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Survivor S39: Island of the Idols

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
The Survivor tradition of goats began back in Season 5 - Thailand. The runner-up to the slimy car salesman winner was a trollish guy named Clay who nobody liked. Didn't help around camp, and people resented him for it. This season's goat is unquestionably the thoroughly unlikable sloth Karishma. She's not fun to watch and barely worth rooting against.

Lauren was impressive in her rundown on who would do what in the challenge. She got a bunch of people to sit it out, too. That was some impressive game play. Between Lauren and Elaine, I'm not sure which one will win, but I think it will be one of the two of them.

I don't think Noura will win, though she's the dark horse. I find her fascinating.
I think Karishma is actually very underrated. It took me a while, but I am realizing how self-aware she is. She knows how she is perceived, and that is a great skill to have. It's what separates Karishma from Dean. She has also been very articulate in Tribal Councils. Another great skill to have. And being the first woman since Kelley Wentworth in Cambodia to play an idol correctly is big. I think she woke up the jurors and tribemates who were sleeping on her. Whether she is able to make it to the end remains to be seen, but if she makes it there with the right people, I could see her winning.

As far as Lauren and Elaine, I wouldn't be shocked if either won, but the thing that gives me pause is how both of them have gone absent for good chunks of the season. The only players who I can't remember having decent-sized gaps are Karishma, Noura, and Janet (maybe Janet in the pre-merge when her tribe was winning). I'm not saying one of them will win, but it's worth mentioning.

I think it's easier right now to list the players who have no chance of winning: Dean and Dan. And I don't see that changing. I feel like Noura has grown as a strategic player, and I have seen such a redemption and character arc with Karishma that I wouldn't count her out, either.
 

flynnibus

Well-Known Member
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Whether she is able to make it to the end remains to be seen, but if she makes it there with the right people, I could see her winning.
I would never watch the show again if a jury was that lame.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I would never watch the show again if a jury was that lame.
Who would you choose if it was Karishma, Dean, and Dan? I would vote Karishma. I'm not saying she's the top candidate to win, but she can with the right people. As far as goats go, I think she is playing one of the better "goat" games we've seen. She's the only one who is really aware that she is perceived as a goat. But she's actually been calling some shots the past couple weeks. Missy and Elizabeth are gone because of her.
 

GenerationX

Well-Known Member
Karishma has blindedly stumbled into every strategic-looking move she's made. It hasn't been due to her game play. I agree she has at least some self-awareness to know she's this season's goat, which led her to the obvious decision to use the idol, but she is this season's goat. Dean's an idiot and over-values himself greatly, but he'd still beat Karishma. The only way Dean wins is to meet Karishma and Feely Dan in the final.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Karishma has blindedly stumbled into every strategic-looking move she's made. It hasn't been due to her game play. I agree she has at least some self-awareness to know she's this season's goat, which led her to the obvious decision to use the idol, but she is this season's goat. Dean's an idiot and over-values himself greatly, but he'd still beat Karishma. The only way Dean wins is to meet Karishma and Feely Dan in the final.
I just think of a goat as someone who blindly follows what they are told to do, like a Phillip or a Sherri from 26. Karishma the past two weeks has not let that happen. She didn't panic and play her idol incorrectly when she didn't have to last week like many players before her. Instead she got the ball rolling on the Missy vote. Without Karishma's talk with Elaine, Missy would still be there. This week she played her idol and was the one who voted for Janet. If it wasn't for Dan voting for Elizabeth, Karishma would have gotten one of the biggest jury threats out. That's savvy gameplay to me. But the amazing thing about Survivor is that everyone has a different take on the events that happen. It'd be pretty boring if everyone thought the same thing about each player's gameplay. I enjoy reading all the different perspectives, and it's a reason why I listen to multiple different RHAP podcasts. I disagree with some of the takes, but they open my eyes to ways of thinking that didn't even cross my mind. Although in this case, I did view Karishma as a goat up until she found that idol. So the goat take was something that has indeed crossed my mind. :p
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I also want to point out that the Ponderosa videos this season are especially pleasing. With all of the gross and disgusting feelings viewers have had this season... seeing how happy the contestants are and how well they get along outside of the game gives me a good feeling.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Karishma is definitely not a goat in the traditional sense.

She has a crap social game (but has carried through some strong strategic moves). Noura also lacks the social game, but does have a strong challenge game. Both of them have had far more direct impact on the course of the game than Dean who seems to have basically no social, strategic or challenge accomplishments.

Dean's sole event of significance was carrying out Kelli's brilliant move. He'll probably unfairly swing credit for it if he winds up in the finals, but I assume Kelli would call him on it. Noura has at least suctioned immunity from several strong players - now jury members. Karishma is actually a large part of the reason Missy and Elizabeth are on the jury. An incredibly strong duo.

In the grand scheme of things none of them deserve to win of course. But 2 out of 3 of them will make the final seat, no doubt. Dean really just needs one of the two out so he can be the finale goat (which I'm sure he doesn't realize).
 

flynnibus

Well-Known Member
I don't give karishma any credit for great play.

Each time she's been passed over its because of things that happened independent of her
Her idol play? Of course she plays it... she's been painted the target nearly every tribal. Without a clear plan.. she's exposed.
She's not even playing the "im not a threat.. take me as your vote' or "I want to work with you... " and playing that up. She's the poster child of luck by everyone else's play instead of your own.

Dean is getting by just because there are more noisy things going on around him. He's just standing on death row waiting his turn.

Karishma's biggest credit is finding an idol.. and that's past her now.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Karishma is definitely not a goat in the traditional sense.

She has a crap social game (but has carried through some strong strategic moves). Noura also lacks the social game, but does have a strong challenge game. Both of them have had far more direct impact on the course of the game than Dean who seems to have basically no social, strategic or challenge accomplishments.

Dean's sole event of significance was carrying out Kelli's brilliant move. He'll probably unfairly swing credit for it if he winds up in the finals, but I assume Kelli would call him on it. Noura has at least suctioned immunity from several strong players - now jury members. Karishma is actually a large part of the reason Missy and Elizabeth are on the jury. An incredibly strong duo.

In the grand scheme of things none of them deserve to win of course. But 2 out of 3 of them will make the final seat, no doubt. Dean really just needs one of the two out so he can be the finale goat (which I'm sure he doesn't realize).
I agree that her social game is her biggest weakness. I viewed her as a clear goat through most of the season so far, but the past few weeks I have opened my eyes and have seen that she's actually doing things. It's foolish to sleep on her, as she has just taken part in two big votes that have totally flipped the power in this game. She's maneuvering the game without a true ally, which is incredibly hard to do. The general sense from the Survivor world is that she's becoming a player.
 

danheaton

Well-Known Member
It really bugs me to see guys (it's always the guys) talk about others being goats when they're totally out of the loop. Dean is a prime example here. I am enjoying his ridiculous attempts to fool everyone with the fake advantage, but wow is he not a top player. Dean is focusing solely on perceived athletic ability with the people he listed as goats. Not good.

I think Karishma has a chance, and she's getting a very good edit too. That move to play the idol was well done, and I don't think she'll be the next to go because of it. There are a lot of possible contenders - Janet, Lauren, Tommy (I guess), and Elaine all have a shot. Noura has impressed me, but I don't see her being able to sway the jury. But you never know...
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It really bugs me to see guys (it's always the guys) talk about others being goats when they're totally out of the loop. Dean is a prime example here. I am enjoying his ridiculous attempts to fool everyone with the fake advantage, but wow is he not a top player. Dean is focusing solely on perceived athletic ability with the people he listed as goats. Not good.

I think Karishma has a chance, and she's getting a very good edit too. That move to play the idol was well done, and I don't think she'll be the next to go because of it. There are a lot of possible contenders - Janet, Lauren, Tommy (I guess), and Elaine all have a shot. Noura has impressed me, but I don't see her being able to sway the jury. But you never know...
I don't see anybody as having a stellar, stand-out game so far, which is why I believe Karishma has a shot. What happens down the stretch will go a long way to who has a shot at winning. Right now I don't think anybody remaining has enough moves to win. Janet could win based on her personal stance. Lauren you could argue has been the most strategic, but she still hasn't made that much happen outside of the latest episode, and her move was negated because of Karishma. Tommy has been the guy everyone goes to, but has he actually put a vote together that we've seen? Elaine has done some maneuvering, but none of her moves she can claim solely as her own. Noura has made some moves in a low-key way, but her kookiness is not something I think can win at the end. Which is why I think Karishma is still largely in this. She's made as many, if not more, moves in the past couple episodes than most remaining players have the whole game. And I would argue that going forward, her moves will have a bigger impact on the game than the other people's moves. In theory at least.
 

flynnibus

Well-Known Member
Karishma next week? She's toast.. the weak play of the others was why no split vote? They had a huge block.. that says to me they really don't have a strong group and don't trust each other. Expect more breakups and more shifting alignments.

My question is if the group that survives will be coordinated by Lauren... or a rag tag group around Elaine keeps things even. I like Noura's play.. but she's proven too volatile I think to keep something together late in the game. I think alot of it is going to come down to what kind of challenges they have here in the next few rounds.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
This season is so frustrating. Just when you think something great is about to happen, an inexplicable decision ruins it. What was going through Detective Dean's head? He just gave up a spot in a good, 4 person alliance, where he is matched with the perceived "goats" (according to Dean himself), to the exact same spot he was looking to get out of at the start of the episode. Trust Noura or not, she's your only hope to get to the final three. Tommy, Lauren, Janet, and Dan do not look to be breaking up... sorry, Dean. Maybe he just wants to bro it out with Tommy as long as possible. Dean seems like the typical frat boy.

Up until the merge, I liked nearly every person on this cast. As of right now, I see it as Janet or bust. Lauren has been inconsistent. And to be honest, she is as emotional and whiny as Karishma is... only she's in a position of power. Tommy hasn't really made a whole lot of moves. Dean's moves have been terrible for his position. Noura is Noura (though I do love Noura). Elaine has been likable, but I feel like she hasn't been a good game player. And Dan is the last person ever from Survivor I'd want to win... but I think he's getting to the final 3.
 

Outbound

Well-Known Member
  • It felt surprisingly sad to see Karishma go home. It’s going to be strange not having her complaining in an episode
  • It’s a real shame Noura is at the bottom, after finally taking control of her game.
  • Dean is delusional. He claims they’re building a “goat army” but with Karishma home he’s the biggest got out there. He blew his only chance tonight, and likely the rest of the underdogs with him.
  • Spoilers for the Preview: If Tommy goes through with blindsiding Lauren (or vice versa) he would beat out Janet for most likely winner.
  • At this point I could see the “Love Ones” alliance riding it to the end... it seems every grand plan these days becomes replaced with an easy vote. If that happens, Janet would definitely win at fire, and probably win the game.
 

flynnibus

Well-Known Member
It’s a real shame Noura is at the bottom
She gets everything she deserves after that tribal. She decided to dump everything on the table... with zero freaking plan. She could have tried to do a double-agent thing.. but instead just decided to out herself to everyone.. and burn every bridge she had at the same time. She went scorched earth on herself.

Dean is delusional. He claims they’re building a “goat army” but with Karishma home he’s the biggest got out there. He blew his only chance tonight, and likely the rest of the underdogs with him.
I see it as the other way... he tried to make that his moment to flip sides... and bartered with the absolute strongest thing he could.. Tommy's life in the game. He sliced throats in doing so.. but at least he was calculated and tried to time things.

Noura just blew open like pillow ripped apart.
 

flynnibus

Well-Known Member
Karishma next week? She's toast.. the weak play of the others was why no split vote? They had a huge block.. that says to me they really don't have a strong group and don't trust each other. Expect more breakups and more shifting alignments.

My question is if the group that survives will be coordinated by Lauren... or a rag tag group around Elaine keeps things even. I like Noura's play.. but she's proven too volatile I think to keep something together late in the game. I think alot of it is going to come down to what kind of challenges they have here in the next few rounds.
I think my predictions came pretty true... Karishma gone, Noura blowing up, and shifting alignments. :)
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
She gets everything she deserves after that tribal. She decided to dump everything on the table... with zero freaking plan. She could have tried to do a double-agent thing.. but instead just decided to out herself to everyone.. and burn every bridge she had at the same time. She went scorched earth on herself.



I see it as the other way... he tried to make that his moment to flip sides... and bartered with the absolute strongest thing he could.. Tommy's life in the game. He sliced throats in doing so.. but at least he was calculated and tried to time things.

Noura just blew open like pillow ripped apart.
That's just her noura-mal way of doing things (loved that descriptor of her).
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
One thing I didn't mention was I thought it was pretty cool that Jeff and production let Noura's sister come up closer in order to see her perform in a challenge.
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
I still don't know what Noura was thinking or why that vote went the way it did. But hey, the unpredictability of Survivor is a reason I still watch.

Dan squirming with glee at Karishma going home. Ugh, he's gross.

Memo to Survivor players. You do not want to win the loved one reward. It's an emotionally charged event and you do not want to be the one deciding who goes and who doesn't.
 
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