Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

[Mr.Skunkape]

I also hate to say this but after riding PoC last week it may be in the worst shape that I have ever seen it in. And as a helpful hint do not sit in the front seat if you are in a full boat as you will get wet, we requested the rear seat the times we rode.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I talked with the CM working the TSMM FP ticket machine on the 19th and he claimed that the are only allotted 750 paper FP's per day.

Considering TSM handles about 1000-1200 guests per hour (depending on efficiency) and DHS is open for an average of perhaps 12 hours a day, allocating 750 paper FP's per day just, well, just stinks for anyone who isn't participating in FP+. I don't have any information whether that number is correct but, if accurate, that's only about 5-8% of capacity. Rather shocking since FP+ isn't even fully rolled out yet.

With 30,000 onsite rooms averaging about 3 guests per room and an occupancy rate of about 80%, do you think day guests will ever see a TSM FP+?

Keep dreaming.

With TSM eventually allocating somewhere around 75-80% of capacity to FP+, day guests are going to learn to hate FP+.

And be happy the Standby line gets anything. Some time ago, I heard about a plan being considered (now shelved) that would have made 20% capacity to the Standby line seem generous.

 

[GymLeaderPhil]

That information that you received from a TSMM CM may have been accurate. For that day. Each attraction has a specific allotment for each distribution hour that can be affected by any number of variables like vehicles running. FP+ has reached the point where it's booking out attractions earlier and there will be a day when the park opens with nothing of value.

You may ask why they aren't simply flipping the switch for all Guests to utilize the in-park kiosks/book online and disable the paper FP distribution. There's a number of factors such as:
-Paper tickets are still accepted for park entry. In-park kiosks only use RF media.
-Premiere Passports cannot be linked on MyDisneyExperience, usually.
-Swan and Dolphin contractual agreements. They are working on quick fix for this.
-Cast Members cannot use their complimentary media on MyDisneyExperience.

So Disney is stuck with a system that is still being fleshed out. Good luck to those visiting over the next couple of months.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Considering TSM handles about 1000-1200 guests per hour (depending on efficiency) and DHS is open for an average of perhaps 12 hours a day, allocating 750 paper FP's per day just, well, just stinks for anyone who isn't participating in FP+. I don't have any information whether that number is correct but, if accurate, that's only about 5-8% of capacity. Rather shocking since FP+ isn't even fully rolled out yet.

With 30,000 onsite rooms averaging about 3 guests per room and an occupancy rate of about 80%, do you think day guests will ever see a TSM FP+?

Keep dreaming.

With TSM eventually allocating somewhere around 75-80% of capacity to FP+, day guests are going to learn to hate FP+.

And be happy the Standby line gets anything. Some time ago, I heard about a plan being considered (now shelved) that would have made 20% capacity to the Standby line seem generous.

Someone needs to explain to me how those numbers work out. If 80% of the guests are going through the FP line, doesn't that make it almost worst then Standby? I like the 20% numbers for standby, I'd think the wait would be less then the FP line or at least as quick.

 

[unkadug]

Someone needs to explain to me how those numbers work out. If 80% of the guests are going through the FP line, doesn't that make it almost worst then Standby? I like the 20% numbers for standby, I'd think the wait would be less then the FP line or at least as quick.

In the days before fastpass there was nothing but standby...the lines moved quickly. As long as the crowd is evenly spaced out over the day there could still be no line to speak of as long as the number of guests doesn't outweigh the hourly throughput of the attraction.

 

[Goofyernmost]

In the days before fastpass there was nothing but standby...the lines moved quickly. As long as the crowd is evenly spaced out over the day there could still be no line to speak of as long as the number of guests doesn't outweigh the hourly throughput of the attraction.

Yes, I know, that's why I ask. If the crowds are larger now then they were back when there was no FP then I see a backup in the FP line. They are going to have to allow some though the standby line figured out via some ratio. I would think that 80% of todays crowd would be a bigger number then 100% of the pre-FP days. But when it was strictly standy, you could easily opt to just go to a different attraction if the line was too long. If you have a FP with a window, you are captive. I would think that the FP people have a better chance of being upset by it then Standby. Standby people will be expecting it to be like that and plan accordingly.

When FP first was introduced, I was told that only about 35% of the possible capacity was going to be issued FP's. Otherwise, how could they push that the wait would be a lot less. If you put close to 100% in the FP line, how is that going to make it with almost no wait. I must be missing something, but it just doesn't add up or seem logical.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Someone needs to explain to me how those numbers work out. If 80% of the guests are going through the FP line, doesn't that make it almost worst then Standby? I like the 20% numbers for standby, I'd think the wait would be less then the FP line or at least as quick.

A queue grows when demand exceeds supply.

For the sake of discussion, let's say that the Standby line was shut down completely. With 80% of capacity allocated to FP+, 20% of the ride's capacity would go unused. TSM would actually have empty seats.

Essentially, those in the Standby line fill empty seats not used by the FP/FP+ line. The Standby line grows because those in the FP/FP+ line receive preferential treatment.

Remember that Disney controls the exact number of FP/FP+ that are distributed. Unlike the Standby line that anyone can enter, Disney can determine the number of guests in the FP/FP+ line.

The reality is slightly more complicated. Because the return time is a one-hour window, there will be peaks and valleys. If only 80% of capacity was used with a one-hour return window, there would be times when the line grew modestly and times when it would be completely empty.

 

[unkadug]

A queue grows when demand exceeds supply.

For the sake of discussion, let's say that the Standby line was shut down completely. With 80% of capacity allocated to FP+, 20% of the ride's capacity would go unused. TSM would actually have empty seats.

Essentially, those in the Standby line fill empty seats not used by the FP/FP+ line. The Standby line longer because those in the FP/FP+ line receive preferential treatment.

Remember that Disney controls the exact number of FP/FP+ that are distributed. Unlike the Standby line that anyone can enter, Disney can determine the number of guests in the FP/FP+ line.

The reality is slightly more complicated. Because the return time is a one-hour window, there will be peaks and valleys. If only 80% of capacity was used with a one-hour return window, there would be times when the line grew modestly and times when it would be completely empty.

Good answer.

 

[GoofGoof]

A queue grows when demand exceeds supply.

For the sake of discussion, let's say that the Standby line was shut down completely. With 80% of capacity allocated to FP+, 20% of the ride's capacity would go unused. TSM would actually have empty seats.

Essentially, those in the Standby line fill empty seats not used by the FP/FP+ line. The Standby line grows because those in the FP/FP+ line receive preferential treatment.

Remember that Disney controls the exact number of FP/FP+ that are distributed. Unlike the Standby line that anyone can enter, Disney can determine the number of guests in the FP/FP+ line.

The reality is slightly more complicated. Because the return time is a one-hour window, there will be peaks and valleys. If only 80% of capacity was used with a one-hour return window, there would be times when the line grew modestly and times when it would be completely empty.

And the math gets more complicated when there are only 6 rides in a park and people try to ride the same ones over and over. Especially one with low capacity.

 

[unkadug]

And the math gets more complicated when there are only 6 rides in a park and people try to ride the same ones over and over. Especially one with low capacity.

But FP+ will prevent a lot of this reriding.

 

[GoofGoof]

But FP+ will prevent a lot of this reriding.

For TSM it will prevent any re-riding. If the ride capacity is 1,200 per hour for 12 hours that works out to less than 15,000 riders per day, but the average attendance exceeds that number. So for arguments sake lets say 20,000 people a day through the gates. Without any FP system 5,000 guests would automatically miss out. With standard FP it was possible to grab either multiple FPs per day or ride standby at rope drop and then ride FP later in the day if you wanted to. With FP+ probably closer to 14,000 riders will have reservations so there will be limited or no chance to ride again or ride standby at all.

 

[CDavid]

But FP+ will prevent a lot of this reriding.

Which inadvertently worsens another problem, that of artificially making even less to do in a park that already has far too few attractions. Instead of three rides on ToT and two on TSMM, if you get just one of each, for a total of two ride experiences instead of five.

Of course, guests are going to have plenty of time left to queue up at guest relations...

 

[culturenthrills]

They are in a HORRIBLE mood. It was not your imagination. They can only take so much nonsence from Disney. You think all the new fancy junk that is confusing guests and not working well looks any better from the view point of the cast? Disney like any large corporation, for good reason, has intricate policy and procedure change methods in place for safety. Some attractions have multiple policy and procedure changes every week now sometimes several in a week and often in one day. They come back after their days off and have to go through training before they can perform their duties. Constantly changing the way they

They are in a HORRIBLE mood. It was not your imagination. They can only take so much nonsence from Disney. You think all the new fancy junk that is confusing guests and not working well looks any better from the view point of the cast? Disney like any large corporation, for good reason, has intricate policy and procedure change methods in place for safety. Some attractions have multiple policy and procedure changes every week now sometimes several in a week and often in one day. They come back after their days off and have to go through training before they can perform their duties. Constantly changing the way they are expected to do their job. GR has added gangs of new folks to try to make things better for guests. WDW has had to add hundreds of other folks to work at the new FP + kiosks. Plus station GR people all over the place to try to restore normalcy to a guests vacation. The tecnology works about as well as if the government designed it.

I am local and most of my neighbors work at Disney and relate their experiences to me.

I have a friend who works in scheduling and it has been a nightmare filling all the shifts. People are working 60-70 hour weeks to cover all the new positions thanks to my magic -. He says cast morale has never been this low.

 

[JenniferS]

Yes, I know, that's why I ask. If the crowds are larger now then they were back when there was no FP then I see a backup in the FP line. They are going to have to allow some though the standby line figured out via some ratio.

When we were there earlier this month, CM's were letting ZERO stand-by riders through as long as there was a single FP+ rider waiting.
One time (forget which ride), the CM could see FP+ riders coming, but they weren't quite at the merge point yet, and he waved us through from Stand-by, almost like he was sneaking us on to the ride.

 

[Goofyernmost]

A queue grows when demand exceeds supply.

For the sake of discussion, let's say that the Standby line was shut down completely. With 80% of capacity allocated to FP+, 20% of the ride's capacity would go unused. TSM would actually have empty seats.

Essentially, those in the Standby line fill empty seats not used by the FP/FP+ line. The Standby line grows because those in the FP/FP+ line receive preferential treatment.

Remember that Disney controls the exact number of FP/FP+ that are distributed. Unlike the Standby line that anyone can enter, Disney can determine the number of guests in the FP/FP+ line.

The reality is slightly more complicated. Because the return time is a one-hour window, there will be peaks and valleys. If only 80% of capacity was used with a one-hour return window, there would be times when the line grew modestly and times when it would be completely empty.

OK, but it still doesn't add up. Is the figure based on 80% of what they allow in the line per hour, or is it linked to capacity. For example, if the ride capacity is 200 per hour and you set up that 80% of that will be issued FP's that means that 160 people will be in the FP line and 40 will theoretically be in the Standby line. But, as you say, there are two uncontrollables there. One is what part of the window that FP users show up in, and also how many people actually go into the Standby line. The one thing that doesn't change is the ride capacity per hour. That means that in order for the Standby line to be longer then the FP line more then the anticipated 20% needs to show up, but that still means that like pre-FP the FP line combined with the Standby line will equal 100% that can possibly get access.

If FP's are issued on a 5 minute update, then an hour is divided up into 12, 5 minute time starts. In a perfect situation that would mean that for a 200 capacity divided by 12 would equal 13 FP and 3 Standby could be eligible to enter the ride during that 5 minute time span. If no one shows up in FP then 16 standby could enter the ride. However, if people don't show up in the first 5 minutes then the FP crowd will be bunched up at later times. The ratio would still, to be fair, remain at the 80/20 originally planned so that no matter how many show up at FP, 13 to 3 ration would have to apply. That wouldn't help the standby line, but it would be worse for the FP line because they will bunch up in bigger numbers or at least equal numbers. Standby would still run slowly, but so would FP. However, in order to be fair they would have to allow per hour, at least 160 FP and 40 Standby. The ratio and therefore the speed of both lines will slow down from what was originally set up with the reversed ratio of 35% Fastpass and 65% Standby. Those with FP would almost assuredly load quickly and the standby line would move more. The other way around I don't see where anyone would be happy.

 

[Goofyernmost]

When we were there earlier this month, CM's were letting ZERO stand-by riders through as long as there was a single FP+ rider waiting.
One time (forget which ride), the CM could see FP+ riders coming, but they weren't quite at the merge point yet, and he waved us through from Stand-by, almost like he was sneaking us on to the ride.

Well, that is just damn wrong and will cost Disney in lost patronage if it continues to be a factor. I complained about fastpass when it first started and told them that this would be a nightmare over time for them. I am getting little enjoyment out of being right in this case.

 

[luv]

The line at Epcot's Guest Relations had about sixteen different groups of people waiting OUTSIDE the doors yesterday. I don't even know how many inside.

Never saw that before and wondered if it was the Magic Bands. (I don't know, though. I didn't go ask people why they were in line.)

 

[ParentsOf4]

Which inadvertently worsens another problem, that of artificially making even less to do in a park that already has far too few attractions. Instead of three rides on ToT and two on TSMM, if you get just one of each, for a total of two ride experiences instead of five.

Of course, guests are going to have plenty of time left to queue up at guest relations...

Before the advent of FP+, one of DHS's many problems was that guests would flood it in the morning hoping to get good FP return times.

With FP+, the return time has been selected by the guest. Even if many don't like it, guests will grab the 9-10 PM FP+ for TSM because that's the only thing left. As corporate Disney wants, those guests will plan their days around it. Maybe go to another park. Maybe sleep in. Maybe shop at DTD. Maybe hang out at the pool. The point is, rather than racing to the park in the morning with everyone else, those guests will plan on being at DHS later.

Unlike FP, FP+ return times start right from opening. That sucks because Standby lines will grow longer earlier. As a results, there will be less advantage to being at any WDW theme park for opening.

Between guests planning for late FP+ return times and guests having less of an advantage being there for rope drop, FP+ might more evenly distribute WDW's crowds throughout the day.

What Disney executives want onsite (especially Deluxe Resort) guests to start thinking is: "Morning, noon, or night; Standby lines suck. The only way to avoid them is to stay onsite longer to get more FP+ selections."

It's their dream. It's our nightmare.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Before the advent of FP+, one of DHS's many problems was that guests would flood it in the morning hoping to get good FP return times.

With FP+, the return time has been selected by the guest. Even if many don't like it, guests will grab the 9-10 PM FP+ for TSM because that's the only thing left. As corporate Disney wants, those guests will plan their days around it. Maybe go to another park. Maybe sleep in. Maybe shop at DTD. Maybe hang out at the pool. The point is, rather than racing to the park in the morning with everyone else, those guests will plan on being at DHS later.

Unlike FP, FP+ return times start right from opening. That sucks because Standby lines will grow longer earlier. As a results, there will be less advantage to being at any WDW theme park for opening.

Between guests planning for late FP+ return times and guests having less of an advantage being there for rope drop, FP+ might more evenly distribute WDW's crowds throughout the day.

What Disney executives want onsite (especially Deluxe Resort) guests to start thinking is: "Morning, noon, or night; Standby lines suck. The only way to avoid them is to stay onsite longer to get more FP+ selections."

It's their dream. It's our nightmare.

I just wish they would have spent $2B the old fashion way and increased the parks carrying capacity with more rides. As it stands, $2B later, the park is still woefully short in capacity. What is it with WDW and their stubborn insistence to refuse to build rides?

 

[GymLeaderPhil]

The line at Epcot's Guest Relations had about sixteen different groups of people waiting OUTSIDE the doors yesterday. I don't even know how many inside.

Never saw that before and wondered if it was the Magic Bands. (I don't know, though. I didn't go ask people why they were in line.)

It's been a daily thing at all of the Guest Relation locations. You have a perfect storm of:

DAS
MagicBands
FastPass+
Food and Wine at Epcot
MNSSHP at MK
And all the other hats the Cast in plaid already had on their plate...