I think Karishma is actually very underrated. It took me a while, but I am realizing how self-aware she is. She knows how she is perceived, and that is a great skill to have. It's what separates Karishma from Dean. She has also been very articulate in Tribal Councils. Another great skill to have. And being the first woman since Kelley Wentworth in Cambodia to play an idol correctly is big. I think she woke up the jurors and tribemates who were sleeping on her. Whether she is able to make it to the end remains to be seen, but if she makes it there with the right people, I could see her winning.The Survivor tradition of goats began back in Season 5 - Thailand. The runner-up to the slimy car salesman winner was a trollish guy named Clay who nobody liked. Didn't help around camp, and people resented him for it. This season's goat is unquestionably the thoroughly unlikable sloth Karishma. She's not fun to watch and barely worth rooting against.
Lauren was impressive in her rundown on who would do what in the challenge. She got a bunch of people to sit it out, too. That was some impressive game play. Between Lauren and Elaine, I'm not sure which one will win, but I think it will be one of the two of them.
I don't think Noura will win, though she's the dark horse. I find her fascinating.
As far as Lauren and Elaine, I wouldn't be shocked if either won, but the thing that gives me pause is how both of them have gone absent for good chunks of the season. The only players who I can't remember having decent-sized gaps are Karishma, Noura, and Janet (maybe Janet in the pre-merge when her tribe was winning). I'm not saying one of them will win, but it's worth mentioning.
I think it's easier right now to list the players who have no chance of winning: Dean and Dan. And I don't see that changing. I feel like Noura has grown as a strategic player, and I have seen such a redemption and character arc with Karishma that I wouldn't count her out, either.