Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

[Californian Elitist]

But they all about how standby is longer because of all those late FP returners

If you actually look at the root of why locals hate FP... these changes actually favor the locals for the large part. The problem is the locals about FP... only when it's them getting the short end of the stick. When it comes to gaming it for their advantage... talk about removing it and then FP touching FP is sacrilege.

Can't argue that. You're absolutely right.

 

[AEfx]

FP+ is a totally different beast. We're talking weeks and months, not minutes.

I want to choose to ride Splash Mountain an hour or so before actually doing so. With minimal queuing. Not weeks or months in advance.

That's why FP+ is a failure to my family.

Precisely.

I am a huge planner, and at first FP+ was the neatest thing about this to me.

But the more I thought about it, I realized - yeah, I want to plan around a special meal somewhere (even though in the "real world", the thought of booking a restaurant six months in advance would make most people laugh, because there are very few places on Earth that require that, and those that do usually cost the same for a meal as an entire Disney vacation). But a FP? For a specific time?

It's silly. It's going to be more hassle than it's worth. If you plan your day decently, even on busy days you can see the attractions without much wait (I never wait more than 15 minutes for ANYTHING yet I see everything on my trips).

I just see so much potential waste in them - either having to waste time backtracking or planning to be at the attraction in that window you picked WEEKS or MONTHS before. And having a FP for something like Splash - but since it's raining a bit (which happens most days) there isn't much of a wait anyway and you didn't even need the FP. And a lot of times, particularly in the slower times of the year, you can get a FP all day at all but a few attractions that is only an 30-60 minutes out while you go do something else in the area, any way.

I mean, people already complain about FP windows and having to plan on the same DAY. This is one of those "Disney Moms" things where if you ask a group of people in a panel "Would you like FP online early?" I'm sure they freaked out with enthusiasm. But to the average guest - just getting one in the morning for the afternoon is a chore. Like I said, I am a super-super planner - but even I don't know exactly what park I am going to be in that day until the night before, because while I have the options laid out in my itinerary (which I spend a lot of time developing before I go), there are so many conditions that happen on the trip that you simply cannot be that rigid and still enjoy things to their fullest without being flexible while on the trip.

That's the whole concept here - every bit of this was to cater to what the most drunk on the Kool-Aid said in focus groups - when in this case, even those in the groups don't know what they want in reality. If you ask a little kid "Hey do you want to eat a gallon of ice cream???" they are going to say "YAY! MY DREAM COME TRUE!" until they are sick for the next day because they ate half of it and realized that yes, there is such a thing as too much ice cream. They want to plan minute to minute (and yet again, I understand! me too!) but the world doesn't work that way - nor the World, and if you try to make it - you end up ruining everyone elses time.

 

[Tim_4]

FP+ is a totally different beast. We're talking weeks and months, not minutes.

I want to choose to ride Splash Mountain an hour or so before actually doing so. With minimal queuing. Not weeks or months in advance.

That's why FP+ is a failure to my family.

You talk about minimal queuing but if you add the time it takes you to walk from wherever your family happens to be in the park to pick up your Fastpass, return to wherever your family has gotten to, and then go back to Splash in your Fastpass window, you aren't actually saving any "queue time," you're just converting it to "walking back and forth" time.

 

[flynnibus]

You are wrong.

There was a period of time where people were consistently angry about this change. You don't work in the park or know many that do, so don't respond with your usual nonsense about how you are right.

The staff get yelled at either way. Anytime there is a restriction there will be some that no matter how fair something is or not.

Go back through the community posts about trips since the change - it's rarely even mentioned. Yet prior people acted before like Disney was stealing their first born

 

[bubbles1812]

You talk about minimal queuing but if you add the time it takes you to walk from wherever your family happens to be in the park to pick up your Fastpass, return to wherever your family has gotten to, and then go back to Splash in your Fastpass window, you aren't actually saving any "queue time," you're just converting it to "walking back and forth" time.

You must assume people walk extremely slowly. I sure as heck save queue time even if I'm traipsing full across the park (which rarely happens... I'm doing other rides in the general vicinity usually... Time which otherwise would have been spent in a queue). I think people totally overestimate the time it takes to walk the parks. For instance, it's really no more than 5 minutes from Soarin' to Test Track. The way some talk about it, you'd think they'd had to go on a week long journey in the wilderness. And no, I'm not one of those "sprinters" before you make that assumption. I walk, at a good pace, but it isn't even a sprint or power walk.

 

[Goofyernmost]

I cede your point on WDW only. Disney P&R is developing NGE as a strategic asset that will give Disney a strategic advantage over competitors. Since NGE is a strategic asset designed for use in all Disney parks, then all Disney parks are exposed to the strategic liability of NGE. As for application to parks outside Disney, why would Disney want to cede strategic advantage to their competition?

I know it will help Disney but I don't think it really amounts to much more then an updated technological base business system. It really in the long run will not help draw people into the parks and it will not be something that automatically will increase spending after the novelty wears off, at least not in any deceptive way, if you understand how retail and service industries work. I don't see it as a strategic advantage once it is up and running. They will have spent a lot of money to implement this and even if part of the Magic Bands functions was to physically reach into your pocket and take out your cash, they can never recoup that much. In my opinion the only way to recoup the investment is to sell the system, not the information that they have gleaned from it, just the operating system. They only way I have to compare it is like Microsoft or Quicken. They design and own the system and if it does all the magical things that they intended it to do, they will have other companies that don't want to spend 2 billion on it...ready to buy it from Disney. That is how Disney will get their money back and why they are not seeming to be overly concerned about what it is costing right now. If it works, worst case scenario is that they get there own system paid for by outsiders and doing that still put them at a strategic advantage.

Once again, understand, that this is just my theory. I have not read any secret files and I am only using my personal sense to come to that conclusion. But let's put it this way...I will not be surprised if this is how it ends up.

 

[flynnibus]

FP+ is a totally different beast. We're talking weeks and months, not minutes.

I want to choose to ride Splash Mountain an hour or so before actually doing so. With minimal queuing. Not weeks or months in advance.

That's why FP+ is a failure to my family.

I appreciate that- but I don't see how that connects with the demographic being put forth by raven. This is the same group complaining fp was the devil because the idea of a return time didn't fit their visiting style or that lines were all long because people got fps hours before they were even in the park. Changes to the system actually mitigate much of that. Or you could desire no fp at all to fit your model.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Sure, and they will adjust, just like people adjusted once FP came out in the first place. I think it's a valid point that if people could make FP+ reservations at DLR there would be a lot of complaining when it was introduced -- but might eventually be embraced (as FP has been) once people learn how to "game the system" to maximize the benefits.

The difference is that when FP was introduced almost no one complained about it. In fact, I was one of the few and they went to the trouble to call me at home to ask me direct questions about why I thought it was a lousy idea. They spent over an hour on the phone with me, asking questions and at least acting like they were interested. I hope they kept their notes because what has been happening over the last few years was predicted a number of years ago.

 

[flynnibus]

You must assume people walk extremely slowly. I sure as heck save queue time even if I'm traipsing full across the park (which rarely happens... I'm doing other rides in the general vicinity usually... Time which otherwise would have been spent in a queue). I think people totally overestimate the time it takes to walk the parks. For instance, it's really no more than 5 minutes from Soarin' to Test Track. The way some talk about it, you'd think they'd had to go on a week long journey in the wilderness. And no, I'm not one of those "sprinters" before you make that assumption. I walk, at a good pace, but it isn't even a sprint or power walk.

The complaints about having to cross the park and then find return times was brought up by people before the new tools. Just search back posts from below20k or whatever his handle is for prime examples. Petty or not... People were crying over it for how Disney should change fp

 

[Californian Elitist]

But they all about how standby is longer because of all those late FP returners

If you actually look at the root of why locals hate FP... these changes actually favor the locals for the large part. The problem is the locals about FP... only when it's them getting the short end of the stick. When it comes to gaming it for their advantage... talk about removing it and then FP touching FP is sacrilege.

I forgot to mention, the DLR audience tends to and moan about ANYTHING that has them getting the shorter end of the stick, not just FPs. It can be irritating.

 

[flynnibus]

Why oh why do people keep believing the meme that RFID can only be read at short range, The battery powered RFID transponders all they do is allow the RFID sensor to be smaller,

The passive RFID like what is used for Florida's SunPass systems can be reliably read at 100' with 15 year old tech. Same system is used at many subscription based parking garages that 'sticker' actually contains an RFID chip and antenna

Because if you build a system to be read at range it will be better at that... And if you don't you have constraints. Sun pass uses a large antenna that must be relatively uninstructed.

Make the antenna a square cm or so and see how performance changes.

And nubs70 - the speed is really irrelevant to the radio side... That is more about how quickly they can process the transaction.

The delay in the radio side is dealing with em waves... Speed of light stuff

 

[HMF]

I want to make my stance on NGE clear. I have no issue with updating the Show Infrastructure. In fact I applaud it and consider it a good investment. Fastpass+ is going to fail spectacularly and the fact that anyone thought it was a good idea baffles me. The Magic Bands would be a good idea if (and this is a big "IF") it was only used as a convenient way to access the park rather than being the RFID-encoded Orwellian tracking device that they are making it. Remove Fastpass + and RFID and I might actually warm up to this juggernaut.

 

[Nubs70]

I know it will help Disney but I don't think it really amounts to much more then an updated technological base business system. It really in the long run will not help draw people into the parks and it will not be something that automatically will increase spending after the novelty wears off, at least not in any deceptive way, if you understand how retail and service industries work. I don't see it as a strategic advantage once it is up and running. They will have spent a lot of money to implement this and even if part of the Magic Bands functions was to physically reach into your pocket and take out your cash, they can never recoup that much. In my opinion the only way to recoup the investment is to sell the system, not the information that they have gleaned from it, just the operating system. They only way I have to compare it is like Microsoft or Quicken. They design and own the system and if it does all the magical things that they intended it to do, they will have other companies that don't want to spend 2 billion on it...ready to buy it from Disney. That is how Disney will get their money back and why they are not seeming to be overly concerned about what it is costing right now. If it works, worst case scenario is that they get there own system paid for by outsiders and doing that still put them at a strategic advantage.

Once again, understand, the this is just my theory. I have not read any secret files and I am only using my personal sense to come to that conclusion. But let's put it this way...I will not be surprised if this is how it ends up.

Thanks for your thoughts.

I see NGE, as described in the movie division verbiage, as a "tent pole" project. A high investment/high return investment with substantially high risk. If it works, great. If it fails, it will do substantial damage to the brand from which recovery would be difficult.

 

[AEfx]

You talk about minimal queuing but if you add the time it takes you to walk from wherever your family happens to be in the park to pick up your Fastpass, return to wherever your family has gotten to, and then go back to Splash in your Fastpass window, you aren't actually saving any "queue time," you're just converting it to "walking back and forth" time.

Well, that's why some planning is good. FLEXIBLE planning. And logical thinking.

There are several things in the immediate area of Splash Mountain. So first thing you do when you get to that area, you go grab a FP. In all but the busiest times of year, they are an hour or so out.

In an hour, you can go grab lunch at Pecos Bills, you go ride the Haunted Mansion (a short walk round the water front), go see the Hall of Presidents (same), go through the biggest concentration of shops outside of Main Street in Frontierland/Liberty Square - and actually, Pirates is pretty much around the corner the other direction, too.

Now, if you are at Buzz Lightyear, walk all the way to Splash Mountain to get a FP, then go back to Space Mountain - yeah, that is "walking back and forth time". And silly.

But it really doesn't take a genius (or even any real pre-planning) to grab a free park map from your back pocket, look at it, realize where the "big attractions" are, and plan to enjoy other things in the vicinity. Even ignoring the "lands", there are essentially only 3 zones in the MK where everything is within a short walk of anything. Fantasyland/Tomorrowland, Frontierland/Liberty Square/Adventureland, Main Street/Hub. And most of them overlap. Particularly the Frontierland/Liberty Square/Adventureland, where there are so many passages from one side to another through short paths or open buildings.

The Studio's are pretty much the same (there is really only two hot spots there). AK, too - though definitely more walking there but also far fewer attractions you need FP on (and most are on one side of the park, at least). Epcot - yeah, if you are in American Adventure and go get a FP to test track and then go back to WS - that's just idiotic.

FP+ doesn't help this, just makes it worse - because at least an hour, or even a few hours in advance, you can look at a map and decide what to do in the meantime. With a FP+, you have to plan out the entire day months in advance and cannot change on the fly to accommodate for the dozens of things that may come up. You become that "Disney Nazi" everyone hates - "We must proceed to Splash Mountain now because our FP window is in 37 minutes..." with zero flexibility and having to determine what park, and what exact location you are going to be in the park, in a short window WEEKS or MONTHS in advance.

If someone cannot manage to pre-plan getting FastPasses already same day in an order which makes sense and isn't walking across the park back and forth endlessly, this new system is definitely not going to help them AT ALL. Just make it even worse for them, because they either will waste them and not actually use them or they will be handicapping their entire vacation around a few select attractions they could see anyway with minimal thought on the day of.

Besides, it's not like we have Harry Potter or Transformers or any new rides that people really see as showstoppers anyway. The biggest wait at WDW is for TSM, which one can reasonably replicate in their homes with a few wheeled office chairs and the Wii version of the game. The only reason it has those waits is because there is so little for the audience that ride attracts in the park it resides in. Very little else is that popular unless you are there on spring break or a holiday - and if someone isn't competent enough to know that if your goal is to see the most attractions doesn't know you go any time BUT those times in the year, something tells me FP+ isn't gonna save them, either.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Thanks for your thoughts.

I see NGE, as described in the movie division verbiage, as a "tent pole" project. A high investment/high return investment with substantially high risk. If it works, great. If it fails, it will do substantial damage to the brand from which recovery would be difficult.

As I said before...in this case, Failure is not an option. It would spell disaster for the company as a whole, not just the brand.

 

[Nubs70]

As I said before...in this case, Failure is not an option. It would spell disaster for the company as a whole, not just the brand.

To which I agree. But then again, "that o-ring will hold", said the NASA manager.

 

[GoofGoof]

I want to make my stance on NGE clear. I have no issue with updating the Show Infrastructure. In fact I applaud it and consider it a good investment. Fastpass+ is going to fail spectacularly and the fact that anyone thought it was a good idea baffles me. The Magic Bands would be a good idea if (and this is a big "IF") it was only used as a convenient way to access the park rather than being the RFID-encoded Orwellian tracking device that they are making it. Remove Fastpass + and RFID and I might actually warm up to this juggernaut.

I'm in agreement with most of this. The tracking is absolutely not going anywhere but they could certainly tweak FP+ in many ways. IMHO if FP+ is as unpopular to the general public as it is on this board it will be altered at some point. The most logical move would be to hold back some reservations for the day of. I think doing that will help to lessen the impact to those who don't want to plan ahead. Again, just my opinion. I have seen nothing to indicate this is actually planned right now.

 

[ford91exploder]

To which I agree. But then again, "that o-ring will hold", said the NASA manager.

And all the NASA engineers said it would not and were ignored..., Leading to tragedy and Richard Feynmann's famous O-ring in his glass of icewater where it promptly failed and broke.

But this also brought to thefore NASA's dysfunctional management culture a mere Rocket Scientist telling his better a MANAGER that Manager was about to make a fatal engineering mistake on a 'Criticality 1 system which scientist designed' was a 'Career Limiting Move'.

Looks like that spirit is alive and well at WDW

 

[wogwog]

Here's how I see the pricing advantages Disney will have with this project. Disney's current pricing strategy is similar to a department store jewelry counter. There is an artificially inflated listed price but they always have sales. Occasionally some people actually pay full price but most pay a sale price (for Macy's its a percent off sale on jewelry with WDW its hotel discounts, multiday passes, free dining). In this example you always wait to get the Macy's add in the mail around Christmas time to buy your wife some jewelry at 70% off. As soon as you get the flyer you go to Macy's to shop. I run into you there. I don't even read my adds I get in the mail but I need a last minute gift for my wife so I went to Macy's too. We both buy the same earrings for 70% off the list price. Now Macy's is thinking "I wish we had a system where we could offer @ParentsOf4 a 70% discount since that's the only reason he comes here but not have to offer it to @GoofGoof since he would have paid full price". In comes the datamining associate with MyMagic. Disney will actually have the ability to offer discounts only to those who they feel will only buy with the discount.

I think we agree on this point. The question is do you consider this a loyalty program? In the traditional sense it's not. A loyalty program rewards frequent purchasers/visitors no matter what they would be willing to spend. The example above only rewards you if the data says you need that extra push to buy. A pixie dust addict won't get as many rewards as a less addicted guest in theory since they would be buying anyway. Where the loyalty does come in to some extent is they will be able to identify the guests who not just come back every year, but those that spend the most while on property.

Here's another way to look at it. As you pointed out the AP holders and regulars are all being squeezed. They are all lumped in as one big group for discounting. Now if you identify an AP holder who doesn't buy much in terms of merchandise and doesn't eat a lot of meals in the parks as a less desirable customer you can offer them next to nothing. If you loose them no big deal. However, some AP holders are dust addicts. They still spend a ton on merchandise and eat at character meals and restaurants all of the time. These guests will be flagged as important and still get some offers to keep them loyal. While its not at all a loyalty program for the first set of guests it is for the second set. The loyalty will now be judged in terms of maximum cash spent not frequency of return visits.

Excellent example. It will allow a giant expansion and refinement for Disney of the "secret pin code" process already in place. Draw your shades and turn out the lights goofGoof, you have figured out one of the many layers of intrusion coming. The MM minus folks will be watching you.

 

[GoofGoof]

A couple of thoughts on why or whether the government would be involved in or interested in this project. My gut feeling is that the NSA (or any other government agency) is not directly funding this project. The Chinese government is also not likely to be funding it. Since I have no inside info I can't say I know any of this for sure. Just an opinion based on available info.

To those saying "why would the government care about what I'm doing at WDW" you are missing the point. They wouldn't care. The government's interest would be in the technology not the data. In this case I could see them having interest in the predictive behavior side of the software a lot more than the tracking technology and the bands. The intelligence community is very interested in profiling people and attempting to predict their future behavior. If they had a large database of various behaviors of citizens (maybe say based on phone calls and emails) they would want to be able to analyze the past behaviors of known "bad guys" and attempt to develop a profile. Common actions create a red flag and when someone takes those actions they get added to some kind of watch list or something. The Disney system is likely to have some pretty powerful predictive behavior software that will be using a much larger and more complex data set then has ever been tried in the past. I can't see how the government would not be interested in this.