News Storms a brewin’ in the Atlantic

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Yeah we’re supposed to be there a week from now. The ones coming up through the Gulf aren’t the ones that worry me; it’s the one developing off the coast of Africa that’s giving me pause.
Late Aug/Sept is peak hurricane season . I'm keeping an eye on it too.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
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Sounds like a doctor I used to know. People repeat the same thing. When you came in sick, he would always say it's a virus.
 

DCBaker

Well-Known Member
Wow - a major shift for Marco. Here is the most recent update for both storms -

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EPCOT-O.G.

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
The one I was watching - the "third disturbance," or "disturbance 3" - which was forming off of Africa was just downgraded to a 0% chance of forming within the next 48 hours or the next 5 days. The other two - Laura and Marco - look to be heading northward once they hit the gulf.
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
Watching the satellite loops I just don't see Marco doing much. More like the Nature Coast with rain but New Orleans? It would have to take quite a turn from it's present direction.
Laura is being shredded by interaction with land for the next day or so and it will be weakened. Once both of these enter the gulf they might strengthen but I can't see anything major here.
I have been here in the west coast of Florida for 20 years and am not planning on taking any precautions beyond what I do at the start of every hurricane season.
I could be wrong, it happens
 
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larryz

Today's Maytag Repairman
Premium Member
Spaghetti a la Marco for breakfast.
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NOT A WEATHERMAN, but it looks to me like the High over Arkansas and the Low over Southern New Mexico will shift just far enough east by tomorrow that they'll create a channel for Marco right over Louisiana. Just like the models said. Assuming things don't stop or accelerate.
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
Spaghetti a la Marco for breakfast.
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NOT A WEATHERMAN, but it looks to me like the High over Arkansas and the Low over Southern New Mexico will shift just far enough east by tomorrow that they'll create a channel for Marco right over Louisiana. Just like the models said. Assuming things don't stop or accelerate.
I watch this loop and can't see LA. More like the panhandle/nature coast. Looks like NNE movement and it would have to turn into the high. Not a weatherman but it seems that way to me

 

thomas998

Well-Known Member
So with the dropping numbers and our local school district’s decision to go remote learning, we worked up enough courage to do a quick trip to visit in less than two weeks. Refundable airfare booked (yay SWA!) and was about to pull the trigger on a room but now see there’s a series of developing storms meteorologists are tracking. We’ve done trips to the region in the past (we flew around a hurricane once en route to our honeymoon in the Virgin Islands) but what’s the read on the ground in FL / central FL for these storm systems?
I suggest you use this website: http://skeetobiteweather.com/ the first page that pops up will have any named storms that are in or expected to be near the Atlantic side of the US. It will show not only the official paths of the storms that are being used by local meteorologist but will also show you the all the main computer models. If you prefer a more difficult to understand source you can also use http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ it will also give you the highlights along with forecast for all of August that is pretty much what most experts would use as a source... When I was working in a gas trading company that was concerned with hurricanes in the Gulf region those were two of the most popular sources that traders would use. Frankly I suggest you just stick with the skeetobiteweather but I included the other just so you could see that they basically show you the same information only skeetobite is more to the point and leaves out a lot of the really long term stuff that is more guess than anything else.
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
I suggest you use this website: http://skeetobiteweather.com/ the first page that pops up will have any named storms that are in or expected to be near the Atlantic side of the US. It will show not only the official paths of the storms that are being used by local meteorologist but will also show you the all the main computer models. If you prefer a more difficult to understand source you can also use http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ it will also give you the highlights along with forecast for all of August that is pretty much what most experts would use as a source... When I was working in a gas trading company that was concerned with hurricanes in the Gulf region those were two of the most popular sources that traders would use. Frankly I suggest you just stick with the skeetobiteweather but I included the other just so you could see that they basically show you the same information only skeetobite is more to the point and leaves out a lot of the really long term stuff that is more guess than anything else.
I like Mike
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
I've seen his page before, I just thought it was a bit overwhelming for someone that just wants to try and get some peace of mind. His page seems to throw everything at the visitor which could lead to some unnecessary anxiety.
All the tools in one place for me. Lets me see raw data and compare to what the models are seeing.
Can be overwhelming but I live in Florida so a needed skill.
 

larryz

Today's Maytag Repairman
Premium Member
All the tools in one place for me. Lets me see raw data and compare to what the models are seeing.
Can be overwhelming but I live in Florida so a needed skill.
Grew up around New Orleans, and then lived in the Tampa area for most of a decade. I have a bad feeling about these two... if I lived in Louisiana, I believe I'd be headed north this afternoon.
 

thomas998

Well-Known Member
All the tools in one place for me. Lets me see raw data and compare to what the models are seeing.
Can be overwhelming but I live in Florida so a needed skill.
Understood. It brought back memories to the screens the weather guy on the trade floor had up when a hurricane was forming. Not that he was any more accurate at predicting where it was actually going to hit or how much damage it was going to do. Until you are within about 72 hours of landfall things are still likely to be in a state of flux.
 

larryz

Today's Maytag Repairman
Premium Member
Raise your hand if you remember watching Nash Roberts and plotting the hurricane's coordinates on the map out of the Times-Picayune...
 

Doberge

Active Member
Raise your hand if you remember watching Nash Roberts and plotting the hurricane's coordinates on the map out of the Times-Picayune...

They'd bring him out of retirement in the late 1990s just for hurricanes. It drove others nuts that his paper and marker models outperformed their computer modules.

I have a bad feeling about these two... if I lived in Louisiana, I believe I'd be headed north this afternoon.

I'm in New Orleans and there's little concern, rightly or wrongly. Everything is shutting down for Monday and many are hoping for normal days Tuesday and Wednesday. I'm more worried about Laura now being forecasted as a category 2 and hitting just west than a more direct hit from a strong tropical storm or category 1.
 

muddyrivers

Well-Known Member
I'm in New Orleans and there's little concern, rightly or wrongly. Everything is shutting down for Monday and many are hoping for normal days Tuesday and Wednesday. I'm more worried about Laura now being forecasted as a category 2 and hitting just west than a more direct hit from a strong tropical storm or category 1.

I agree, it looks like Laura is going to be more of a gut punch for New Orleans not only because it's forecasted to be stronger, but also because it's coming only 48 hours after Marco rolls through so there will be little time to do any repairs or cleanup caused by Marco. I'm hearing reports Laura may get up to a Cat 3 since it's staying south of Cuba and will have some previously unexpected time to strengthen.

Keeping my fingers crossed for the people impacted and hopefully the city of New Orleans will fare better than in the past!
 
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