "failing" and Universal doing some sort of "the game has changed" thing. IoA's attendance is up to what it nearly was in the early years before the plunge, great, lets see what they do now. Why can't Disney and Universal BOTH be doing well, because that's what is happening. And I can only see Universal, Sea World, AND Disney being strong in the future. Vegas has given up on the family market, international travel is hard and "dangerous", and Orlando is cheap, safe, and easy to access.

If you are TDO and that doesn't worry you, you must have a nice trust fund and plan for early retirement.

But what if those 254k visitors are dead weight? What if they are like DL AP'ers, people who clog the parks but dont's pend part of that $70 a person (besides tickets of course)? What you get is better experience for other guests who do spend the money, and are now spending more money on more expensive experiences. I don't think it's any coincidence in the past year we got two new, nice restaurants in Epcot and several high profile and high priced park tours.

 

[TP2000]

...DL benefits from having a very high percentage of guests who have been to the park within the past year (almost 90% on the average day) vs not having been to the park ever before (less than 10%).

WDW is very much the opposite with just under 30% of guests have been to the park in the past year and just under 20% never having been to the park before.

And finally there are cultural norms where almost 90% of DL guests come from SoCal and 5% outside the US whereas 15% of WDW guests come from Central Florida and over 15% from outside the US. (I'm using averages). My numbers are a few years old but they historically don't change all that much. Experience counts!

I'm fascinated to learn where you got the figure that 90% of Disneyland visitors on the average day are not only from Southern California but that they visit the park at least annually, and that only 5% of Disneyland visitors are from outside the USA???

That would seem to indicate that of the 16 Million annual visitors to Disneyland, 14.5 Million of them are just the same exact people coming back year after year with very little turnover or new customers introduced to the product.

Is there a link to this information that Disney has never released publicly? I ask because those figures you just introduced seem dramatically blown out of proportion, at least from my own personal experience interacting with the other people at Disneyland on any given day.

Where'd you get those statistics from exactly? And if those stats are true, why does Anaheim currently have 20,000 hotel rooms?

 

[puntagordabob]

I'm fascinated to learn where you got the figure that 90% of Disneyland visitors on the average day are not only from Southern California but that they visit the park at least annually, and that only 5% of Disneyland visitors are from outside the USA???

That would seem to indicate that of the 16 Million annual visitors to Disneyland, 14.5 Million of them are just the same exact people coming back year after year with very little turnover or new customers introduced to the product.

Is there a link to this information that Disney has never released publicly? I ask because those figures you just introduced seem dramatically blown out of proportion, at least from my own personal experience interacting with the other people at Disneyland on any given day.

Where'd you get those statistics from exactly? And if those stats are true, why does Anaheim currently have 20,000 hotel rooms?

I believe the posters info was true at some point...BUT that it does NOT reflect the current reality (hence 20K in rooms lol).

When we were at DLR in October 2010 we seemed to be knee deep in NON-southern Californians!!! There WERE many Locals there....but not anywhere the overwhelming numbers people seem to cite on here.

DLR is an international destination just like WDW is, both parks have a strong Local fanbase of course.....

 

[WDWFigment]

...these numbers show a disturbing trend away from Disney World and toward Universal. The reality is that on a per ticket basis Universal invests more in their parks than Disney does and it shows in attendance. It's why Universal can charge a premium that is coming more and more under fire at WDW. As park fans we know Disney is investing only a small fraction of its operating profits into improving WDW.

I also believe at least some part is a backlash against Disney's pricing policies of the past several years. Disney cannot justify many of their prices nor increases. For example standard rooms at the Carribbean Beach Resort in peak season were $99 when it opened, but today are $224 which is $50 more expensive than they should be adjusted for inflation. Disney increased its profit margin on the rooms by 25% of the price!

Regarding tickets look at 1989 as a focal point, the year Disney MGM Studios, Typhoon Lagoon, and Pleasure Island opened (the last large scale development WDW has seen). Adult annual passes were $180 which means today, adjusted for inflation, passes would be $332. Instead they are $519! Disney increased their profit margin by 36% of the price!

Adult four day passes were $97 in 1989 equivalent to $179 today. However the 2011 ticket price for the same value (park hopper and no expiration) is $373 - an increase to their profit margin of 52% of the price!

For comparison, using Disney math, a base Toyota Camry from 1989 with a sticker of $11,488 would cost between $26k and $44k. 2011 price for a base Toyota Camry : $18k.

And for those who argue about the above not reflecting the addition of Disney's Animal Kingdom. In the past Disney's annual price increases were very small even with the addition of new parks. For example a 4day pass increased $1 from 1988 to 1989 when Disney MGM Studios opened. I assumed all other costs rise at the rate of inflation which is not true because labor costs, over 60% of Disney's cost structure, have risen at a significantly lower rate. So my analysis is conservative.

Using mickey-mouse math from bean counters at McKinsey and other strategy firms, Disney has driven prices through the roof. It doesn't take a genius to realize that high prices = lower attendance.

Inflation isn't the only thing to take into account. You miss costs, for one, and even more importantly, the possibility that Disney was underpriced in 1989 (or whatever year you want to use as a baseline) for what the market would bear. Similarly, the price the ticket prices the market will bear can change over time, and Disney has adjusted accordingly.

I think you will find very few products that have prices increasing on a straight line with inflation.

...DL benefits from having a very high percentage of guests who have been to the park within the past year (almost 90% on the average day) vs not having been to the park ever before (less than 10%).

WDW is very much the opposite with just under 30% of guests have been to the park in the past year and just under 20% never having been to the park before.

As a result the DL crowd is much better trained at what to do which has a dramatic impact on the capabilities of crowd control. Another major factor is that 96% of DL visitors speak English or Spanish as a first language whereas at WDW it's 82%. And finally there are cultural norms where almost 90% of DL guests come from SoCal and 5% outside the US whereas 15% of WDW guests come from Central Florida and over 15% from outside the US. (I'm using averages). My numbers are a few years old but they historically don't change all that much. Experience counts!

As we all know it only takes a couple of strategically located groups to really foul up the exiting process.

With regard only to the 90% Disneyland locals statistic, I can tell you that this number is off by a wide margin. I'm not going off of my anecdotal experiences, either.

 

[Master Yoda]

Inflation isn't the only thing to take into account. You miss costs, for one, and even more importantly, the possibility that Disney was underpriced in 1989 (or whatever year you want to use as a baseline) for what the market would bear. Similarly, the price the ticket prices the market will bear can change over time, and Disney has adjusted accordingly.

I think you will find very few products that have prices increasing on a straight line with inflation.

Quite true. Inflation is nothing more than a base line to compare if a particular product's price is changing more or less than a statistical norm. Fuel and all petroleum based products, steel, concrete, food, etc have all be increasing in price well about the rate of inflation for the last several years. Some have been increasing at rates 4-5 times that of inflation.

 

[RSoxNo1]

I expect that in 2011 we'll see that IOA will have a new high in attendance. Harry Potter was only open for 6-7 months and the park saw a 30% increase in attendance. I expect at least a 5% increase from that # for calendar year 2011, and that would put it fairly close it it's 6.3 million high water mark from 2004.

 

[TP2000]

I believe the posters info was true at some point...BUT that it does NOT reflect the current reality (hence 20K in rooms lol).

When we were at DLR in October 2010 we seemed to be knee deep in NON-southern Californians!!! There WERE many Locals there....but not anywhere the overwhelming numbers people seem to cite on here.

Yeah, I could see the 90% Locals figure being accurate upon Disneyland's opening in 1955, and maybe holding like that for the first few years through the 1950's, at least during the non-vacation, non-holiday periods of that era.

But since the early 1960's that type of figure just becomes more and more inaccurate with each passing year. I can't think of a time in the last several decades where a figure like that could even be accomplished on one particular day of the week, let alone for an entire year at some point in the past. :lol:

I would still be very interested to learn exactly where CRO-Magnum got those wildly inaccurate figures from.

 

[wdwfan4ver]

Yeah, I could see the 90% Locals figure being accurate upon Disneyland's opening in 1955, and maybe holding like that for the first few years through the 1950's, at least during the non-vacation, non-holiday periods of that era.

But since the early 1960's that type of figure just becomes more and more inaccurate with each passing year. I can't think of a time in the last several decades where a figure like that could even be accomplished on one particular day of the week, let alone for an entire year at some point in the past. :lol:

I would still be very interested to learn exactly where CRO-Magnum got those wildly inaccurate figures from.

I agree based on the fact my dad went to Disneyland as a kid once back in the 1960's despite not being a local. My dad was from the Midwest. I am sure that were many other kids besides my dad during that era attended Disneyland despite not being from California since Walt Disney World didn't exist before 1971.

Now granted today it is more local that a person from the Midwest like I am to visit Disney World, but California has neighboring states and I am sure some people from those states are more likely to go to Disneyland before to Walt Disney World due to the Disney theme park they are the closest to.

 

[TP2000]

Now granted today it is more local that a person from the Midwest like I am to visit Disney World, but California has neighboring states and I am sure some people from those states are more likely to go to Disneyland before to Walt Disney World due to the Disney theme park they are the closest to.

Al Lutz has a fascinating column up today on Miceage, and he lays out specific attendance patterns for Disneyland this month. Some of the busiest days of the year have just happened due to pending summer blockouts for the cheapest SoCal AP levels, and record crowds of AP's descended on Anaheim last week. And even during those huge days, slightly less than half the crowd was made up of AP's.

He also details the average Saturday and what to expect this summer, when less than 25% is made up of AP's and locals, and well over half the crowd at Disneyland is from out of town or overseas. I knew there was a reason for those 20,000 hotel/motel rooms in Anaheim! :lol:

The Al Lutz numbers in his article today speak directly to this topic, and seem to indicate what most of us assumed; Locals make up a healthy chunk of Disneyland's attendance, but they are still far outnumbered by tourists from outside of Southern California or outside of North America.

Read the info from Mr. Lutz over on Miceage, it's quite interesting!

 

[ThreeCircles]

I expect that in 2011 we'll see that IOA will have a new high in attendance. Harry Potter was only open for 6-7 months and the park saw a 30% increase in attendance. I expect at least a 5% increase from that # for calendar year 2011, and that would put it fairly close it it's 6.3 million high water mark from 2004.

And that, indeed, is no "game changer". Certainly good for Comcast but it isn't going to reorder the Orlando theme park hierarchy.

 

[TP2000]

And that, indeed, is no "game changer". Certainly good for Comcast but it isn't going to reorder the Orlando theme park hierarchy.

Quite a valid point there. Thanks for the reminder. :wave:

Potter hasn't restructured the heirarchy of Orlando theme parks, and Disney is still the top dog. But it appears to have made life a little tougher for the other second-tier parks in Central Florida; namely Sea World.

I wonder how Legoland will fare entering in to that increasingly competitive market just three months from now? There's only so many extra vacation days to go around after you've spent time with the Mouse. With a resurgent Universal, and a struggling Sea World, how does Legoland try and pick off an extra day in that tough market being a 45 minute drive down a swampy back highway?

 

[celluloid]

All great points, but something just to think about.

We are in the middle of a damaged economy and All of Universal's parks still managed to be up in attendance.

3 out of Four of WDW's were down.

That is significant regardless.

 

[puntagordabob]

The Al Lutz numbers in his article today speak directly to this topic, and seem to indicate what most of us assumed; Locals make up a healthy chunk of Disneyland's attendance, but they are still far outnumbered by tourists from outside of Southern California or outside of North America. !

Which takes the arguement that at WDW "its ok for TDO to give less to its Guests than DLR cuz DLR is all locals" and tosses it out on its head where it belongs!!!

 

[RSoxNo1]

And that, indeed, is no "game changer". Certainly good for Comcast but it isn't going to reorder the Orlando theme park hierarchy.

Another thing to consider is the percentage of crowds. Here are those #'s going back to 2003:

• 2003: 55,700,000 Central Florida Theme Park Vistiors
  • Disney: 67.68%
  • Universal: 22.98%
  • Sea World 9.34%
• 2004: 59,300,000 Central Florida Theme Park Vistiors
  • Disney: 68.63%
  • Universal: 21.92%
  • Sea World 9.44%
• 2005: 60,260,000 Central Florida Theme Park Vistiors
  • Disney: 71.03%
  • Universal: 19.68%
  • Sea World 9.29%
• 2006: 62,150,000 Central Florida Theme Park Vistiors
  • Disney: 72.58%
  • Universal: 18.18%
  • Sea World 9.24%
• 2007: 64,420,000 Central Florida Theme Park Vistiors
  • Disney: 72.94%
  • Universal: 18.05%
  • Sea World 9.00%
• 2008: 64,602,000 Central Florida Theme Park Vistiors
  • Disney: 72.98%
  • Universal: 17.84%
  • Sea World 9.18%
• 2009: 63,470,000 Central Florida Theme Park Vistiors
  • Disney: 74.86%
  • Universal: 16.00%
  • Sea World 9.14%
• 2010: 64,060,000 Central Florida Theme Park Vistiors
  • Disney: 73.50%
  • Universal: 18.54%
  • Sea World 7.96%