wegotodisney
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Yes! Exactly this.
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Survivor 44 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter PUSH
- Start date
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I think it was pretty clear why the last several people were voted out. It was established that Danny and Franny were both threats. Kane was seen as smart and one of his tribe had to go to break them up further. Brandon was the biggest threat by far from his tribe that had to be broken up. And Matt had too many connections. So for the merge so far, they've done a pretty good job.
As for the people who were also voted for, Heidi is seen as someone who is smart and playing under the radar and may not be trusted and Carson is seen as a superfan strategy threat who is very likeable.
So this season, at least since they merged, they made it clear. Last season was a bit all over the place until the last 6 or 7. But I think that seasons 41 and 42 were pretty clear.
Pre-merge boots have really been the ones in question, but I've learned to watch VERY casually until the merge.
Right now, it's pretty clear that Lauren and Jaime are on the bottom and neither really have a shot to win with the editing of the other 4. And among the other 4, ALL of them have pretty good stories to tell to a jury for a potential win.
As for the people who were also voted for, Heidi is seen as someone who is smart and playing under the radar and may not be trusted and Carson is seen as a superfan strategy threat who is very likeable.
So this season, at least since they merged, they made it clear. Last season was a bit all over the place until the last 6 or 7. But I think that seasons 41 and 42 were pretty clear.
Pre-merge boots have really been the ones in question, but I've learned to watch VERY casually until the merge.
Right now, it's pretty clear that Lauren and Jaime are on the bottom and neither really have a shot to win with the editing of the other 4. And among the other 4, ALL of them have pretty good stories to tell to a jury for a potential win.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
It's a very mixed bag I think in terms of what we know and see about the voting.
We know why Danny and Frannie were voted out as threats, but I have no idea why certain people voted they way they did this week.
Why did Ratu team up with Tika? Did they still consider Carson one of them and worked with him? Are Ratu and Soka just mortal enemies? 2 + 2 = 4 going against Tika seems like an obvious choice? Was this considered? Discussed? We don't know.
What we got was a very straight forward 5-2 vote with enough of a majority to allow vote splitting. I guess that's too boring for the show so they made a meal out of the idol play.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I'm pretty sure that Jaime and Lauren voted for Heidi to split votes in case Carson used an idol. I also think they actually throught Carolyn would vote with them since she and Carson appeared to have that spat.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
On twitter she said they were playing the middle, whatever that looks like.
I can't tell what their plan was/is because it appears to give Tika the most power.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
LOL-the middle. I think that is code for "we have no idea what to do". Carson and Yam played in the middle for a couple of episodes and knew exactly what they doing. Lauren and Jaime's best and really only move is to convince Tika to take out Heidi next. But Heidi's best move would be to pledge herself to Tika. Tika will have come from the bottom and could make it to at least the final 4.
I bet Lauren and Jamie think that Carson will side with them, based off of relationships he made at Ratu. That might not end up being the case, but I can see their thinking. I'm not going to knock them for having that read. There's so much we don't see, and Carson is probably doing a great job of making them comfortable.
I think it's pretty likely that a Tika wins. I can easily see any of those three winning. I think Heidi could win if she's with Lauren and Jamie. But at this point, I'm having a hard time believing it's not a Tika. Heidi wouldn't shock me, but it's not likely. With that being said, the past three winners have come out of nowhere.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Do the members of Tika know that Heidi has an idol? (does she even still have it-I forgot whether she played it) If so, Heidi's best play is to make it so that Tika votes for her at next tribal. Then take out a Tika so that she, Jaime, and Lauren have the majority going into the final 5. I mean they REALLY need to force that issue hard. Even then, if it gets down to the final 4, a Tika could end up winning fire. But that's much less likely than if they screw things up tonight and let Tika take control.
Plus, the editing and storytelling of the season doesn't support Tika getting ousted one by one. The whole season has primarily been about Tika with Danny and Franny as supporting roles (and now gone).
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
Yes, Heidi still has a secret idol. Given that non Tika players seem unwilling to work together, she pretty much has to play her idol this week. If last week's voting bloc holds it will be a split on her. Maybe Tika puts 3 on someone else but that's a huge risk.
Her best bet might be to reveal her idol to Ratu and convince them to vote against Tika, because if they don't, one of them will likely go on a split. However, the fear of knowledge is power could be the thing that stops this from happening.
Tika has so much power and they arguably should have been targeted last week. That's why the idol play was correct, despite not negating a majority of votes. It was defending against what should have been the most logical move from the other four players.
Based on the fact that non-Tika players don't work together, Tika is likely to control the vote this week, barring an actual internal split that they bring to another player as an option.
I would guess that Ratu will put two votes on Heidi and Tika will split one on Heidi and one or two on a Ratu.
If Heidi plays her idol as a surprise, I'm guessing it negates three votes and a Ratu goes home. If the works with Ratu, they could negate one or two Tika votes on Heidi, and Tika loses against a 3-vote majority.
This has been a strong run of episodes, which is great after the horrendous run we had early in the "merge". It just shows that the basic format works, and it works really well. Hopefully Jeff will stop messing with it, but I don't have high hopes based on his podcast.
This was probably a straight-forward vote, without as much wavering as we were led to believe. However, they did a really good job of making it emotional. The musical score as Carolyn was receiving votes was just toying with us. I was feeling all the emotions, thinking it was her as the votes were read.
Heidi would have been better off to play her idol for herself, and vote for Carolyn. Then force someone to flip, or go to rocks. And I don't think Carson goes to rocks. Heidi would be safe from rocks in that scenario, and she could have a chance of getting in the majority with Lauren and Jaime.
Here's my prediction for the rest of the way:
5th place: Lauren
4th place: Carson (loses fire against Heidi)
3rd place: Heidi
1st/2nd: Yam Yam & Carolyn... I honestly have no idea who wins. I lean Yam Yam.
This was probably a straight-forward vote, without as much wavering as we were led to believe. However, they did a really good job of making it emotional. The musical score as Carolyn was receiving votes was just toying with us. I was feeling all the emotions, thinking it was her as the votes were read.
Heidi would have been better off to play her idol for herself, and vote for Carolyn. Then force someone to flip, or go to rocks. And I don't think Carson goes to rocks. Heidi would be safe from rocks in that scenario, and she could have a chance of getting in the majority with Lauren and Jaime.
Here's my prediction for the rest of the way:
5th place: Lauren
4th place: Carson (loses fire against Heidi)
3rd place: Heidi
1st/2nd: Yam Yam & Carolyn... I honestly have no idea who wins. I lean Yam Yam.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I'd say that the only way Carolyn would lose in the finals is if (1) she goes on an emotional tirade/tangent, (2) the jury doesn't think she truly knew what she was doing (which is probably not true). But I think people genuinely like her. But they also seem to like Carson and Yam.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
This felt like the first episode where we saw all of the different options and the logical reasons for each, so we could appreciate the suspense of the vote but also know what's going on.
Carolyn is a TV producer's dream, just handing them statements and expressions that allowed them to add all of that misdirection into TC and have that suspense.
How did Heidi seemingly manage to accomplish nothing here? I guess unknown advantages scares people but she didn't leverage the idol as a move like others have. If she goes to the minority of two, they work with her.
In that case, she could have forced a tie. If that happened, Carson or Yam-Yam flip on the revote. If they don't, it comes down to rocks between Carson and Yam-Yam only.
Obviously they're starving and not making optimal decisions, but it's crazy to see the game handed to Tika.
Carolyn is a TV producer's dream, just handing them statements and expressions that allowed them to add all of that misdirection into TC and have that suspense.
How did Heidi seemingly manage to accomplish nothing here? I guess unknown advantages scares people but she didn't leverage the idol as a move like others have. If she goes to the minority of two, they work with her.
In that case, she could have forced a tie. If that happened, Carson or Yam-Yam flip on the revote. If they don't, it comes down to rocks between Carson and Yam-Yam only.
Obviously they're starving and not making optimal decisions, but it's crazy to see the game handed to Tika.
I think I'm going to have a hard time ranking this season. I feel like it's been a tale of three thirds.
The premerge was average at best, but more likely below average. The episodes around the merge were awful. There was so much production interference, and it honestly ruined the game for those few episodes. But since then we've had normal Survivor again, and it's been top tier.
There haven't been any big time moves yet, either. I don't know if that's really a knock on the season, but it's an observation.
If I'm trying to to have recency bias, it's probably a middle tier season when looking at the entire season as a whole. If it were just the past 3 or 4 episodes, it'd be much higher.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
Yep, the pre and post merge felt almost like different shows.
The show wants those (missing) big moves but seeing a 3-person minority make their way to the end is great Survivor.
As long as we don't get an out of nowhere non-Tika win, the second half of the season should be well regarded.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I like Yam Yam as a winner. However, I really feel bad that Carolyn didn't at least get a couple of votes. I actually feel like she played a better game than Yam Yam. I feel like Carolyn had that "hero's journey" (as did Carson) that we saw in the likes of David (survivor 33) and Aubrey (survivor 32) that just came up short. I think that a few people who voted for Yam Yam may have been torn between he and Carolyn.
Carolyn and Carson will, without a doubt, be asked back at some point, just as Jesse from last season and Mike from the season before.
Carolyn and Carson will, without a doubt, be asked back at some point, just as Jesse from last season and Mike from the season before.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
I really enjoyed this episode.
I don't think most of the decisions were surprising, but the show made it feel suspenseful. Suggesting yet again Tika would turn on each other but didn't. Not making it obvious that Carson had the puzzle win in the 3D printed bag the second we saw the challenge.
I'm surprised Carson lost simmotion. I just assumed he had a timing strategy in his head before he left for Fiji.
I will continue to die on the hill that fire making is too easy. Not to downplay Heidi's skill, but why is such an "important" challenge something that can be won in a few minutes?
Heidi made a good call to go to fire, but to me it's such an easy task and not important relative to the rest of the game that it's just not something that elevated her much at all.
She had to do it the second she vocalized that it could be important. You can't back down from that.
Yam-Yam strikes me as one of the more social based winners we've had in a long time. How does the jury perceive you - they loooove me! Yeah, I'd want to vote for him.
Heidi was terrible at tribal council, starting with the interruption. Beyond that, I thought the questions and answers were solid.
A lot of people are bemoaning the fact that Carolyn placed third, but the juries know what they're doing. They don't want to risk a split vote changing the outcome or Carolyn unexpectedly winning because everyone thought they were giving her a "third place vote". Her game was great and placing third doesn't mean she wasn't better than Heidi necesscarily.
Carolyn also got $100,000 in Sia money.
I don't think most of the decisions were surprising, but the show made it feel suspenseful. Suggesting yet again Tika would turn on each other but didn't. Not making it obvious that Carson had the puzzle win in the 3D printed bag the second we saw the challenge.
I'm surprised Carson lost simmotion. I just assumed he had a timing strategy in his head before he left for Fiji.
I will continue to die on the hill that fire making is too easy. Not to downplay Heidi's skill, but why is such an "important" challenge something that can be won in a few minutes?
Heidi made a good call to go to fire, but to me it's such an easy task and not important relative to the rest of the game that it's just not something that elevated her much at all.
She had to do it the second she vocalized that it could be important. You can't back down from that.
Yam-Yam strikes me as one of the more social based winners we've had in a long time. How does the jury perceive you - they loooove me! Yeah, I'd want to vote for him.
Heidi was terrible at tribal council, starting with the interruption. Beyond that, I thought the questions and answers were solid.
A lot of people are bemoaning the fact that Carolyn placed third, but the juries know what they're doing. They don't want to risk a split vote changing the outcome or Carolyn unexpectedly winning because everyone thought they were giving her a "third place vote". Her game was great and placing third doesn't mean she wasn't better than Heidi necesscarily.
Carolyn also got $100,000 in Sia money.
I am happy that Yam Yam won. Ultimately I was rooting for Carolyn, as was seemingly everyone, but I do think Yam Yam played the better game overall. He is very deserving.
I'm disappointed that Carolyn didn't get a single vote. She definitely played a fantastic game. I'd say her and Yam were on the same level strategically, but Yam was better socially. I think Carolyn might be the best zero vote finalist ever, with probably only Michele from WaW in contention.
Heidi just seemed too bland to win against anyone in the Tika 3. She never really had control for more than a vote, and she was so heavily linked with Danny. She made too many blunders, like playing an idol when her name wasn't out there. And she cut someone off at the final Tribal Council, only to make an invalid point that was immediately called out. Her only audience was Danny, because he's the type of player who wants someone to unnecessarily put themselves at risk in fire.
I do hope that Heidi's decision to make fire and the fact that it didn't ultimately make a difference, will make future players realize that they shouldn't have to put themselves in that position.
I wish we would have seen more Lauren. She's seems extremely likable and energetic. She was so fun to watch before her vote out last night.
I'll update my season and player rankings later tonight and share them with you, but ultimately this was a good season, but not top-tier. There weren't any huge, memorable moments, but the characters were fantastic. I also can't ignore the fact that I felt like production broke the game for the first few votes of the merge. The Survivor community was at an incredible low for those episodes.
I'm disappointed that Carolyn didn't get a single vote. She definitely played a fantastic game. I'd say her and Yam were on the same level strategically, but Yam was better socially. I think Carolyn might be the best zero vote finalist ever, with probably only Michele from WaW in contention.
Heidi just seemed too bland to win against anyone in the Tika 3. She never really had control for more than a vote, and she was so heavily linked with Danny. She made too many blunders, like playing an idol when her name wasn't out there. And she cut someone off at the final Tribal Council, only to make an invalid point that was immediately called out. Her only audience was Danny, because he's the type of player who wants someone to unnecessarily put themselves at risk in fire.
I do hope that Heidi's decision to make fire and the fact that it didn't ultimately make a difference, will make future players realize that they shouldn't have to put themselves in that position.
I wish we would have seen more Lauren. She's seems extremely likable and energetic. She was so fun to watch before her vote out last night.
I'll update my season and player rankings later tonight and share them with you, but ultimately this was a good season, but not top-tier. There weren't any huge, memorable moments, but the characters were fantastic. I also can't ignore the fact that I felt like production broke the game for the first few votes of the merge. The Survivor community was at an incredible low for those episodes.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Agree with pretty much everything you said @PUSH . I was disappointed when Aubrey lost to Michelle, but I unfortunately knew what the mentality of the jury was that season. Michelle is likeable and played a decent game, but Aubrey should have won IMO. For WAW, I liked Michelle a LOT better and thought she played a much better game and thought she deserved a vote or two or three. However, I feel like the competition was more fierce and there was no way Tony wasn't getting a vast majority of the votes. He was a beast and really played a different game that season than in Cagayan.
Yam Yam played a good game, is a VERY loveable person, got to know a bunch of people. However, let's face it. He did get lucky from time to time. I equate his game very much to Mike's game in season 42. Carolyn's game was not quite to the caliber as Maryann and, let's face it, while Carolyn was pretty darn good in the final TC, she was not absolutely superior in front of the jury like Maryann. Carolyn had a GREAT story and is one of those very special people on Survivor who has an absolutely amazing story to tell both in real life and during her time in Survivor. But for some reason, those on the fence between she and Yam Yam chose Yam Yam. I thought she'd at least get votes from Frannie and Lauren though.
I don't feel like Heidi did very well in front of the jury. She didn't do horribly, but she really didn't do anything to nail down votes or truly tell her journey in the game. But I do feel she played a very good game.
It was nice to see 3 stand outs in the final 4 with those standouts having been from a minority tribe at the merge. And it was nice to see the two biggest stand-outs in recent years (both being VERY likable) being in the final 3.
Yam Yam played a good game, is a VERY loveable person, got to know a bunch of people. However, let's face it. He did get lucky from time to time. I equate his game very much to Mike's game in season 42. Carolyn's game was not quite to the caliber as Maryann and, let's face it, while Carolyn was pretty darn good in the final TC, she was not absolutely superior in front of the jury like Maryann. Carolyn had a GREAT story and is one of those very special people on Survivor who has an absolutely amazing story to tell both in real life and during her time in Survivor. But for some reason, those on the fence between she and Yam Yam chose Yam Yam. I thought she'd at least get votes from Frannie and Lauren though.
I don't feel like Heidi did very well in front of the jury. She didn't do horribly, but she really didn't do anything to nail down votes or truly tell her journey in the game. But I do feel she played a very good game.
It was nice to see 3 stand outs in the final 4 with those standouts having been from a minority tribe at the merge. And it was nice to see the two biggest stand-outs in recent years (both being VERY likable) being in the final 3.