Say.... What if Avatarland got cancelled?

[Lee]

A point or two:

I am aware of Jim's communication with Disney in regards to Avatar. The response can be looked at in two ways.

First, it is the only response they could give. They do not want this coming up at the shareholders meeting. Answering such a question could put them into a possibly very precarious position. Not only from a PR standpoint, but there could be legal ramifications as well.
If word is to ever officially come out that this project is dead it won't be via Jim's site. It'll come through an official, carefully worded release.

Second, the statement is, as of right now, correct.
The project has not been cancelled. It may be at some point soon, but not yet.
I'm hearing it described as being at sort of a "stalemate" over a few issues. It may all eventually get sorted out....but there is at least an equal chance that it won't.

No offense to Jim at all, but I've learned to listen less to the official line, and more to people in the trenches. There is always some spin, but after a while you can learn to "read it."

 

[PirateFrank]

Like we said earlier in the thread, Waterworld turned a profit eventually. It's still regarded as a costly flop. There is no way a $250 million dollar movie has a $30 million dollar opening and walks away being seen as anything other than a bomb.

I read that they need $400M to break even on John Carter. What's the correct number?

 

[Captain Neo]

Some Disney movies, yes. The Disney parks? A fat NO. The parks are designed for all ages and if Walt himself wasn't "too old" to enjoy his parks attraction himself, and he was nearly double my age, we are not either.

But there is a HUGE difference between just being young at heart and being...well, different and at least borderline weird. And if you don't understand the difference, it's useless to continue.

Disneyland is for adults. WDW is for the young-in's. That's why Disney always focuses on WDW (particularly Magic Kingdom) in all their marketing campaigns. Replacing attractions with tons of Meet & greets wouldn't fly in California for example.

 

[lebeau]

I read that they need $400M to break even on John Carter. What's the correct number?

$250 is the reported production budget. Factor in everything else and $400 million to break even sounds right.

 

[Captain Neo]

Seems like if Avatar land gets cancelled it's you guys (the fans) who will loose. It's not like Disney is going to use the same kind of funding that they would have thrown at Avatar into something else. So if your thinking "yesss Avatar is cancelled now we get Mysterious Island!!!" you are horribly mistaken.

 

[devoy1701]

Disneyland is for adults. WDW is for the young-in's. That's why Disney always focuses on WDW (particularly Magic Kingdom) in all their marketing campaigns. Replacing attractions with tons of Meet & greets wouldn't fly in California for example.

seriously?

 

[RSoxNo1]

I'm not meaning to be snarky here...but he has? For the life of me I can't think of one thing he's ever reported on that's come true.

Al Lutz? Yea, that guy breaks rumors/stories. Jim Hill? I dunno.

As far as I know, the major stuff that Jim has put out there that hasn't come true has been verified by others as "true at one time". That sort of thing happens, but Lee addresses a concern in his post that I'll address later.

As for recent things that Jim has been correct on - Seven Dwarf's Mine Train taking the place of the chateaus, and C3PO as the pilot on Star Tours: The Adventures Continue.

Iger wants Pandora done...and when a CEO wants something done (even if everyone else around them tells them it's not a good idea) it will take a long time for the CEO to admit defeat on the project.

Disney will never publically acknowledge that the project is in trouble or dead, and if asked directly they will of course say everything is fine. The would rather people just forget so they can put the idea on a shelf in the archives...that is if anything has been drawn up at this point.

The problem is the time frame of Avatar may be after Iger has left the company - his passion for it may have shifted at that point.

A point or two:

I am aware of Jim's communication with Disney in regards to Avatar. The response can be looked at in two ways.

First, it is the only response they could give. They do not want this coming up at the shareholders meeting. Answering such a question could put them into a possibly very precarious position. Not only from a PR standpoint, but there could be legal ramifications as well.
If word is to ever officially come out that this project is dead it won't be via Jim's site. It'll come through an official, carefully worded release.

Second, the statement is, as of right now, correct.
The project has not been cancelled. It may be at some point soon, but not yet.
I'm hearing it described as being at sort of a "stalemate" over a few issues. It may all eventually get sorted out....but there is at least an equal chance that it won't.

No offense to Jim at all, but I've learned to listen less to the official line, and more to people in the trenches. There is always some spin, but after a while you can learn to "read it."

I have been a defender of Jim for a while, but one thing people need to understand is context. In the John Carter article he explicitely says the following:

Well, don't believe the rumors, folks. I reached out this past Thursday night to (Sorry. I'm not allowed to give you this person's name), a VP of Communications for Disney Parks and Resorts, and flat-out asked him/her about these "World of Avatar" cancellation stories. What I was told was that this rumor-that's-currently-making-the-rounds is untrue. "It's a bad story, Jim," my source told me. "Don't believe it."

He listed his source, and all he's doing is passing along information. The source of the information is really what's being questioned here. It's highly unlikely that a VP of Communications for Parks and Resorts will go on record saying that Avatarland is on life support. That just doesn't happen in a company like Disney.

I think Jim has done a better job lately of identifying the sources of some of these rumors to allow for people to put them in context.

Consider that just last week in the Save Pleasure Island blog the author suggested an "example" of a possible new theme for Pleasure Island, and then so many people ran with it as if it was something being considered. We need to be able to have some level of reading comprehension in order to understand some of this information.

 

[lebeau]

I have been a defender of Jim for a while, but one thing people need to understand is context. In the John Carter article he explicitely says the following:

Well, don't believe the rumors, folks. I reached out this past Thursday night to (Sorry. I'm not allowed to give you this person's name), a VP of Communications for Disney Parks and Resorts, and flat-out asked him/her about these "World of Avatar" cancellation stories. What I was told was that this rumor-that's-currently-making-the-rounds is untrue. "It's a bad story, Jim," my source told me. "Don't believe it."

He listed his source, and all he's doing is passing along information. The source of the information is really what's being questioned here. It's highly unlikely that a VP of Communications for Parks and Resorts will go on record saying that Avatarland is on life support. That just doesn't happen in a company like Disney.

I think Jim has done a better job lately of identifying the sources of some of these rumors to allow for people to put them in context.

Yeah, but look at the rest of the context. Jim lays it out there like the VP of Communications has squashed this rumor rather than just fed him a company line (which he obviously did).

Fine to say, he spoke to a VP of Communications who denied the rumor. But don't say, "don't believe the rumor, folks" as though that denial is proof of anything.

 

[MAF]

God this idea was a...

from the start. Just a knee jerk reaction to try to combat Harry Potter.

 

[Bolna]

Seems like if Avatar land gets cancelled it's you guys (the fans) who will loose. It's not like Disney is going to use the same kind of funding that they would have thrown at Avatar into something else. So if your thinking "yesss Avatar is cancelled now we get Mysterious Island!!!" you are horribly mistaken.

Well, sometimes it might be better if a huge mistake does not get built at all. Once you have it there we will have to live with it for a very long time. Look at the Walt Disney Studios Paris: While there are a few nice (or even very good attractions) that whole park is a mess - and I have no idea how they will ever turn this into a truly enjoyable place. Maybe it would have been better if it had never been built. Then there would still exist the possibility of a second park which would be able to stand next to the beautiful Disneyland Paris without having to be ashamed of itself.

So even if no Avatarland might mean nothing new for AK for the next ten years, it still leaves the possibility open for something better being built after those ten years.

 

[Lee]

He listed his source, and all he's doing is passing along information. The source of the information is really what's being questioned here. It's highly unlikely that a VP of Communications for Parks and Resorts will go on record saying that Avatarland is on life support. That just doesn't happen in a company like Disney.

Yep.
My point exactly. I know who he spoke to. The response he got is exactly what should be expected, factually accurate or not.

 

[PirateFrank]

$250 is the reported production budget. Factor in everything else and $400 million to break even sounds right.

Ah ok, that does make sense....although this article is now saying $600M.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ishtar-lands-mars-163104773.html

 

[Bolna]

I don't question that he's able to get some info. But he's clearly being used. Thus the backflips on xPass. I expect him to tow the "all is well" company line on stuff like Avatar because that's what they are gonna feed him. Until they stop feeding that to him and he flip flops.

I think that is a pretty good analysis, but I am not so sure on "being used" is the correct term. I think it is more a case of agreeing to be used in exchange for something - possibly access which he did not have in the past, considering that he was once persona non grata in Disneyland.

I have been a defender of Jim for a while, but one thing people need to understand is context. In the John Carter article he explicitely says the following:

Well, don't believe the rumors, folks. I reached out this past Thursday night to (Sorry. I'm not allowed to give you this person's name), a VP of Communications for Disney Parks and Resorts, and flat-out asked him/her about these "World of Avatar" cancellation stories. What I was told was that this rumor-that's-currently-making-the-rounds is untrue. "It's a bad story, Jim," my source told me. "Don't believe it."

He listed his source, and all he's doing is passing along information. The source of the information is really what's being questioned here. It's highly unlikely that a VP of Communications for Parks and Resorts will go on record saying that Avatarland is on life support. That just doesn't happen in a company like Disney.

I think Jim has done a better job lately of identifying the sources of some of these rumors to allow for people to put them in context.

Well, first of all he did not only pass along information: he commented on it - in the very first sentence of that paragraph you quoted: "Well, I don't believe the rumors, folks."

There he said: I believe what my source says. He did not leave it open for everyone to draw their own conclusions whether a VP of Communications would give an honest answer to the question asked.

And even if he were just putting out the info, I would still wonder about his judgement. Because, as you say, the source of the information is highly questionable. And I would expect someone dealing in information to actually use reliable sources and not ones which I don't trust.

This is an excellent example of Disney trying to play with the bloggers - and him letting them play with him. That's exactly Disney's Social Media "strategy" you see at play here.

 

[Captain Neo]

Well, sometimes it might be better if a huge mistake does not get built at all. Once you have it there we will have to live with it for a very long time. Look at the Walt Disney Studios Paris: While there are a few nice (or even very good attractions) that whole park is a mess - and I have no idea how they will ever turn this into a truly enjoyable place. Maybe it would have been better if it had never been built. Then there would still exist the possibility of a second park which would be able to stand next to the beautiful Disneyland Paris without having to be ashamed of itself.

So even if no Avatarland might mean nothing new for AK for the next ten years, it still leaves the possibility open for something better being built after those ten years.

huh is it a huge mistake? It meshes with Animal Kingdom incredibly well

 

[Bolna]

huh is it a huge mistake? It meshes with Animal Kingdom incredibly well

I think that some people think so. That's why they would be very happy if it were not built.

 

[PirateFrank]

huh is it a huge mistake? It meshes with Animal Kingdom incredibly well

exactly how?

 

[JustInTime]

exactly how?

I think if somebody has to explain how Pandora fits in Animal Kingdom at this point, then that just shows how little people pay attention.

 

[lebeau]

I think if somebody has to explain how Pandora fits in Animal Kingdom at this point, then that just shows how little people pay attention.

Agreed.

People saying it doesn't fit are just being obtuse.

 

[PirateFrank]

Agreed.

People saying it doesn't fit are just being obtuse.

The opinions on this are deeply divided...and there are plenty of people that don't feel it fits at all. Obtuse? No Your opinion? Yes.

I was very curious to hear how it 'meshes incredibly well'....besides the obvious "big tree" in both AK and the movie...and the question still stands to Captn Neo.

 

[_Scar]

I think Avatarland fits, but it's definitely a stretch. This is coming from a DAK fanboy who gives Disney benefit of the doubt more times than he'd like to admit >.>