Star Wars Ep. 9 Thread

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
More evidence Rians trilogy is not happening.

Does anyone really still believe that Rian will do a star wars trilogy at this point? If anyone was looking forward to it, I do feel bad. I'm not saying it to bash on Johnson either. If Kennedy had any real command of star wars, Rian would have never worked on a saga film. What she should have had him do was a stand alone new story. That way he could have started his own mythos. Gone in his own direction. Created characters the way he wanted. The sequel trilogy wasn't the right place to change direction.
 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
Premium Member
Third weekend estimate: $33.7 million (53.4% drop)

17-Day totals:

Force Awakens: $742 million
Rogue One: $425 million
Last Jedi: $517 million
Rise of the Skywalker: $450 million

Last Jedi and Rogue One made a little over $100 million each after their 17-day run for their final domestic total. That would suggest an approx. $550 million finish for Skywalker, roughly on par with what Rogue One did 3 years ago ($532 million).
Yikes
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Wow...everyone who thinks rian Johnson will ever be let into a room at LFL again looks beyond clueless...I weep for you.

As far as the thud goes...it was predictable - but not expected. Everything happening is understandable. The real life narrative of what has happened with Star Wars will be talked about for along time...

Mikejs78...I would feel bad for you...but you were so damn arrogant from December 20-29 on this thread I think it’s better we Bronze the thread and preserve it in a museum as a cautionary tale for children. It makes that Katiebug lady look “composed” in retrospect.

Want to hear the honest truth: good thing they released this when Christmas and New Years was on a Wednesday...because it only has what it has because the majority of the western world had many days off in the intial 2 weeks...
Without that...even in the summer...you could be looking at 30% lower total and this thing barely covering its production and marketing budget. And marketing was huge...3 month relentless push on all outlets.

I can’t quite figure out how to even encapsulate this...I thought it’d do $1.5 bil...even if it wasn’t good...I really did
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
It will be really interesting to see what the take was yesterday...

How hard did it flatline?

Total take is going to be $1.1 as the best case scenario...’maybe
 

Tony Perkis

Well-Known Member
Wow...everyone who thinks rian Johnson will ever be let into a room at LFL again looks beyond clueless...I weep for you.

As far as the thud goes...it was predictable - but not expected. Everything happening is understandable. The real life narrative of what has happened with Star Wars will be talked about for along time...

Mikejs78...I would feel bad for you...but you were so damn arrogant from December 20-29 on this thread I think it’s better we Bronze the thread and preserve it in a museum as a cautionary tale for children. It makes that Katiebug lady look “composed” in retrospect.

Want to hear the honest truth: good thing they released this when Christmas and New Years was on a Wednesday...because it only has what it has because the majority of the western world had many days off in the intial 2 weeks...
Without that...even in the summer...you could be looking at 30% lower total and this thing barely covering its production and marketing budget. And marketing was huge...3 month relentless push on all outlets.

I can’t quite figure out how to even encapsulate this...I thought it’d do $1.5 bil...even if it wasn’t good...I really did
What’s it like, being the Gatekeeper of a property nobody asked you to be?
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
What’s it like, being the Gatekeeper of a property nobody asked you to be?
If I were...I imagine it would feel similar to being proven brutally wrong In the “court of public money” (Disney’s court) for over two years defending the KK lead mangling of lucrative IP while being told by the more wise (on this topic) that this has smelled bad since damn near the start?

Or not
 

LSLS

Well-Known Member
Wow...everyone who thinks rian Johnson will ever be let into a room at LFL again looks beyond clueless...I weep for you.

As far as the thud goes...it was predictable - but not expected. Everything happening is understandable. The real life narrative of what has happened with Star Wars will be talked about for along time...

Mikejs78...I would feel bad for you...but you were so damn arrogant from December 20-29 on this thread I think it’s better we Bronze the thread and preserve it in a museum as a cautionary tale for children. It makes that Katiebug lady look “composed” in retrospect.

Want to hear the honest truth: good thing they released this when Christmas and New Years was on a Wednesday...because it only has what it has because the majority of the western world had many days off in the intial 2 weeks...
Without that...even in the summer...you could be looking at 30% lower total and this thing barely covering its production and marketing budget. And marketing was huge...3 month relentless push on all outlets.

I can’t quite figure out how to even encapsulate this...I thought it’d do $1.5 bil...even if it wasn’t good...I really did
I'm with you. I said from the beginning that anything under Last Jedi would convince me that there was some damage to the Star Wars franchise from the Last Jedi when you combine with all other evidence (again, I don't care if you think it's the greatest artistic movie of a generation, that doesn't matter in financial terms). I honestly didn't think the damage was as great as some and thought it would be $1.6 or so. The fact that it is a very real possibility this movie will not be a top 5 movie of 2019 (and pretty much guaranteed to not make the top 3) is just mind blowing to me.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I'm with you. I said from the beginning that anything under Last Jedi would convince me that there was some damage to the Star Wars franchise from the Last Jedi when you combine with all other evidence (again, I don't care if you think it's the greatest artistic movie of a generation, that doesn't matter in financial terms). I honestly didn't think the damage was as great as some and thought it would be $1.6 or so. The fact that it is a very real possibility this movie will not be a top 5 movie of 2019 (and pretty much guaranteed to not make the top 3) is just mind blowing to me.
whats insane is this:

so the current tally is $927 mil total worldwide gross....
the ticket sales have fallen off as any movie does after 3 weeks...but this one lost steam much quicker than anyone would have guessed for a star wars...
so it will start pulling in $1-$2.5 domestically on week days and if you follow suite - $15-18 total this coming weekend and $8-10 next. Then its officially done.

International is tougher...but it MORE weak than the domestic gross...and that's even more true than the typical star wars effect.

So break it down this way:

week of 1/6/20-1/13/20 - Total domestic of $25,000,0000 international $15,000,000
that's $ 970,000,000 total
week of 1/14/20 - 1/21/20 - total domestic of $18,000,000 international $8,000,000


that's $ 996,000,000


This will cross $1 billion....against a production budget and marketing cost that COMMON SENSE would put somewhere at the $750 mil range...


ummm...that's not good. I don't think catching rogue one is possible.
what am i missing?
 

LSLS

Well-Known Member
whats insane is this:

so the current tally is $927 mil total worldwide gross....
the ticket sales have fallen off as any movie does after 3 weeks...but this one lost steam much quicker than anyone would have guessed for a star wars...
so it will start pulling in $1-$2.5 domestically on week days and if you follow suite - $15-18 total this coming weekend and $8-10 next. Then its officially done.

International is tougher...but it MORE weak than the domestic gross...and that's even more true than the typical star wars effect.

So break it down this way:

week of 1/6/20-1/13/20 - Total domestic of $25,000,0000 international $15,000,000
that's $ 970,000,000 total
week of 1/14/20 - 1/21/20 - total domestic of $18,000,000 international $8,000,000


that's $ 996,000,000


This will cross $1 billion....against a production budget and marketing cost that COMMON SENSE would put somewhere at the $750 mil range...


ummm...that's not good. I don't think catching rogue one is possible.
what am i missing?
That it would need another $60 million to catch Aladdin for 8th place in 2019 (which is behind a rated R movie)? And nearly $200 million to get to the top 5 and knock Captain Marvel out.

Honestly, I haven't run any sort of analysis on my own to try to prove or disprove what you are saying, but if your estimates are even close to correct, it's not getting close to the top 5 movies. For the final Star Wars movie.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
“A problem”

“A problem part 2”
 

Mike S

Well-Known Member
“A problem”

“A problem part 2”
Good for 1917. Cant wait to see it.
 

The Real Buzz Lightyear

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
The more I think about this trilogy the more sad I get. It had such potential but thanks to not having a good leader like Kevin Fiege or map out a plan the trilogy fell apart. I still enjoy the force awakens and the rise of skywalker but they feel like such wasted potential. I hope Lucasfilm is learning from it's mistakes. Put Dave Filioni and Jon Faverau in charge!
 
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