Surprise! Red Tier Now Begins Sunday; Downtown Disney Restaurants???

[TP2000]

@TP2000 what’s the most recent positivity rate for OC? I saw for state it’s around 3.5% overall. Seems like new case numbers are plunging!

Great question! The rates have been dropping fast since January 5th, so about six weeks now.

Dropping like a rock actually since January 5th, now that I take a look at the official OC charts.

7 Day Rolling Average Of Cases - Orange County
January 5th = 4,542 Cases
January 15th = 2,302 Cases
January 21st = 1,668 Cases
January 30th = 1,100 Cases
February 8th = 655 Cases

Now, as of today, our Adjusted Daily Case Rate per 100,000 is 20.7, and that's what is used to rank us in the Purple Tier under the Blueprint For A Safer Economy Tier Framework (their words, not mine).

To get Disneyland reopened, Orange County has to get down to the Yellow Tier. The thresholds for those Tiers are as follows;

Purple Tier= >7 New Daily Cases Per 100,000 (we are currently at 20.7)
Red Tier= 4 to 7 New Daily Cases Per 100,000
Orange Tier= 1 to 3.9 New Daily Cases Per 100,000
Yellow Tier= Less Than 1 New Daily Cases Per 100,000

So... yeah. There's still a long way to go to get OC down to the Yellow Tier.

And then, once that happens, Disneyland may reopen... with only 25% Capacity, no use of Indoor Queues or entertainment, and no one allowed entry into the park if their zip code is more than 120 miles away. Show us your ID and Papers!

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

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[TP2000]

I believe anything we had was shutdown by previous governments, and nothing was able to get online in time somehow...

They do have some manufacturing they hope to have up by last this year. A bit late hey?

It seems our contracts are only with the Europe factions. I'm unsure if the US side is making anything for anyone else right now?

Fascinating. Thank you for the info!

 

[ayyylmao]

The decrease is mostly due to the significant drop in the number of tests (amazing what happens when they convert testing sites to vaccination sites - everybody instantly got more healthy!). The positive rate of 7.7% is about the same as at Thanksgiving when health officials were in full blown panic mode, but as you can see from the chart (click on PCR tab below), the number of daily tests has plummeted since early January. Apparently, post-inauguration nobody needs to be tested anymore.

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

ochca.maps.arcgis.com

Also quite conveniently the WHO reduced the cycle threshold needed to test positive at the same time. What a coincidence.

WHO Information Notice for Users 2020/05

Product type: Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2 Date: 13 January 2021 WHO-identifier: 2020/5, version 2 Target audience: laboratory professionals and...

www.who.int

 

[cmwade77]

Also quite conveniently the WHO reduced the cycle threshold needed to test positive at the same time. What a coincidence.

WHO Information Notice for Users 2020/05

Product type: Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2 Date: 13 January 2021 WHO-identifier: 2020/5, version 2 Target audience: laboratory professionals and...

www.who.int

Yeah and we know the threshold was too high resulting in a lot of false positives, but the timing seems very odd indeed.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Yeah and we know the threshold was too high resulting in a lot of false positives, but the timing seems very odd indeed.

More bunk as usual.

 

[TP2000]

The decrease is mostly due to the significant drop in the number of tests (amazing what happens when they convert testing sites to vaccination sites - everybody instantly got more healthy!). The positive rate of 7.7% is about the same as at Thanksgiving when health officials were in full blown panic mode, but as you can see from the chart (click on PCR tab below), the number of daily tests has plummeted since early January. Apparently, post-inauguration nobody needs to be tested anymore.

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

ochca.maps.arcgis.com

I hadn't thought of that, and you are right, there is a huge dropoff in OC testing since the first of January.

Although, I would think with fewer people getting sick there is a need for fewer tests. So we could also be looking at a Chicken Or The Egg scenario as part of that decline in daily testing rates.

Interesting Experience: I went out to La Quinta with friends for the holiday weekend, and at a bar there was a young couple we were chatting with who were about to go dancing at another club that evening. There are many discos and dance clubs now open in Orange and San Bernardino Counties, in defiance of the government ban on disco dancing.

The subject of Pandemic Fatigue came up, and the young couple had a really interesting point. They said everyone they knew their age (mid/late 20's) was openly defying the bans on clubs and bars and restaurant dining not because they are afraid of catching Covid, but because they now know so many people including themselves who already caught Covid and had either very mild to non-existent symptoms.

Testing has been so widely and easily available in California for so long, and for free, that all these healthy young people already had Covid and knew it was of very little impact to them. So either they've already had it, or they simply aren't afraid of it because they know multiple friends who had it and only suffered with mild flu to minor cold symptoms for a few days.

That is probably an outcome of mass testing that government planners had no scenario for. So many people now have personal experience with Covid, and with official medical lab results that prove they had Covid and not some other cold or flu. All the mass testing removed the fear and unknowns that existed six or eight months ago from the Covid scenario.

I found their perspective really interesting, and something I hadn't really thought through like that before!

 

[TP2000]

And the knock-on effects of our failures regarding containing the virus are impacting vaccine distribution. Take Canada, for example: they have contracts to get the vaccine in numbers comparable to the US, but those contracts are being delayed to help fix the issues in the US first. Given that the US also has the financial muscle to throw a ridiculous amount of money at fixing the solution that other countries cannot hope for, and it is completely unsurprising that the United States is vaccinating more people than anywhere else.

I'm confused. Are you saying that Canada had an order in for vaccine doses ahead of the USA, but the USA paid extra money to jump the line and take Canada's doses away from them? And no one in Ottawa put up a fight over that???

Operation Warp Speed was crafted in April, 2020 and formally announced and began on May 15th, 2020. The vaccine doses the US federal government has been distributing to the 50 states and overseas territories have all come from Operation Warp Speed orders and payments the Feds had with Moderna and Pfizer in 2020. The US government paid $10 Billion for those vaccines back in 2020. Those vaccines are being made in manufacturing facilities in Michigan and Indiana, with Johnson&Johnson coming online now at their Maryland plant.

I don't believe the USA actually stole, or outbid, supply that was once planned for sale to Canada. Because that's what it sounds like you are saying happened?

Regardless of whatever plans Ottawa had, or didn't have, to vaccinate 35+ Million Canadians, whoever is in charge of Canada's vaccination plans has not done a good job. Here is today's hard data on that....

Vaccination Rates As Of February 16, 2021
Canada = 3 Doses Per 100 Citizens, 1.8% Population Given One Shot, 0.8% Population Given Two Shots
USA = 17 Doses Per 100 Citizens, 12.2% Population Given One Shot, 4.7% Population Given Two Shots

More Than 12.7 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker

Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 184 countries and 59 US states and territories

www.bloomberg.com

That said, there are still problems with the rollout. Leaving distribution up to the states has proven to be a poor choice, especially with not creating a national model to get the vaccine out to areas of need as efficiently as possible. Distribution has also been poor, which is hurting more-populous states that are struggling to get access to the amounts of the vaccine they need, as has our frankly-bonkers approach to who gets vaccinated first.

It's surprising to see which states have done really well with their vaccination rollouts, and which states haven't. If you had told me a year ago that West Virginia would completely kick butt at this, and do it faster and cheaper and more efficiently than almost all other states, I would have laughed. And I used to have relatives in Wheeling, so I can say that about the Mountaineer State.

But the fact remains, we are a federal republic with 50 states. Each state approaches health care administration differently, much of it using federal dollars.

It's been shocking to see how poorly some of the European countries have been dealing with the pandemic, both with their high death rates in 2020 and now their low vaccination rates in 2021. Some EU nations handled it much better than others, and sometimes it was the wealthiest EU nations that had the worst of it.

The EU appears to be much like the USA, where Belgium is California and Serbia is West Virginia.

The Cool Rich Kids
Belgium = 1,900 Deaths Per 1 Million, 5 Doses Per 100 People, 3.2% Population Given One Shot
California = 1,197 Deaths Per 1 Million, 16 Doses Per 100 People, 11.9% Population Given One Shot

The Hick Poor Kids
Serbia = 610 Deaths Per 1 Million, 12 Doses Per 100 People, 9.1% Population Given One Shot
West Virginia = 1,210 Deaths Per 1 Million, 22 Doses Per 100 People, 14.1% Population Given One Shot

So in summation: yes we are immunizing more people than other places, but there's a lot going on that explains why, and doesn't excuse the United States at any point.

Blame the weather, blame the horoscope, blame the mailman. Blame whomever you want. The good news... no, the great news for us is that the USA is one of the leading countries in vaccinating its citizens.

New Zealand is cut off from the world. Foreigners can't get in, and New Zealanders can't get off that island. They are stuck there until either the entire world has been vaccinated, or their entire nation has been vaccinated. New Zealand's latest timetable for beginning vaccinations is June.

Coronavirus Updates (COVID-19) Deaths & Cases per 1M Population | RealClearPolitics

Coronavirus Updates (COVID-19) Deaths & Cases per Population | RealClearPolitics

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[Darkbeer1]

COVID-19 metrics improve for 5 weeks, moving OC closer to red tier

Orange County’s improving test positivity has reached red tier levels; if the case rate and health equity metrics can catch up, the county could advance to the less restrictive tier in coming…

www.ocregister.com

 

[TP2000]

COVID-19 metrics improve for 5 weeks, moving OC closer to red tier

Orange County’s improving test positivity has reached red tier levels; if the case rate and health equity metrics can catch up, the county could advance to the less restrictive tier in coming…

www.ocregister.com

Great news!

But as I said last week, I really doubt that the Blueprint For A Safer Economy will exist by Easter. Governor Newsom will have replaced it with something that moves the goalposts again, but this time makes it easier to reopen and easier to return to normal.

We had a Western States Pact in April, 2020 that was then completely ignored.

We had a Four-Stage Resilience Roadmap To Recovery in May, 2020 that lasted three months, before it was replaced by...

The Four-Tier Blueprint For A Safer Economy in August, 2020 that lasted three months, before it was superseded by...

The Regional Stay-At-Home Order that began on December 3rd, that locked down the massive state again in 5 Regions.

Then the Regional-Stay-At-Home Order was suddenly cancelled by Newsom effective immediately on January 25th, 2021. This also cancelled the Statewide 10PM Curfew from November 19th that absolutely no one was obeying, not even California icon In-N-Out Burger.

That sent us back to the Four-Tier Blueprint For A Safer Economy from August, 2020. But no one really remembers that, and now it's just sort of a mish-mash of arbitrary rules and toothless mandates that few counties actually enforce and no small business obeys.

Which is why strip mall dive bars, non-corporate restaurants, and suburban discotheques are openly flouting and disobeying the Sacramento decrees against public alcohol consumption, Date Nite dinners, and disco dancing. And that's a Trifecta Of Sin!

So a new system needs to be created this spring.

I just realized this, gang... Trifecta Of Sin would be a fabulous name for Newsom's new system!

Whatever the new system is called, Disneyland still remains closed until OC reaches the Yellow Tier. When it can reopen at 25% capacity, no indoor queues may be used, and no one with a government ID issued further than 120 miles away may be allowed in to the park.

COVID-19 pandemic in California - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

But seriously, when Newsom rolls out his new system this spring, I'm voting for it to be called Trifecta Of Sin.

 

[SuddenStorm]

Great news!

But as I said last week, I really doubt that the Blueprint For A Safer Economy will exist by Easter. Governor Newsom will have replaced it with something that changes the goalposts again, but this time makes it easier to reopen and easier to return to normal.

We had a Western States Pact in April, 2020 that was then completely ignored.

We had a Four-Stage Resilience Roadmap To Recovery in May, 2020 that lasted three months.

We had a Four-Tier Blueprint For A Safer Economy in August, 2020 that lasted three months, before it was superseded by...

The Regional Stay-At-Home Order that began on December 3rd, that locked down the massive state again in 5 Regions.

Then the Regional-Stay-At-Home Order was suddenly cancelled effective immediately on January 25th, 2021. This also cancelled the Statewide 10PM Curfew from November 19th that absolutely no one was obeying, not even In-N-Out Burger.

That sent us back to the Four-Tier Blueprint For A Safer Economy from August, 2020. But no one really remembers that, and now it's just sort of a mish-mash of rules and mandates that few counties actually enforce and no small business obeys.

Which is why strip mall dive bars, non-corporate restaurants, and suburban discotheques are openly flouting and disobeying the Sacramento decrees against public alcohol consumption, Valentine's Day dinners, and disco dancing. And that's a Trifecta Of Sin!

Now even the corporate places are beginning to disobey the Sacramento mandates. So a new system needs to be created this spring.

Otherwise, Disneyland remains closed until OC reaches the Yellow Tier. When it can reopen at 25% capacity, no indoor queues may be used, and no one with a government ID issued further than 120 miles away may be allowed in to the park.

COVID-19 pandemic in California - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Excellent post... and I think it highlights a point beyond Disneyland's continued unnecessary closure.

I fully expect the events of this last year in California will cause long term damage to California resident's trust of their government. You simply can't change the messaging that frequently and maintain the trust and respect of the people. And business owners aren't going to forget. I expect there to be some measures proposed to prevent the California government from acting this way in the future, and I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few politicians throughout California get voted out when the time comes.

In the future, if someone has to choose between California, and say Texas or Utah to open a business... especially one that isn't deemed 'essential', why would they pick California?

And it's interesting to think that as things stand- even with the vaccine and enhanced safety measures Disneyland will only be able to reopen at 25%. And even if you've already had covid, or are vaccinated, a mask will still be required.

 

[Disney Irish]

Great news!

But as I said last week, I really doubt that the Blueprint For A Safer Economy will exist by Easter. Governor Newsom will have replaced it with something that moves the goalposts again, but this time makes it easier to reopen and easier to return to normal.

We had a Western States Pact in April, 2020 that was then completely ignored.

We had a Four-Stage Resilience Roadmap To Recovery in May, 2020 that lasted three months.

We had a Four-Tier Blueprint For A Safer Economy in August, 2020 that lasted three months, before it was superseded by...

The Regional Stay-At-Home Order that began on December 3rd, that locked down the massive state again in 5 Regions.

Then the Regional-Stay-At-Home Order was suddenly cancelled effective immediately on January 25th, 2021. This also cancelled the Statewide 10PM Curfew from November 19th that absolutely no one was obeying, not even California icon In-N-Out Burger.

That sent us back to the Four-Tier Blueprint For A Safer Economy from August, 2020. But no one really remembers that, and now it's just sort of a mish-mash of arbitrary rules and toothless mandates that few counties actually enforce and no small business obeys.

Which is why strip mall dive bars, non-corporate restaurants, and suburban discotheques are openly flouting and disobeying the Sacramento decrees against public alcohol consumption, Date Nite dinners, and disco dancing. And that's a Trifecta Of Sin!

So a new system needs to be created this spring.

I just realized this, gang... Trifecta Of Sin would be a fabulous name for Newsom's new system!

Whatever the new system is called, Disneyland still remains closed until OC reaches the Yellow Tier. When it can reopen at 25% capacity, no indoor queues may be used, and no one with a government ID issued further than 120 miles away may be allowed in to the park.

COVID-19 pandemic in California - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

But seriously, when Newsom rolls out his new system this spring, I'm voting for it to be called Trifecta Of Sin.

Actually your assessment of the Yellow tier restrictions are incorrect, those are for smaller parks under the Orange Tier.

https://files.covid19.ca.gov/pdf/guidance-amusement-theme-parks--en.pdf

There is no restriction for indoor queues nor a distance restriction for large parks under the Yellow tier. But hey I know its confusing because so many rumors were thrown around for months before the actual guidelines were released.

Also this might all change if the recent Bill is passed which puts all theme parks no matter size under the Orange tier. Which, and this might actually surprise you, I agree should be done.

 

[TP2000]

Actually your assessment of the Yellow tier restrictions are incorrect, those are for smaller parks under the Orange Tier.

https://files.covid19.ca.gov/pdf/guidance-amusement-theme-parks--en.pdf

There is no restriction for indoor queues nor a distance restriction for large parks under the Yellow tier. But hey I know its confusing because so many rumors were thrown around for months before the actual guidelines were released.

Also this might all change if the recent Bill is passed which puts all theme parks no matter size under the Orange tier. Which, and this might actually surprise you, I agree should be done.

Oh, you're right! Only the smaller parks (Gilroy Gardens, Castle Park, etc.) got saddled with the 120 mile radius restriction in the Orange Tier. The big parks (Disneyland, Universal, Sea World, Knott's, etc.) are allowed to accept customers from more than 120 miles away if their county reaches the Yellow Tier.

But the restrictions on Indoor Queues remain in the Yellow Tier for the bigger parks. Probably especially for the bigger parks, because I don't think the smaller parks really have indoor queues. That restriction was designed specifically for the big parks like Disneyland and Universal Studios which have large indoor queues; Indiana Jones, The Mummy, Millennium Falcon: Target Run, Harry Potter Thing, etc.

But honestly, I fully expect the entire Blueprint For A Safer Economy to go the way of the Western States Pact and the Statewide 10PM Curfew and be replaced with something entirely new and much less restrictive.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh, you're right! Only the smaller parks (Gilroy Gardens, Castle Park, etc.) got saddled with the 120 mile radius restriction in the Orange Tier. The big parks (Disneyland, Universal, Sea World, Knott's, etc.) are allowed to accept customers from more than 120 miles away if their county reaches the Yellow Tier.

But the restrictions on Indoor Queues remain in the Yellow Tier for the bigger parks. Probably especially for the bigger parks, because I don't think the smaller parks really have indoor queues. That restriction was designed specifically for the big parks like Disneyland and Universal Studios which have large indoor queues; Indiana Jones, The Mummy, Millennium Falcon: Target Run, Harry Potter Thing, etc.

But honestly, I fully expect the entire Blueprint For A Safer Economy to go the way of the Western States Pact and the Statewide 10PM Curfew and be replaced with something entirely new and much less restrictive.

What I meant is that there is no additional restrictions on indoor queues for Yellow tier, not that there aren't any at all.

As for the changes in the different restrictions as time went on, this was always going to happen. This happened in other states as well. There was never going to be one set of rules that lasted the entire pandemic because by its very definition a pandemic is a dynamically changing thing. Nothing is static in a pandemic, as such the response to the pandemic also cannot remain static. I know that isn't ideal but that is what has to be done during a pandemic.

So whether the "Blueprint For A Safer Economy" goes away and is replaced or not will remain to be seen. But overall I expect as we get into spring we'll hear about a way to go back to normal in late summer/early fall depending on vaccination numbers. Which I expect to include a way to have Disneyland and other theme parks to have higher than 25% capacity even if that includes with masks. By the way Disney has already stated masks and other social distancing requirements will remain at all Disney Parks until 2022, even if not required by the individual state/country.

 

[TP2000]

Excellent post... and I think it highlights a point beyond Disneyland's continued unnecessary closure.

I fully expect the events of this last year in California will cause long term damage to California resident's trust of their government. You simply can't change the messaging that frequently and maintain the trust and respect of the people.

Exactly. I said this a few times in the past month or so, but I worry about the long-term damage Sacramento's ever-changing and erratic messaging has had on Californians and their trust in government.

When a real emergency comes, and it will in a state riddled with major earthquake faults and active volcanoes, will curfews and mandates from Sacramento actually mean anything?

I doubt they will, since few obeyed them from about June, 2020 through 2021 with absolutely no repercussions. That's a problem.

And business owners aren't going to forget. I expect there to be some measures proposed to prevent the California government from acting this way in the future, and I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few politicians throughout California get voted out when the time comes.

In the future, if someone has to choose between California, and say Texas or Utah to open a business... especially one that isn't deemed 'essential', why would they pick California?

That's a whole other topic, but the exodus from California that began slowly earlier in the 2010's turned into a flood in 2020. That's gonna be a problem for this entire decade, if not beyond.

And it's interesting to think that as things stand- even with the vaccine and enhanced safety measures Disneyland will only be able to reopen at 25%. And even if you've already had covid, or are vaccinated, a mask will still be required.

Again, this only proves that the ridiculous "guidance" for reopening California theme parks in the Blueprint For A Safer Economy is unworkable and laughable. 25% capacity? No indoor queues? Please.

The only good news is that the political winds shifted quickly the last 60 days, and now it's just a matter of time before all the 2020 rules get reversed for 2021.

The only question is what Sacramento will call the new rules this spring. I really am praying for Trifecta Of Sin.

 

[Disney Irish]

Exactly. I said this a few times in the past month or so, but I worry about the long-term damage Sacramento's ever-changing and erratic messaging has had on Californians and their trust in government.

When a real emergency comes, and it will in a state riddled with major earthquake faults and active volcanoes, will curfews and mandates from Sacramento actually mean anything?

I doubt they will, since few obeyed them from about June, 2020 through 2021 with absolutely no repercussions. That's a problem.

Some would consider a pandemic a "real emergency", but lets set that aside. In the event that an earthquake or other natural disaster happens, short term curfews and mandates will be followed because there will be no choice. Its a lot easier to see and be impacted by a natural disaster rather than a pandemic. So its a lot easier for a population to follow mandates during that type of emergency.

 

[TP2000]

Also this might all change if the recent Bill is passed which puts all theme parks no matter size under the Orange tier. Which, and this might actually surprise you, I agree should be done.

For the record: That actually doesn't surprise me. I read all of your posts. I can tell you have nuance and a bit of flexibility in your opinions and positions, and that you are not a rigid Shut-It-Downer (whatever the heck that means).

Six months ago I also thought Disneyland should be allowed to reopen in the Orange Tier, except without the bizarre restrictions on Indoor Queues which prevent most E Tickets from operating.

But now? I'm just over the whole thing. Open it all up, ASAP. Start without parades and Fantasmic!, sure. Limit the park capacity a bit at first, so it's not like the massive gridlock crowds we've all experienced the last 10 years. But Disneyland needs to be reopened now.

If a statewide curfew and a Stay-At-Home Order can be rescinded without warning and effective immediately, then the rules on reopening theme parks from last October can also be rescinded effective immediately. It's obvious to me at this point.

 

[TP2000]

Some would consider a pandemic a "real emergency", but lets set that aside. In the event that an earthquake or other natural disaster happens, short term curfews and mandates will be followed because there will be no choice. Its a lot easier to see and be impacted by a natural disaster rather than a pandemic. So its a lot easier for a population to follow mandates during that type of emergency.

In the immediate destruction area, yes.

But lets say the San Andreas rips open with a 7.8 next week. Palm Springs and much of San Bernardino County will be devastated and thousands will die in the Inland Empire and Coachella Valley, but much of Orange County will only have mild damage. LA County, which is MASSIVE and has 10 Million people in it, will vary from severe damage in the southeast to mild damage in the northwest. Pomona will be destroyed, but Pacific Palisades will only have to deal with a few broken wine glasses knocked off shelves.

If Sacramento tries to impose a regional curfew for all of SoCal after the big one, will OC obey it? Will Ventura County obey it?

A clear precedent has been set and observed in 2020-2021: When Sacramento issues mandates and decrees, and even imposes the first statewide curfew since World War II, you don't actually have to obey. And no police officer or sheriff or In-N-Out shift supervisor will punish you for disobeying. Even the Target Ladies are still nice to you when you shop after 10PM at Christmas during a statewide curfew.

That's gonna be a BIG problem going forward when a real emergency comes along.

 

[Disney Irish]

In the immediate destruction area, yes.

But lets say the San Andreas rips open with a 7.8 next week. Palm Springs and much of San Bernardino County will be devastated and thousands will die in the Inland Empire and Coachella Valley, but much of Orange County will only have mild damage. LA County, which is MASSIVE and has 10 Million people in it, will vary from severe damage in the southeast to mild damage in the northwest. Pomona will be destroyed, but Pacific Palisades will only have to deal with a few broken wine glasses knocked off shelves.

If Sacramento tries to impose a regional curfew for all of SoCal after the big one, will OC obey it? Will Ventura County obey it?

A clear precedent has been set and observed in 2020-2021: When Sacramento issues mandates and decrees, and even imposes the first statewide curfew since World War II, you don't actually have to obey. And no police officer or sheriff or In-N-Out shift supervisor will punish you for disobeying. Even the Target Ladies are still nice to you when you shop after 10PM at Christmas during a statewide curfew.

That's gonna be a BIG problem going forward when a real emergency comes along.

Well I disagree, but let’s hope we don’t have to find out who is right.

 

[TP2000]

Well I disagree, but let’s hope we don’t have to find out who is right.

It's only a matter of time. The San Andreas is just sitting there out in the desert, stretching and getting weaker...

There's also a half dozen active volcanoes in central and northern California, bubbling away below the surface.

 

[unmitigated disaster]

Some would consider a pandemic a "real emergency", but lets set that aside. In the event that an earthquake or other natural disaster happens, short term curfews and mandates will be followed because there will be no choice. Its a lot easier to see and be impacted by a natural disaster rather than a pandemic. So its a lot easier for a population to follow mandates during that type of emergency.

And, as we have discovered this past year, this forum will be filled with people rejecting facts and screaming for the reopening on Disneyland.

As a side note, the US should hit 500,000 deaths from Covid this week.