News Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance to begin Standby September 23rd

[TrainsOfDisney]

Keep in mind that Galaxy's Edge was brand new in 2019. WWoHP wasn't "alive" with streetmosphere when it first opened either, it was filled with crushing crowds in line for the shops and attractions.

Not correct. I visited right after Gringotts
opened, it was so close to opening that the VIP guide couldn’t get us on (and I wasn’t with a paid for VIP, this was a real VIP i was with).

The land was crowded but very alive. I remember streetmosphere out.

 

[flynnibus]

staying at a $45/night hotel in Kissimmee

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Or the simple fact.. you can't have gargantuan wait times when there isn't anyone there to get in line.

That would make sense if Tower had a 20 minute wait.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That would make sense if Tower had a 20 minute wait.

Or it makes sense if that park that was getting close to 11 million (estimated) clicks a year has the same (or less) capacity as when it got 8 mil 25 years ago…

 

[doctornick]

Hey, I'm all about Rise having low waits times if people aren't interested in riding/re-riding. I'll be happy to fill the spots and go on multiple times a day on my next trip.

 

[Dranth]

That would make sense if Tower had a 20 minute wait.

How much of the wait on these low crowd days is artificial though? We know they won't run rides wide open if they are expecting a low crowd day.

 

[DisneyCane]

How much of the wait on these low crowd days is artificial though? We know they won't run rides wide open if they are expecting a low crowd day.

Or with ToT, like when I was there a couple of weeks ago one elevator went down and the wait quickly went from 20 minutes to 45 while I was in line. The line completely stopped moving for 10 minutes after we had reached the dry fountain area. Normally the wait from there to the library is 5 minutes or so.

 

[flynnibus]

That would make sense if Tower had a 20 minute wait.

Sept 23

nearly 3x as long as Tower...
nearly 2x as long as MFSR
nearly 2x as long as the newest attraction in the park (MMRR)
nearly 50% longer than the only rollercoaster in the park

On a day that is in the bottom 10% of attendance.

 

[DisneyCane]

I personally think the lower than expected standby line for ROTR might partially be because a lot of people thought the line would be several hours long and they went somewhere else instead. As people are finding out that the line is not as bad as they thought they will begin heading there and the long wait times will soon appear.

I hope it doesn't turn into a 1.5-2+ hour wait but I will find out in a few weeks. I'm driving 15.5 hours from the St. Louis area and doing a solo 8 day visit to WDW and Universal, staying at a $45/night hotel in Kissimmee. I've done the high dollar vacations to WDW before and I'd like to see how much fun I can have going low budget for a change.

I don't know if I'd go quite that low budget. With rates that low I wouldn't expect great cleanliness.

Due to the lower than normal tourism levels I stayed at the Grand Beach resort and got a 1 BR condo for under $100 including resort fee.

 

[mikejs78]

That would make sense if Tower had a 20 minute wait.

You do realize that Disney wait times aren't accurate? It's fairly common for two rides to have the same posted wait time and wildly different actual waits.

For example, both Slinky and Tower could have 60 min posted waits, but Slinky be an actual 45 min wait and Tower an actual 30 minute wait.

This is common.

Actually a good question for @lentesta - how much does the delta between posted and actual waits vary across attractions, and how consistent is it for a given attraction from day to day?

 

[flynnibus]

Actually a good question for @lentesta - how much does the delta between posted and actual waits vary across attractions?

You can see it in TP's charts - they plot posted vs observed.

It's not just how much they exaggerate a wait -- there would be other factors controlling a posted wait time like they may have a minimum wait they want to post, or they may have a number they want to post to encourage behavior at a certain time, etc.

It's not going to be just based on actual wait time.

 

[mikejs78]

You can see it in TP's charts - they plot posted vs observed.

It's not just how much they exaggerate a wait -- there would be other factors controlling a posted wait time like they may have a minimum wait they want to post, or they may have a number they want to post to encourage behavior at a certain time, etc.

It's not going to be just based on actual wait time.

My larger point is though that you can't necessarily even compare posted waits between Rise and Tower, because the actual waits may be completely different between the two attractions.

 

[flynnibus]

My larger point is though that you can't necessarily even compare posted waits between Rise and Tower, because the actual waits may be completely different between the two attractions.

And that's where TP data comes in handy - two data points of the same type.

But to where this came from... it's a fallacy to equate demand based on posted waits. Different capacity, different operations, all impact capacity... which directly impacts wait times. And the system works VERY differently at it's minimums vs how the system works under higher loads.

Meanwhile, everyone is still talking about wait times and demand for the attraction as a whole.. when observing the quietest time of year... which is dumb.

It's like comparing sports car performance by listening to how they rev in neutral.

 

[disneygeek90]

I got in line around 7pm last night. Shortly after it re-opened from being down for over an hour. Posted wait was 70 minutes, it took 40 to get to the first pre-show and just under an hour to complete the ride.

 

[lentesta]

And that's where TP data comes in handy - two data points of the same type.

But to where this came from... it's a fallacy to equate demand based on posted waits. Different capacity, different operations, all impact capacity... which directly impacts wait times. And the system works VERY differently at it's minimums vs how the system works under higher loads.

I'd hesitate to compare two attractions based on posted wait time. I don't think Disney's posted waits are accurate enough for that.

The posted waits are inaccurate enough that even if I told you exactly how many people are in line for Buzz Lightyear, and Buzz Lightyear's hourly capacity, you couldn't predict the number on the wait-time sign to within 40% either way.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

You do realize that Disney wait times aren't accurate? It's fairly common for two rides to have the same posted wait time and wildly different actual waits.

For example, both Slinky and Tower could have 60 min posted waits, but Slinky be an actual 45 min wait and Tower an actual 30 minute wait.

This is common.

Actually a good question for @lentesta - how much does the delta between posted and actual waits vary across attractions, and how consistent is it for a given attraction from day to day?

Disney wait times aren't precise, that doesn't mean they're useless. It is still *generally* true that a posted 60 minute wait means a longer actual wait than a posted 30 minute wait, even if neither one is exactly 60 or 30 minutes.

Also, yesterday's conspiracy theory was that they were artificially inflating the wait time for Rise of the Resistance to pump up future IAS sales. Now the conspiracy theory is that they're artificially suppressing the wait time for Rise of the Resistance because... why exactly?

 

[flynnibus]

Now the conspiracy theory is that they're artificially suppressing the wait time for Rise of the Resistance because... why exactly?

WUT?

What thread are you reading?

 

[mikejs78]

Disney wait times aren't precise, that doesn't mean they're useless. It is still *generally* true that a posted 60 minute wait means a longer actual wait than a posted 30 minute wait, even if neither one is exactly 60 or 30 minutes.

Also, yesterday's conspiracy theory was that they were artificially inflating the wait time for Rise of the Resistance to pump up future IAS sales. Now the conspiracy theory is that they're artificially suppressing the wait time for Rise of the Resistance because... why exactly?

I'm not saying that there's a conspiracy theory either way - I'm just saying, and there's data to back this up, that their wait times are highly inaccurate. Not just impercise. I don't know if they are manipulating things by posting different wait times or just operators are taking their best guess and off and wrong, it doesn't matter. The history just shows that wait times can be wildly off by different margins for different attractions, as much as 50% off.

For example, if you look at TP's Lines app right now for DHS, Midway Mania has a posted 45 minute wait and an expected actual 29 minute wait, while Slinky Dog has a posted 55 minute wait and expected 31 min actual wait - 10 min difference in posted wait but only 2 min difference in expected actual wait. Smugglers run, on the other hand has a posted 40 min wait, but an expected actual wait of 35 minutes - lower posted wait than the other two, but higher estimated actual wait.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I'm not saying that there's a conspiracy theory either way - I'm just saying, and there's data to back this up, that their wait times are highly inaccurate. Not just impercise. I don't know if they are manipulating things by posting different wait times or just operators are taking their best guess and off and wrong, it doesn't matter. The history just shows that wait times can be wildly off by different margins for different attractions, as much as 50% off.

For example, if you look at TP's Lines app right now for DHS, Midway Mania has a posted 45 minute wait and an expected actual 29 minute wait, while Slinky Dog has a posted 55 minute wait and expected 31 min actual wait - 10 min difference in posted wait but only 2 min difference in expected actual wait. Smugglers run, on the other hand has a posted 40 min wait, but an expected actual wait of 35 minutes - lower posted wait than the other two, but higher estimated actual wait.

In many cases, it's just stale data. They give you a timer ticket at 1:00 and you scan it at the ride vehicles at 1:50, so the ride registers a 50 minute wait at 1:50. But the wait isn't necessarily 50 minutes at 1:50, it was 50 minutes at 1:00.

In two trips during COVID, I haven't seen them using those timers at all, presumably as a health-and-safety measure. If they're not using the timers, then they're basically just guessing (which is what they do at rope drop when the line extends out of the queue and through the land).

The only time I suspect they actually lie about wait times is at park close, when they want people to leave.

 

[mikejs78]

In many cases, it's just stale data. They give you a timer ticket at 1:00 and you scan it at the ride vehicles at 1:50, so the ride registers a 50 minute wait at 1:50. But the wait isn't necessarily 50 minutes at 1:50, it was 50 minutes at 1:00.

In two trips during COVID, I haven't seen them using those timers at all, presumably as a health-and-safety measure. If they're not using the timers, then they're basically just guessing (which is what they do at rope drop when the line extends out of the queue and through the land).

The only time I suspect they actually lie about wait times is at park close, when they want people to leave.

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure they discontinued the use of those timers before covid - they have magic bands and such. Besides, it's kind of interesting that Disney who has full knowledge and control of their operations provides worse wait time estimates that an outside company who's just analyzing patterns that they see. Disney doesn't need those lanyards to set the wait times - It's all statistical data, unless they just have a really bad handle on what their crowd patterns are like.